Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[HammerDown]

I predicted/hoped it was going to reach 1B. It looks more and more likely to be around the 900M mark. That's not a disappointment at all. One thing is to be disappointed that it wouldn't met your own expectations and that can be understandable but now saying/implying that a 900M+ GOTG movie on a 200M budget is a disapointment...

 

[Flint Marko]

One thing is to be disappointed that it wouldn't met your own expectations and that can be understandable but now saying/implying that a 900M+ GOTG movie on a 200M budget is a disapointment...

Oh yeah, I forget the budget was "just" $200 million. That's 30-50 million less than a lot of other superhero films.

I'm positive this will be a disappointment from what they were projecting with it.

Nope, it certainly will not.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...s-of-the-galaxy-vol-2-fails-to-top-1-billion/

 

[Mike Steele]

If GOTG2 hits $900M - would that equate to about $1B if using the same exchange rates in place when GOTG was released? From what I've read (and I could be mistaken), GOTG2 not hitting $1B might have more to do with changing exchange rates than the amount of tickets it sold.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If GOTG2 hits $900M - would that equate to about $1B if using the same exchange rates in place when GOTG was released? From what I've read (and I could be mistaken), GOTG2 not hitting $1B might have more to do with changing exchange rates than the amount of tickets it sold.

Yeah, 2 would have about $90-100 million more OS at 2014 exchange rates.

 

[B]

'Disappointing' is a very questionable term to use for a movie that has made 4x it's budget..

The only way this could be seen as a disappointment is if you as an individual or as part of a group, convinced yourselves it was guaranteed to make a certain amount of money.

 

[Zarex]

If a film earns enough at the BO to warrant a comparably budgeted sequel, the film was a success. Any other conclusion is fanboy di** measuring.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's already surpassed what Civil Domestocally War did for the same weekend, and near what Ultron did. If it paces out like Ultron did it would put it at 385, but there's a good chance it could bypass way Ultron did over memorial day so 400 is still in the playbook.

 

[Flint Marko]

Yeah, 2 would have about $90-100 million more OS at 2014 exchange rates.

Holy ****, is that real? That's a very significant amount of money.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Holy ****, is that real? That's a very significant amount of money.

It might be a bit lower, like $80 million, cause my math skills suck, but yeah any way you look at it, it's a big chunk of change.

 

[iEquinox]

Holy ****, is that real? That's a very significant amount of money.

Yep, GotG2 would already have passed 525M OS (Instead of 430.8M) if exchange rates hadn't changed since GotG came out. It would have about 95m extra by now.

Deadline says it here:

At the international box office, it recorded another $28M this weekend to take the total to $430.8M. It is now 19% ahead of the entire previous offshore run of GOTG at today’s FX rates.

GotG's 440M OS would have been about 360M today.

 

[StormC]

It's looking like Alien won the overall "weekend" with a stronger Thursday/Friday... but GOTG actually had the stronger Saturday/Sunday. That's pretty sad on Alien's part.

 

[iEquinox]

OS numbers have been updated with actuals. Looks like the weekday estimates were way off: It made over 19.5M on Monday-Thursday, and it was estimated to be under 17.5M.

$28,073,848 OS this weekend, more than Doctor Strange (26.4M) made on it's 4th OS weekend. However, DS was hit hard this weekend OS by Fantastic Beasts. On its 5th weekend, DS made 8.94M (Not counting new markets). It will be interesting to see if GotG2 can match that with PotC opening this week in pretty much all OS markets. If it does, and GotG2 has the same legs DS did, it would end with 465M OS.

It definitely has a chance to match DS's 8.94M next weekend, but it will get hit hard again the weekend after, when it ends its run in China, and Wonder Woman comes out in nearly all markets. On the other hand, a bigger percentage of DS's gross came from China, which shortened its OS legs. So there's a decent chance GotG2 could still match DS's OS numbers and end with 465M OS, despite the heavy competition in the next 2 weekends.

I'm still going with 380M domestic, so that would make for a total of 845M WW. If it manages slightly better legs either OS or domestically it may still reach 850M WW. It all depends on how well it deals with PotC and Wonder Woman.

 

[Iceman]

$380mish sounds about right.

 

[iEquinox]

It's looking like Alien won the overall "weekend" with a stronger Thursday/Friday... but GOTG actually had the stronger Saturday/Sunday. That's pretty sad on Alien's part.

That was to be expected though, opening weekends are always much more frontloaded than holdover weekends. Saturdays are usually down from opening friday/thursdays, while holdovers usually have 60%+ increases from fridays. On weekends this close, the opening movie will have lower saturday/sunday numbers than the holdover 99% of the time.

