Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Box-Office Numbers

[JB33]

The bottom line is that we'll find out whether China will or won't show these movies. The criticism of China is legit in any case. I find it baffling that any government just bans movies because they don't like them. On one hand, Disney does a lot of business with China. On the other, they regularly act like idiots when it comes to censorship. Can't show the nude scene in Titanic. Give me a Fing break.

I'm suspicious of anyone who defends the CCP.

 

[JB33]

Don't know for sure how accurate or slanted this article is, but.....

'Shang-Chi' fans in China call government decision not to release movie a "tragedy"

When Zhao won an Oscar, the news was censored; evidently due to her criticism. So, here we are.......China proved that the criticism was correct by censoring it. LOL.

Exactly!

I gained some respect for Simu when it was clear he didn't feel the need to tow the CCP line.

Anyway, back to numbers. Still waiting on a Wednesday number. My prediction is a 40% drop from Tuesday for $4.1M. I could be way off though. I compared to how Spider-Man: Far From Home behaved during the week after Labor Day. I recognize that it's not a perfect comp though, given SM had been in theatres since the beginning of July. However it did drop on Monday and Tuesday very similar to how Shang-Chi did.

 

[samsnee]

I thought from the start that there’s a very good chance there will be less than a 50% drop. I think that for a few reasons, first off it wasn’t like it made 200 million the first weekend. Secondly, it has great word-of-mouth and there’s not a lot going on; it doesn’t have a whole lot of competition

That’s what I’m hoping. People want to see this but not in a crowded theater. So that means it will have better legs because people are willing to wait a few weeks.

 

[TheVileOne]

I hope that happens so the people who looked at the weekend numbers and still called it a flop or bomb or said would bomb in weekend 2 will look like even bigger schmucks.

 

[JB33]

$4.61M Tuesday


A bit of better drop than I expected, but so far more or less behaving like SM: FFH after Labor Day. The hope is that the number stabilizes on Thursday. If it drops much further the weekend drop won't be so great.

 

[Detective Conan]

Personally, this article reads to me as nothing more than speculation, but I do wonder if the Chinese government will stipulate that Simu pull a John Cena and apologize for his comments (which I guess are viewed as incendiary in Chinese internet circles) in order to get the movie approved for release there.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

I'm suspicious of anyone who defends the CCP.

I don't know how anyone can defend the CCP at this point. They have literal concentration camps where they inflict the worst torture on people (just read some of the stories from people who've been inside).

 

[InCali]

$4.61M Tuesday


A bit of better drop than I expected, but so far more or less behaving like SM: FFH after Labor Day. The hope is that the number stabilizes on Thursday. If it drops much further the weekend drop won't be so great.

Yeah. You'd expect that after discount Tuesday. My guess is it will stabilize and I can see it doing 35-40M next week. Who knows? Maybe more as we're in rather uncharted territory.

Personally, this article reads to me as nothing more than speculation, but I do wonder if the Chinese government will stipulate that Simu pull a John Cena and apologize for his comments (which I guess are viewed as incendiary in Chinese internet circles) in order to get the movie approved for release there.

Yeah. It's certainly speculation until we get some official word, but I would lean towards it not being released unless someone does or says something to change the landscape. My feeling is if they were going to show it, we would have heard something by now. I hope I'm pleasantly surprised.

 

[InCali]

Another note on the drop this weekend. There is no Monday holiday which will adversely affect the box office totals for Sunday. I think a 50% drop would be a very, very good hold.

 

[Prison Mike]

I’ve noticed that a lot of the articles on Deadline read as speculation rather than straight news (with just facts). It kind of annoys me.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I believe I saw $4.05 Thursday before I hit the paywall. (Edit: yup)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Another note on the drop this weekend. There is no Monday holiday which will adversely affect the box office totals for Sunday. I think a 50% drop would be a very, very good hold.

50% would be ridiculously, eye-poppingly good. I’d be happy with anything around a 60% drop (around $29 million or so) and even that’s probably a bridge too far. But who really knows these days, everything is hopelessly screwed up

 

[InCali]

50% would be ridiculously, eye-poppingly good. I’d be happy with anything around a 60% drop (around $29 million or so) and even that’s probably a bridge too far. But who really knows these days, everything is hopelessly screwed up

I still think it'll come in around 35-40M.

