The 2012 Presidential Debates: 3rd debate

[SuperT]

If you think Michigan and Pennsylvania are "swing states" I got land to sell to you in Florida for real cheap. On the flip side I think it was fairly obvious other in the case of a landslide North Carolina was going Republican

Assuming the obvious Penn and MI go Democrat, Obama has 237 electoral votes. If he wins Ohio he then moves up to 255, which means he needs to somehow get 15 votes between Nevada(6), Iowa(6), Wisconsin(10), NH(4), Colorado(9), Virginia(13) and Florida(29) (Note I rate the states in the order I think they are winnable, NH is the point where I start think they can go the other way)

I'd have to agree, I don't believe at all that PA and MI are toss-ups. Obama has consistently had a comfortable lead, and still does, in both.

I'd have to move over WI from toss-up to leaning Obama as well, he's still leading and that state hasn't gone Republican since 1984 if I remember correctly.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If you think Michigan and Pennsylvania are "swing states" I got land to sell to you in Florida for real cheap. On the flip side I think it was fairly obvious other in the case of a landslide North Carolina was going Republican

Assuming the obvious Penn and MI go Democrat, Obama has 237 electoral votes. If he wins Ohio he then moves up to 255, which means he needs to somehow get 15 votes between Nevada(6), Iowa(6), Wisconsin(10), NH(4), Colorado(9), Virginia(13) and Florida(29) (Note I rate the states in the order I think they are winnable, NH is the point where I start think they can go the other way)

It's all going to come down to Ohio.

Things are going to get ugly in that state.

 

[SV Fan]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

Wisconsin and Nevada are both close.

Rasmussen is a right leaning poll group, so take that with a grain of salt. Simple fact is if you look at all polling places for both states, Obama is even at worse or up.

 

[SV Fan]

It's all going to come down to Ohio.

Things are going to get ugly in that state.

I don't think this will happen but Obama could win by taking Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and one of Virginia or Colorado if he loses Ohio. All that being said if Obama loses Ohio he probably doesn't win Colorado or Virginia(and as I pointed out while NH is winnable that's the state I start to worry it could go the other way)

 

[Excel]

Mitts had a big run the past few weeks, but polls can be misleading. For example, Obama lead in Florida pretty much the entire 2 year campaign up until 2 weeks ago. Same with Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Whether or not Romney truly overcame a year and a half of being in the backseat with one debate is the real question. Romney needs to overtake Obama in just about all of them to win.

It is going to be very interesting to see if Obama can find a way to swing momentum. Romney's surge has has stopped, but he has yet to fall backwards. The first debate has made the President come out more aggressive than previously. Reality is, whether or not Romney gets cut down to size will not be known until the final 5-6 days leading up to the election.

No more debates, its back to what it was in September, when O was pulling away. They have to be hoping for Romney to just put his foot in his mouth one last time, and send it decisively for O.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't think this will happen but Obama could win by taking Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and one of Virginia or Colorado if he loses Ohio. All that being said if Obama loses Ohio he probably doesn't win Colorado or Virginia(and as I pointed out while NH is winnable that's the state I start to worry it could go the other way)

I think Florida is still up for grabs too.

Romney needs both Florida and Ohio.

Obama needs one or the other if he already has PA.

 

[SV Fan]

Romney needs both Florida and Ohio.

Just like Colorado, Virginia and New Hampshire it's up for grabs but I wouldn't say it's a safer bet like Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. Not saying Obama won't win them basically but those seem like much tougher battles

Basically when it comes down to it I think the Mid West is what will win it for Obama, if he wins Florida, Virginia or Colorado chances are those will be "meaningless electoral points" since he would be over 270 without them

 

[Excel]

Romneys clinging to small leads in Virginia and Colorado; if Obama can find a way to recapture one of them, he will be ok.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If I was Obama I would put almost all the money in Florida and Ohio.

Romney cannot win without both.

He could win 85% of the smaller swing states and still lose if he doesn't have both.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Mitts had a big run the past few weeks, but polls can be misleading. For example, Obama lead in Florida pretty much the entire 2 year campaign up until 2 weeks ago. Same with Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Whether or not Romney truly overcame a year and a half of being in the backseat with one debate is the real question. Romney needs to overtake Obama in just about all of them to win.

It is going to be very interesting to see if Obama can find a way to swing momentum. Romney's surge has has stopped, but he has yet to fall backwards. The first debate has made the President come out more aggressive than previously. Reality is, whether or not Romney gets cut down to size will not be known until the final 5-6 days leading up to the election.

