Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[Spider-ManHero12]

Aloha,
Okay let's stay on track-this is a Spidey 3 thread not Pirates not Shrek.Today,Saturday (22 days) our guy crosses the $300 million markt: That's what's important. Sony was very smart to let Spidey 3 lead the blockbusters. There is just too much compettion now for someone to beat Spidey 3.Dosen't mean that Pirates and Shrek won't do great business. Spidey 3 domestic as of Friday $293.5-WW 760.5.Spidey 3 at $300 million in 22 days ties with Spidey One. It's the FRANCHISE-not the competiton. Spidey 3 has proven it can break the trilogy curse.The foreign market for Spidey 3 is huge. We've got a whole summer-let's not write off the domestic market just yet either.
Spidey rules

Spidey rules all!!!. nothing can beat Spidey and thats a fact. it has made more than $300 million and that is great news IMO!.

 

[DACrowe]

Yeah, But I have a feeling PIrates will make more money in the longe run unless its drops are just as steep as Spidey (which is not unfathomable).

I'd add that it was pretty clear after second weekend this wasn't going to clear $350 million. Now on fourth weekend clearking $320 million is the question. I think it will clear $310 million but after that? I don't know...

Still it crosses $300 million this weekend and holds the opening weekend record. Sony's happy. There will be a fourth and hopefully it made enough for Soney to pay for Sam, Tobey and Kirsten to come back for one more.

 

[The Guardian]

I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT WON'T MAKE IT CLOSE TO $350M!!! LET ME EXPLAIN, A MOVIE WHEN IT'S A HIT LASTS ABOUT A LITTLE OVER THREE MONTHS IN THEATERS, SPIDEY 1 LASTED OVER 100 DAYS, SPIDEY 2, OVER 150 DAYS!!! NOW LET'S SAY SPIDEY 3 LASTS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND LASTS ABOUT 120 DAYS, THAT MEANS SPIDEY 3 STILL HAS ABOUT THREE MONTHS LEFT IN THEATERS!!! NOW LETS SAY SPIDEY ONLY MAKES $1M PER DAY FROM NOW ON, NOW TO CLARIFY IT WILL MAKE MORE THAN $1M THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND AT THE END OF ITS RUN IT WILL ONLY BE MAKING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED THOUSANDS, BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT AND DO THE MATH, IT WILL MOST LIKELY JUST MAKE IT OVER $350M, REMEMBER THERE ARE STILL THREE MONTHS LEFT IN ITS RUN!!! ANYWAY THIS IS JUST MY OPINION, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO FACT HOPEFULLY IN THREE MONTHS!!!up:

 

[chaseter]

^Well my theatres here only have about 5 or 6 showings of Spidey a day. With all of these new blockbusters coming out, it will be gone before Shrek or Pirates. My guess is that when Oceans and Fantastic Four hit in June, there will only be a couple of showings and come Harry Potter in July, it will be out of theatres.

 

[The Guardian]

^Well my theatres here only have about 5 or 6 showings of Spidey a day. With all of these new blockbusters coming out, it will be gone before Shrek or Pirates. My guess is that when Oceans and Fantastic Four hit in June, there will only be a couple of showings and come Harry Potter in July, it will be out of theatres.

I DOUBT IT BECAUSE SPIDEY 1 CAME OUT AT THIS SAME TIME AND ALSO HAD PLENTY OF COMPETITION IN 2002, BUT IT STILL LASTED OVER 100 DAYS IN THEATERS, SO I GUESS WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE!!!up:

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think Spidey will stay in theaters for a while. I think many are underestimating the length of the theatrical run will have.

 

[ultimatefan]

It seems clear now that Shrek 3 shouldn´t equal Spidey 3`s domestic BO. POTC3 may have a shot, but with the overlong running time, confusing and overexposed plot, it should be pretty frontloaded.

Spidey 3 may not get 350m domestic, but its total tally has a good shot of surpassing the first two and Sony surely has another sequel in sight.

 

[Robin91939]

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End will be the number one movie in the box office of the year, but Spider-man 3 will keep all of the records it has set thus far.

1.) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 380 Million
2.) Spider-man 3 340 Million
3.) Harry Potter 330 Million
4.) Transformers 240 Million
5.) Shrek the Third 220 Million

-R

 

[ultimatefan]

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End will be the number one movie in the box office of the year, but Spider-man 3 will keep all of the records it has set thus far.

1.) Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End 380 Million
2.) Spider-man 3 340 Million
3.) Harry Potter 330 Million
4.) Transformers 240 Million
5.) Shrek the Third 220 Million

-R

Only if POTC3 is less frontloaded than SM3, and I doubt it will be.

Shrek 3 will be close to 220m by the end of this holiday alone.

