The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[DarthSkywalker]

I think Neighbors will be competition to Spidey. Nobody on here is really paying attention to it but it has good early reviews and plenty of buzz. I'm sure it won't effect Spidey internationally but here in the states I think it could.

Rose Byrne is in it, so I'll be watching.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Deadline's numbers with the first film don't match up. I'm pretty sure that BOM is not 2 years delayed


They don't match up at all. For example Deadline is reporting that in Russia Amazing Spider-Man 2's $8.9 million opening is up 3% over the first film's opening. However, BoxOfficeMojo's numbers of the first film says that the opening weekend for Russia on the first film is $9.5 million. And in Argentina, Deadline says that the second film's $1.3 million is up 5%, but BoxOfficeMojo reports that the first film opened to $2.2 million.

Last time I checked those are decreases not increases. Also, I don't get how Deadline is reporting that Sony is quite positive with these numbers when you're seeing some rather big decreases in the major markets. Or how they're saying that Japan is a major Spidey market when it opened up to #3 behind a film that has been out for weeks and a local film. And is also down quite significantly from the first film's $7.4 million opening in Japan.

Deadline's numbers on Italy, Turkey, and Venezuela add up though.

Yeah, those numbers sort of contradict each other. But, even if Sony isn't happy with the decreases in those markets, they will NEVER say that or let it leak.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I know people like me have been waiting Especially since the last effort at Godzilla here was ummmm....yeah. That happened.

The monster movie, unlike the superhero medium, is not one I feel we in America have been too successful with. Outside of King Kong, we haven't produced many notable ones. I'll be interested to see if Godzilla finds that audience outside of its niche fanbase with this new one since it seems to have more buzz than most recent American monster flicks. But, much like Godzilla likely will hurt Spidey, X-Men will likely hurt Godzilla.

Something tells me Maleficent is being underestimated, and it might end up hurting Godzilla and DoFP a lot. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is just outside the range of doing real damage, so there is that.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Something tells me Maleficent is being underestimated, and it might end up hurting Godzilla and DoFP a lot. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is just outside the range of doing real damage, so there is that.

Yeah, since this is the Spidey forum, we of course focus on what is coming that can hurt Spidey at the BO. But, Godzilla and DoFP don't exactly have easy rides after their OW, either. This summer is going to be rough.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Neighbors does look great & like it has the potential to break out. I think Spidey will be fine though. Really, worst case scenario, TASM2 does "barely" 700 M WW, they still make money, not as much as they'd hoped but they'll learn to choose a better release date next time.

It's Spidey sure but sandwiched btw Cap, Godzilla having a huge buzz like we said, DOFP (although I wonder if it's not gonna underwhelm as well BO wise), it's gotta hurt.

However, if WOM is good and it seems to be, it could make up for it with legs although most blockbusters are just frontloaded as hell and that's just the nature of the beast.

Better release date, TASM2 probably would have had a legit shot at 1 billion, that or erase Raimi's trilogy from the GA's memory or something

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Deadline's numbers with the first film don't match up. I'm pretty sure that BOM is not 2 years delayed


They don't match up at all. For example Deadline is reporting that in Russia Amazing Spider-Man 2's $8.9 million opening is up 3% over the first film's opening. However, BoxOfficeMojo's numbers of the first film says that the opening weekend for Russia on the first film is $9.5 million. And in Argentina, Deadline says that the second film's $1.3 million is up 5%, but BoxOfficeMojo reports that the first film opened to $2.2 million. Or how they're saying that Japan is a major Spidey market when it opened up to #3 behind a film that has been out for weeks and a local film. And is also down quite significantly from the first film's $7.4 million opening in Japan.

Last time I checked those are decreases not increases. Also, I don't get how Deadline is reporting that Sony is quite positive with these numbers when you're seeing some rather big decreases in the major markets in comparison to the first film. When Amazing Spider-Man 2 needs to surpass the first film by a rather healthy margin and Sony is aiming for a $1 billion total gross, there's nothing to be happy about that.

Deadline's numbers on Italy, Turkey, and Venezuela add up though.

Thanks hippie_hunter. You are completely right on this one. I thought the numbers had adjusted up, but nope you are right.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Neighbors does look great & like it has the potential to break out. I think Spidey will be fine though. Really, worst case scenario, TASM2 does "barely" 700 M WW, they still make money, not as much as they'd hoped but they'll learn to choose a better release date next time.

It's Spidey sure but sandwiched btw Cap, Godzilla having a huge buzz like we said, DOFP (although I wonder if it's not gonna underwhelm as well BO wise), it's gotta hurt.

However, if WOM is good and it seems to be, it could make up for it with legs although most blockbusters are just frontloaded as hell and that's just the nature of the beast.

