Shazam Shazam! Box Office Thread | Early Predictions

[TheUndertaker]

If WB is following their own new protocol, I don't see a Shazam 2 or even a Black Adam being more than $200M. If Shazam made $750M or more, I do think that we would have seen a bigger sequel.

I don't think that would be the case even if it made 750M. Even Wonder Woman 1984 will probably have a smaller budget than that. Only Aquaman 2 will probably get 200M or more, and that's only if it's another VFX extravaganza again.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I would expect a Shazam 2 to get the same kind of production budget bump that Ant-Man & The Wasp did, i.e. $20-30 million. If they do Black Adam it could be more to pay Johnson (or alternatively they give him more on the back end).

 

[Erzengel]

I don't think that would be the case even if it made 750M. Even Wonder Woman 1984 will probably have a smaller budget than that. Only Aquaman 2 will probably get 200M or more, and that's only if it's another VFX extravaganza again.

Even if WW84 is $175M it'd still be closer to $200M than it was for the cost of the original $149M.

 

[dhandler01]

I would never expect Shazam 2 to get a massive budget...it would get a modest increase (outside of the increase in salaries) and probably more for advertising. Sandberg has shown he can make a very good film on a smaller budget so why ruin the math by overloading it for no reason.

 

[-Arya-]

Does it really matter all that much if Shazam only gets a modest profit? Couldn’t WB take some of the profit from Aquaman (which is now their tent pole property) and funnel it into a sequel for Shazam?

 

[Mutant 77]

Any chance "Shazam" will reach the 400 million dollars mark?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Any chance "Shazam" will reach the 400 million dollars mark?

Nope. 370-ish is the ceiling.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Japan update. Japan is three days into an eight-day holiday period, Golden Week. Should add another ~$2 million by then end.

 

[Jonwo]

Keep in mind, Shazam is a New Line film rather a Warner Bros film which means their expectations are not the same as the big brother. Considering this is their first DC film, they've knocked it out of the park and I think they can build on that with Black Adam and Shazam 2.

Budget wise, I imagine we'd see a small bump to $110-120m and I imagine Black Adam will have a similar budget. New Line films with a couple of exceptions rarely go over that amount.

 

[psylockolussus]

Any chance "Shazam" will reach the 400 million dollars mark?

No. Its run is almost over.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

Wow!!! 85% of the votes above guessed the movie would make 500 million on up-- only 15% of us guessed correctly that it was gonna end up grossing less than 400 million worlwide.

I guess this is where the disappointmwnt comes from. The sheer number wof movie goers were very low for a comic book movie, I think we can say surprisingly low.

The saving grace is Newline and WB knew better than any of us and were so smart to have a much smaller budget. Thats why ultimately this film has to be conisdered a success. I cant imagine a huge increase w.the budget since this movie doesn't justify one. Its got a winning formula as is....small budget is the safer way to go.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Tuesday:

$560,000 +71% 3,631 $132,100,322

Update: actual:

 

[TheUndertaker]

I was looking for old Deadline articles and even before release they were saying "this is a New Line release with a budget under 100 million so people should not expect huge superhero numbers" and every article about it before Endgame came out was about how it was doing solid numbers, and every trade has been treating it like a success. Unless WB paid them to say the movie is doing well, then the industry agrees the movie did well. It's not a hit, but a success.

Also, there was Toby Emmerich or someone else from WB talking about how they focused the marketing campaign on digital media, and it's true. They did partnerships with youtube channels, etc. I think that could be cheaper. And they mentioned how they really wanted the younger demographic to enjoy it.

And I remember when Wonder Woman came out, Forbes was saying that if it made 500 million it would already be a big win (not just break even). That would be only 3.3x its budget and 1.7x budget+P&A (according to deadline). Shazam is already past those multipliers.

 

[Greenlite]

Wow!!! 85% of the votes above guessed the movie would make 500 million on up-- only 15% of us guessed correctly that it was gonna end up grossing less than 400 million worlwide.

I guess this is where the disappointmwnt comes from. The sheer number wof movie goers were very low for a comic book movie, I think we can say surprisingly low.

The saving grace is Newline and WB knew better than any of us and were so smart to have a much smaller budget. Thats why ultimately this film has to be conisdered a success. I cant imagine a huge increase w.the budget since this movie doesn't justify one. Its got a winning formula as is....small budget is the safer way to go.

I'm pretty happy my prediction of 350M was pretty close, lol.

I'm satisfied with Shazam's box office receipts, with high RT, great WOM and high replay values for cables/rentals for future Christmas seasons, it's a pretty solid investment.

