Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Box-Office Numbers

[Fallen]

 

[JB33]

Some reports are saying $19.3M for Monday though. Waiting for actuals.

 

[InCali]

I think most people having Monday off helps with the Sunday hold. One extra day to do stuff you’d normally do on a Sunday.

My point was not the Sunday hold. It was the Monday hold. There was a very small, relatively speaking, drop off from Sunday to Monday. That’s unusual

 

[InCali]

This movie has been on the high side of every single optimistic projection. I hate to sound like a broken record, not really, but this is very guardians of the galaxy like

 

[JB33]

My point was not the Sunday hold. It was the Monday hold. There was a very small, relatively speaking, drop off from Sunday to Monday. That’s unusual

You're right. It's a combination of being a holiday Monday (mostly because of people seeing movies in the day when they otherwise wouldn't on a normal Monday) and stellar word of mouth. Even with Monday being a holiday the drop would have been a bit steeper without the word of mouth.

All that to say you're right that it's unusual. Tuesday will normalize big time though.

 

[InCali]

You're right. It's a combination of being a holiday Monday (mostly because of people seeing movies in the day when they otherwise wouldn't on a normal Monday) and stellar word of mouth. Even with Monday being a holiday the drop would have been a bit steeper without the word of mouth.

All that to say you're right that it's unusual. Tuesday will normalize big time though.

I hope so because I’m going in about an hour lol. Let’s talk a little bit about domestic box office projections when all is said and done. I keep comparing this to guardians of the Galaxy, which if I recall correctly, got about 330 million on about a 3.3 multiplier. If this movie can match that, that would put it just about dead bang on 250, million. A more reasonable multiplier, considering the nice Corredor it has, might be three. That would put it at over 225 million. Way more than anybody could’ve hoped for when this was released.It’s been on the high side of every single projection, 3.3 really isn’t out of the question.

Edit; please excuse any typos as I’m using voice recognition

 

[JB33]

I hope so because I’m going in about an hour lol. Let’s talk a little bit about domestic box office projections when all is said and done. I keep comparing this to guardians of the Galaxy, which if I recall correctly, got about 330 million on about a 3.3 multiplier. If this movie can match that, that would put it just about dead bang on 250, million. A more reasonable multiplier, considering the nice Corredor it has, might be three. That would put it at over 225 million. Way more than anybody could’ve hoped for when this was released.It’s been on the high side of every single projection, 3.3 really isn’t out of the question.

Edit; please excuse any typos as I’m using voice recognition

Yeah I'm torn about legs. I don't want to underestimate this movie because, well, look what just happened this weekend. But then there's the other part of me going "well we are still in covid times and this movie could still be impacted in some ways". One of those ways being legs.

I think a 3x multi is a good one to shoot for. Luckily SHANG-CHI has a wide open September to gobble up box office dollars because its late, late legs will be cut off by a ridiculously stacked October..

 

[InCali]

Yeah I'm torn about legs. I don't want to underestimate this movie because, well, look what just happened this weekend. But then there's the other part of me going "well we are still in covid times and this movie could still be impacted in some ways". One of those ways being legs.

I think a 3x multi is a good one to shoot for. Luckily SHANG-CHI has a wide open September to gobble up box office dollars because its late, late legs will be cut off by a ridiculously stacked October..

Very true. I haven’t checked for a while, but I believe that guardians of the galaxy had a very similar window although I’m pretty sure it opened the weekend before Labor Day. I think three is reasonable. I’m not sure the Covid will have a big effect. My suspicion is that the opening weekend has already been affected and going forward it might not change that much.

 

[JB33]

Very true. I haven’t checked for a while, but I believe that guardians of the galaxy had a very similar window although I’m pretty sure it opened the weekend before Labor Day. I think three is reasonable. I’m not sure the Covid will have a big effect. My suspicion is that the opening weekend has already been affected and going forward it might not change that much.

Guardians of the Galaxy is a good comparable in terms of being an origin film for C or D list characters that benefited from great WOM! However, it opened earlier than you recall. It opened August 1, so still in the thick of summer. It won't quite be comparable in terms of day to day behaviour at the box office.

I'm actually comparing it to BLACK PANTHER. It's obviously a mini, mini BP but in terms of drop percentages and overall box office behaviour I can't help but wonder if SHANG-CHI will be comparable, just on a smaller scale. BP opened on a holiday weekend but after that had its run in a "normal" time of the year (aka no summer weekdays or Christmas holiday weekdays). SHANG-CHI also opened on a holiday weekend and will have its run in the same sort of landscape in the months of September and October.

I don't know though. BP's holds were ridiculous, especially for being a mega opener to begin with. May not be fair to compare. We'll see.

 

[InCali]

Guardians of the Galaxy is a good comparable in terms of being an origin film for C or D list characters that benefited from great WOM! However, it opened earlier than you recall. It opened August 1, so still in the thick of summer. It won't quite be comparable in terms of day to day behaviour at the box office.

I'm actually comparing it to BLACK PANTHER. It's obviously a mini, mini BP but in terms of drop percentages and overall box office behaviour I can't help but wonder if SHANG-CHI will be comparable, just on a smaller scale. BP opened on a holiday weekend but after that had its run in a "normal" time of the year (aka no summer weekdays or Christmas holiday weekdays). SHANG-CHI also opened on a holiday weekend and will have its run in the same sort of landscape in the months of September and October.

I don't know though. BP's holds were ridiculous, especially for being a mega opener to begin with. May not be fair to compare. We'll see.

You are correct. I guess my memory from seven years ago isn’t as clear as I thought it was. Lol must be that California wine.

 

[InCali]

Anyway, I’m off to the movies. See you all soon.

 

[InCali]

I’m HEEEEERE…………

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Actuals

 

[JB33]

$75,388,688 3-day OW for SHANG-CHI
$94,672,848 4-day

A Labor Day weekend record that will hold for quite some time unless studios start releasing tentpoles on this date regularly.

 

[kguillou]

They gotta find a way to get this in China. I feel like thats an easy $150M left on the table from them.

 

[samsnee]

If we can hit $500M this is a win

 

[Webfoot Hero]

They gotta find a way to get this in China. I feel like thats an easy $150M left on the table from them.

China seems to be cracking down on non-Chinese films and media influences so I'm not sure it'll get a release there. I'd be very surprised if Eternals got one due to Zhao's past statements about China.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Eternals next MCU film to have a great OW

 

[TheVileOne]

Scumbags, liars, and grifters, all these jerks who went and called this movie a flop before it came out based on disreputable reporting and bad faith actors.

 

[kguillou]

Some of those thumbnails are freaking hilarious though

 

[TheVileOne]

China seems to be cracking down on non-Chinese films and media influences so I'm not sure it'll get a release there. I'd be very surprised if Eternals got one due to Zhao's past statements about China.

People keep saying this film was banned in China when that was never actually the case.

 

[TheVileOne]

Some of those thumbnails are freaking hilarious though

They all kind of follow the same playbook, kind of like Darth Kathleen Kennedy with the laser eyes, who still hasn't been fired by Disney.

 

[BlackFox]

There's been a lot of blocking on You Tube this past few days of channels that keep getting suggested.

Seems like some people are always desperate for things to fail to make money out of it, bad news is good business I guess but looks like some went a little early on this one.

 

[kguillou]

I’m so happy this movie is doing well. This was a true underdog. We’ll wait to see what holds are like this weekend before true celebration but man, what a success story. The movie deserves it, its a ton of fun, even if Kingsley annoyed the crap out of me

 

[Detective Conan]