Shazam Shazam! Box Office Thread | Early Predictions

[dhandler01]

No, I agree with him. You're making up your own numbers (100-120 million budget? Most trades settle for 90 million because it's been reported from 80 to 100 million), and using your own "rule of thumb" math, which is never precise and make tons of films lose money even when they were actually successful, including Marvel movies.
The reported break even point by Mark Hughes was around 250 million and Scott Mendelson mentions 260 million it made by the previous weekend as "safely in break even territory".
And here are the sources:
'Shazam' Flies High To $300+ Million Worldwide (Updated)
'Shazam!' Is No More A Box Office Bomb Than 'Ant-Man' Or 'The Wolverine'



There are also tax deductions and product placement deals, as usual.

But what would they know? Obviously random guy on the message board is way more clued in to how Hollywood works than 2 guys who are paid to...know how Hollywood works

 

[8ulk87]

But what would they know? Obviously random guy on the message board is way more clued in to how Hollywood works than 2 guys who are paid to...know how Hollywood works

Whatever suits your feelings i prefer facts.

Im not hating on Shazam i actually liked more than Captain Marvel.

You re the kind of guy who deosnt get simple concept because of his biases.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

 

[Flint Marko]

Genuinely shocked how relatively low this number is so far. I pegged this for a colossal hit, I felt half a billion was the floor for this thing.

It definitely deserved to make more, but I have a good feeling the sequel will more than make up for it.

 

[chicagodave]

I do wanna say i enjoyed the movie ive actually seen it twice, but i understand people saying its overall box office is descent and fine i will concede that, theres no way anyone can be happy with domestic numbers for this movie. The release date was just horrible, i really hope if theres a sequel they release it somewhere where it can do much better. I wouldnt call this a flop but it is underperforming immensely.

 

[dhandler01]

I do wanna say i enjoyed the movie ive actually seen it twice, but i understand people saying its overall box office is descent and fine i will concede that, theres no way anyone can be happy with domestic numbers for this movie. The release date was just horrible, i really hope if theres a sequel they release it somewhere where it can do much better. I wouldnt call this a flop but it is underperforming immensely.

Why cant WB be happy with it exactly? Just because fans are in a dick measuring contest over BO figures doesnt mean the studio has to be. They made a movie the fans like and the critics like and it made money. The studio is happy cause those are the 3 things that matter.

 

[TheScarecrow]

Genuinely shocked how relatively low this number is so far. I pegged this for a colossal hit, I felt half a billion was the floor for this thing.

It definitely deserved to make more, but I have a good feeling the sequel will more than make up for it.

I think its performance falls in the category of “a little disappointing, but in line with expectations”. We’ve gotten too used to the Marvel era where these interconnected films with minor characters make a billion dollars simply because they lead to an Avengers film.

Look at Phase 1 MCU films and Shazam is performing at more or less the same numbers as the non Iron Man films, with a much lower budget.

$500-$600 million was always an outside chance for this film but nothing about it - the budget, the lack of star power, the lack of marketing, the fact it was put out by New Line, the overall tone of it - says that it was intended to gross $600m IMO.

WB will just be happy they’ve managed to put out a critical hit and have another superhero franchise off the ground. Enough people will see it on streaming etc to push up demand for a sequel.

ATM it’s doing Batman Begins-ish numbers off a much lower budget. It’s a franchise builder

 

[kguillou]

Genuinely shocked how relatively low this number is so far. I pegged this for a colossal hit, I felt half a billion was the floor for this thing.

It definitely deserved to make more, but I have a good feeling the sequel will more than make up for it.

In my completely uninformed, non expert opinion i think the movie just was not put in the right release slot. This movie would’ve made a killing at Christmas time or even a Thanksgiving release. Its a holiday movie with holiday feels thats about family...this is the type of feel good movie families wanna see in November and December.

That and Endgame just destroyed any buzz because every since tickets went on sale thats all everyone cares about. It didnt truly get the chance to bask in its release like Aquaman did.

 

[TheUndertaker]

Box Office Mojo's predictions for the weekend. They're putting Shazam at 9.1M which is actually surprisingly good to me (specially because they underestimated the previous weekends so it's not like they are giving it too much credit). It would be a 44% drop. Let's hope they're right or close.
I think even if it dropped 65% (similar to Rampage's drop when Infinity War came out) could be considered ok due to the circumstances.

'Avengers: Endgame' Set for Global Domination, Can It Deliver a $300M Domestic Debut? - Box Office Mojo

• Avengers: Endgame - $300.0 M
• The Curse of La Llorona - $10.5 M
• Shazam! - $9.1 M
• Captain Marvel - $7.3 M
• Breakthrough - $6.1 M
• Dumbo - $3.8 M
• Little - $3.8 M
• Missing Link - $2.4 M
• Pet Sematary - $2.3 M
• Us - $1.9 M

 

[Limonade]

Shoot. The majority of us pegged this thing between 500-800 million.

I just feel that many here are downplaying the disappointment. I mean in retrospect, I guess it makes sense? Given the budget and all... it did alright.

It just felt like it almost never stood a chance to breath. And WB made a calculated decision at the expense of a pretty badass superhero. I just hope it'll pay off with the sequel.

