Is Trump a 2 termer?

[Kelly]

Sharp rise in candidates. I know there are 5 trying to unseat my 30 year Representative. Woman candidates are also way on the rise. I think the Dems having good recruitment for candidates is a very good sign.

Meanwhile, a ton of the GOP are retiring.

The important thing about the mid terms, is that they will be local. It won't be on the national stage like the Presidential election. Yes, the talking heads will always bring it back to Trump, and to an extent, that will be a factor.

The Koch Brothers are all over the place up there....Dems need to win STATE SEATS....that is where their money is going, and into the school districts up there as well...I'm telling you the Dems are screwing up in a huge way. They do not know what the hell they are doing.

Do not fall into the tons of GOP are retiring scenario.....The Koch Brothers are POURING MONEY into those states.

If I am wrong, I will be the happiest person who was ever wrong in the history of people being wrong......but I don't think I will be.

 

[Kelly]

That's exactly why they lost.

Which was my point, but thanks for explaining?

 

[Sithborg]

The Koch Brothers are all over the place up there....Dems need to win STATE SEATS....that is where their money is going, and into the school districts up there as well...I'm telling you the Dems are screwing up in a huge way. They do not know what the hell they are doing.

Do not fall into the tons of GOP are retiring scenario.....The Koch Brothers are POURING MONEY into those states.

If I am wrong, I will be the happiest person who was ever wrong in the history of people being wrong......but I don't think I will be.

I live in MI. We have DeVos money around here, thank you very much...

I know in WI, the GOP lost a state senate seat that had been red for 20 years, with a 20+ Trump win. It has scared Walker into stopping 2 other special elections. And the retirements are not guarantees, sure. But it is easier to win a race when you don't have to overcome the incumbent advantage.

I will just go back to last Nov, where there was some amazing successes on the state level.

Kind of pisses me off that the MI Attorney General is running for Governor, as he has a remarkable incentive to clear MSU of wrong doing.

 

[InfinityWar]

Hate to burst some yall's bubble....but if our economy continues to increase and even steady the way it is - people are not going to change their votes from 2016 to 2020. With black unemployment down to an all time lowest, Dems wont even win the black vote the way they usually do. It doesnt matter what ppl's person opinion of Trump, it all boils down to money. And if the Prez is cutting taxes / creating jobs / moving companies from overseas to USA - the vote will go his way. Its all about money at the end of the day. That is all Americans care about.

 

[Sithborg]

Do not underestimate the power that we saw this year. The force behind the Woman's March and #metoo has nothing to do with economy.

And really, a 100,000 voters who voted third party is the key to victory.

 

[mclay18]

They aren't right now.... they are doing absolutely nothing in those states as far as grassroots....so what exactly are they doing differently. Their talking points are all about Trump, not the issues.

I saw plenty of last year's VA winning candidates campaigning on local issues during last year's special elections, like Danica Roem (the transgender woman who beat the anti-LGBT GOP incumbent) campaigning on local infrastructure and the fiance of the reporter killed on live TV campaigning on gun control laws.

The national DNC needs to get their act together, but if local candidates continue to be energized on the state level, the Koch Brothers are going to lose a lot of money on failed GOP candidates. They got their hands in the NC elections back in 2012 and got their Tea Party candidates elected through dark money endeavors like Americans for Prosperity.

Hell, the Tea Party managed to whip up support by mainly being anti-Obama. That only works for getting people elected or foiling potential bills, but it doesn't work for actual governing (as Trump and the GOP majority Congress demonstrated last year). Democrats may have differing reasons for being anti-Trump, but they're united in that animosity.

I think the DNC will be more unified after the midterm elections because then they can capitalize on that momentum and have the support to foil Trump's EOs and legislation rollback.

 

[SV Fan]

My take is if he can somehow bring high paying jobs back to the midwest he has a chance, if he can't they will turn on him

 

[Aximili86]

(Couldn't figure out the multi-quoting thing too well, I'll just leave your stuff normal and bold mine to differentiate, Ragnaroknroll)


I've never been political so can someone please help me understand - what is it people are expecting to see?

What makes something a valid issue?

Is treason not a valid issue?


When as-of-yet unsubstantiated, just assuming it's true is a problem, yeah.


Is protecting America from a foreign adversary not an issue?