What's funny though is the 1st weekend of May has been the "IT" spot for summer releases basically since Spider-Man. So, I don't think they really can pick a "better" spot to release the next one. They already had what date everyone, including Marvel, wanted. This May just happens to be one of the bloodiest we have seen in a long time. Just luck of the draw, I guess.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Neighbors does look great & like it has the potential to break out. I think Spidey will be fine though. Really, worst case scenario, TASM2 does "barely" 700 M WW, they still make money, not as much as they'd hoped but they'll learn to choose a better release date next time.

It's Spidey sure but sandwiched btw Cap, Godzilla having a huge buzz like we said, DOFP (although I wonder if it's not gonna underwhelm as well BO wise), it's gotta hurt.

However, if WOM is good and it seems to be, it could make up for it with legs although most blockbusters are just frontloaded as hell and that's just the nature of the beast.

Better release date, TASM2 probably would have had a legit shot at 1 billion, that or erase Raimi's trilogy from the GA's memory or something

If the movie barely makes $700m, they don't make money. They in fact lose quite a bit of money.

And a better release date? Is there a better release date then the first weekend in May? I thought the Holy Grail of release dates were WB's usual mid-July, Memorial Day weekend, and the first weekend in May.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Maybe or we just have to accept that Spidey is not as popular as he used to be with the MCU "stealing" its thunder in a way.

@Darth: we can't be sure, it's a known fact that WB actually lost money on Harry Potter & The Order Of The Phoenix when on paper, the movie had made a lot more money than its budget. Lots of parameters in here.

 

[Donut]

I wonder if Kate Upton can defeat Spider-Man next weekend in the U.S.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Thanks hippie_hunter. You are completely right on this one. I thought the numbers had adjusted up, but nope you are right.

Personally, I think it has to do with a new writer this week just doing a horrible job. Anita Bush usually does it and her assessment was pretty spot on. This person though is just baffling and makes me hope that Bush comes back because she usually does a great job.

 

[Perry9]

Maybe or we just have to accept that Spidey is not as popular as he used to be with the MCU "stealing" its thunder in a way.

Unfortunately, i agree. Mediocracy in reviews and box office results is this series middle name.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Maybe or we just have to accept that Spidey is not as popular as he used to be with the MCU "stealing" its thunder in a way.

@Darth: we can't be sure, it's a known fact that WB actually lost money on Harry Potter & The Order Of The Phoenix when on paper, the movie had made a lot more money than its budget. Lots of parameters in here.

The OotP situation was creative accounting. An attempt to avoid bonuses. That tacked on the cost of other productions. TASM2 cost somewhere between $400-450m in terms of production and marketing. It can't make $700m. If it does, that is a major problem.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Maybe or we just have to accept that Spidey is not as popular as he used to be with the MCU "stealing" its thunder in a way.

I think we're seeing superhero fatigue with non-MCU movies. I think that if Spider-Man were a part of the MCU, there would be a lot more buzz for it going on.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Well, they'll have to control the budget next time, they kind of blew their load on the marketing, they wanted it to be the event, and for now, it doesn't seem to be happening, and yet, the marketing is really good. Superhero fatigue, it's here, I loved Winter Soldier but to me, there is no other superhero as exciting as Spider-Man, if Cap ends up above TASM2 at the BO, I'll be truly baffled.

@hippie: possibly, kind of unfair though, I wonder why that is, Marvel really did some great work with the MCU.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The OotP situation was creative accounting. An attempt to avoid bonuses. That tacked on the cost of other productions. TASM2 cost somewhere between $400-450m in terms of production and marketing. It can't make $700m. If it does, that is a major problem.

While the BO of Superman Returns also wasn't great, the budget of Superman Returns is another example of that type of accounting. Basically, WB put the budgets of ALL their prior abandoned Superman projects onto the budget for SR, which made it seem like the movie was the most expensive film ever made at the time, but a sizeable portion of that was actually Superman Lives and all those projects. Still didn't make a ton removing this, but adding them into the cost made it look worse. Studios do this a lot in order to avoid paying people.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Yeah, since this is the Spidey forum, we of course focus on what is coming that can hurt Spidey at the BO. But, Godzilla and DoFP don't exactly have easy rides after their OW, either. This summer is going to be rough.

I honestly don't get why movie studios haven't learned that they need to release fewer movies. The amount of stuff all of the studios are putting out is crowding everything up and are not letting movies breathe and take full advantage of money they can make at the box office.

But instead of fixing the problem, they're just making it worse.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Personally, I think it has to do with a new writer this week just doing a horrible job. Anita Bush usually does it and her assessment was pretty spot on. This person though is just baffling and makes me hope that Bush comes back because she usually does a great job.

