Far From Home Spider-Man: Far From Home ---- Official Box Office Prediction Thread

What do you think the Spider-Man: Homecoming sequel's chances are at the 2019 summer box office?

  • Above 1 billion WW

    Votes: 64 69.6%

  • 900 million + WW

    Votes: 16 17.4%

  • 800 million + WW

    Votes: 10 10.9%

  • 700 million + WW

    Votes: 1 1.1%

  • 600 million + WW

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • less than 600 million WW

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Total voters
    92
  • Poll closed .
BaelaTargaryen said:
‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ Waking Up Summer Box Office With $150M+ 6-Day Gross – Deadline
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Interesting and I still dont really know how good that is because of the whole 6 day thing rather than a normal 3 day weekend. If it gets to 190 that would be a 99 million Friday-sunday compared to HC and 117 but it didn't have 6 day weekend. First 6 days hc made about 154 million. So if FFM does 190 that would be 36 million more but of course it did have the advantage of 4th of July. So yeah not really a far comparison I guess just thinking.
 
spider-neil said:
Important to make big headway before Lion King drops.
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Yeah I said before its going to be interesting to see how its weekend 2 to 3 drop is has lion king comes out during weekend 3 and lion king is going to be big. I think lion king could make 2 billion got all the people who grew up with it and now have like kids of there own. I expect lion king will be second biggest movie of the year behind end game.
 
Looks like a $100 mil 3day / $200 mil 6day.

Should get past GotG 2 Domestic total of $389,8 mil which is #9 in the MCU.
 
spiderman2 said:
Yeah I said before its going to be interesting to see how its weekend 2 to 3 drop is has lion king comes out during weekend 3 and lion king is going to be big. I think lion king could make 2 billion got all the people who grew up with it and now have like kids of there own. I expect lion king will be second biggest movie of the year behind end game.
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I think people understimate how big of a turnoff the uncanny valley effect of talking photorealistic lions might have on some people. I have no doubt the movie is going to do good but even the trailer for Lion King kinda purposefully avoid lingering on any shot of the animals actually talking. It'll make a lot of people not want to rewatch it, I think. There's just this kind of instinctual thing that can't reconcile an animal that realistic talking like a normal human, but we'll see.
 
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‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ Waking Up Summer Box Office With $150M+ 6-Day Gross – Deadline

FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: Right now Spider-Man: Far From Home is eyeing an estimated $26.5M Friday, +6% over July 4th, and a 4-day running total of $117.9M. Saturday is a coin toss whether this continues to spike with family matinees, or remain front-loaded. The safe projection is at a 2.83 multiple off Friday which would bring Far From Home‘s FSS to $75M. Some see it as high as $81M, so we’re looking at 3-day between $166M-$173M at 4,634 theaters. Like I said before, if this drops down to $150M-$160M, it’s not a mess. It just means that the Spidey sequel was front-loaded. Spider-Man: Homecoming without the July 4th holiday cleared $154.1M in its first six days. Far From Home is cheaper then its previous chapter with $160M-$165M prior to worldwide P&A. Homecoming cost $175M and churned a profit after all ancillaries of $200.1M.
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I have FFS lower than that at 72M for a 6 day total of 164.
A tiny bit frontloaded indeed although it wasn’t expected to increase much today with July 4th falling on a Thursday. 350M finish more likely than my original prediction of 375 though.

A little heads up, same as Endgame, the super wide release for this one is going to affect its legs as soon as it loses screens (starting in two weeks with The Lion King) so it would be a nice change of pace to see people not losing their minds over a couple percentage points here and there.
 
I was hoping for 200m open. Let's hope it legs it out like Homecoming did. Overseas is performing well from what I saw on BOT, so a billion is guaranteed. Just needs 350m domestic, which I think is doable.
 
