The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tim_Riggins]

Meh, don't know, there are so many factors at play. Even if the movie doesn't do as well as Sony hoped, I'm not sure there's going to be a change in the sequels to come, I have doubts about the success of Sinister Six though, but the rest will probably stay put.

The one thing for them is to control their marketing budget, they went a bit overboard, 170 M on marketing is madness, although marketing budgets are rarely taken into account and they always add up quite a bit.

 

[PalmerTheThing]

Honestly, I am not too happy with these numbers. I expected a Spider-Man movie to open higher then a CA movie. A year ago, if I saw these numbers, I would be really upset because I thought this movie was going to be huuuge.

Something went wrong somewhere, because these numbers don't add up.

 

[Suzanne78]

To be fair, the weekend's still super early. We have no idea what bump this will get on Sat. It could very well be a huge one to make up for the Thurs. deficiency.

 

[Tony Stark]

Honestly, I am not too happy with these numbers. I expected a Spider-Man movie to open higher then a CA movie. A year ago, if I saw these numbers, I would be really upset because I thought this movie was going to be huuuge.

Something went wrong somewhere, because these numbers don't add up.

Well the jury is still out if it opens below Cap, I'm guessing that it will because all the other numbers have been well below cap. Having said that, in my area there have been a lot of sellouts in theaters. Now that's anecdotal I realize, but still encouraging.

Believe me, no one is more upset about this than Sony, and they need to take a long hard look at what went wrong here.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I just don't see a huge Saturday bump for a poorly reviewed sequel to a film with so-so word of mouth. It better have a huge Friday I think.

 

[Tymminator]

It will be interesting how all of this shakes out.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Yeah, I think China & Asia could help make up for the probable small decrease to come domestic and in other markets.

 

[terry78]

The kids will definitely like it from what I saw. I enjoyed it for what it was, as Spidey has done all that stuff and more in the books.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If comes in under $100m, the domestic decrease will not be small. And Tim, I think you need to read some of the box office predictions. Unless China doubles, it is not going to make up for every decrease, especially if the US numbers come in low.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

I'm following every piece of news on the box office in every country, so it's not like I'm learning anything from you.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm following every piece of news on the box office in every country, so it's not like I'm learning anything from you.

First, salty.

Second, I think you might need help with the interpretation.

 

[BlackFox]

The kids will definitely like it from what I saw. I enjoyed it for what it was, as Spidey has done all that stuff and more in the books.

Yeah a younger audience might be what saves it from being a bad BO situation.

 

[Suzanne78]

I just don't see a huge Saturday bump for a poorly reviewed sequel to a film with so-so word of mouth. It better have a huge Friday I think.

Yeah, I'm torn between predicting a steeper Sat. and a hefty bump on the same day, because these movies do traditionally play to a big family audience, even with so-so WOM…

But then again, there are a lot of different options for families, including NOT going to the movies at all and saving $$$ instead, especially if the weather's nice…

I honestly don't know at this point. No wonder the projections are pretty broad for this movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

To be fair it could have a decent weekend multiplier but I see a big drops for it's second, third and fourth weekends.

I'm saying that I could see a light 2-3% Friday to Saturday drop or increase but not an 8-10% one.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Could go anywhere from 85 to 100 million really.

 

[Suzanne78]

To be fair it could have a decent weekend multiplier but I see a big drops for it's second, third and fourth weekends.

Yep. I think it's legs are going to be weak. When Godzilla hits it, especially if that movie's reviews actually matches up to the hype.

Godzilla even has my anti-theater husband wanting to go see it the weekend it's out. Might have to hit the Metreon for that one.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

From the infamous Nikki Finke:

Midday Friday Box Office: Pre-sales & matinee trends show 'Amazing Spider-Man 2' opening to $35M (incl $8.7M lates) for $90M-$95M wkd.

 

[terry78]

I did hear one little kid with his dad saying he wanted to go see, and I quote "Spima-Man" when they walked past a bus stop poster earlier, so hey.

 

[Suzanne78]

From the infamous Nikki Finke:

Midday Friday Box Office: Pre-sales & matinee trends show 'Amazing Spider-Man 2' opening to $35M (incl $8.7M lates) for $90M-$95M wkd.

I wish tha tFinke wasn't so hell-bent on getting her numbers out so freakin' early… but yeah, this sounds reasonable.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's too early to pay attention to Finke. I don't have any sources and I said hours before that the film should do 35-36mil.

2am my time are usually when decent early numbers come out.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I did hear one little kid with his dad saying he wanted to go see, and I quote "Spima-Man" when they walked past a bus stop poster earlier, so hey.

Kids are so awesome.

 

[Suzanne78]

It's too early to pay attention to Finke. I don't have any sources and I said hours before that the film should do 35-36mil.

2am my time are usually when decent early numbers come out.

Well, yes… this is true also

I do think the range at least is reasonable. But she just has to get her numbers out before everyone else. Oh Nikki!

 

[Suzanne78]

I did hear one little kid with his dad saying he wanted to go see, and I quote "Spima-Man" when they walked past a bus stop poster earlier, so hey.

Mine says "Spide" whenever he sees a Spidey doll/action figure/poster.

And he's been making the "I love you" sign at everyone, but it looks an awful lot like he's trying to sling a web at them too…

This gets even funnier when he wears his Cap shirt and shield as well.

 

[Marvel]

Well, now that I have actually seen it, I'm warning off any friends and family that will listen. I really hated it that much. I can't imagine word of mouth not killing this thing.

 

[terry78]

Anything else to add aside from that?