The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[hippie_hunter]

I think 80-90 from China could be possible and I'd be very surprised if ASM2 doesn't decrease in North America.

Domestic: 240M
Overseas: 470M

My prediction.

I'm thinking $240 million for domestic as well. I think that without the Marvel Studios label, Spider-Man is just going to continue to be a franchise of decreasing returns for Sony, just like how X-Men is for Fox. Although I think the international box office will be higher. I think we'll be seeing higher box office numbers overseas thanks to the excellent strength of the Chinese box office. So just like how X-Men is a franchise of decreasing returns domestically, but improves internationally, I think we'll see the same here where international box office improves. I'm thinking $500+ million

However, based on how the film has performed so far in Japan, the United Kingdom, Russia, Australia, and Mexico, I'm starting to question my original thoughts. So far the only really happy spots are Germany and South Korea.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think that it's all going to come down to US and China. I can't imagine Sony being very joyous with the current numbers right now.

Yep. If it kills in the US and China it doesn't really matter. Though Sony, like others ,doesn't make much off the Chinese box office.

Agreed, and with both Godzilla and X-Men just around the corner, I am not optimistic about the legs this film will have. While neither of those is like when TASM faced TDKR 2 weeks later, it faces 2 big movies with the same type of fanbase in 2 straight weeks. That is going to hurt. It needs to frontload those 1st 2 weeks and hope for good WOM.

DoFP will get its money. If Godzilla blows up, that is going to cut TASM2 legs right away. But Godzilla pulls a STID in terms of BO, its impact could be small.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

So how much do we think Godzilla will hurt Spider-Man's legs in China?

 

[Lord]

In half

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So how much do we think Godzilla will hurt Spider-Man's legs in China?

Is there even a confirmed release date for China yet?

 

[Joe_Kickass]

So basically, one billion is pretty improbable at this point? Sony probably should have cut back on the marketing then. If it only manages numbers around the first one then I don't see them being very happy. Where did all the confidence go? Lol

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So basically, one billion is pretty improbable at this point? Sony probably should have cut back on the marketing then. If it only manages numbers around the first one then I don't see them being very happy. Where did all the confidence go? Lol

Improbable? Yes. But it is still a possibility. The markets that can make it happen almost single handily are still to come.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

So basically, one billion is pretty improbable at this point? Sony probably should have cut back on the marketing then. If it only manages numbers around the first one then I don't see them being very happy. Where did all the confidence go? Lol

The international number are just too uneven... even decreasing from the first film in some places.

It's just not an amazing start and considering how much money Sony has pumped into this, I doubt they'll be happy.

 

[miltonh]

So how much do we think Godzilla will hurt Spider-Man's legs in China?

Looks like Godzilla's premiere will move to June but they'll have some local movies...

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The international number are just too uneven... even decreasing from the first film in some places.

It's just not an amazing start and considering how much money Sony has pumped into this, I doubt they'll be happy.

After reading the Deadline article, it looks like most places didn't decrease overall for the weekend, but in the end rather small gains or holding steady.

 

[miltonh]

I'm thinking $240 million for domestic as well. I think that without the Marvel Studios label, Spider-Man is just going to continue to be a franchise of decreasing returns for Sony, just like how X-Men is for Fox. Although I think the international box office will be higher. I think we'll be seeing higher box office numbers overseas thanks to the excellent strength of the Chinese box office. So just like how X-Men is a franchise of decreasing returns domestically, but improves internationally, I think we'll see the same here where international box office improves. I'm thinking $500+ million

However, based on how the film has performed so far in Japan, the United Kingdom, Russia, Australia, and Mexico, I'm starting to question my original thoughts. So far the only really happy spots are Germany and South Korea.

Not so sure about South Korea... 5-day opening under ASM1 4-day and one big local movie will premiere this wednesday. Plus ASM1 had great legs there (2nd weekend drop less than 2%). In Germany, OW was great but now it looks like 2nd weekend drop is close to 50% (ASM1 30% and great legs - 3rd weekend INCREASE).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think I predicted over 500mil for it's international number and it could definitely still get over that number.

 

[Mr. Dent]

This was posted on BO Forums

TASM ll | CA: TWS | % | Market

06.195 M | 15.297 M | 040.5% | AUSTRALIA

00.655 M | 01.281 M | 051.1% | AUSTRIA

00.884 M | 01.474 M | 060.0% | BELGIUM

00.095 M | 00.301 M | 031.6% | BULGARIA

00.883 M | 01.742 M | 050.7% | DENMARK

06.096 M | 11.134 M | 054.8% | GERMANY

06.500 M | 09.068 M | 071.7% | ITALY

05.200 M | 01.937 M | 268.5% | JAPAN

19.500 M | 23.326 M | 046.2% | MEXICO

08.900 M | 12.573 M | 070.8% | RUSSIA

03.873 M | 07.150 M | 054.2% | SPAIN

01.036 M | 01.937 M | 053.5% | SWEDEN

04.100 M | info, anyone? | TAIWAN

27.800 M | 27.904 M | 054.2% | UNITED KINGDOM

00.144 M | 00.204 M | 070.6% | URUGUAY

01.500 M | 07.063 M | 021.2% | VENEZUELA

So it basically did worse than Cap 2 in every market other than Japan, which isn't saying much.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Those are TWS totals so far, against a weekend or two of TASM2. No comparison to be made.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

SK 5 day OW should actually be slightly ahead of TASM 4 day.