I was just a bit dumbfounded when all the talks here was for 700M+, and I sounded like a hater for calling 350M as a win....and I was getting stuck into for saying how crap the marketing was lol, if they wanted 500M+

But since they went low with their marketing, they probably expected a return like this, thus if it's within their expectation and a sequel is announced within a week, and a spin off production rough timeframe is announced by its star as well.....the future should be bright for this "New Line" franchise

 

[Johnglen]

I'm pretty happy my prediction of 350M was pretty close, lol.

I'm satisfied with Shazam's box office receipts, with high RT, great WOM and high replay values for cables/rentals for future Christmas seasons, it's a pretty solid investment.

I was just a bit dumbfounded when all the talks here was for 700M+, and I sounded like a hater for calling 350M as a win....and I was getting stuck into for saying how crap the marketing was lol, if they wanted 500M+

But since they went low with their marketing, they probably expected a return like this, thus if it's within their expectation and a sequel is announced within a week, and a spin off production rough timeframe is announced by its star as well.....the future should be bright for this "New Line" franchise

This is the problem with all fanbase-driven films. Most people have optimistic expectations about them and if/when they are proven wrong they use revisionist history to still try to prove how their favorite film is a big hit or whatever and get angry with the more down to earth people that disagree with them. Anyway Shazam 2 will happen and I don’t believe that it needs a huge increase in budget. It is a different kind of film even compared to the ant-man movies.

 

[dhandler01]

I was looking for old Deadline articles and even before release they were saying "this is a New Line release with a budget under 100 million so people should not expect huge superhero numbers" and every article about it before Endgame came out was about how it was doing solid numbers, and every trade has been treating it like a success. Unless WB paid them to say the movie is doing well, then the industry agrees the movie did well. It's not a hit, but a success.

Also, there was Toby Emmerich or someone else from WB talking about how they focused the marketing campaign on digital media, and it's true. They did partnerships with youtube channels, etc. I think that could be cheaper. And they mentioned how they really wanted the younger demographic to enjoy it.

And I remember when Wonder Woman came out, Forbes was saying that if it made 500 million it would already be a big win (not just break even). That would be only 3.3x its budget and 1.7x budget+P&A (according to deadline). Shazam is already past those multipliers.

Nicely put

 

[Everett Ross]

Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 3 - May 5, 2019

1. Avengers: Endgame | $168.0M | -53%
2. The Intruder | $13.8M
3. Long Shot | $12.5M
4. UglyDolls | $11.3M
5. Captain Marvel | $5.5M | -34%
6. Breakthrough | $4.3M | -37%
7. The Curse of La Llorona | $3.7M | -54%
8. Shazam! | $2.8M | -50%
9. Dumbo | $1.9M | -46%
10. Little | $1.7M | -51%
11. El Chicano | $1.4M

Box Office Report - Weekend Box Office Predictions: May 3 - May 5, 2019

 

[Mandon Knight]

Weekend Box Office Predictions
May 3 - May 5, 2019

1. Avengers: Endgame | $168.0M | -53%
2. The Intruder | $13.8M
3. Long Shot | $12.5M
4. UglyDolls | $11.3M
5. Captain Marvel | $5.5M | -34%
6. Breakthrough | $4.3M | -37%
7. The Curse of La Llorona | $3.7M | -54%
8. Shazam! | $2.8M | -50%
9. Dumbo | $1.9M | -46%
10. Little | $1.7M | -51%
11. El Chicano | $1.4M

Box Office Report - Weekend Box Office Predictions: May 3 - May 5, 2019

So, into profit after this weekend

 

[SomeOldGuy]

50% seems overly pessimistic. On IW’s second weekend Rampage fell 25% and RPO 33%.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Wednesday estimate:

$355,000 -36% 3,631 $132,447,018

 

[Micromind]

I guess the Worldwide Total must be at (or very close to) $350 M now.

 

[Micromind]

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com weekend prediction: $3.4 million, -39%. More like what I was thinking.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weeken...-second-weekend-long-shot-intruder-uglydolls/

 

[Micromind]

No matter how great Endgame is, apart from MCU fans (who I admit are in huge numbers), regular movie-goers might not think of watching Endgame more than two times (it's a 3 hour movie !) at the same time many people in US haven't seen Shazam !, which means they might have a change of heart and watch it for the first time.

 

[Erzengel]

Except....

https://www.boxofficepro.com/avenge...t-viewings-than-infinity-war-did-on-fandango/