The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Joe_Kickass]

What other CBMs would be on par with around a $90 million opening?

 

[Liam_H]

Origins.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Origins.

Well, that's not the most flattering of comparisons. Did Origins also have two major films being released a couple of weeks after its' release? Sony must of seemed confident enough to think they (Godzilla and X-Men) wouldn't have too much of an effect on it, but the foundations that the film looks to be on at the moment don't like all that sturdy.

 

[Mr. Dent]

I'm definitely going to see Neighbors next week.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Spidey might have to worry about Neighbors first.

I don't think it is a might at this point.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Iron Man did 98 million. Spidey 2 (unajusted) 88 million which was a significant drop from Spidey 1's 114 million (so it's not like it's not a tendency) .

TWS, X-Men 2.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

I'm definitely going to see Neighbors next week.

That might hit Spidey pretty decently as well. It's like this movie is being torn apart by horses tied to every angle. It just can't win.

 

[Liam_H]

I believe SM2 was a July 4th release so not comparable.

Well, that's not the most flattering of comparisons. Did Origins also have two major films being released a couple of weeks after its' release? Sony must of seemed confident enough to think they (Godzilla and X-Men) wouldn't have too much of an effect on it, but the foundations that the film looks to be on at the moment don't like all that sturdy.

Star Trek releasing next week, not two weeks, was the reason Origins had such poor legs. Not to mention that the movie was awful.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Iron Man did 98 million. Spidey 2 (unajusted) 88 million which was a significant drop from Spidey 1's 114 million (so it's not like it's not a tendency) .

TWS, X-Men 2.

Iron Man was a risk. A first film in the franchise that no one knew whether it would do well. Iron Man's legs showed people loved it.

Spider-Man 2 opened in June. Not the insanely consistent first weekend of May opening that has delivered time and again.

So, what is next.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

We'll see, I just don't think the GA checks out RT, so I don't think that the current disappointing numbers have a real reason. The Transformers movies are all terrible and yet have down huge business, so I really don't think either that it's a case of the GA being so disappointed by TASM that they take it out on TASM2. TASM was well received overall, not a slam dunk but not as meh as MOS for example.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

As some people say, maybe the overbearing marketing turned some people off, is that possible? Don't know.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

We'll see, I just don't think the GA checks out RT, so I don't think that the current disappointing numbers have a real reason. The Transformers movies are all terrible and yet have down huge business, so I really don't think either that it's a case of the GA being so disappointed by TASM that they take it out on TASM2. TASM was well received overall, not a slam dunk but not as meh as MOS for example.

TASM was not well received overall. The numbers show this. The RT score was bad for the series and the BO was the worst by far, even with inflation, IMAX and 3D.

 

[InJustice]

As some people say, maybe the overbearing marketing turned some people off, is that possible? Don't know.

Chris Stuckmann did say that he was pissed that Sony used the movie's ending as trailer material. Also, his words were that at least 75% of movie footage was revealed through the trailer.

 

[Suzanne78]

We'll see, I just don't think the GA checks out RT, so I don't think that the current disappointing numbers have a real reason. The Transformers movies are all terrible and yet have down huge business, so I really don't think either that it's a case of the GA being so disappointed by TASM that they take it out on TASM2. TASM was well received overall, not a slam dunk but not as meh as MOS for example.

It's a tricky thing, to be honest. My Roku's M-Go includes RT scores for movies that are streaming for rental or purchase, and I think a lot of other online stores include RT scores, maybe with trailers for films and whatnot. So RT is ubiquitous among the review aggregate sites and I think is the one most of the GA consider if that sort of thing matters to them.

But the effects, particularly on these big-budget tentpoles, are really not entirely known. I've read several articles that go back and forth about it, but overall emphasis is on WOM and brand familiarity.

Likely, the fact that Spidey is a well-known brand is maybe bringing in people, but the WOM may not be so kind. We'll see, as I think WOM will become more evident by Sunday and certainly by next week, either for better or worse.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Chris Stuckmann did say that he was pissed that Sony used the movie's ending as trailer material. Also, his words were that at least 75% of movie footage was revealed through the trailer.

I think the biggest thing is that the action is all spoiled in the trailer. Not even the "secret" final battle. It isn't a secret. It is all over the tv spots.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Spidey 2 decreased from Spidey 1, then Spidey 3 did more than Spidey 1.

Attack of The Clones HUGELY decreased from The Phantom Menace, Revenge Of The Sith was much stronger but still behind TPM.

LOTR actually increased from movie to movie.

Desolation Of Smaug decreased from AUJ while being the better movie just like TASM2.

Chronicles Of Narnia decreased hugely from movie to movie.

Terminator Salvation decreased from Terminator 3, let's not even talk about T1 & 2.

MIB2 decreased from MIB1, but MIB3 did the best business of them all.

Matrix Reloaded hugely increased over Matrix, and then Revolutions hugely decreased from Reloaded.

X-Men has been increasing on 2 & 3, and then Wolverine decreased, First Class about the same, THe Wolverine increased.


