Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[rashad]

Highest Grossing CBM - Top 20 All-Time

01 - Marvel's The Avengers - $623,357,910
02 - The Dark Knight - $534,858,444
03 - Avengers: Age of Ultron - $459,005,868
04 - The Dark Knight Rises - $448,139,099
05 - Iron Man 3 - $409,013,994
06 - Captain America: Civil War - $408,084,349
07 - Spider-Man - $403,706,375
08 - Spider-Man 2 - $373,585,825
09 - Deadpool - $363,070,709
10 - Spider- Man 3 - $336,530,303
11 - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $333,205,927*
12 - Guardians of the Galaxy - $333,176,600
13 - Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - $330,360,194
14 - Suicide Squad - $325,100,054
15 - Iron Man - $318,412,101
16 - Iron Man 2 - $312,433,331
17 - Man of Steel - $291,045,518
18 - The Amazing Spider-Man - $262,030,663
19 - Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $259,766,572
20 - Batman '89 - $251,188,924

*Still in theaters

 

[StormC]

Wow, I had no idea Spider-Man 3 performed the worst domestically when it has the highest overall box office of its trilogy. The international market had really blown up since then, I guess.

 

[Timebomb]

Whats impressive is that it almost beat an Aliens movie on its 3rd weekend and beats that same movie on the 4th as well as a new Rock comedy, coming in second to a Pirates new release. That's pretty impressive to me.

 

[ultradog]

Assuming GotG2 finishes with roughly $385M domestic and $465M foreign, as current tracking indicates, the Guardians have taken a very healthy jump in popularity domestically. Foreign, not so much. Compare Civil War from last May, $408M domestic (about 5% ahead of GotG2), $745M foreign (60% ahead of GotG2). I believe the US dollar was about 10% stronger this year over last, so that only explains a small part of it.

The US quickly fell in love with the recently unknown Guardians and made them a top level name. What's the problem with the rest of the world? Do franchises take more time and sequels to build up overseas than they do in the US? Or do the Guardians just not translate as well as other franchises, due perhaps to the humor?

 

[StormC]

Or do the Guardians just not translate as well as other franchises, due perhaps to the humor?

This is what I was saying earlier in this thread. It's impossible to overlook how much of the humor would be lost on foreign audiences, making these movies feel more like generic colorful space opera with the Marvel logo slapped on it.

 

[TheVileOne]

Assuming GotG2 finishes with roughly $385M domestic and $465M foreign, as current tracking indicates, the Guardians have taken a very healthy jump in popularity domestically. Foreign, not so much. Compare Civil War from last May, $408M domestic (about 5% ahead of GotG2), $745M foreign (60% ahead of GotG2). I believe the US dollar was about 10% stronger this year over last, so that only explains a small part of it.

The US quickly fell in love with the recently unknown Guardians and made them a top level name. What's the problem with the rest of the world? Do franchises take more time and sequels to build up overseas than they do in the US? Or do the Guardians just not translate as well as other franchises, due perhaps to the humor?

Higher domestic gross is better than higher foreign gross. Hollywood studios get a better money split of domestic theaters.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I really hope Guardians can claw its way to 400 domestic. That would be insane. I know, I know, competition and Wonder Woman is coming this week but I still don't think it will crumble THAT much.

 

[iEquinox]

They updated the weekend estimate up to $20,641,000. (It was $19,890,000 yesterday)

Not sure why the monday estimate is $4,512,000 (according to boxofficemojo) for a 4-day weekend of $25,153,000. That would be a 40% monday drop, which is a lot for memorial day.

For comparison, out of all 8 previous MCU movies that were in release on memorial day, the 3 biggest monday drops were Thor (-25.3%), Iron Man 2(-21.1%), and Iron Man(-20.4%). All 5 other MCU movies dropped less than 20% on memorial day.

So I have no idea why they would think GotG would drop 40% on memorial day.

