Official Spider-Man 3 Box Office Thread - Predictions and Forecasts

[davida86]

Pirates less than expected performance is really not surprising because to think about it, there are way too many movies out now. This summer season is oversaturated and the public has too many choices out there therefore Pirates is unlikely to get most of the share!..Spidey 3 was soo lucky to have been the first outta the gate because if it would have come out later in May or even June, it would have seriously underperformed too..I mean spidey 3 is dissappointing domestically..Its box office is gonna end up at 350 if its lucky..Imagine what would have happened if it didn't open on May 4th this yr? Something tells me that a big summer movie coming up either in June or July is gonna surprise us all at the box office!!..Cause i am thinking Spidey 3 can't be the highest grossing movie this year..340M-350M is just not good enough for the highest grossing movie..it needs to be at least 400M

 

[spider-neil]

SM3
shrek 3
POTC 3

coming out all in the same month was DAFT.
last year POTC crushed superman but there was no way on earth they'd be able to do that to spiderman and throw shrek into the mix and well...

if POTC 3 had waited just one more month they would have cleaned up at the box office and probably taken spidey's records as well.

all hail spidey, he came he saw he kicked ass

also am I correct in thinking when spidey overtaks SM1 WW cume it will officially be the biggest grossing trilogy of all time?

 

[Carp Man]

June 02, 2007

SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: 'Pirates' soft on Friday with a tick over $12M; 'AWE' now a longshot for $300M; 'Knocked Up' likely 2nd with better than $25M; 'Brooks' with $8.9M

by Steve Mason

Disney execs are getting more nervous by the day.
I spoke to 3 high level studio execs in the past day or so, and 2 of them say that Pirates of the Caribbean 3: At World’s End will finish its domestic run in the $290M-$295M range. The third industry type says the movie will top out at $305M. Last summer’s Dead Man’s Chest stormed to $423.3M so the Gore Verbinski second sequel will stagger to 30% less in Disney coffers.

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/06/saturday_mornin.html

 

[Leenie]

I'm so shocked at how Pirates is doing. Really shocked. I mean, I don't mind at all because I don't like those movies, but WOW. A month ago, I would have guaranteed that Pirates was going to kick Spidey's butt.

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ Too damn long and too boring compared to the first 2 Pirates films. Also the idiotic over crowded marketplace in May. Spidey had that spot forever. Shrek was foolish to put itself there and then Pirates right after...dumb move of huge ego's. 2008 is gonna be even worse. Swallow your damn pride and move your release date to make the company more money if another film is already there.

 

[spider-neil]

SPIDEY 3 RULES!!!!

I think the only thing to rival spidey now for the years biggest gross is harry potter, it is going to be HUGE with the 7th and final book coming out at the same time.

 

[spider-neil]

^ Too damn long and too boring compared to the first 2 Pirates films. Also the idiotic over crowded marketplace in May. Spidey had that spot forever. Shrek was foolish to put itself there and then Pirates right after...dumb move of huge ego's. 2008 is gonna be even worse. Swallow your damn pride and move your release date to make the company more money if another film is already there.

they thought they could crush spidey like they crushed superman and got handed their own arse

 

[Advanced Dark]

Has a Harry Potter film ever crossed 300 million domestic???

 

[davida86]

SM3
shrek 3
POTC 3

coming out all in the same month was DAFT.
last year POTC crushed superman but there was no way on earth they'd be able to do that to spiderman and throw shrek into the mix and well...

if POTC 3 had waited just one more month they would have cleaned up at the box office and probably taken spidey's records as well.

all hail spidey, he came he saw he kicked ass

also am I correct in thinking when spidey overtaks SM1 WW cume it will officially be the biggest grossing trilogy of all time?

Very very true..My thoughts exactly..It was just too much to release all those movies at once like that..If Pirates was released in July just like the last one, it would have caused chaos at the box office..Shrek 3 should have opened in the middle of the summer..Spidey 3 really won the game this year..Its release date really helped!..

 

[Leenie]

^ Too damn long and too boring compared to the first 2 Pirates films. Also the idiotic over crowded marketplace in May. Spidey had that spot forever. Shrek was foolish to put itself there and then Pirates right after...dumb move of huge ego's. 2008 is gonna be even worse. Swallow your damn pride and move your release date to make the company more money if another film is already there.