 

[Donald Thomas]

I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT WON'T MAKE IT CLOSE TO $350M!!! LET ME EXPLAIN, A MOVIE WHEN IT'S A HIT LASTS ABOUT A LITTLE OVER THREE MONTHS IN THEATERS, SPIDEY 1 LASTED OVER 100 DAYS, SPIDEY 2, OVER 150 DAYS!!! NOW LET'S SAY SPIDEY 3 LASTS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND LASTS ABOUT 120 DAYS, THAT MEANS SPIDEY 3 STILL HAS ABOUT THREE MONTHS LEFT IN THEATERS!!! NOW LETS SAY SPIDEY ONLY MAKES $1M PER DAY FROM NOW ON, NOW TO CLARIFY IT WILL MAKE MORE THAN $1M THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND AT THE END OF ITS RUN IT WILL ONLY BE MAKING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED THOUSANDS, BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT AND DO THE MATH, IT WILL MOST LIKELY JUST MAKE IT OVER $350M, REMEMBER THERE ARE STILL THREE MONTHS LEFT IN ITS RUN!!! ANYWAY THIS IS JUST MY OPINION, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO FACT HOPEFULLY IN THREE MONTHS!!!up:

Aloha,
Unlike some who are just throwing numbers out into the air, you are actually using past facts to support your prediction.WOW what a concept.While this thread askes about domsetic take-let's not throw out any money that will be made. It appears that Spidey 3 will have the highest foreign gross within the franchise. As long as the $ converts to America IN GOD WE TRUST- it's all good.$300 million TODAY people(Sat 5/26/07). That's what we should be celebrating.
Spidey rules

 

[Kargo Warrior]

HAHAHAHA there is no way in hell for Pirates to make 380 in the USA...

Shrek 220???

How about Spidey not making 295...LOL

and with the overseas numbers there is a chance for SP3 to surpass SP1 this weekend...that is staggering,concidering that most people didnt think it will make more than SP1 in the whole run let alone 4 weeks...

 

[Lord Blackbolt]

Spidey deserves more than titanic....there I said it. Call me a fanboy or not.....but all the Spidey movies are a hundred times more entertaining than that movie.

 

[chaseter]

Spidey deserves more than titanic....there I said it. Call me a fanboy or not.....but all the Spidey movies are a hundred times more entertaining than that movie.

Me liked me some Kate Winslet boob though.

 

[The Guardian]

THE

Aloha,
Unlike some who are just throwing numbers out into the air, you are actually using past facts to support your prediction.WOW what a concept.While this thread askes about domsetic take-let's not throw out any money that will be made. It appears that Spidey 3 will have the highest foreign gross within the franchise. As long as the $ converts to America IN GOD WE TRUST- it's all good.$300 million TODAY people(Sat 5/26/07). That's what we should be celebrating.
Spidey rules

THANK YOU, I CONTHIDER MYTHELF A THETHPIAN AND A THEMI THMART PERTHON, WHAT, THO MY THPELLING THUCKS, THO THUE ME!!!up:

 

[Spider-ManHero12]

I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING IT WON'T MAKE IT CLOSE TO $350M!!! LET ME EXPLAIN, A MOVIE WHEN IT'S A HIT LASTS ABOUT A LITTLE OVER THREE MONTHS IN THEATERS, SPIDEY 1 LASTED OVER 100 DAYS, SPIDEY 2, OVER 150 DAYS!!! NOW LET'S SAY SPIDEY 3 LASTS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE AND LASTS ABOUT 120 DAYS, THAT MEANS SPIDEY 3 STILL HAS ABOUT THREE MONTHS LEFT IN THEATERS!!! NOW LETS SAY SPIDEY ONLY MAKES $1M PER DAY FROM NOW ON, NOW TO CLARIFY IT WILL MAKE MORE THAN $1M THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND AT THE END OF ITS RUN IT WILL ONLY BE MAKING A COUPLE OF HUNDRED THOUSANDS, BUT IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT AND DO THE MATH, IT WILL MOST LIKELY JUST MAKE IT OVER $350M, REMEMBER THERE ARE STILL THREE MONTHS LEFT IN ITS RUN!!! ANYWAY THIS IS JUST MY OPINION, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO FACT HOPEFULLY IN THREE MONTHS!!!up:

I couldn't agree more. Spider-man3 has already made over $300 million and in the next three months I gaurantee it will make $350 million. theres no doubt about it. in just 22 days it's made a ton of money and it hasen't even been month yet. I really can't wait to see how much it makes in three months because I know it will make alot!. not to mention that three months is still plenty of time to make more money so I think that there is no dnying that this film will make more not just in the next month but most likley next weekend as well.

 

[Carp Man]

'At World's End' Bustling on Opening Day
by Brandon Gray
May 26, 2007


Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End stormed a record number of ports—over 11,000 screens at 4,362 theaters—and posted the fifth-highest grossing opening day ever, an estimated $43 million, according to distributor Buena Vista. Including an estimated $14 million from pre-midnight Thursday previews at approximately 3,100 sites, the supernatural swashbuckler has racked up $57 million in about a day and a half.