 

[Spider-Fan]

DoFP will get its money. If Godzilla blows up, that is going to cut TASM2 legs right away. But Godzilla pulls a STID in terms of BO, its impact could be small.

True, but I think Godzilla is going to perform slithly better than expected. Not outrageously, but slightly.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

True, but I think Godzilla is going to perform slithly better than expected. Not outrageously, but slightly.

I think WOM and reviews are going to be key here. Godzilla could get a real boost if it is considered great. It definitely has the look and I think the marketing has been strong. It just needs the stamp of approval imo.

 

[hippie_hunter]

After reading the Deadline article, it looks like most places didn't decrease overall for the weekend, but in the end rather small gains or holding steady.

Deadline is report in gains but BoxOfficeMojo doesn't line up with what they're reporting.

 

[Liam_H]

BOM can be pretty delayed in reporting international figures and they aren't always up to date.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Deadline is report in gains but BoxOfficeMojo doesn't line up with what they're reporting.

Could you point me in the direction of the article on Mojo? Or is it simply the numbers compiled on TASM2 page that don't match up?

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think WOM and reviews are going to be key here. Godzilla could get a real boost if it is considered great. It definitely has the look and I think the marketing has been strong. It just needs the stamp of approval imo.

Agreed, but I have a feeling Godzilla is going to score well. American's have wanted a good representation of Godzilla for a long time, and I think it will accomplish that goal. I mean, the release of the new one got me to go Godzilla DVD/Blu Ray crazy. I know I won't be the only one. Godzilla is getting a lot of free marketing with the mass release of the DVDs. I think that the movie has been very well marketed. But I agree, WOM for it will be key on how much it effects Spidey.

But, I am also a big Godzilla fan. I mean, I just watched the first 6 Godzilla films in the last 2 days, LOL!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Agreed, but I have a feeling Godzilla is going to score well. American's have wanted a good representation of Godzilla for a long time, and I think it will accomplish that goal. I mean, the release of the new one got me to go Godzilla DVD/Blu Ray crazy. I know I won't be the only one. Godzilla is getting a lot of free marketing with the mass release of the DVDs. I think that the movie has been very well marketed. But I agree, WOM for it will be key on how much it effects Spidey.

But, I am also a big Godzilla fan. I mean, I just watched the first 6 Godzilla films in the last 2 days, LOL!

Yeah, your Godzilla love might have a little to do with it.

I don't know if a good representation of Godzilla is what Americans have been clamoring over, but I think we will eat it up if we get it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think Neighbors will be competition to Spidey. Nobody on here is really paying attention to it but it has good early reviews and plenty of buzz. I'm sure it won't effect Spidey internationally but here in the states I think it could.

 

[hippie_hunter]

BOM can be pretty delayed in reporting international figures and they aren't always up to date.

Deadline's numbers with the first film don't match up. I'm pretty sure that BOM is not 2 years delayed

Could you point me in the direction of the article on Mojo? Or is it simply the numbers compiled on TASM2 page that don't match up?

They don't match up at all. For example Deadline is reporting that in Russia Amazing Spider-Man 2's $8.9 million opening is up 3% over the first film's opening. However, BoxOfficeMojo's numbers of the first film says that the opening weekend for Russia on the first film is $9.5 million. And in Argentina, Deadline says that the second film's $1.3 million is up 5%, but BoxOfficeMojo reports that the first film opened to $2.2 million. Or how they're saying that Japan is a major Spidey market when it opened up to #3 behind a film that has been out for weeks and a local film. And is also down quite significantly from the first film's $7.4 million opening in Japan.

Last time I checked those are decreases not increases. Also, I don't get how Deadline is reporting that Sony is quite positive with these numbers when you're seeing some rather big decreases in the major markets in comparison to the first film. When Amazing Spider-Man 2 needs to surpass the first film by a rather healthy margin and Sony is aiming for a $1 billion total gross, there's nothing to be happy about that.

Deadline's numbers on Italy, Turkey, and Venezuela add up though.

EDIT: Looks like it's a different writer writing this week's international numbers on Deadline instead of Anita Bush. The stuff Bush reported last week totally made sense while Nancy Tartaglione is making me scratch my head over her reporting.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Yeah, your Godzilla love might have a little to do with it.

I don't know if a good representation of Godzilla is what Americans have been clamoring over, but I think we will eat it up if we get it.

I know people like me have been waiting Especially since the last effort at Godzilla here was ummmm....yeah. That happened.

The monster movie, unlike the superhero medium, is not one I feel we in America have been too successful with. Outside of King Kong, we haven't produced many notable ones. I'll be interested to see if Godzilla finds that audience outside of its niche fanbase with this new one since it seems to have more buzz than most recent American monster flicks. But, much like Godzilla likely will hurt Spidey, X-Men will likely hurt Godzilla.