The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[starkresilient]

a week ago I was sure this could open over 100M because the cast was gonna start their US tour but for now I don't see that much hype around. I wouldn't surprise if it does under CAP2's OW

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

With little to no competition, i don't think it could open to numbers less than Caps.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I keep going back and forth. I'm now thinking 85-95mil. I still wouldn't be surprised if it opened over 100mil though.

I SEE SPIDEY is getting gun shy.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I SEE SPIDEY is getting gun shy.

Why do you say that sir?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Why do you say that sir?

Because your range keeps moving down, but with a disclaimer.

 

[Mr.M]

What's funny though is the 1st weekend of May has been the "IT" spot for summer releases basically since Spider-Man. So, I don't think they really can pick a "better" spot to release the next one. They already had what date everyone, including Marvel, wanted. This May just happens to be one of the bloodiest we have seen in a long time. Just luck of the draw, I guess.

Time for Arad to call up Feige and start talking crossover? I kid, I kid... or am I?

 

[JOE]

Sony is holding on to Spider-Man with their death grip. I can't see why they wouldn't want a small piece of a huge pie instead of an entire smaller pie...

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Because your range keeps moving down, but with a disclaimer.

Damn your reading comprehension abilities!

What's stopping me from predicting the 89 million that I want to predict is that it has a great release date and absolutely no real competition. I just think that simple fact could help it along and get it near or a bit over 100mil. I might just go for it and predict what I want on Wednesday, if the film opens above that, so be it.

 

[Mr.M]

What are the projections at the moment? 100 million OW just isn't enough. I would have expected 110 or 120 tops, but less than 100 million? That's a death knell.

Sony has no one to blame but themselves. If they had to retain the rights by rebooting in 2012, then they had to do it. But I think it would have been wiser trying to work out an extension. It's just too soon and its going up against too many CB films. But Sony probably couldn't wait on it.

Spiderman also cannot take too much time off between films due to actors aging. This hurt Spidey 3 and they had to shoehorn everything in that film to wrap it up. With a two year layoff between films, you keep the actors young and ripe. But what the three year layoffs provide is more time to avoid audience fatigue and franchise breathers.

But clearly, I don't think anything more could have been done. They lost all regard for the budget and if ends up costing them, so be it. 255 million? Are they serious? I can't believe that... without marketing no less.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Damn your reading comprehension abilities!

What's stopping me from predicting the 89 million that I want to predict is that it has a great release date and absolutely no real competition. I just think that simple fact could help it along and get it near or a bit over 100mil. I might just go for it and predict what I want on Wednesday, if the film opens above that, so be it.

I know exactly what you mean. The situation tells you it should do better, but the general vibe feels otherwise.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Had it opened everywhere at same time i think the movie would have made more, because its the states that they really need this to do well in and all the spoilers are already getting out and spreading and its already bootlegged, many are giving them them out intentionally, i assume to be jerks

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Had it opened everywhere at same time i think the movie would have made more, because its the states that they really need this to do well in and all the spoilers are already getting out and spreading and its already bootlegged, many are giving them them out intentionally, i assume to be jerks

These are excuses. If the movie opens up low, this won't be a reason. The two week gap is extreme, but if people want to go to the theater and see it, they will. The last 4 MCU films proved that by opening OS first and then doing strong in the US.

 

[GuestStar2004]

These are excuses. If the movie opens up low, this won't be a reason. The two week gap is extreme, but if people want to go to the theater and see it, they will. The last 4 MCU films proved that by opening OS first and then doing strong in the US.

not when the selling points for this movie have gotten out in advanced, gwens fate was mean't to be a selling point and that was also the big ending, many are gonna feel well i seen it now so why bother now

john campea from AMC has spoken about getting floods of spoilers since the film opened here in UK, people intentionally creating accounts just to do it, it was said in his friday video i believe

i know you will likely say its bad reviews because thats what you been backing up the last few days

 

[Ms. Marvel]

By that logic people would have avoided IM3 after finding out about the Mandarin.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

not when the selling points for this movie have gotten out in advanced, gwens fate was mean't to be a selling point and that was also the big ending, many are gonna feel well i seen it now so why bother now

john campea from AMC has spoken about getting floods of spoilers since the film opened here in UK, people intentionally creating accounts just to do it, it was said in his friday video i believe

i know you will likely say its bad reviews because thats what you been backing up the last few days

Didn't hurt the Avengers, didn't hurt IM3, didn't hurt TWS.

Lets be honest here. If the movie is as hyped, as desired as many have made it out to be here, these things would not matter. If anything, it would be getting people more hyped. The two weeks is extreme, but it wouldn't hurt the film to that degree.

The only way the early release and leaks matter, is if people aren't liking what they see and hear, and it is turning them off from seeing it. In which case, that is bad WOM.

