Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Blitzkrieg]

That's a decent drop for this particular weekend in comparison to the first GOTG which did 17M. GOTG2 is still 80M ahead in total though.

IIRC, the 4th weekend for GOTG was a holiday weekend and it made around 17 million in the previous weekend which means it barely dropped in the DOM BO. That was fantastic for GOTG.

 

[Grootster]

Not likely on either count but it has a chance of being the highest for the summer will see how Spidey does. Still its a huge success for marvel.

Oh definitely. The first Guardians became a huge pop-culture phenomenon overnight, whereas a lot of people seem to be fatigued from Spider-man movies, so I could see Guardians making more. Of course Spidey looks great to me, so I'll be happy for Marvel either way. I doubt either one will beat Star Wars in December, but I'm really, really hoping Guardians will beat Transformers.

 

[Ozbridge]

Talking about the summer box office crown what about DM3? You guys think it can't get over 860M? Both previous films in the franchise made at least 970M, even if the new one has a lackluster 250M domestic I think it can still easily make 650M+ overseas.

 

[Erzengel]

A little over $5M away from surpassing Spider-Man for all time ww grossing CBM.

 

[Darepool]

I saw it for the fifth and final time yesterday (in the theater). Simply incredible, Gunn is an artist working in blockbusters, simple as that. Pretty much on lockdown now until July.

 

[iEquinox]

It held on very well OS, $5,098,699 this weekend (down only 46.5% from last weekend). If it follows DS multiplier from this point forward that would get it to 472.9M OS.

It should at least get to 470M now. Don't think it can get past 475M though. Anyways that's a only a $5M range, I'm pretty confident that it will end up somewhere in that range.

 

[iEquinox]

The weekend actuals are in, it made $9,839,370 domestically this weekend.

Now it has faced it's toughest competition it is easier to predict where it could end up.

This is where it would end up if it has the same multiplier on this weekend as these movies:
Civil War: 379,339,665
Iron Man 3: 383,349,340
Age of Ultron: 382,725,774
Iron Man: 386,277,372
Guardians of the Galaxy: $388,871,771
The Avengers: $389,396,548

Since it has displayed better legs than CW, IM3 and AoU I think it should end above $382.7M
I'm not expecting late legs as strong as the Avengers, so I don't expect it to reach $390M. (IM, GotG and The Avengers all showed better legs up to this point)

So I'm expecting it to end with about $385M domestically.

Add the 470-475M OS I predicted in my previous post, and that puts it at 855-860M WW in the end.

 

[HammerDown]

Update in the comparison between both Guardians movies and their biggest foreign markets results at this point.

GOTG ------------ // ---------- GOTG 2

Australia - 23M === 23M
Brazil ---- 16M === 20M
China ---- 86M === 100M
France --- 19M === 22M
Germany - 24M === 27M
Mexico ---- 19M === 18M
Russia ----- 23M === 27M
Spain ------ 10M === 9M
South Korea - 9M === 20M
UK --------- 47M === 48M
Japan ----- 9M === 7M

Btw... 100M in China.

 

[iEquinox]

Update in the comparison between both Guardians movies and their biggest foreign markets results at this point.

GOTG ------------ // ---------- GOTG 2

Australia - 23M === 23M
Brazil ---- 16M === 20M
China ---- 86M === 100M
France --- 19M === 22M
Germany - 24M === 27M
Mexico ---- 19M === 18M
Russia ----- 23M === 27M
Spain ------ 10M === 9M
South Korea - 9M === 20M
UK --------- 47M === 48M
Japan ----- 9M === 7M

Btw... 100M in China.

Seems like something weird is going on with boxofficemojo's China numbers.

They said it made $353,380 in China last weekend, and has made $2M in the 7 days after that.
But according to them it only made $88,546 this weekend.
So they're saying it made $1,912,501 on monday-thursday?

They must have made a mistake somewhere, since that shouldn't be possible.

EDIT: Just did some research, and the chinese website for box office has the right numbers (piaofang.maoyan.com)
The weekend numbers boxofficemojo has are correct, but they messed up with the total after last weekend.
They say it was at $98.7M while it was actually at $100.2M. Mystery solved :P

So it already hit $100M last weekend, but we didn't know it because boxofficemojo messed up their China total.
Anyways that's a great milestone to hit.

EDIT2: Looking more closely that might not be the full story. The exchange rate for yuan to usd has changed slightly since last week. With the exchange rates from last week, the 685M yuan GotG2 made was worth less than $100M.
But exchange rates have changed slightly since last week, and now 685M yuan is worth more than $100M.

So I guess boxofficemojo just used the most recent exchange rate to transfer GotG2's total in yuan to USD, instead of taking the varying exchange rates into account. So that's why it's now suddenly over $100M.

This can also be a pitfall when calculating the exact multiplier a movie got in China. You have to calculate them using local currency if you want your results to be 100% accurate. For example GotG2 got a 2.04 multiplier in China. But if you use boxofficemojo's numbers you get 2.07, because they took the 685M yuan GotG2 made in total - which includes what it made on opening weekend - but didn't change the actual opening weekend number accordingly...