 

[ultradog]

They updated the weekend estimate up to $20,641,000. (It was $19,890,000 yesterday)

Not sure why the monday estimate is $4,512,000 (according to boxofficemojo) for a 4-day weekend of $25,153,000. That would be a 40% monday drop, which is a lot for memorial day.

For comparison, out of all 8 previous MCU movies that were in release on memorial day, the 3 biggest monday drops were Thor (-25.3%), Iron Man 2(-21.1%), and Iron Man(-20.4%). All 5 other MCU movies dropped less than 20% on memorial day.

So I have no idea why they would think GotG would drop 40% on memorial day.

I was just going to say the same thing. Yesterday they underestimated Sunday badly, I thought they would need to raise it as they just did. Now they are seriously underestimating Monday even worse, for whatever reason - probably the same stupid reason they used yesterday. I think Monday will be about $6M and the total will be very near $340.

 

[iEquinox]

OS weekend actual is up to 9.3M from the 8.6M estimate.
OS total is now at 451.1, about 1M up from estimates.

Still expecting about 465M in the end. Next weekend Wonder Woman is opening in most markets. Next weekend's number should tell a lot about where it will end up exactly. The 3.5M OS weekend by Doctor Strange is a good target to aim for.

I was just going to say the same thing. Yesterday they underestimated Sunday badly, I thought they would need to raise it as they just did. Now they are seriously underestimating Monday even worse, for whatever reason - probably the same stupid reason they used yesterday. I think Monday will be about $6M and the total will be very near $340.

Deadline seems to have a similar idea:

Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 (DIS), 3,871 theaters (-476) / $5.3M Fri.(-39%) / $7.8M Sat. / $7.5M Sun. / $4.5M Mon. to $6M / 3-day cume: $20.6M (-43%) / 4-day: $25M to $27M

 

[jr24tw]

This is what I was saying earlier in this thread. It's impossible to overlook how much of the humor would be lost on foreign audiences, making these movies feel more like generic colorful space opera with the Marvel logo slapped on it.

This mostly happens in countries where movies get dubbed. The humor doesn't translate. Which is why American sitcoms also don't work. I should know as everything gets dubbed in my country and it simply doesn't work.

 

[Hammer!]

1 billion is out of the question now, it would appear. 900 million seems likely. People, definitely including myself here, need to stop expecting extravagant Iron Man 3 increases for these MCU sequels.

So Guardians is pretty much the second biggest superhero team cinematically speaking. X-Men films are lucky to cross $600 million WW, both Guardians have grossed more than the highest grossing X-Men film. We'll see if they're more of a draw than the JL, but that film probably needs to have really good reviews for them to pass either Guardians movie domestically, which is possible but probably unlikely. Pretty remarkable given the state of the IP three years ago.

 

[ultradog]

1 billion is out of the question now, it would appear. 900 million seems likely. People, definitely including myself here, need to stop expecting extravagant Iron Man 3 increases for these MCU sequels.

So Guardians is pretty much the second biggest superhero team cinematically speaking. X-Men films are lucky to cross $600 million WW, both Guardians have grossed more than the highest grossing X-Men film. We'll see if they're more of a draw than the JL, but that film probably needs to have really good reviews for them to pass either Guardians movie domestically, which is possible but probably unlikely. Pretty remarkable given the state of the IP three years ago.

$900M is also very unlikely, it looks like $850M is a good target right now - $385M domestic and $465M foreign.

I think JL will do less than Guardians domestically, but more worldwide.

 

[Hammer!]

$900M is also very unlikely, it looks like $850M is a good target right now - $385M domestic and $465M foreign.

I think JL will do less than Guardians domestically, but more worldwide.

It's gunna be at $800 after today. It definitively can squeeze out $100 million more. Whether it will though, is another question. The first Guardians made 80 million after it's first four weeks, and now schools are off. It will have to rely on Pirates, Wondy, and a few others perhaps not having much it terms of legs, but I think it has a shot.