Last July, predecessor Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest grabbed a then-record $55.8 million, which included about $9 million from midnight showings. Buena Vista estimated At World's End's midnight showings at $3 million (included in the $43 million), but initial demand was burnt off from Thursday night.

"We knew by putting shows early it would take away from the opening day," said Chuck Viane, ruling out the possibility of breaking Spider-Ma 3s $151.1 million opening weekend record. "Today [Saturday] is the key to how we're going to do".

Viane noted that At World's End's grade from CinemaScore, which polls opening night moviegoers, was an "A-," about the same as Dead Man's Chest.

"Seven theaters yesterday did over $100,000," Viane added and reported the top three: the Salt Lake City, Utah, area's Megaplex 17 at Jordan Commons with $120,696 and Megaplex 20 at the District with $120,073, followed by Hollywood's Disney-owned El Capitan with $118,009. "You always see a Salt Lake theater around on a really big family movie, but I don't recall a Salt Lake theater being at the top, let alone the top two."

At World's End is still on track to deliver the biggest Memorial Day weekend opening ever. Last year's X-Men: The Last Stand is the current title holder with its $122.9 million four-day start. Dead Man's Chest drew $153.8 million in its first four days.

Overseas, At World's End pulled in an estimated $43.1 million from a global 102 territories on Friday, lifting its foreign cumulative to $84.2 million since Wednesday. Factor the domestic gross, and the worldwide tally stands at $141.2 million.

 

[chaseter]

I think Spidey will reach 350 easily. Even if it only makes 4 or 5 million a day...in two weeks it will be there.

 

[Donald Thomas]

Hey Donald, have you ever of changing your name to TRUMP ? Because you da MAN . t:

Aloha,
You're Hired.
Spidey rules

 

[TLH]

I think Spidey will reach 350 easily. Even if it only makes 4 or 5 million a day...in two weeks it will be there.

You're joking, right? There is no way it will gross $4-5 million each day over the next two weeks. Yes, it will gross $4-5 million this Saturday, Sunday and Monday (holiday), but after that it's going to drop down to $1-1.5 million or so per day and continue on the decline as the weeks go by--same goes for the weekends.

The only film with such stamina four or five weeks into its release was Titanic, and that went on to gross $600 million domestic. Not even any of the LOTR films grossed $4-5 million a day that far into their release. The first Spider-Man film itself only took in $1.5-2 million or so on its fourth and fifth weekday stretches.

Have you kept an eye on the daily charts? Last week's weekday chart was 2.3, 1.6, 1.5, and 1.7 million respectively from Monday to Thursday. Given that pattern would you like to explain this sudden jump in ticket sales to $4-5 million a day? Your prediction defies logic. The only claim you make that I agree with is that this film will reach $350 million, however it will not do so "easily". It will likely limp to that total a month or two down the line.

 

[Visionary]

True, I'm just happy it'll be over the 300M mark this weekend, we might need Monday. Whatever comes after that, especially with Shrek/Pirates in theaters, is pretty damn good. I still think SM3 has a chance at beating SM2/SM1 worldwide. But it's gonna be tough with Shrek/Pirates now pouring in overseas. It should take about 3 to 4 weeks to beat SM1 worldwide cume.

BTW, any word on an update for SM3's overseas cume, it should be pretty close to 500M by now, perhaps in another week or two it should be over 500M.

 

[Kargo Warrior]

Visionary dude i think your the most pesimistic human being ever...LOL

''I still think SM3 has a chance at beating SM2/SM1 worldwide''

With the overseas numbers even if they fell 50% (last weekend the drop was 40%)it will be around 810-815 and if the drop is smaller it will surpass SP1 by monday...or by Friday by the very latest....in 3/4 weeks SP3 could easily be over 900 $

 

[Visionary]

Visionary dude i think your the most pesimistic human being ever...LOL

I'm not pesimistic, just a little nervous, I don't want Sony to put out "GARFIELD 3: MORE ORANGE *****" instead of SM4. Okay, maybe I'm a little pesimistic.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Spider-Man 4 is a lock. I am willing to bet on it. The only question is 2009 or 2010?

 

[Kargo Warrior]

The thing that everybody forgets is that Pirates 2 for example needed 9 weeks to reach the billlion and btw that was the fastest any movie has ever reach that mark...and Spidey will have over 800 by tomorrow in his 4-th week,not even a whole month...i think at this rate 900 is in the pocket especially with the legs overseas...the only way the domestic is dissapointing is by looking the opening weekend,it will have 15-20 less than SP2 ....Shrek 3 for example will have maybe a 100 less than Shrek 2,now that is dissapointing

However you look at it only 15 movies EVER have made over 800 millions and SP3 has made it in less than a month...now that's an acomplishment for a nerdy guy who lives with his aunt and talks to himself DDD

 

[Visionary]

I personally don't think either movie will be a disappointment at the box office for their respective studios.