 

[ultradog]

This Saturday, GotG2 will pass Deadpool domestically, and move into 9th place on the all-time domestic CBM list. A week later, it will pass Spider-Man 2 and move into 8th place, where it will remain until another movie comes along and beats it.

I am thinking GotG2 will be the highest grossing CBM domestically this year, although worldwide, it won't be the highest. It will stay in 8th place until IW comes out next May.

 

[seriesofdreams]

The movie has been a tremendous success. I still get the feeling that there's a sort of disappointment. Why??? This is only because numerous posters had their heads a little too high in the clouds and didn't set a realistic bar for this film.

We have 1) good to very good critical reviews 2) and nearly $850m at the BO

All very good stuff. It's going to be a very good year for CBM's if the trend continues with the likes of Logan, GOTG2 and WW. I'm looking forward to Spidey although I'm not sure what kind of damage has been done by Sony. Civil War is an outlier there. It will be interesting to see and we know at least it will be a financial success. Thor: Ragnorak looks like a definite improvement over TDW and I feel could top $800m if the quality and WOM is there.

Point is, there is good reason for all to be happy unless you didn't like the movie period. I, for one, thought it was a step below the first flick, but am overall content and happy with what it's been able to rake in.

 

[StormC]

I think a lot of MCU fans wanted to "prove" that the franchise didn't need RDJ/Avengers to hit a billion, so they tried to stretch plausibility to create a narrative where GOTG2 "should" have gotten a billion, or whatever, despite a 200M+ jump between sequels being nearly unheard of without outside factors.

My guess is Ragnarok and Homecoming will both hover around 700-800M and JL could sniff a billion if it's a crowd-pleaser. If it has similarish reception to MOS/BVS, probably 600M range.

 

[Darepool]

If Spidey can get going he'll be hitting a billion with future films.

 

[TheVileOne]

The movie has been a tremendous success. I still get the feeling that there's a sort of disappointment. Why??? This is only because numerous posters had their heads a little too high in the clouds and didn't set a realistic bar for this film.

We have 1) good to very good critical reviews 2) and nearly $850m at the BO

All very good stuff. It's going to be a very good year for CBM's if the trend continues with the likes of Logan, GOTG2 and WW. I'm looking forward to Spidey although I'm not sure what kind of damage has been done by Sony. Civil War is an outlier there. It will be interesting to see and we know at least it will be a financial success. Thor: Ragnorak looks like a definite improvement over TDW and I feel could top $800m if the quality and WOM is there.

Point is, there is good reason for all to be happy unless you didn't like the movie period. I, for one, thought it was a step below the first flick, but am overall content and happy with what it's been able to rake in.

I think the first movie was so well received and took many by surprise, they expected it to be way bigger. Even though it's surpassed the original domestic and worldwide at the box office.

 

[seriesofdreams]

I think a lot of MCU fans wanted to "prove" that the franchise didn't need RDJ/Avengers to hit a billion, so they tried to stretch plausibility to create a narrative where GOTG2 "should" have gotten a billion, or whatever, despite a 200M+ jump between sequels being nearly unheard of without outside factors.

My guess is Ragnarok and Homecoming will both hover around 700-800M and JL could sniff a billion if it's a crowd-pleaser. If it has similarish reception to MOS/BVS, probably 600M range.

I can understand that, but there's nothing to prove, really. The first film while connected to MCU can be seen as an outlier as I think it developed it's own fans and base. It's anecdotal, but I have friends and co-workers who liked GOTG but don't necessarily like or follow all of the MCU. I guess the point is to keep measured expectations. I caught a little too caught up with Civil War last year eclipsing and AOU's mark and I've learned since.

If Spidey can get going he'll be hitting a billion with future films.

If the quality is there then I think the potential is there. All we have to do is go back and look at the original trilogy grosses. It would have been great had there been more of a break in-between ASM/ASM2 and Civil War. At this point I'd rather retcon ASM and have nearly 9-10 years of build. If that were the case, then billion would practically be a slam dunk.

I think the first movie was so well received and took many by surprised, they expected it to be way bigger. Even though it's surpassed the original domestic and worldwide at the box office.

I agree with the former, but taken into context....that doesn't make sense, at least to me. It was a phenomenon on many levels and still is. I see it cracking $375m-$380m domestic. Hopefully it will have a shot at $850m WW but I'll leave that to the better number crunchers of these forums.

 

[kguillou]

I'll be completely honest, I thought for sure this was crossing a billion for one reason: Baby Groot. From the trailers it looked like this movie was hitting that family demographic hard and I thought Baby Groot would be a phenomenon with kids.

Much to my pleasant surprise Groot didnt dominate the actual film. But anyway, the numbers its doing are very very good and the movie deserves it, but I did think that kids were gonna turn out in droves to see this over and over and over.