Obama didn't give two ****s about Russia either. Trump's had a couple of actions here not in Russia's interests either, that p*ssed 'em off. The puppet-government thing is overstated - if there's been collusion, it'll be proven and they Trumpies will go down for it. As of now, it hasn't.


Is equal rights for all not an issue?


Rights haven't changed as of this president. They can't, there's a constitution.



Is protecting the planet from catastrophic climate change not an issue?


Climate change is real. "Catastrophic", while likely in the ultra-long-term, is overstated too. And the Paris agreement was a non-binding thing anyway, half the people that signed it aren't going to change d*ck about the way they do things. It's basically symbolic, as someone who believes in climate change being a problem I don't give two ****s he didn't sign it. It's a laughable framework anyway.


Is protecting the planet from a nuclear holocaust not an issue?


'Course it is. A nuclear holocaust's not on the cards though.



Is common sense immigration law that doesn't destroy innocent lives not an issue?


"Common sense" is pretty subjective, man. I'm not with Trump on the immigration stuff, but plenty of people clearly are. His way isn't a good idea, the current way it's been done under the last few admins aren't reasonable, there's a reasonable in-between. Also, the guy just raised the amount of Dreamers he's willing to make legal it was still rejected.


Is responsible law enforcement without police brutality not an issue?


Uh, of course it is. Police shootings are down though, seems a weird point to make.


Is world stability not an issue?


Again, subjective. A lot of people would say the strategic patience with NK hasn't exactly bred stability so far.


Is national unity not an issue?


Let's not pretend the country's been unified under the last few administrations, please. Last time we were remotely "unified" in any loose definition of the term was probably the Bush Sr days. And even then...notsomuch.

 

[Chance Jackson]

Hate to burst some yall's bubble....but if our economy continues to increase and even steady the way it is - people are not going to change their votes from 2016 to 2020. With black unemployment down to an all time lowest, Dems wont even win the black vote the way they usually do. It doesnt matter what ppl's person opinion of Trump, it all boils down to money. And if the Prez is cutting taxes / creating jobs / moving companies from overseas to USA - the vote will go his way. Its all about money at the end of the day. That is all Americans care about.

Today's job trend has been going on for over 75 months trump didn't do that and job creation slowed under him

with the layoffs announced so far and all the layoffs that will occur with all the consolidation/buyouts that happen under tax repatriation + rhetoric and Sessions as AG
Basically all but the wrong dems will have more of the black vote than in 2016

 

[Doug_Moore]

Hate to burst some yall's bubble....but if our economy continues to increase and even steady the way it is - people are not going to change their votes from 2016 to 2020.

This. Reagan, Clinton, and Obama all won their elections because of a bad economy.

 

[Aximili86]

Well, it was more than just that with Obama (the wars played a factor, along with being young & charismatic and the first black guy), but overall, yeah. Trump's behavior won't mean d*ck if the middle-class are satisfied with their pocketbooks and 401ks.

 

[SV Fan]

Hate to burst some yall's bubble....but if our economy continues to increase and even steady the way it is - people are not going to change their votes from 2016 to 2020.

Dems don't need to pick up any Trump votes, they just need 77k Jill Stein and Gary Johnson votes in 3 states. Once you factor in all the Puerto Ricans moving to Florida(113k difference) they might only need one of the Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

The Jill Stein votes all by themselves would have put Clinton over the top in the 3 states I mentioned, I have to believe their will be a good number of those that won't make the same mistake twice

With black unemployment down to an all time lowest, Dems wont even win the black vote the way they usually do.

Black unemployment got worse by 1% in today's jobs numbers. There goes that talking point, what blacks will remember though is we have a President who seems to enjoy picking fights with black people on twitter.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006

It doesnt matter what ppl's person opinion of Trump, it all boils down to money. And if the Prez is cutting taxes / creating jobs / moving companies from overseas to USA - the vote will go his way. Its all about money at the end of the day. That is all Americans care about.

I hope for the sake of the people in the Mid West Trump can bring back those HIGH PAYING manufacturing jobs he promised. Even the coal miner, we have roughly 1k more coal mining jobs we do now then this time last year. Only 37k more jobs to bring the coal mining jobs back to how they were in 2011(when we got a spike in coal mining jobs due to high gas prices)

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES1021210001

Nov 2011 - 89.6
Jan 2018 - 51.8

 

[Doug_Moore]

Dems don't need to pick up any Trump votes, they just need 77k Jill Stein and Gary Johnson votes in 3 states. Once you factor in all the Puerto Ricans moving to Florida(113k difference) they might only need one of the Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

The Jill Stein votes all by themselves would have put Clinton over the top in the 3 states I mentioned, I have to believe their will be a good number of those that won't make the same mistake twice

Its because of posts like this why the USA will always have the two party system.

