Listen, bro, the studio can't afford more than two movies per year & they want Avengers movies every 3 years. That means we're only getting 4 movies in between ANT-MAN & Avengers 2.
You really think Feige would rather pump out three more sequels to existing characters than introduce three new characters already rumored to be in the casting process?
Also, Whedon wants another Hulk. The guy's convinced he can make a profitable Hulk movie. The likelihood of Hulk 2 taking one of those 4 Phase III slots is much greater than the studio rehashing Cap or Thor.
The other thing you're not taking into account is that because this is a shared universe the individual approach to characters is compromised. That shifts focus from completing solo trilogies to allowing new characters to join the universe.
So in summary, its either:
-BLACK PANTHER
-DOCTOR STRANGE
-THE INHUMANS
-THE INCREDIBLE HULK: PART II
Or
-IRON MAN 4
-CAPTAIN AMERICA 3
-THOR III
-GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II
Rehashing, because that's how Marvel thinks. "We are sensitive artistes! we must do something that will give us credibility, and prevents us from looking like philistines!"
Oh wait, no I forgot. This is Marvel, a company that makes big budget blockbusters with the intention of making money. They're not going to risk FOUR potential bombs in a row, centering around 3 lesser known characters and a character that has twice failed to turn a profit at the theaters.
Short of a nuclear holocaust, we will see the completion of Captain America and Thor trilogies. Both of those movies were successful, and after the Avengers hit 1.5 Billion dollars, I wouldn't be surprised if both franchises saw huge box office boosts, especially in foreign markets, where the characters are now more famous than they ever have been.
So let's say Cap and Thor both get 50% upticks in foreign territories, and a rather modest 10% uptick domestically, based on new interest after being a part of the third largest film of all time. You don't think Marvel would do another sequel to Cap and Thor if they both broke 500 M? Hell, even if they both just matched their first movies, we'd still see threequels.
Your argument for The Hulk 2 being "much more likely" than Cap 3 or Thor 3? Is paper tiger. "Whedon wants". Whedon also wanted a smaller Avengers sequel, which lead everyone to assume we'd get Ultron, but every day we're getting more and more signs that Avengers 2 will be the Infinity Gauntlet or at the very least, Thanos with the cosmic cube, neither of which are "small, personal" stories. They're large scale, grand epics.
Ultimately it's always Feige in the driver seat. If Whedon's "I want a Hulk film" request held any weight, we would've seen the announcement for Phase II. They will do an Incredible Hulk 2 eventually, but not at the expense of proven franchises and guaranteed money.
As for Iron Man 4, and GotG 2 those are admittedly up in the air. GoTG hinges soley on the performance of the first movie, while Iron Man 4 hinges on their ability to put together a contract that both marvel Studios and Downey are satisfied with. I believe Marvel will cave to Downey, and will not shoot their golden goose.
I have no doubt we'll see all four of the movies you mentioned eventually, but they will not take place at the expense of the "Marvel Trinity".
