The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[zipzip]

Just wait for golden week.

 

[grieven]

They maybe wanted the buzz to help, but it seems like it may have backfired. From what I've seen, the movie seems to be well received by the GA, but to many, it will probably be just another superhero movie releasing only ONE MONTH after Captain America, they maybe should have released it later, around summer.

Hell, I don't know, I love Spidey to death so I don't care about Cap America being released a month before, but it seems obvious people are not rushing to see it as I thought they would, the WOM will probably be better than for TASM, so who knows, it might end up catching up.

I hope positive WOM will help TASM2 at least equal TASM1 boxoffice, but I'm extremeley nervous as everyone is. I think the overperformance of TWS and the unexpected (to me) major buzz over Godzilla is really hurting its prospects, not to mention DOFP looming which everyone knew could be a major impact.

On the surface, this competition doesn't sound as formidable as 2012's in TA and TDKR, but along with major releases internationally like the record breaker in Spain, the competition for audience attention seems like it could be just as bad this time around.

The bottom line is whether this movie is what wide audiences want to see. Over-marketing, competition, etc provide some excuse for underperformance, but if boxoffice is way low on the end, I'm afraid it would speak to whether audiences are interested in seeing this incarnation of our favorite webhead. I believe before this spring, Spider-Man was inarguably a bigger franchise around the globe than Captain America. Can the same be said after this summer? I hope so.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

Wow. TASM2 hit $132M already, overseas.

 

[Perry9]

Wow. TASM2 hit $132M already, overseas.

That's good........ right?

 

[White_Knight191]

That's good........ right?

Having that amount from 32 territories of the 45, I don't know... But the big regions still have to get it, so we'll see I guess. We still have China, France, Brazil and the US coming.

As of now, I think this movie will get around $750-800 million in total.

 

[Perry9]

Having that amount from 32 territories of the 45, I don't know... But the big regions still have to get it, so we'll see I guess.

As of now, I think this movie will get around $750-800 million in total.

I predict somewhere around 850-900. There are some HUGE markets that haven't opened yet.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Too optimistic Perry, it's decreasing in quite a few markets, not major ones though to be honest, UK is slightly ahead, and SK will either equal TASM or be slightly ahead, got to wait for the actual weekend tallies first.

I think China will be good for it, domestic, if it follows the rule of sequels, it should do less, but I'm thinking it'll stay flat. In Germany, it's down too, but let's hope it gets good legs, Hong Kong should be very strong according to presales, we'll see for the rest.

Japan being down is very surprising for Spidey. I'm not even sure it's the reboot problem, TASM was overall well received, superhero overdose, they should have spaced it out, release it in the summer. It may well be Spider-Man, but still, competition is strong, and the GA already got a superhero dose a month ago with Captain America.

750-800 M WW seems like a good guess to me. I don't even know why we're freaking out over the BO, it will do bank, probably not as much as Sony hoped, but maybe they'll try to control the budget a bit more on the sequels, movies are extremely expensive to make for a lot of reasons, but still.

 

[GuestStar2004]

they put alot into marketing... not sure where the money went tbh but apparently they did

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Sony has over marketed the film. Yes of course it's still going to make money for the them but I hope they don't spend as much on the spin off movies they plan on making.

 

[hippie_hunter]

But it had built a strong interest in the general audience, once you start over again and tell them the previous films no longer matter they simply lose interest.

I disagree. I don't think that audiences care whether or not a franchise is rebooted. Look at how well Batman, James Bond, Star Trek, and others have done. As long as a film is good, audiences aren't going to care about a reboot or not.

I think that there are multiple factors to take into account:

Superhero fatigue - There are a lot of people who like to claim that superhero fatigue is just around the corner, but if you look at how well a lot of recent superhero films that's just flat out wrong and superheroes right now are the king of the box office.

However, there are some validity to these claims because just about any non-Marvel/DC property tends to fizzle away. And even then the Marvel films not associated with Marvel Studios and some DC properties have shown troubling trends.

People are loving superhero films.....but just the ones associated with the Marvel Studios films. And maybe the upcoming Man of Steel centric DC films. But X-Men and Spider-Man are still showing signs of diminishing returns.

Too Much Competition - Disney has played it smart with their Marvel films. Avengers, Iron Man 3, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier were all released when there was little competition. That on top of word of mouth allowed them to dominate the box office. The only one I question is where they scheduled Thor: The Dark World.