That explains a lot. I have been using Deadline more and more when it comes to reading Box Office numbers as they seemed quite accurate. Hopefully normal service resumes soon.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

It is really true that there are just too many blockbuster movies, it's like they're all stubborn and no one wants to leave a spot to the other guy, there'll be blockbuster fatigue instead of superhero at some point

 

[Spider-Fan]

I honestly don't get why movie studios haven't learned that they need to release fewer movies. The amount of stuff all of the studios are putting out is crowding everything up and are not letting movies breathe and take full advantage of money they can make at the box office.

But instead of fixing the problem, they're just making it worse.

I don't think it is the quantity of releases, and more the fact studios have this invisible rule that May-July is for blockbusters, October is Oscar season as well as horror film season, November-Xmas is a second wave of blockbusters for the holidays, and Jan-April is mostly romcoms.

These arbitrary release strategies restrict what blockbuster films will make more so than how many are being made.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Well, they'll have to control the budget next time, they kind of blew their load on the marketing, they wanted it to be the event, and for now, it doesn't seem to be happening, and yet, the marketing is really good. Superhero fatigue, it's here, I loved Winter Soldier but to me, there is no other superhero as exciting as Spider-Man, if Cap ends up above TASM2 at the BO, I'll be truly baffled.

@hippie: possibly, kind of unfair though, I wonder why that is, Marvel really did some great work with the MCU.

I don't think Cap will beat TASM2 but worse case scenario (for TASM2) they end up with similar BOs. I do agree that Spidey is more exciting to the GA than Cap but TWS is looking to have better WOM overall. I don't actually think there is a Superhero fatigue or else the movies last year and Cap wouldn't be doing so well.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think we're seeing superhero fatigue with non-MCU movies. I think that if Spider-Man were a part of the MCU, there would be a lot more buzz for it going on.

It is no concidence that Marvel Studios now has their own special opening now. It is two years away, but I am so, so curious about BvS. I think that could be the most telling if superhero fatigue is real.

While the BO of Superman Returns also wasn't great, the budget of Superman Returns is another example of that type of accounting. Basically, WB put the budgets of ALL their prior abandoned Superman projects onto the budget for SR, which made it seem like the movie was the most expensive film ever made at the time, but a sizeable portion of that was actually Superman Lives and all those projects. Still didn't make a ton removing this, but adding them into the cost made it look worse. Studios do this a lot in order to avoid paying people.

All these years later, this still blows my mind.

Well, they'll have to control the budget next time, they kind of blew their load on the marketing, they wanted it to be the event, and for now, it doesn't seem to be happening, and yet, the marketing is really good. Superhero fatigue, it's here, I loved Winter Soldier but to me, there is no other superhero as exciting as Spider-Man, if Cap ends up above TASM2 at the BO, I'll be truly baffled.

@hippie: possibly, kind of unfair though, I wonder why that is, Marvel really did some great work with the MCU.

While the marketing budget might come down, I can't think of a reason the production budget would or really could. The first film cost $230m to make after all.

 

[Donut]

Whoever came up with the two week wait for this should be fired as well. If they were afraid of piracy in the U.S. well it happened anyway & Sony deserves what Sony gets

 

[hippie_hunter]

Superhero fatigue, it's here, I loved Winter Soldier but to me, there is no other superhero as exciting as Spider-Man, if Cap ends up above TASM2 at the BO, I'll be truly baffled.

I won't be baffled. The Winter Soldier is one of the best superhero films made and it opened up to incredibly weak competition. Quality and scheduling goes a long way and it's why Avengers and Iron Man 3 made so much money, and became the highest grossing films of the year when they were released in 2014 and 2013. Amazing Spider-Man 2 on the other hand ended up opening two weeks in America after being released internationally (piracy claims are legitimate for this one because of this boneheaded move), doesn't have as strong a word of mouth, and has a schedule stuffed with Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Neighbors (a good comedy counterprogram IMO), and Maleficent.

And this has nothing to go against Spidey. I love Spidey and I like him more than the character of Captain America. I even think that Andrew Garfield is an excellent Spider-Man. But when you look at the economics of it, it just favors Captain America more right now. And it's a reason why I want Spider-Man to go back to Marvel. Kevin Feige will take care of the character far better than Sony ever will and I think under Disney, we'll finally see the $1 billion Spider-Man film.

@hippie: possibly, kind of unfair though, I wonder why that is, Marvel really did some great work with the MCU.

I think a lot of it has to do with Disney. Ever since they bought Marvel and took over production of the films, the Marvel Studios films don't look cheap anymore. And Disney's marketing team is just top notch when they actually use it to promote their IPs.

 

[Spider-Fan]

While the marketing budget might come down, I can't think of a reason the production budget would or really could. The first film cost $230m to make after all.

Factor in all the hype surrounding the Sinister Six in the franchise, and I don't forsee the budget being controlled anytime soon, either. When you're planning on using six supervillains, that is going to make the budget pop up like a balloon.