 

[Tymminator]

edited after some thought.

 

[iEquinox]

It's gunna be at $800 after today. It definitively can squeeze out $100 million more. Whether it will though, is another question. The first Guardians made 80 million after it's first four weeks, and now schools are off. It will have to rely on Pirates, Wondy, and a few others perhaps not having much it terms of legs, but I think it has a shot.

It'll be at 785M WW after sunday. It won't make 15M on monday, so it won't be at $800M after today.
$900M WW is pretty much off the table. It has about 15M OS and 45-50M DOM left after sunday.

It won't be able to make as much as the first one did from this point forward. The first one made 17M on its 5th weekend. GotG2 would be lucky to make 10M on its 5th weekend(next weekend). Meanwhile the first one made 10M+ on its 6th weekend too.

Even if you take a very optimistic approach, 25M OS and 65M DOM would give it 885M WW, which would be the best case scenario. $900M WW is not happening. I guarantee it.

 

[ultradog]

It's gunna be at $800 after today. It definitively can squeeze out $100 million more. Whether it will though, is another question. The first Guardians made 80 million after it's first four weeks, and now schools are off. It will have to rely on Pirates, Wondy, and a few others perhaps not having much it terms of legs, but I think it has a shot.

It will be $790M after today. You can not compare the initial Guardians, a surprise hit, released in August with no competition, to this more highly anticipated, heavily front loaded May sequel. Internationally it is close to being done, domestically it will have to match Age of Ultron numbers from here on out to reach $385M, which it just might. If it is shows exceptional legs against poor competition it just might crawl to $400M.

I have to agree.

Even just looking at the Domestic, I can't see it crashing at 385, it's really not to far from that now.

No, 385 would not be crashing at all, it would actually be very good from this point. The closest and best comparing daily numbers to Guardians dailies right now is Age Of Ultron, also a first week of May release, and that suggests $385M. That should not be disappointing to anyone - in fact it's overly optimistic to expect it to do better than AoU at this point.

 

[Hammer!]

It's twelve million under $800 million, and it's memorial day - it's getting 5 or 6 Mill domestic today by all reports. If it doesn't get to 800 by tonight WW which by all accounts it will or come damn close, it'll get there by tomorrow. At this time in Guardians 1's run, school was back in session and it still was one of the more leggy Marvel titles. School is just getting out this go around, even with more competition the heavier weekdays could easily get it to the same $80 million more Guards 1 made after it's first four weeks.

The film has outgrossed the original in 4 weeks, and the first was in theatres for 20+ weeks. That plus the extra buzz that the ride is generating, and it's ability to hold it's own against Alien and Pirates weeks out, it could still make $900 million for sure. Not saying it's a given, or necessarily likely, but it's gunna come closer to 900 than 850 and it's got a good chance at the former. Age of Ultron made 50 million more after its fourth weekend domestically, and that movie wasn't particularly leggy.

 

[ultradog]

It's twelve million under $800 million, and it's memorial day - it's getting 5 or 6 Mill domestic today by all reports. If it doesn't get to 800 by tonight WW which by all accounts it will or come damn close, it'll get there by tomorrow. At this time in Guardians 1's run, school was back in session and it still was one of the more leggy Marvel titles. School is just getting out this go around, even with more competition the heavier weekdays could easily get it to the same $80 million more Guards 1 made after it's first four weeks.

The film has outgrossed the original in 4 weeks, and the first was in theatres for 20+ weeks. That plus the extra buzz that the ride is generating, and it's ability to hold it's own against Alien and Pirates weeks out, it could still make $900 million for sure. Not saying it's a given, or necessarily likely, but it's gunna come closer to 900 than 850 and it's got a good chance at the former. Age of Ultron made 50 million more after its fourth weekend domestically, and that movie wasn't particularly leggy.

Well, let's just say I think you're wrong, and your comparisons of this sequel to Guardians 1, and wishful thinking, just won't work. Age Of Ultron dailies from here on out are what you should be using for comparison. We'll see in a few weeks.