Haha, well, you see ... That's how I felt about the first two Pirates movies- long and boring. Since I'm in the minority when it comes to POTC, I thought that this movie would have kicked butt. I was dead wrong ... And I'm glad I was. t:

 

[davida86]

^ Too damn long and too boring compared to the first 2 Pirates films. Also the idiotic over crowded marketplace in May. Spidey had that spot forever. Shrek was foolish to put itself there and then Pirates right after...dumb move of huge ego's. 2008 is gonna be even worse. Swallow your damn pride and move your release date to make the company more money if another film is already there.

Exactly..

 

[davida86]

Has a Harry Potter film ever crossed 300 million domestic???

Yep..But i have a feeling that this new one coming out in July will be more massive than Goblet of Fire..

 

[Carp Man]

^ Too damn long and too boring compared to the first 2 Pirates films. Also the idiotic over crowded marketplace in May. Spidey had that spot forever. Shrek was foolish to put itself there and then Pirates right after...dumb move of huge ego's. 2008 is gonna be even worse. Swallow your damn pride and move your release date to make the company more money if another film is already there.

I'm actually elated with Pirates performance. t: I thought FF 2 would be running into a buzzsaw opening weekend, and that Pirates would be going stroung. With Pirates continuing to weaken, that means when FF 2 opens in 13 days, they will have clear sailing. Pardon the pun there. t:

 

[Tempest19]

I'm actually elated with Pirates performance. t: I thought FF 2 would be running into a buzzsaw opening weekend, and that Pirates would be going stroung. With Pirates continuing to weaken, that means when FF 2 opens in 13 days, they will have clear sailing. Pardon the pun there. t:

It's great isn't it? POTC fans were going crazy over that and saying it would do to SM3 what it did for SR. I can only sit back, laugh, and not feel sorry for those people. t:

 

[Carp Man]

It's great isn't it? POTC fans were going crazy over that and saying it would do to SM3 what it did for SR. I can only sit back, laugh, and not feel sorry for those people. t:

I think people will be in the mood for something new and different, and me thinks The Silver Surfer will fill that need nicely. I still say FF 2 will be the suprise of the summer. Many will underestmate it, just like they did the 1st one.

 

[Advanced Dark]

I'm glad Knocked Up came out this weekend. That movie looks hilarious and should have really good legs.

 

[Advanced Dark]

I'm actually elated with Pirates performance. t: I thought FF 2 would be running into a buzzsaw opening weekend, and that Pirates would be going stroung. With Pirates continuing to weaken, that means when FF 2 opens in 13 days, they will have clear sailing. Pardon the pun there. t:

Shrek will probably be doing better than Pirates when FF2 comes out.

 

[Tempest19]

I'm thinking 180-210 possibly. Ranking with the recent hero DC films or just a tad below them. But, definitelty more than the first.

As said before- I think the new factor will mainly help out TF, as well.

 

[spider-neil]

I think people will be in the mood for something new and different, and me thinks The Silver Surfer will fill that need nicely. I still say FF 2 will be the suprise of the summer. Many will underestmate it, just like they did the 1st one.

it will need good WOM if it doesn't get it it will suffer as most people thought FF sucked so if someone tells you the sequel is just as bad then the audience wont bother.

transformers is a dark horse because it is brand new so could go either way.

I still think HP is going to be huge by virtue of the book

 

[Advanced Dark]

I think it'll be generally called an improvement over the original that's a fun fast paced thrill ride that's leaves you wanting more. I think the Silver Surfer is going to really intrigue alot of people.

