Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[JeetKuneDo]

I hate to toot my own horn but well here's what I predicted back in march:

It is quite obviously breaking 850M at this point and even if it might be a stretch I am not entirely rulling 900M out (could pass it by the skin of its teeth). I still cannot wrap my head around the crazy amount of 1B+ predictions this movie received months prior to its release.

Nice.

TDK was a re-expansion. Not a re-release. There is a difference. It was in a single run. July 2008-March 2009. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=darkknight.htm

It got two releases. The 2nd release bumped it just over 1 billion.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=releases&id=darkknight.htm

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...tales-baywatch-box-office-weekend-1202102887/

1.). Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (DIS), 4,276 theaters / $23M Fri. (includes $5.5M previews) /3-day cume: $62.3M/4-day: $76.3M Wk 1

2.). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 3,871 theaters (-476) / $5.3M Fri.(-39%)/3-day cume: $20.4M (-41%) /4-day: $26.6M/ Total: $339.9M / Wk 4

3.). Baywatch (FOX), 3,647 theaters / $6M Fri. / 3-day cume: $17.4M/4-day: $21.5M/Total:$26.1M/ Wk 1 Wednesday bow

 

[Iceman]

Damn, Pirates really isn't a huge franchise domestically any more.

 

[Spiderine]

Pirates have been declining in the states for a while now. Personally Im not a fan of the franchise and have no interest in this one. But its been huge overseas.

 

[TheVileOne]

Pirates' popularity in the US definitely peaked with the second movie.

So Guardians might get a nice boost from the holiday weekend.

 

[StormC]

62M 3 day cume for Pirates? Damn, that's below even my lowest prediction of 70M. How the mighty have fallen.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/pirates...tales-baywatch-box-office-weekend-1202102887/

1). Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (DIS), 4,276 theaters / $23.4M Fri. (includes $5.5M previews) / 3-day cume: $62.7M to $63.7M / 4-day: $76M to $78M / Wk 1

2). The Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 3,871 theaters (-476) / $5.3M Fri.(-39%) / 3-day cume: $20.3M to $20.6M (-41%) / 4-day: $26.5M to $26.8M / Total: $339.9M / Wk 4

3). Baywatch (PAR), 3,647 theaters / $5.7M Fri. / 3-day cume: $16.5M to $17M / 4-day: $20M to $21M / Total: $24.8M to $25.8M / Wk 1 Wednesday bow

4). Alien: Covenant (FOX), 3,772 theaters (+11) / $3M Fri. (-80%) / 3-day cume: $11M (-69%) / 4-day: $13.75M / Total: $60.5M / Wk 2

 

[TheVileOne]

62M 3 day cume for Pirates? Damn, that's below even my lowest prediction of 70M. How the mighty have fallen.

Crazy to think this franchise used to be the hottest thing in town and obliterated Superman a decade ago.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Wow Vol. 2's four day looks to pass Baywatch's five day. Ell oh ell.

 

[ultradog]

I don't concern myself with worldwide numbers because exchange rates are always changing, difficult to compare between years. I like to look only at domestic numbers to track the continued/growing popularity of the MCU.

GotG2 is now pretty closely matching the daily numbers of Age of Ultron. If it matches AoU from here on out, it will finish with $388M. I think it most likely to finish right between $380M and $400M.

Everything else so far this summer is disappointing, so I think it still has a slight outside chance for $400M, if it remains the highest rated blockbuster movie for the summer - mostly pending Wonder Woman reviews due very soon.

Guardians 2 will finish domestically in 8th place on the all-time superhero box office charts, behind Spider Man (2002 - $403M) and ahead of Spider-Man 2 (2004 - $373M).

 

[TheVileOne]

Wow Vol. 2's four day looks to pass Baywatch's five day. Ell oh ell.

The Rock eating these dumb tweets now:

https://***********/TheRock/status/867944206005829632

https://***********/TheRock/status/867945814508933124

 

[TheVileOne]

I don't concern myself with worldwide numbers because exchange rates are always changing, difficult to compare between years. I like to look only at domestic numbers to track the continued/growing popularity of the MCU.

GotG2 is now pretty closely matching the daily numbers of Age of Ultron. If it matches AoU from here on out, it will finish with $388M. I think it most likely to finish right between $380M and $400M.

Everything else so far this summer is disappointing, so I think it still has a slight outside chance for $400M, if it remains the highest rated blockbuster movie for the summer - mostly pending Wonder Woman reviews due very soon.

Guardians 2 will finish domestically in 8th place on the all-time superhero box office charts, behind Spider Man (2002 - $403M) and ahead of Spider-Man 2 (2004 - $373M).

The only other movies I'm really looking at this summer:

Dunkirk
Spider-Man: Homecoming

 

[Blitzkrieg]

GOTG Vol 2:

Dom - 333 Million,
Int'l - 450 million,
WW - 783 million

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Passed the first movie domestically and internationally today. Impressive.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

It'll hit $800M by Wednesday, probably.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Also, Alien: Covenant dropped 71% in its second weekend.

 

[HammerDown]

In comparison domestically GOTG2 is 82M ahead of GOTG in the same number of days.

Top MCU box office

1. Avengers - 1.518B
2. Avengers: AoU - 1.405B
3. Iron Man 3: 1.214B
4. CA: Civil War: 1.153B
5. Guardians of the Galaxy 2: 783M

 

[Flint Marko]

Guardians has officially passed BvS domestically.

 

[GeckoMoria]

How big a chance does it have to pass it worldwide? I really want to be able to use a phrase like "a walking tree and a talking raccoon outgrossed a movie with Batman and Superman".

It's never gonna get old

 

[HammerDown]

Update in the comparison between both Guardians movies and their biggest foreign markets results at this point.

GOTG ------------ // ---------- GOTG 2

Australia - 23M === 22M
Brazil ---- 16M === 19M
China ---- 86M === 94M
France --- 19M === 21M
Germany - 24M === 25M
Mexico ---- 19M === 18M
Russia ----- 23M === 26M
Spain ------ 10M === 9M
South Korea - 9M === 20M
UK --------- 47M === 46M
Japan ----- 9M === 5M

In blue the countries where GOTG2 has performed better. It's basically performing better than GOTG everywhere.

 

[StormC]

How big a chance does it have to pass it worldwide? I really want to be able to use a phrase like "a walking tree and a talking raccoon outgrossed a movie with Batman and Superman".

It's never gonna get old

With current tracking, I don't see it going much past 850 million, but we'll see.

 

[Flint Marko]

How big a chance does it have to pass it worldwide? I really want to be able to use a phrase like "a walking tree and a talking raccoon outgrossed a movie with Batman and Superman".

It's never gonna get old

I don't think it's likely. But passing BvS domestically is a pretty notable achievement in and of itself.

 

[StormC]

I don't think it's likely. But passing BvS domestically is a pretty notable achievement in and of itself.

The first Guardians already did that, anyway.

 

[Flint Marko]

The first Guardians already did that, anyway.

Oh wow, hadn't realized that.

 

[iEquinox]

OS weekend estimate is $8.6M.

That's very close to Doctor Strange, which made 8.94M on its 5th OS weekend (Not counting new markets). Doctor Strange managed to add another 15M in those markets after that.
I don't think Guardians is going to be too far off that. 15M more OS would mean 465M OS total. It could fall just short of that number in the end with Wonder Woman opening next week.

With domestic still on course for about 380M, it still looks like it will end up just below $850M WW.