Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Box-Office Numbers

[InCali]

I wonder if John Campea will talk about this tomorrow in his Shang Chi Spoilers Discussion thread or on his show on Monday if it holds true to form. He has said that he expects Shang Chi will make $45 million but also says that if it makes more, that's fantastic since he loves the movie and thinks it's awesome and he's hoping for the latter but expecting $45 million.

Let me know. I don't listen to John Campea.....like, ever.

 

[InCali]

Got to love how the estimates for this just keep going up which are definitely the signs of a true WOM hit. I can understand why Disney likes staying conservative with their numbers, but man this is looking BIG.

Like I said before, it reminds me of how GotG was received back in 2014.

 

[Shuri]

I'm so glad this is doing well. It's well deserved, what a great movie. I hope it hits 200m domestically and 400m ww. Hopefully in light of this performance, Disney will allow Eternals to keep it's date.

 

[JB33]

EmpireCity is the real deal. He's a numbers insider. He has an account over at Box Office Theory (I myself have been a member there since 2016) and they have a few other "insiders" there too. They know more than the media outlets. I trust BOT far more, which is why I know the numbers are going to be bigger than the $71.4M 3-day number going around. Disney also intentionally lowballs so they can ride the wave of the "beat expectations" headlines.

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[InCali]

I've heard that song before.

 

[JB33]

I'll admit, I was in that camp. Not because I thought it LOOKED bad, but when they announced the Labor Day weekend date I was thinking only with my box office mind and thought "Marvel just miiiiight be dumping this".

So I'm definitely eating crow now. I still don't think releasing tentpoles on Labor Day weekend will become a habit for studios. We have to remember that Marvel is bulletproof at the box office so it's going to attract moviegoers any day of the year. Most studios probably couldn't get away with this.

OR....

I'm entirely wrong and studios are learning a lesson that it doesn't matter where on the calendar you release a film, if audiences want to see it they'll show up. Let's look at the month of February. In recent years it's become a more viable month for blockbusters after being a dead zone (along with January) for so long. First you had FIFTY SHADES OF GREY breaking out to $85M+ opening weekend in 2015, next year DEADPOOL set another February record with $132M+, then of course in 2018 we saw BLACK PANTHER blow up with $202M! Presidents' Day weekend specifically is becoming a coveted slot (I hope DOCTOR STRANGE: IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS moves up to that spot next year, and the next ANT-MAN is already slotted there in 2023).

Heck, September itself has revealed its viability even before SHANG-CHI when Warner Bros. released IT the weekend after Labor Day weekend, which has historically been an even worse slot than Labor Day weekend itself. IT blew up for a $123M opening and ever since WB has used that post LD weekend date for their horror tentpoles (THE NUN in 2018, IT CHAPTER 2 in 2019 and THE CONJURING: THE DEVIL MADE ME DO IT was originally slated for September 11 in 2020).

I won't bore you guys but I guess the point is, studios are testing traditional box office dead zones and they're getting rewarded for it when they release the right films there.

 

[Prison Mike]

EmpireCity is the real deal. He's a numbers insider. He has an account over at Box Office Theory (I myself have been a member there since 2016) and they have a few other "insiders" there too. They know more than the media outlets. I trust BOT far more, which is why I know the numbers are going to be bigger than the $71.4M 3-day number going around. Disney also intentionally lowballs so they can ride the wave of the "beat expectations" headlines.

Under promise and over deliver

 

[InCali]

I'll admit, I was in that camp. Not because I thought it LOOKED bad, but when they announced the Labor Day weekend date I was thinking only with my box office mind and thought "Marvel just miiiiight be dumping this".

So I'm definitely eating crow now. I still don't think releasing tentpoles on Labor Day weekend will become a habit for studios. We have to remember that Marvel is bulletproof at the box office so it's going to attract moviegoers any day of the year. Most studios probably couldn't get away with this.

OR....

I'm entirely wrong and studios are learning a lesson that it doesn't matter where on the calendar you release a film, if audiences want to see it they'll show up. Let's look at the month of February. In recent years it's become a more viable month for blockbusters after being a dead zone (along with January) for so long. First you had FIFTY SHADES OF GREY breaking out to $85M+ opening weekend in 2015, next year DEADPOOL set another February record with $132M+, then of course in 2018 we saw BLACK PANTHER blow up with $202M! Presidents' Day weekend specifically is becoming a coveted slot (I hope DOCTOR STRANGE: IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS moves up to that spot next year, and the next ANT-MAN is already slotted there in 2023).

Heck, September itself has revealed its viability even before SHANG-CHI when Warner Bros. released IT the weekend after Labor Day weekend, which has historically been an even worse slot than Labor Day weekend itself. IT blew up for a $123M opening and ever since WB has used that post LD weekend date for their horror tentpoles (THE NUN in 2018, IT CHAPTER 2 in 2019 and THE CONJURING: THE DEVIL MADE ME DO IT was originally slated for September 11 in 2020).

I won't bore you guys but I guess the point is, studios are testing traditional box office dead zones and they're getting rewarded for it when they release the right films there.