 

[ultradog]

I'll be completely honest, I thought for sure this was crossing a billion for one reason: Baby Groot. From the trailers it looked like this movie was hitting that family demographic hard and I thought Baby Groot would be a phenomenon with kids.

Much to my pleasant surprise Groot didnt dominate the actual film. But anyway, the numbers its doing are very very good and the movie deserves it, but I did think that kids were gonna turn out in droves to see this over and over and over.

I felt exactly the same way. Because of Baby Groot I thought it would outperform Civil War, which did reach $1B. It will end up pretty close to Civil War domestically, only about 5% short, but a lot less close worldwide, because 1: The dollar is about 10% stronger this year than last, and 2: I think the Guardians humor just doesn't translate as well in foreign markets.

 

[seriesofdreams]

I felt exactly the same way. Because of Baby Groot I thought it would outperform Civil War, which did reach $1B. It will end up pretty close to Civil War domestically, only about 5% short, but a lot less close worldwide, because 1: The dollar is about 10% stronger this year than last, and 2: I think the Guardians humor just doesn't translate as well in foreign markets.

I think the latter 2 reasons you outlined are the real reason for this. Baby Groot did just fine to sell the movie and but ultimately sold a lot of merch. If the movie were as strong as the first, I think we'd see it flying by the $900m mark and $400m DOM, but still, not necessarily the WW figure. It's very impressive that it's done this well when you compare to Winter Soldier or Thor 2.

To the number crunchers: We're looking at $360m going into this weekend, do you think we're a lock for $380m?

 

[StormC]

I think the best MCU sequel to compare this to in terms of performance is Iron Man 2, which is similar in that IM2 didn't have a special Avengers boost (while GOTG3 will undoubtedly get a boost from IW). Percentage-wise, they had similar growth in their box office (IM2 had a 6% boost, if GOTG2 gets to 850M that's a 9% boost). Both movies were sequels that were surprise successes, and both were sequels that were not widely seen as superior to the original (though GOTG2 was certainly more well-received overall, hence the larger boost).

It will be interesting to see how IW performs since it will surely be marketed as an Avengers/GOTG crossover. The novelty could see another surprise explosion a la Avengers 1.

 

[legendkillin]

I'll be completely honest, I thought for sure this was crossing a billion for one reason: Baby Groot. From the trailers it looked like this movie was hitting that family demographic hard and I thought Baby Groot would be a phenomenon with kids.

Much to my pleasant surprise Groot didnt dominate the actual film. But anyway, the numbers its doing are very very good and the movie deserves it, but I did think that kids were gonna turn out in droves to see this over and over and over.

Perhaps the language had a hand in that. I love the movie and as an adult I understood the movie. I would expect some parents to not want to take their kids multiple times when the movie cusses and talks a bit about sex.

 

[legendkillin]

If Spidey can get going he'll be hitting a billion with future films.

Spidey was great in CW that was a step in the right direction. HC needs to establish him as a hero, they are relying a lot on it being an MCU connection. That will get some people back since the ASM series burned some bridges. This movie has to click with all the viewers for the sequels to be billion dollar movies.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I think the first movie was so well received and took many by surprised, they expected it to be way bigger. Even though it's surpassed the original domestic and worldwide at the box office.

I see these surprise hits as hitting their general "ceiling" with the first movie because that kind of buzz gets just about everyone who is interested in the theater. It's a "happening" that has a novelty which makes it a "must see" type of thing.

Same situation with Deadpool and I don't think it can increase much at all domestic personally.

 

[TheVileOne]

I see these surprise hits as hitting their general "ceiling" with the first movie because that kind of buzz gets just about everyone who is interested in the theater. It's a "happening" that has a novelty which makes it a "must see" type of thing.

Same situation with Deadpool and I don't think it can increase much at all domestic personally.

Well it technically didn't hit a ceiling the first time around because again the sequel surpassed the original's at the box office. I think some people just expected it to be even bigger.

I agree with the former, but taken into context....that doesn't make sense, at least to me. It was a phenomenon on many levels and still is. I see it cracking $375m-$380m domestic. Hopefully it will have a shot at $850m WW but I'll leave that to the better number crunchers of these forums.

Well it's right at about $360 million domestic right now. $375 million domestic should be doable.

 

[seriesofdreams]

Well it technically didn't hit a ceiling the first time around because again the sequel surpassed the original's at the box office. I think some people just expected it to be even bigger.



Well it's right at about $360 million domestic right now. $375 million domestic should be doable.

Hence why folks need to keep expectations in check. I'm happy with the result.

$375m, yeah seems about right, but $380m still seems in play with the underperformance of Pirates, Baywatch, Alien: C and the like. Watching GOTG2 overtake the latter two has been good to see. We'll see how the weekend shakes up. I'm expecting The Mummy to underperform the $40m figure. Depends on this weekend, I guess.

 

[iEquinox]

Well it's right at about $360 million domestic right now. $375 million domestic should be doable.

It won't end up with just $375M, it will definitely go higher than that. $385M seems most likely right now.