 

[SV Fan]

Its because of posts like this why the USA will always have the two party system.

Both Stein and Johnson got higher then normal vote totals for third parties in 2016. I am guessing many of those voters didn't like either option and voted third party in disgust. it's a basic case those are the voters the Dems will need to pick up a higher share come 2020(rather then trying to turn 2016 Trump voters)

 

[Kelly]

Its because of posts like this why the USA will always have the two party system.

No, it is the lack of Campaign Finance Reform as well as outdated Primary and Caucus rules that will keep us in a 2 party system....not a post on a Comic book/Movie/TV forum.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

The US has a two party system because of first past the post. Only with a proportional representation system can other parties flourish. A first past the post system always leads to a two party polarization.

 

[redhawk23]

If the Democrats can't find someone that people can be excited about voting for rather than just against Trump, then Trump will win a second term the same way that Bush did.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

i didn't think Bush would be. So I guess Trump will be too.

 

[Sithborg]

I think people forget the wave of "patriotism" that flooded the nation after 9/11. 2004 was not enough time for war weariness to set in, as many did believe in the necessity of the Iraq war.

Something they don't seem to be taking into consideration, as there are rumors of talk of starting a war with N. Korea for the midterms.

 

[Aximili86]

Maybe third parties will catch on when they stop running extremists from either side? Maaaaybe food for thought.

Johnson, Stein, Ron Paul? C'mon.

 

[SV Fan]

Maybe third parties will catch on when they stop running extremists from either side? Maaaaybe food for thought.

Johnson, Stein, Ron Paul? C'mon.

Johnson is actually rather "moderate" compared to most Libertarians. He basically was picked by people who viewed getting a more respectable person was a better bet then getting the loudest most ideological libertarian possible

 

[Aximili86]

Johnson's a "the US should never intervene or get involved overseas for any reason ever-everz" guy.

Extreme.

 

[Chance Jackson]

Dems don't need to pick up any Trump votes, they just need 77k Jill Stein and Gary Johnson votes in 3 states. Once you factor in all the Puerto Ricans moving to Florida(113k difference) they might only need one of the Michigan, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.

The Jill Stein votes all by themselves would have put Clinton over the top in the 3 states I mentioned, I have to believe their will be a good number of those that won't make the same mistake twice

Its because of posts like this why the USA will always have the two party system.

yup

Both Stein and Johnson got higher then normal vote totals for third parties in 2016. I am guessing many of those voters didn't like either option and voted third party in disgust. it's a basic case those are the voters the Dems will need to pick up a higher share come 2020(rather then trying to turn 2016 Trump voters)

Stein got like 3 times as much as 2012 and Johnson ("spoiling" Trump) got way more than Stein so this idea that Stein or her voters are to blame at all is a joke

No, it is the lack of Campaign Finance Reform as well as outdated Primary and Caucus rules that will keep us in a 2 party system....not a post on a Comic book/Movie/TV forum.

Not the post itself its the sentiment behind the post I don't see how Primary/Caucus rules hurt 3rd parties but it's clear that neither Dems or Republicans want to let 3rd parties into the presidential debates going so far as to create a bipartisan company that decided on rules that would prevent Ross Perot from being in the debates the 2nd time around

 

[Hobgoblin]

Both Stein and Johnson got higher then normal vote totals for third parties in 2016. I am guessing many of those voters didn't like either option and voted third party in disgust. it's a basic case those are the voters the Dems will need to pick up a higher share come 2020(rather then trying to turn 2016 Trump voters)

I was one of those voters. You nailed my reasoning. I intend to vote Democratic in the midterms and 2020. Sadly, I live in Illinois which is far from a battleground state. It doesn't really matter who I vote for here.

That, and all of the candidates here are freakin terrible. Two are accused of racism, not counting the Holocaust denier.

 

[Sithborg]

It matters. It matters because of the House. It matters because of the Senate. And even more importantly, it is important because of state government. That attitude gave us the 2010 Tea Party wave.