 

[TheUndertaker]

Shoot. The majority of us pegged this thing between 500-800 million.

I just feel that many here are downplaying the disappointment. I mean in retrospect, I guess it makes sense? Given the budget and all... it did alright.

It just felt like it almost never stood a chance to breath. And WB made a calculated decision at the expense of a pretty badass superhero.

Compared to my own predictions it was "disappointing" sure. But then, it's basically a reality check. Just because Deadpool made over 700M on a 50M budget and with estimatives being like half of what it made, doesn't mean any movie can do it, and that's what all the superhero hits were leading us to believe. All in all it's performing similarly to Ant-Man if they were on the same budget/marketing levels, and it's even doing better than Ant-Man in some countries (including mine). After the initial personal disappointment, I think that makes complete sense. I think nobody thought it would be so rejected by China either. That's making a big difference.
I do believe it could do over 500 million if it was released during the Christmas season however. Missed opportunity, but like we have already discussed, that was never in their plans.

 

[TheScarecrow]

Box Office Mojo's predictions for the weekend. They're putting Shazam at 9.1M which is actually surprisingly good to me (specially because they underestimated the previous weekends so it's not like they are giving it too much credit). It would be a 44% drop. Let's hope they're right or close.
I think even if it dropped 65% (similar to Rampage's drop when Infinity War came out) could be considered ok due to the circumstances.

'Avengers: Endgame' Set for Global Domination, Can It Deliver a $300M Domestic Debut? - Box Office Mojo

• Avengers: Endgame - $300.0 M
• The Curse of La Llorona - $10.5 M
• Shazam! - $9.1 M
• Captain Marvel - $7.3 M
• Breakthrough - $6.1 M
• Dumbo - $3.8 M
• Little - $3.8 M
• Missing Link - $2.4 M
• Pet Sematary - $2.3 M
• Us - $1.9 M

Great hold if it goes this way.

It should hold even better next weekend, if Avengers is going to kill it it would be this weekend.

If it holds like this it should come close to catching Ant-Man and end up in the $170-$180M domestic range?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Box Office Mojo's predictions for the weekend. They're putting Shazam at 9.1M which is actually surprisingly good to me (specially because they underestimated the previous weekends so it's not like they are giving it too much credit). It would be a 44% drop. Let's hope they're right or close.
I think even if it dropped 65% (similar to Rampage's drop when Infinity War came out) could be considered ok due to the circumstances.

'Avengers: Endgame' Set for Global Domination, Can It Deliver a $300M Domestic Debut? - Box Office Mojo

• Avengers: Endgame - $300.0 M
• The Curse of La Llorona - $10.5 M
• Shazam! - $9.1 M
• Captain Marvel - $7.3 M
• Breakthrough - $6.1 M
• Dumbo - $3.8 M
• Little - $3.8 M
• Missing Link - $2.4 M
• Pet Sematary - $2.3 M
• Us - $1.9 M

9 would be a stupid good number even without Endgame and coming off a holiday weekend. Anything above 5 I would consider a victory.

 

[Flint Marko]

In my completely uninformed, non expert opinion i think the movie just was not put in the right release slot. This movie would’ve made a killing at Christmas time or even a Thanksgiving release. Its a holiday movie with holiday feels thats about family...this is the type of feel good movie families wanna see in November and December.

That and Endgame just destroyed any buzz because every since tickets went on sale thats all everyone cares about. It didnt truly get the chance to bask in its release like Aquaman did.

Yeah I think that's a great point.

Another thing I didn't even consider until now - it's more or less an out-and-out comedy that does not have much in the way of visual splendor. So it's chances of performing well overseas were never really that great to begin with.

I just feel that many here are downplaying the disappointment.

There are plenty here who live in denial about anything negative in relation to DC, but in this case they aren't exactly wrong for ultimately brushing it aside.

This is a mild box office disappointment, but still a big win where it counts. They needed goodwill more than money. Pretty much everyone who saw Shazam loved it and while the general audience didn't show up in droves like a lot of us expected, they will next time.

 

[Erzengel]

DCEU has benefitted even with divisive showings of still making decent numbers, profits not-withstanding. I didn't think this was going to be a $1B and did peg it more for Ant-Man numbers but surprised that it'll struggle to only the high 300s. Not sure if it's the release date, Endgame, whichever but for a mainstream cbm at even $390M, it's on the low end despite the critical reviews.

 

[Everett Ross]

1. Avengers: Endgame (Disney) $280.0 M $280.0 M
2. The Curse of La Llorona (Warner / New Line) $9.7 M $44.2 M -63%
3. Captain Marvel (Disney) $8.7 M $414.0 M -4%
4. Shazam! (Warner / New Line) $7.0 M $133.0 M -57%
5. Breakthrough (Disney / Fox) $6.7 M $26.8 M -41%​

 

[-Arya-]

The Rock as Black Adam in a sequel would bring in the money. Still not sure about doing a solo BA movie first though. Who knows if it’ll happen

 

[TheUndertaker]

1. Avengers: Endgame (Disney) $280.0 M $280.0 M
2. The Curse of La Llorona (Warner / New Line) $9.7 M $44.2 M -63%
3. Captain Marvel (Disney) $8.7 M $414.0 M -4%
4. Shazam! (Warner / New Line) $7.0 M $133.0 M -57%
5. Breakthrough (Disney / Fox) $6.7 M $26.8 M -41%​

Whatever happens, I really don't want Captain Marvel to go above Shazam.