 

[Hammer!]

Well, let's just say I think you're wrong, and your comparisons of this sequel to Guardians 1, and wishful thinking, just won't work. Age Of Ultron dailies from here on out are what you should be using for comparison. We'll see in a few weeks.

Age of Ultron made $50 million more domestically after it's fourth week. I was clear to use it as an example. And you said GotG2 would be at 790 million by end of tonight, when it was at 788 million last night, so I'm a little confused at your math given that Memorial day estimates domestically are 5-6 million and ten million WW for the day. For the record I think 875-885 is the likely scenario, with a fighting chance at 900. $850 million is a lock, even with the film leaving international markets soon. We shall see indeed.

 

[iEquinox]

It's twelve million under $800 million, and it's memorial day - it's getting 5 or 6 Mill domestic today by all reports. If it doesn't get to 800 by tonight WW, it'll get there by tomorrow. At this time in Guardians 1's run, school was back in session and it still was one of the more leggy Marvel titles. School is just getting out this go around, even with more competition the heavier weekdays could easily get it to the same $80 million more Guards 1 made after it's first four weeks.

The film has outgrossed the original in 4 weeks, and the first was in theatres for 20+ weeks. That plus the extra buzz that the ride is generating, and it's ability to hold it's own against Alien and Pirates weeks out, it could still make $900 million for sure. Not saying it's a given, or necessarily likely, but it's gunna come closer to 900 than 850 and it's got a good chance at the former.

If it makes $80M more after its 25th day(memorial day), like the first guardians did(So a 420M+ domestic total), I will literally eat my shoes and send you the video.

It won't reach 800M WW by tomorrow either btw. 6M monday + 4M Tuesday (extremely optimistic) would get it to 795M WW. It won't even get close to 5M OS on monday + tuesday. Not after a 9M weekend, and no OS holiday to help it. So unless the weekend estimate is wayyy off, it won't get to $800M by tomorrow either. And not the day after tomorrow either.

Guardians 1 is a horrible comparison. Do you really think GotG2 can make 17M+ next weekend? An 18% drop after a holiday weekend and with strong direct competition opening against it? That's asking for a miracle. You should try finding a reasonable movie to compare it to. You'll notice how your predictions will become more accurate. You're literally the only person on the internet I've seen who thinks GotG2 can still do 420M+. Just take a look at the weekend numbers the 1st one did. 8M+ on it's 7th weekend?? GotG2 will be lucky if it makes even half that.

Age of Ultron made $50 million more domestically after it's fourth week. I was clear to use it as an example. And you said GotG2 would be at 790 million by end of tonight, when it was at 788 million last night, so I'm a little confused at your math given that Memorial day estimates domestically are 5-6 million and ten million WW for the day. For the record I think 875-885 is the likely scenario, with a fighting chance at 900. $850 million is a lock, even with the film leaving international markets soon. We shall see indeed.

The 788M total includes the 4.5M domestic memorial day estimate. Also, where are you getting "10M WW for the day" from? Because that's not happening

 

[Hammer!]

If it makes $80M more after its 25th day(memorial day), like the first guardians did(So a 420M+ domestic total), I will literally eat my shoes and send you the video.

It won't reach 800M WW by tomorrow either btw. 6M monday + 4M Tuesday (extremely optimistic) would get it to 795M WW. It won't even get close to 5M OS on monday + tuesday. Not after a 9M weekend, and no OS holiday to help it. So unless the weekend estimate is wayyy off, it won't get to $800M by tomorrow either. And not the day after tomorrow either.

Guardians 1 is a horrible comparison. Do you really think GotG2 can make 17M+ next weekend? An 18% drop after a holiday weekend and with strong direct competition opening against it? That's asking for a miracle. You should try finding a reasonable movie to compare it to. You'll notice how your predictions will become more accurate. You're literally the only person on the internet I've seen who thinks GotG2 can still do 420M+. Just take a look at the weekend numbers the 1st one did. 8M+ on it's 7th weekend?? GotG2 will be lucky if it makes even half that.