I laugh when I read about people saying something to the effect of "Phase 4 is going to be a graveyard". If MCU starts coming out with crappy movies, then, yeah, but I see no indication that this is going to be the case. In case people don't remember, Iron Man wasn't exactly Batman, Superman, Spider Man, or even The Hulk or Wonder Woman. Neither was Black Panther. Marvel "made" them pretty much A list characters because people liked the movies. It's really not that complicated. GotG? Remember "No one is going to want to go see a talking tree and raccoon"? One of the highlights of IW, to me, was seeing the GotG ship. It was like you were seeing an old friend. As long as they keep making movies that entertain the general public, Marvel is going to be around for quite some time. And, remember, we've still got FF and X-Men in the oven.

When I see those comments, it's like

 

[Comicbookguy339]

So happy the movie is successful. This was an amazing watch.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

There is no excuse for making a crappy live action adaptation of Avatar/Korra now.

 

[psylockolussus]

I just read that with the higher end of predictions for Saturday (23+M), they are now expecting around 75M for the 3 day weekend and close to 90M for the 4 day weekend. That is awesome.

I think Scarlett Johansson just got some ammo for her claim against Disney. I sure wonder what the contract actually says. It does, however, seem pretty clear that D+/theatrical same day openings, substantially hurt BO numbers.

It did. It gave people another reason not to watch it in theaters

Given the box office numbers for this movie, what do people think is the floor for an MCU movie? I'm thinking they could get about 50M if they released Rat Boy.

Not Rat Boy but Squirrel Girl.

 

[Iceman]

Got to love how the estimates for this just keep going up which are definitely the signs of a true WOM hit. I can understand why Disney likes staying conservative with their numbers, but man this is looking BIG.

Yeah it’s always the best sign that WOM is getting out fast. Makes sense as the trailers didn’t hint that the film would be at the level it is overall. The trailers could have been for a far more derivative film with less identity.

 

[Iceman]

EmpireCity is the real deal. He's a numbers insider. He has an account over at Box Office Theory (I myself have been a member there since 2016) and they have a few other "insiders" there too. They know more than the media outlets. I trust BOT far more, which is why I know the numbers are going to be bigger than the $71.4M 3-day number going around. Disney also intentionally lowballs so they can ride the wave of the "beat expectations" headlines.

Yeah, I had lost interest in box office since the pandemic but I used to go there too and the best insiders there are the most accurate source I’ve found for box office numbers.

 

[InCali]

It did. It gave people another reason not to watch it in theaters

Not Rat Boy but Squirrel Girl.

LOL. When I was writing that I thought about squirrel girl. But even rat boy would do 50 million. Lol

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Yeah BOT is an excellent box office forum. I've been visiting that site since the first Avengers movie debut.

 

[psylockolussus]

What is Bot?

 

[Rice Eater]

What is Bot?

It's an acronym for Box Office Theory.

 

[mclay18]

I won't bore you guys but I guess the point is, studios are testing traditional box office dead zones and they're getting rewarded for it when they release the right films there.

The only month left now that hasn’t been road tested for a blockbuster is January. American Sniper opened to $89M 3-day /$107M 4-day on MLK weekend 2015 but that was technically a nationwide expansion of a 2014 platform release.

Sooo… is WB going to move a DC film to Labor Day 2022? Or will Disney/Marvel attempt to make it their new fall spot?

 

[legendkillin]

The only month left now that hasn’t been road tested for a blockbuster is January. American Sniper opened to $89M 3-day /$107M 4-day on MLK weekend 2015 but that was technically a nationwide expansion of a 2014 platform release.

Sooo… is WB going to move a DC film to Labor Day 2022? Or will Disney/Marvel attempt to make it their new fall spot?

I think Marvel can release a movie at any point and it will be a must see. January is suppose to be the "Bad movie month" but if they cared to they could release one at the end. The timing never makes sense since MCU always has a movie in Nov so they wouldn't need a January one.

 

[Prison Mike]

I don’t think this guarantees that Labor Day weekend is a sure shot now. Two things to note is that this was a MCU movie and MCU is a different beast than other franchises. Also, we’re still in a pandemic and travel is down. Delta has kind of forced to people to stay local. In normal times, people would be on their last vacation of the summer season before school reopens.

 

[mclay18]

I don’t think this guarantees that Labor Day weekend is a sure shot now. Two things to note is that this was a MCU movie and MCU is a different beast than other franchises. Also, we’re still in a pandemic and travel is down. Delta has kind of forced to people to stay local. In normal times, people would be on their last vacation of the summer season before school reopens.

For sure. But it's been pointed out that WB actually broke the mold that "there's no blockbuster in September" with their horror films. But Shang-Chi proved that you can successfully open a comic book movie in early fall, pandemic or no.

 

[psylockolussus]

September is a rarity for a Mcu movie. It was only released in September because Black Widow opened in July.

February, March, April, May, July, November would be Marvel Studios' go to months. While No Way Home is a Sony co production. And I can't remember the last time a Mcu movie was released in August since gotg.

 

[Prison Mike]

I think it all started with Captain America: TWS opening in April 2014. It was such a weird thing to me, to open a big blockbuster movie before the summer season starts. I was so wrong…

 

[psylockolussus]

From where I live we used to get Mcu movies 1 week earlier. Then Infinity War/Endgame iirc changed that and they weren't in the first weekend of May.

While te Winter Soldier was probably released in April because Spider-Man and the X-Men occupied May. But without those two, it could have opened in May.