 

[geosphere]

How interesting. Two reputable forecasters haven't seemed to project that Shazam would fall off a cliff after the release of Endgame. In fact, the hold seems pretty good in both forecasts. Its almost as if those of you that were hell-bent on believing that Shazam wouldn't make a penny more when endgame is released was wrong. Very interesting indeed.

 

[Everett Ross]

Whatever happens, I really don't want Captain Marvel to go above Shazam.

Endgame is boosting CM. It's possible.



Fandango
Since: 2019-04-23 22:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK PERCENT TICKETS MOVIE
1 83.611% 72714 Avengers Endgame (2019)
2 05.937% 5163 Avengers Endgame (2019)
3 02.816% 2449 Captain Marvel (2019)
4 01.502% 1306 The Curse of La Llorona
5 01.076% 936 Shazam!


MovieTickets

 

[dhandler01]

Shoot. The majority of us pegged this thing between 500-800 million.

I just feel that many here are downplaying the disappointment. I mean in retrospect, I guess it makes sense? Given the budget and all... it did alright.

It just felt like it almost never stood a chance to breath. And WB made a calculated decision at the expense of a pretty badass superhero. I just hope it'll pay off with the sequel.

I am not downplaying it, I have no skin in the game I get nothing out of it either way. Having seen it twice I think the amount it has made is about right for what the movie is. I overestimated it because of expectations (which were based on other SH films) but in reality the film itself doesnt really feel like a SH film. Yes there are heroes obviously but it feels to me more like an 80s kid film than it does a post Iron Man Superhero Flick.

And here is the thing, that is exactly what they said they were making. They literally described it as "Big With Superheroes" in every interview since the film was announced. This film was never meant to be anything but what it is, a fun coming of age type story with a kid gifted powers. WB knew what they were getting and marketed it exactly how they should have. That is why the budget was low, that is why the marketing was skewed younger (and cheaper) and that is why they are happy with the returns.

And BTW...if BOM ends up right and it makes $9.1 million (which is impossible since certain experts around here said it would make no money after Endgame) or anything close to it the reason is exactly as above. Shazam isnt trying to compete with Endgame. They arent the same thing and at this point wont even have the same audience. The crossover fans probably already saw it (or never were going to) so they are on their way to Endgame.

And yeah this film would have probably done better (another $50 million I would guess) at Christmas but that would mean sitting on the film for 8 months after the filming is done. Not to mention facing off with Star Wars which is no better than facing off with Endgame. It just wasnt feasible.

 

[dhandler01]

There are plenty here who live in denial about anything negative in relation to DC, but in this case they aren't exactly wrong for ultimately brushing it aside.

This is a mild box office disappointment, but still a big win where it counts. They needed goodwill more than money. Pretty much everyone who saw Shazam loved it and while the general audience didn't show up in droves like a lot of us expected, they will next time.

This is on point. This isnt the Snyderphyles talking about the artistic beauty of films that the mass audience didnt like. Most of us admit we overprojected it but just because WE did doesnt mean WB did. Those of us that have followed this film the past year plus have had these conversations before...we just kinda forgot especially in the wake of Aquaman exploding and the early screenings being super positive. (not to mention the critics loving the film) We got caught up and forgot the reality we ourselves talked about when the film was announced.

That reality was this film wasnt going to make the breakout numbers. The film also wasnt supposed to. Doesnt mean it COULDNT or that they didnt want to...just that they didnt NEED it to for the film to be a success in the eyes of WB. They needed good will as you said. They needed something to get families to want to be a part of the universe. They also needed to have something not tied to Justice League. (even though it is in the same universe) They needed to build, and they did. Sure they didnt make $500 million doing so, but making a profit with good audience scores and a great critic score is something they needed badly...and I say that as someone that likes the DCEU and the Snyderverse part of it.

WB kept the budget low for a reason. WB put it out with New Line for a reason. We the fans got stupid

 

[dhandler01]

How interesting. Two reputable forecasters haven't seemed to project that Shazam would fall off a cliff after the release of Endgame. In fact, the hold seems pretty good in both forecasts. Its almost as if those of you that were hell-bent on believing that Shazam wouldn't make a penny more when endgame is released was wrong. Very interesting indeed.

Well it still could...anything is possible. I doubt it but I also think those numbers might be a bit high. If it hits around there though I wonder if the so called "experts" that were predicting doom and gloom will have the stones to show up and take their medicine Either of the projected holds would be pretty good on their own (as someoldguy said) and if it holds that way with Endgame that is twice as sweet.

 

[Lucellit]

Hopefully WB/ New Line will re-release it for limited time during Christmas.
This movie just begs for big screen viewing at Christmas time.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Another million Wednesday to push it to about 124.9, per BOT.