 

[Stupify_me]

Pirates less than expected performance is really not surprising because to think about it, there are way too many movies out now. This summer season is oversaturated and the public has too many choices out there therefore Pirates is unlikely to get most of the share!..Spidey 3 was soo lucky to have been the first outta the gate because if it would have come out later in May or even June, it would have seriously underperformed too..I mean spidey 3 is dissappointing domestically..Its box office is gonna end up at 350 if its lucky..Imagine what would have happened if it didn't open on May 4th this yr? Something tells me that a big summer movie coming up either in June or July is gonna surprise us all at the box office!!..Cause i am thinking Spidey 3 can't be the highest grossing movie this year..340M-350M is just not good enough for the highest grossing movie..it needs to be at least 400M

Are you serious? 300+ is just fine for a top movie of the year. There is not one movie coming out this year that can top Spiderman 3 the only two that had a chance have already come out and are failing as we speak

 

[Visionary]

Actually a movie making 400M is damn-near impossible, only 7 movies in history has ever accomplished this:

1 Titanic Par. $600,788,188
2 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007
3 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247
4 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554
5 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $431,088,301
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812
7 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002

And making 350M isn't an easy task either only 5 movies in history has accomplished this:

8 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $380,270,577
9 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $377,027,325
10 Spider-Man 2 Sony $373,585,825
11 The Passion of the Christ NM $370,782,930
12 Jurassic Park Uni. $357,067,947

Take a gander at how few films has ever even crossed the 300M mark:

13 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $341,786,758 2002
14 Finding Nemo BV $339,714,978 2003
15 Forrest Gump Par. $329,694,499 1994
16 The Lion King BV $328,541,776 1994
17 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $317,575,550 2001
18 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring NL $314,776,170 2001
19 Spider-Man 3 Sony $312,764,000 2007
20 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $310,676,740 2002
21 Return of the Jedi Fox $309,306,177 1983
22 Independence Day Fox $306,169,268 1996
23 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl BV 305,413,918


This is why I laugh at those who think making 300, 350 and 400 million is some easy ass task domestically. Only "23" films thus far in history has ever grossed more than "300" million, and Spider-Man did it 3 times in a freakin' row.

 

[Stupify_me]

Actually a movie making 400M is damn-near impossible, only 7 movies in history has ever accomplished this:

1 Titanic Par. $600,788,188
2 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007
3 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247
4 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554
5 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $431,088,301
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812
7 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002

And making 350M isn't an easy task either only 5 movies in history has accomplished this:

8 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $380,270,577
9 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King NL $377,027,325
10 Spider-Man 2 Sony $373,585,825
11 The Passion of the Christ NM $370,782,930
12 Jurassic Park Uni. $357,067,947

Take a gander at how few films has ever even crossed the 300M mark:

13 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers NL $341,786,758 2002
14 Finding Nemo BV $339,714,978 2003
15 Forrest Gump Par. $329,694,499 1994
16 The Lion King BV $328,541,776 1994
17 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone WB $317,575,550 2001
18 The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring NL $314,776,170 2001
19 Spider-Man 3 Sony $312,764,000 2007
20 Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones Fox $310,676,740 2002
21 Return of the Jedi Fox $309,306,177 1983
22 Independence Day Fox $306,169,268 1996
23 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl BV 305,413,918


This is why I laugh at those who think making 300, 350 and 400 million is some easy ass task domestically. Only "23" films thus far in history has ever grossed more than "300" million, and Spider-Man did it 3 times in a freakin' row.

This is exactly why I asked that guy if he was serious when he said 350 wasn't enough for a top movie of the year

 

[Carp Man]

Those #'s are a tad misleading. If you count all movies including those that have multiple release then yes the # is 23 have made $ 300 domestic or more. If you count only movies with over 300 million for their initial release the # drops to 15. Of those 15 only 9 have made it to $ 350 domestic, and only 5 of those 15 have reached $ 400 domestic. So yes it is quite an achievement to make $ 300 domestic. And it takes a herculean effort to reach $ 400 million. Only 5 movies have made it to $ 400 million ever. Titanic, Shrek 2, Star Wars Episode 1, POTC 2, and Spider-Man.

 

[lordofthenerds]

Actually a movie making 400M is damn-near impossible, only 7 movies in history has ever accomplished this:

1 Titanic Par. $600,788,188
2 Star Wars Fox $460,998,007
3 Shrek 2 DW $441,226,247
4 E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial Uni. $435,110,554
5 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace Fox $431,088,301
6 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $423,315,812
7 Spider-Man Sony $403,706,375 2002

And 2 of those movies made over $400M from multiple releases.