Amazing Spider-Man 2 on the other hand is being released the same month as Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Maleficent.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Possible, I don't think it was needed, they allegedly spent around 190 million for marketing, sweet jesus

 

[Perry9]

Possible, I don't think it was needed, they allegedly spent around 190 million for marketing, sweet jesus

We'll see in the long term if that paid off.

 

[Spider-Fan]

We'll see in the long term if that paid off.

We'll know more based on how it performs this upcoming week in the bigger markets, but right now, it looks like it isn't paying off to the extent Sony was hoping. The movie is tracking to make similar money as the last one, on a higher budget and with more marketing costs. Not really paying off. I think the piracy thing is really hurting the film, too. Cap 2 only had a week between the bigger markets and the international ones. Sony gave this 2 weeks. Americans are impatient, and I think piracy is playing a factor. Can't space these out TOO much between major releases.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I think that it's all going to come down to US and China. I can't imagine Sony being very joyous with the current numbers right now.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't get the two week gap either. It feels like the movie should have come out this weekend here in the U.S.

 

[Lord]

I disagree. I don't think that audiences care whether or not a franchise is rebooted. Look at how well Batman, James Bond, Star Trek, and others have done. As long as a film is good, audiences aren't going to care about a reboot or not.

Every time i go into a cinema and the new Spider-Man trailers come around i see people talking about how they don't like the new actors, or the new story, etc. Batman was coming out 7 years after the miserable failure of Batman & Robin, that one did so badly because even the general public didn't like it, unlike with Spider-Man 3, which was relativelly popular. And Batman Begins still didn't do very well, it was due to the positive word of mouth from that film, then The Dark Knight had a very strong marketing campaign and the Joker was being very well received by those that had seen the movie already, it built interest around a major film release.

James Bond constantly changes actors, many didn't even realise it was a reboot because the continuity of that film series isn't the thightest, Star Trek was already dying and many didn't really care for the old continuity, it was simply promoted as a great science fiction action epic and worked due to that.

Those were not like Spider-Man, where they rebooted while the franchise was still popular and had already built strong legs with the general public, and then gave 2 films that aren't exactly the best received. From what i see, personal experience and research on the web, it is indeed being a major reason for why these films aren't making as much as the previous ones, even with the boost of 3D and IMAX.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think that it's all going to come down to US and China. I can't imagine Sony being very joyous with the current numbers right now.

Agreed, and with both Godzilla and X-Men just around the corner, I am not optimistic about the legs this film will have. While neither of those is like when TASM faced TDKR 2 weeks later, it faces 2 big movies with the same type of fanbase in 2 straight weeks. That is going to hurt. It needs to frontload those 1st 2 weeks and hope for good WOM.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

@ Spider-Fan, maybe, that 2 week space might bite them in the ass, it'll still make money but they'll probably rethink the strategy for the sequels. Anyway, it's still very early, the marketing although too much was still really good, shouldn't forget that.

 

[Spider-Fan]

@ Spider-Fan, maybe, that 2 week space might bite them in the ass, it'll still make money but they'll probably rethink the strategy for the sequels. Anyway, it's still very early, the marketing although too much was still really good, shouldn't forget that.

They should. When I hear American people in the streets talking about a movie that isn't out for 2 weeks in theaters, there is a problem.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

They should. When I hear American people in the streets talking about a movie that isn't out for 2 weeks in theaters, there is a problem.

That would seem to indicated interest. Not a bad thing.

 

[BlackFox]

Agreed, and with both Godzilla and X-Men just around the corner, I am not optimistic about the legs this film will have. While neither of those is like when TASM faced TDKR 2 weeks later, it faces 2 big movies with the same type of fanbase in 2 straight weeks. That is going to hurt. It needs to frontload those 1st 2 weeks and hope for good WOM.

Why did they delay the release in the US, were they more afraid of Cap2 before it rather than Godzilla/DOFP after?

It seems like a really odd decision from the outside???

 

[Spider-Fan]

That would seem to indicated interest. Not a bad thing.

Not when they talk plot points and about the movie itself (as in, they saw it). Then that becomes money Sony will not be getting.

 

[hippie_hunter]

That would seem to indicated interest. Not a bad thing.

I think he means talking about specific scenes about the movie before it's released, not general interest in the movie before it's released. That's a bad thing because it means people have already seen it without paying for it.

 

[miltonh]

I think 80-90 from China could be possible and I'd be very surprised if ASM2 doesn't decrease in North America.

Domestic: 240M
Overseas: 470M

My prediction.

 

[MrMaooz]

I predict a 2.9 billion dollar gross.