The 788M total includes the 4.5M domestic memorial day estimate. Also, where are you getting "10M WW for the day" from? Because that's not happening

I never said it was making 420 million domestic. I'm saying it's going to sneak past 400 million, or come up just short. Guardians 1 after day 25 was weekend heavy given that school was in session at that point, so while the weekend numbers won't be nearly as high, the weekday numbers are going to be higher. 90% of the comparisons I've been making are with Ultron, so stop insinuating that I'm using Guards 1 as the primary comparison when I'm clearly not. Also, why can you use the first Guards in predicting the performance of Guards 2 from this point out as you did in this post, but I can't? I've been saying the film has $50 million left in the tank domestically, which is the same as Ultron, the film I've been comparing it to despite you keep telling me I'm not. This film should be considerably leggier than that film as well given the ride, better reviews, and Wonder Woman ain't going to perform like Jurassic World.

So for the record, you really think this film won't cross $800 mill WW until minimum Thurs? And you think $850 million is the likely final landing spot?

 

[iEquinox]

I usually don't break up posts like this, but since there's so many seperate things I want to adress, I'll make an exception.

I never said it was making 420 million domestic. I'm saying it's going to sneak past 400 million, or come up just short.

But you just said this in an earlier post:

School is just getting out this go around, even with more competition the heavier weekdays could easily get it to the same $80 million more Guards 1 made after it's first four weeks.

That's you saying it will easily pass 415M domestically. So I don't know why you've now suddenly changed that to barely making it to 400M?

90% of the comparisons I've been making are with Ultron, so stop insinuating that I'm using Guards 1 as the primary comparison when I'm clearly not.

In your initial post, you compared it to GotG 1 without mentioning Ultron at all. You've literally only mentioned Ultron twice in this thread before this post. That's not 90% of your comparisons.

Also, why can you use the first Guards in predicting the performance of Guards 2 from this point out as you did in this post, but I can't?

I am not predicting the performance of GotG2 using GotG1 as a comparison. I am predicting GotG2's performance(using multiple other comparisons), and comparing the results to GotG1's performance to show how big the difference is.

So for the record, you really think this film won't cross $800 mill WW until minimum Thurs? And you think $850 million is the likely final landing spot?

Yes. And you're really expecting it to make 4M+ overseas on monday? You expect it to make more on a non-holiday monday than it did on the previous sunday, saturday and friday?? How?

 

[Hammer!]

I usually don't break up posts like this, but since there's so many seperate things I want to adress, I'll make an exception.


But you just said this in an earlier post:

That's you saying it will easily pass 415M domestically. So I don't know why you've now suddenly changed that to barely making it to 400M?


In your initial post, you compared it to GotG 1 without mentioning Ultron at all. You've literally only mentioned Ultron twice in this thread before this post. That's not 90% of your comparisons.


I am not predicting the performance of GotG2 using GotG1 as a comparison. I am predicting GotG2's performance(using multiple other comparisons), and comparing the results to GotG1's performance to show how big the difference is.


Yes. And you're really expecting it to make 4M+ overseas on monday? You expect it to make more on a non-holiday monday than it did on the previous sunday, saturday and friday?? How?

You're putting a lot of words in my mouths, so I think from this point we'll just play the wait-and-see.

 

[iEquinox]

You're putting a lot of words in my mouths, so I think from this point we'll just play the wait-and-see.

I didn't put words in your mouth once in that post. Everything I said was true. If you don't have a response to any of my other points, that's fine, we can ignore them, but I'm still curious where you got this from:

Memorial day estimates domestically are 5-6 million and ten million WW for the day.

You said here that estimates for overseas gross are 4-5M for monday, correct? I don't see how anyone could interpret it any other way. So where did you get that number from?