 

[GuestStar2004]

By that logic people would have avoided IM3 after finding out about the Mandarin.

yeah but that wasn't the big climax, if i had read that i'd be even more curious who the real villain is

 

[GuestStar2004]

Didn't hurt the Avengers, didn't hurt IM3, didn't hurt TWS.
.

the avengers was glowing in reviews and there wasn't really any big kinda selling plot point it was just big action comic book movie that nothing really could be spoilt with

IM3 was the first to come off the avengers with RDJ it was always gonna have that back up, and as for TWS again it has the avengers backing it up, even thor made more because of the avengers

TASM franchise is a different beast altogether, it came off an already asablished series, sony decided to hint to big plot points and use them to sell the movie but once they get out on the internet they are gonna take the joy away from actually seeing it at the cinema

 

[DarthSkywalker]

the avengers was glowing in reviews and there wasn't really any big kinda selling plot point it was just big action comic book movie that nothing really could be spoilt with

And the difference here is that the Avengers was loved by the critics. Isn't that a problem with TASM2? That it already has more negative and lukewarm reviews?

IM3 was the first to come off the avengers with RDJ it was always gonna have that back up, and as for TWS again it has the avengers backing it up, even thor made more because of the avengers

And how is this not a problem with TASM franchise as whole? That the anticipation isn't as high?

TASM franchise is a different beast altogether, it came off an already asablished series, sony decided to hint to big plot points and use them to sell the movie but once they get out on the internet they are gonna take the joy away from actually seeing it at the cinema

Do you really think whether or not Gwen dies in this film swings the box office that much? If the movie is well received by the critics and general audience, if it has great WOM, why would that matter?

 

[Leenie]

If I had to predict how opening weekend in the United States will go ...

The first weekend of May is one of the biggest weekends of the year for the movies, as it kicks off the Summer blockbuster season. That might work in Spidey's favor. I don't think the general audience is as enthusiastic about the character as they used to be, though. On the higher end, I'm predicting $105 million on opening weekend. On the lower end, I'm predicting $75 million.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I'm still thinking $100-105 million... Anything below that would be a serious disappointment for Sony.

 

[JOE]

Iron Man- $98M OW May 2nd
Iron Man 2- $128M OW May 7th
Thor- $68M OW May 6th
The Avengers- $207M OW May 4th
Iron Man 3- $174M OW May 3rd
The Avengers: Age of Ultron- $TBDM OW May 1st

All early May releases, and that's only the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Two of the Raimi films, coincidentally the highest grossing, were also May releases.

Spider-Man- $114M OW May 3rd
Spider-Man 3- $151M OW May 4th

Can whoever thinks about posting how, "they picked a crappy release date" read my post and then delete whatever they were about to ignorantly clutter the boards with? Thanks.

 

[grieven]

There is a lot of solemnity over how much this movie cost to make and market, and how much Sony has to make on it before it's considered a disastrous loss.

One thing I haven't heard about in the articles being written is how much of the marketing might be absorbed from promotional partners. I have read that other expensive movies (I think MOS and Smurfs2 among them) had a huge part of their expenses paid for by fast food chains, soda companies, etc, before the movie was ever released. I'm pretty sure TASM2 has a lot of $ coming from promotional partners (McDonalds and whatever else). I wonder if much of the hefty costs of promoting the film that is constantly cited isn't absorbed by companies other than Sony?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There is a lot of solemnity over how much this movie cost to make and market, and how much Sony has to make on it before it's considered a disastrous loss.

One thing I haven't heard about in the articles being written is how much of the marketing might be absorbed from promotional partners. I have read that other expensive movies (I think MOS and Smurfs2 among them) had a huge part of their expenses paid for by fast food chains, soda companies, etc, before the movie was ever released. I'm pretty sure TASM2 has a lot of $ coming from promotional partners (McDonalds and whatever else). I wonder if much of the hefty costs of promoting the film that is constantly cited isn't absorbed by companies other than Sony?

That has been seemingly factored in. Which is why deadline is reporting around $750m for break even. If not we'd be looking at somewhere closer to $900m.

 

[grieven]

That has been seemingly factored in. Which is why deadline is reporting around $750m for break even. If not we'd be looking at somewhere closer to $900m.

Really?

If MOS and Smurfs2 had most of their marketing covered by promo partners, and TASM2's marketing cost $220 mil after factoring partners (McDonald's, USPS, Evian, cereals, etc), that's crazy!

 

[venom892]

I agree the first weekend in May is generally gold, which why we are seeing WB and Marvel in a pissing contest over the 2016 date. If this makes less than 100 million OW, it''l be due to lukewarm reception and nothing to do with the release date.I'm not sure how the movie is going to do box office wise, but I do feel it'll need a strong OW to outgross ASM as Godzilla and DOFP both have buzz and could really affect it's legs. Hell even Neighbors has a lot of positive buzz with critics giving glowing reviews. That might take some oF Spidey's money as well.