 

[StormC]

That was to be expected though, opening weekends are always much more frontloaded than holdover weekends. Saturdays are usually down from opening friday/thursdays, while holdovers usually have 60%+ increases from fridays. On weekends this close, the opening movie will have lower saturday/sunday numbers than the holdover 99% of the time.

That's my point though. A new Alien movie by Ridley Scott should not be "close" in box office to the third weekend of a previous movie. It had an especially massive Friday to Saturday/Sunday dropoff, indicating that Alien wasn't what it should have been.

 

[iEquinox]

That's my point though. A new Alien movie by Ridley Scott should not be "close" in box office to the third weekend of a previous movie. It had an especially massive Friday to Saturday/Sunday dropoff, indicating that Alien wasn't what it should have been.

Even with a good internal multiplier it would have gotten beat by GotG2's sunday. But yeah if you asked me last week, also wouldn't have expected Alien to open to only 36M.

Good thing they lowered the budget: The budget is 75% of Prometheus, while the opening weekend is 70% of Prometheus. So it's not a disaster it made significantly less, it should still be fine financially, even if makes less than they were hoping for.

 

[Iceman]

Unfortunately I don't think Alien films are a big deal any more, especially to younger viewers who didn't grow up with the classic first 2 films.

 

[iEquinox]

$34,653,754 this weekend for Guardians, down 400k from estimates.

$301,391,228 Domestic.
$431,468,795 OS
$732,860,023 WW

Alien's number is not in yet

 

[Erzengel]

OS numbers have been updated with actuals. Looks like the weekday estimates were way off: It made over 19.5M on Monday-Thursday, and it was estimated to be under 17.5M.

$28,073,848 OS this weekend, more than Doctor Strange (26.4M) made on it's 4th OS weekend. However, DS was hit hard this weekend OS by Fantastic Beasts. On its 5th weekend, DS made 8.94M (Not counting new markets). It will be interesting to see if GotG2 can match that with PotC opening this week in pretty much all OS markets. If it does, and GotG2 has the same legs DS did, it would end with 465M OS.

It definitely has a chance to match DS's 8.94M next weekend, but it will get hit hard again the weekend after, when it ends its run in China, and Wonder Woman comes out in nearly all markets. On the other hand, a bigger percentage of DS's gross came from China, which shortened its OS legs. So there's a decent chance GotG2 could still match DS's OS numbers and end with 465M OS, despite the heavy competition in the next 2 weekends.

I'm still going with 380M domestic, so that would make for a total of 845M WW. If it manages slightly better legs either OS or domestically it may still reach 850M WW. It all depends on how well it deals with PotC and Wonder Woman.

It'll get a slight boost on Memorial Day maybe ($22-24M, Fri-Mon day weekend) allowing it to get closer to the $850M when all is said and done.

 

[iEquinox]

It'll get a slight boost on Memorial Day maybe ($22-24M, 3 day weekend) allowing it to get closer to the $850M when all is said and done.

I was strictly talking about the OS weekend. Memorial Day is only a US holiday so that wont affect the OS weekend.

I also wouldn't expect 22M next weekend domesticaly, even AoU didn't get to 22M on memorial day weekend, despite having nearly 39M on it's 3rd weekend and having less competition on memorial day weekend. 19-20M is roughly what I'd expect.

 

[Iceman]

$34,653,754 this weekend for Guardians, down 400k from estimates.

$301,391,228 Domestic.
$431,468,795 OS
$732,860,023 WW

Alien's number is not in yet

Cool, decent number. The film has done well on weekend drops so far.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

So is 900m a lock at this point? 850?

 

[iEquinox]

So is 900m a lock at this point? 850?

Neither is a lock, reaching 850M is still possible.

 

[Erzengel]

Cool, decent number. The film has done well on weekend drops so far.

It's interesting, the May 2016 and 2017 movies outside of the MCU movies have been "tepid". Pirates withstanding for the moment.

May 2018 will definitely be different considering Avengers 3 and Han Solo bookend that month.

 

[Iceman]

It's interesting, the May 2016 and 2017 movies outside of the MCU movies have been "tepid". Pirates withstanding for the moment.

May 2018 will definitely be different considering Avengers 3 and Han Solo bookend that month.

Yeah the other films have been disappointments at the box office and there's no way Han Solo will suffer that fate. I have no idea what Pirates will do domestically (international numbers I expect to be fine). Is there much interest?