 

[InCali]

I believe I saw $4.05 Thursday before I hit the paywall. (Edit: yup)

That's about what I figured. I think it'll go about 11-12 Fri, 12-14 Sat, and maybe 11 Sun, but it's been on the high end of everything. People can't watch it from home, reviews and WOM are ridiculously good, and it has very little competition. Malignant is getting very, very mediocre reviews, there isn't much of a PR push, and the studio seems unusually quiet. I don't think that bodes well for the movie.

 

[JB33]

I still think it'll come in around 35-40M.

Agreed. I have a more specific range of $37M-$39M, but that's based on a $4.1M Thursday number. If the Thursday number comes in a bit lower, maybe 35-37. We'll see.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It slipped a bit.

 

[JB33]

Yeah, a little steeper than most comparables. It'll be interesting to see what kind of Friday and Saturday bumps it gets. If they're normal-ish bumps then the weekend drop will be bigger than most would like.

Aka....

Friday $8.6M (+120%)
Saturday $12.9M (+50%)
Sunday $10.7M (-17%)

2nd weekend total $32.2M (-57.3%)

 

[TheVileOne]

I’ve noticed that a lot of the articles on Deadline read as speculation rather than straight news (with just facts). It kind of annoys me.

‘Shang-Chi’ China Release Unlikely In Wake Of Old Comments By Star – Deadline

Here's a good example. There's literally no information here that confirms or points to the film not releasing in China, other than Simu Liu making some anti-China comments in a video several years ago talking about why his family moved to Canada.

Like people point to this or the Chloe Zao statements on why the films aren't being released in China...but has anyone at Disney, Marvel, or hell even the powers that be who hold this sway in China that it's not getting a release?

 

[TheVileOne]

It slipped a bit.

It's basically ahead of where Black Widow was at this same point now.

 

[TheVileOne]

Personally, this article reads to me as nothing more than speculation, but I do wonder if the Chinese government will stipulate that Simu pull a John Cena and apologize for his comments (which I guess are viewed as incendiary in Chinese internet circles) in order to get the movie approved for release there.

This is why I hate reporting and articles like this. There's no legitimate source anywhere saying the film isn't getting released in China. There's no information, anonymous or otherwise, from Marvel or Disney saying the film won't get a China release.

Basically, the article reads like this:

UH OH! SOMEONE FOUND THESE OLD COMMENTS SIMU LIU! HE'S IN TROUBLE NOW!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, a little steeper than most comparables. It'll be interesting to see what kind of Friday and Saturday bumps it gets. If they're normal-ish bumps then the weekend drop will be bigger than most would like.

Aka....

Friday $8.6M (+120%)
Saturday $12.9M (+50%)
Sunday $10.7M (-17%)

2nd weekend total $32.2M (-57.3%)

That would still be an excellent hold. Here’s hoping!

 

[eon001]

1. No.
2. Eternals has not been banned either.
3. Once again this is intellectual dishonesty. People are posting clips about comments about communist China and saying China is banning the films due to these comments, but there's no actual evidence connecting that.

Maybe I'm naive, but I want to have more faith in the Chinese government. This is simply bad business. I can't see how long they expect America to tip toe around there sensitivity. It's getting ridiculous.

 

[eon001]

Don't know for sure how accurate or slanted this article is, but.....

'Shang-Chi' fans in China call government decision not to release movie a "tragedy"

When Zhao won an Oscar, the news was censored; evidently due to her criticism. So, here we are.......China proved that the criticism was correct by censoring it. LOL.

This gives me hope. Good to know there is a clear difference between the Government and the people. And also the clowns that said Simu was to ugly to be a lead. Sheesh. ‍

 

[metaphysician]

I don't know how anyone can defend the CCP at this point. They have literal concentration camps where they inflict the worst torture on people (just read some of the stories from people who've been inside).

That's easy: because too many people really don't want to admit that Communism pretty much inevitably leads to megadeath levels of horror and atrocity.

 

[psylockolussus]

China's box office numbers are good to boost the worldwide box office numbers (especially in the pandemic era). I don't think we are going to see 100 million from a single country aside from America (which is already combined with box office numbers from Canada). While I don't remember any American movie grossing over $100 million in Japan. Maybe India in the future, we could Mcu movies grossing over 100 million.

But I'm not sure if Disney is getting much profit from China's boX office gross compare to international countries like South Korea, India, UK and Russia.

Edit: i went to Box office mojo. Aside from China - the UK and South Korea, were the only international countries that Endgame grossed over 100 million.