No more debates, its back to what it was in September, when O was pulling away. They have to be hoping for Romney to just put his foot in his mouth one last time, and send it decisively for O.

Nothing helped Romney noticeably except for the first debate. Nothing.

The Romney campaign must be scrambling for another, rare advantage.

They will probably resort to mudslinging using endless ads but I don't think it will be enough to push Romney ahead.

 

[Excel]

I believe Obama is outspending Romney in both states. Imo they need to get Michelle and Bill out there. & Obama needs to give a big speech. Nationally covered.

 

[chaseter]

I live in Ohio and as of right now, Obama holds a slim 5 point lead, down from 10 points a month ago, the Romney campaign have been investing millions of dollars and time in trying to win here.
Some of the commercials they are running now, are, well insulting, well, I should say its not them but groups representing Romney, right now there are two commercials from the NRA saying Obama is attacking the second amendment, which in the 4 years in office, and two incidents that made national news, Arizona and Colorado, both giving the president a chance to attack the second amendment, he chose to do nothing and let the subject calm down, its never even been a topic of conversation, yet the NRA runs ads saying the opposite, its the typical fear mongering both sides do to win over people who don't educate themselves on the issues.
Who will win this state its hard to say just yet, as with the rest of the country its really to close to call.

Remember that commercial where Romney supposedly killed that lady?

 

[chaseter]

No atheist would go to Jeremiah Wright's church.

Maybe some... tame generic Protestant church for appearance's sake. But not Jeremiah Wright's church.

He was also against gay marriage until it became politically relevant. Agnostics and atheists aren't majoritively against gay marriage. That largely comes from religious folk.

 

[Thundercrack85]

Well, I don't know about that.

There is secular homophobia.

But, an atheist really can't give a legal argument against gay rights.

 

[chaseter]

The secular homophobia is very small....that's why I said majoritively. It's easier to say the Bible says no to gay marriage. Obama is religious IMO. That's not a negative by any means but he in no way is an atheist or agnostic. Dude said marriage is between a man and a woman just 2 years ago. Now he's for gay marriage for votes.

 

[Thundercrack85]

No, he was for gay marriage. But when he got into serious politics (federal level), he became against it. Now that it's popular, he's gone back to his original position.

Just political pragmatism. Of course, his base when he was a senator was mostly black, very religious, and of course vehemently anti-gay.

 

[SuperT]

TIME's new poll out has Obama up by 5 points Ohio. Also, 51% of likely voters say that Ohio is on the right trakce. May also help O as well.

Was reading that Obama has a 60% lead over Romney is early voting in Ohio as well. Also read that back in 2008, early voting was 1.8 mill and this year thus far it's at 1.7 million.....take from that what you will.

 

[Burgundy LaRue]

I believe Obama is outspending Romney in both states. Imo they need to get Michelle and Bill out there. & Obama needs to give a big speech. Nationally covered.

Michelle is campaigning almost daily. An ad with Clinton is airing in swing states and he has some big campaign rallies coming up. I think Obama is planning to step on the gas in FL, OH, and VA. NC, too, I think.

 

[Paradoxium]

No, he was for gay marriage. But when he got into serious politics (federal level), he became against it. Now that it's popular, he's gone back to his original position.

Just political pragmatism. Of course, his base when he was a senator was mostly black, very religious, and of course vehemently anti-gay.

LOL that's what it is called now? "Political Pragmatism".

 

[SuperT]

Well CNN just changed NC from toss-up to leaning Romney so NC may not be worth the time.

 

[Paradoxium]

I am starting to wonder if there are HFTs on intrade. Obama plummeted to 50% on intrade, before going back up to 57-58.

 

[Kelly]

Well CNN just changed NC from toss-up to leaning Romney so NC may not be worth the time.

Yeah, Pollsters are already starting to pull out of NC and Virginia....

 

[SV Fan]

Well CNN just changed NC from toss-up to leaning Romney so NC may not be worth the time.

If I am correct Obama already pulled out of NC(I think NC is the equivalent of Mich or Penn for Romney....basically fools gold)

 

[SuperT]

Oh I didn't know he had already pulled out of NC.

In another poll (sheesh all these polls) PPP has Obama up 51-47 in Nevada. They say the early voting is giving him the edge over Romney, same in Iowa as well.

 

[Excel]

Yeah, Pollsters are already starting to pull out of NC and Virginia....

Conservative pollers Rasmussen and Suffolk have talked about dropping out of Florida, where Mitt leads by less than O does in Ohio.