All in all, there's just a strange pattern with sequels, the most common occurrence being it seems to me number 2 of the trilogy decreasing, and number 3 increasing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Those are not strange patterns at all. Release dates and quality of films are telling in and every situation. As is inflation and sequel anticipation.

 

[JOE]

Hopefully it'll wipe the godawful taste of Godizilla 2000 out of our mouthes lol

Nothing will ever wipe the taste of Simbazilla out of our mouthes.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Neighbors -> Godzilla -> DOFP all back yo back when this would have likely already had bad legs, and no $100m+ OW cushion to fall back on. Yeesh.

 

[Tony Stark]

Iron Man did 98 million. Spidey 2 (unajusted) 88 million which was a significant drop from Spidey 1's 114 million (so it's not like it's not a tendency) .

TWS, X-Men 2.

Spidey 2 released on a Tuesday, so it's not a 1 to 1 comparison.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Neighbors -> Godzilla -> DOFP all back yo back when this would have likely already had bad legs, and no $100m+ OW cushion to fall back on. Yeesh.

You forgot Maleficent.

 

[Tony Stark]

Based on the midnight numbers, I'm going to say it's going to be 89M this weekend. The midnight number was right in-between TDW and Cap2, so I'm guessing the weekend numbers will follow suit.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Based on the midnight numbers, I'm going to say it's going to be 89M this weekend. The midnight number was right in-between TDW and Cap2, so I'm guessing the weekend numbers will follow suit.

It feels weird calling then Midnight numbers. I saw it at 7pm last night and did the same with TWS, PR, and MOS (though that might have been 8pm). They are more Thursday night numbers now.

 

[Suzanne78]

Based on the midnight numbers, I'm going to say it's going to be 89M this weekend. The midnight number was right in-between TDW and Cap2, so I'm guessing the weekend numbers will follow suit.

It could go up a little more on Sat. as it seems to be targeting families… BUT THAT WOM.

 

[TalismanRing]

Spidey 2 decreased from Spidey 1, then Spidey 3 did more than Spidey 1.

Attack of The Clones HUGELY decreased from The Phantom Menace, Revenge Of The Sith was much stronger but still behind TPM.

Phantom came out and rode the HUGE wave of hype and nostalgia from the original trilogy. And it kind of stunk so less people were willing to pay for the 2nd. Then the buzz was that #2 was actually good and #3 was even better and it was the conclusion of the Star Wars saga so they went to see it. I was one of those people - and felt gypped because #3 still kind of stunk.

LOTR actually increased from movie to movie.

Very good to great movies with enormously great WOM.

Desolation Of Smaug decreased from AUJ while being the better movie just like TASM2.

The Hobbit opened as big or bigger than the the LOTR trilogy films but in terms of quality it was a let down. It was a bloated and meandering part one of three parts money grab of a rather slim children's novel. Trust was broken and fewer people went to see $2 even if the reviews were better, especially since they still weren't LOTR great.

Chronicles Of Narnia decreased hugely from movie to movie.

As did the quality and reviews - and a schedule change from Christmas to summer really hurt it.

Terminator Salvation decreased from Terminator 3, let's not even talk about T1 & 2.

Salvation was year later, had different leads - declining quality, poor reviews. Not surprising. Terminator 3 was years too late after 2, was good not great with a lead past his prime and no Cameron.

MIB2 decreased from MIB1, but MIB3 did the best business of them all.

MIB2 was 80min of undercooked cash grab and most people saw that. MIB3 got better reviews and came out a few years later when the stench of II had cleared. In terms of of adjusted B.O. and tickets sold it still didn't do better than the first.

Matrix Reloaded hugely increased over Matrix, and then Revolutions hugely decreased from Reloaded.

Matrix was a movie that started relatively small and had huge legs and became a phenomenon. That buzz and hype crested into Reloaded. It was abysmal - here's where I think RT critics were blinded by love by the first and or on mass hallucinogenics. The audience was fool me once shame on you, fool me twice - not happening. If it had come out years later instead of months though it may have benefited from audience amnesia - but it didn't.

X-Men has been increasing on 2 & 3, and then Wolverine decreased, First Class about the same, THe Wolverine increased.

X-Men three rode on the goodwill of it's predecessors then crashed that goodwill which affected First Class. People still loved Jackman as Wolverine though and gave it a chance and it opened big for a solo pic but it was bad so it had poor legs. The second actually opened far lower and made less in the US even with better legs. WW it made more as WW markets expanded but not that much more and maybe the same or less adjusted.

All in all, there's just a strange pattern with sequels, the most common occurrence being it seems to me number 2 of the trilogy decreasing, and number 3 increasing.

I don't think the patterns are that strange. They usual follow hype, quality and audience expectations.

Now Transformers movies - the expectation is that there are huge robot monster and lots of action. The core audience that keeps going back for more doesn't seem to care about acting, writing or plot so if reviews criticize those aspects they don't care.

Now if reviewers said Transformers 4 had only one action set piece that last 2 minutes and the rest was spent with people polishing the robots and having existential discussions on the role of man in a robot controlled universe - then reviews would affect it.