Invader Joker said:
I think people understimate how big of a turnoff the uncanny valley effect of talking photorealistic lions might have on some people. I have no doubt the movie is going to do good but even the trailer for Lion King kinda purposefully avoid lingering on any shot of the animals actually talking. It'll make a lot of people not want to rewatch it, I think. There's just this kind of instinctual thing that can't reconcile an animal that realistic talking like a normal human, but we'll see.
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I dont think that will be a issue at all. That is why i am looking forward to it so much because it looks so real fells like you are watching a nature film ir something. Also the last few apes movies did good and they lookee pretty real.

BaelaTargaryen said:
‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ Waking Up Summer Box Office With $150M+ 6-Day Gross – Deadline
Click to expand...

Way that is written sounds like they are saying friday-sunday like 160 million but its just oddly written lol

JKKS085 said:
I have FFS lower than that at 72M for a 6 day total of 164.
A tiny bit frontloaded indeed although it wasn’t expected to increase much today with July 4th falling on a Thursday. 350M finish more likely than my original prediction of 375 though.

A little heads up, same as Endgame, the super wide release for this one is going to affect its legs as soon as it loses screens (starting in two weeks with The Lion King) so it would be a nice change of pace to see people not losing their minds over a couple percentage points here and there.
Click to expand...

I remember people lossing there minds when hc had a little bit of a bigger drop in week two than people were expecting and thought it wouldnt make 300 but than it bounced back nicely after. I am hoping for 400. I think 350 would be kind of a dissapointment has that would only be a 16 million increase over hc. Only a 16 increase over hc when hc had a lot going agest it being the second reboot in a short time and comming of spiderman 3, amazing spiderman 1/2 is a lot less than i expected.
 
Yes. But the Apes films did it in such a way in which Matt Reeves made sure to give Caesar very broken and limited dialogue so it didn't feel too weird, some small lines were even changed in the middle of the shoot. Here photorealistic animals are just gonna be flat out talking and singing like humans even though they can't possibly have any human expressions or body languague. On the clips released in which they are shown talking it really doesn't feel like any of the words is coming out of their mouths. A large amount of people might not rewatch it since it'll probably come across as creepy or weird for some people, the human mind for evolutionary reasons is not designed to reconcile animals as realistic as that with human language. Especially animals as hideous as the one Pumba is. Some children might even find it frightening.


I might be wrong but I feel that's the reason that film is not gonna hit 2 billion and Spider-Man will still have some decent legs.
 
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‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ Waking Up Summer Box Office With $150M+ 6-Day Gross – Deadline

FRIDAY PM Writethru after 1:17PM update: In its fourth day of release, Spider-Man: Far From Home has minted its second-best day yet with $32M, way up from the $26.5M we were seeing earlier. Friday jumped 27% over July 4 with a four-day running total now at $122.85M for the Sony release. 3-day is now projected between $83.5M-$90M putting the 6-day opening between $176M-$182M at 4,634 theaters. That’s far ahead of the $154.1M that Spider-Man: Homecoming cleared in its first six days, and that pic didn’t have the help of July 4 (which isn’t always a kind holiday at the B.O.). Far From Home is cheaper then its previous chapter with $160M-$165M prior to worldwide P&A. Homecoming cost $175M and churned a profit after all ancillaries of $200.1M.
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So just looking HC after its first 10 days so 2 weekends it was at about 207.275 million. It will be interesting to see were this movie is at after day 10 compared to it. Day 10 will be Thursday so by than because of the difference in release day HC will have had the normal 2 full weekends and far from home just 1. So that kind of makes up for the 4th of July boost it got. Movies at 122.85 now. So if it can make about 85 million or so in the next 6 days it will be ahead of were HC was after day 10. It I am sure will be but the question is by how much. If it ends sunday at 176 than it would need to make about 22 to stay ahead of HC on Monday-Thursday.
 
So looking at the spiderman movies biggest domestic is spiderman 1 at about 403.7 million. Spiderman 3 has most WW at 890.871 and OS at 554.341. I think WW and OS this will pass spiderman 3 has HC was only about 10 million off on both and this is doing better. Going to be hard to pass spiderman for domestic though
 
This movie will have great word of mouth. I think people will be raving about the sequence in the middle of the movie (you'll know it when you see it - trust me). And the mid-credits scene.
Mind. Blown.
 
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