The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Visualiza]

The only reason Spidey 3 didn't hit 400mil is because it was garbage, plan and simple. That decline was solely due to quality.

Spider-Man started out so huge that there was always going to be a slight decline but the continuing decline is because the 3rd film was lousy.

Agreed, but then that makes me wonder how this film will eventually pan out as well. It seems like the burgeoning Int'l markets will give it legs, if nothing else.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Release date didn't help.
imo

Regarding Spider-Man 2, I will agree but eventhough the competition was insane I think Spidey 3 had a great release date and if Spidey 3 had the previous two film's reception I think it would have killed at the box office.

Agreed, but then that makes me wonder how this film will eventually pan out as well. It seems like the burgeoning Int'l markets will give it legs, if nothing else.

It's going to be interesting to see the run it has worldwide. I think it's going to need about 575mil to reach 800mil worldwide unless it manages a good run here in the states. Something I don't see happening but stranger things have happened. I wonder how Sony will take it if it does under 800mil?

 

[Green Goblin]

Cause Spider-Man just became one of those movies that just hit at the right time that everyone went to see, lots of repeat viewings. SM2 did decline but not by much and SM3 just fell off a cliff because it was crappy.

I suppose after 9/11 Americans needed a cheering up.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Just like Heath Ledger's death gave TDK more attention I suppose.

 

[Iceman]

Why has the US become less interested since the the very first film?

The 1st film was a specific film event being the 1st ever full on film for one of the true big 3 characters of comics. $115m opening weekend back in 2002! 2 was always going to struggle to do as much despite its quality while 3 had a mixed reception despite opening massively. Since then it's been rebooted which normally attracts a smaller audience 1st time around and now we are up to a 5th film in a short space of time for a solo character (not a world based film like Star Wars or LOTR or a rotating roster team-based property like X-Men or Avengers), some level of fatigue is natural for US audiences.

The US market has shown itself to be much more prone to fatigue after multiple sequels while the overseas gross often starts getting big from a 1st sequel and keeps getting bigger for franchise properties no matter how bad the films get (see POTC grosses for eg). The overseas market is also growing massively for all films good and bad as territories see economic growth and develop their lagging theater infrastructure year by year (unlike the mature US environment where total box office potential is much closer to optimal capacity and doesn't change a great deal year to year). Comic films also used to be much more of a US thing that hadn't yet grabbed international interest to the same degree (can check the proportions of US Vs international grosses for earlier comic films).

 

[Tobias]

I suppose after 9/11 Americans needed a cheering up.

Its these unknown factors that give huge boosts. Ledger's untimely death probably had an impact on TDK.

There is so much product out there now that a comic book film has to be really special and have a secondary circumstance to reach say billion dollar levels. Studios will have to realize this and rein in their budgets.

 

[Visualiza]

Regarding Spider-Man 2, I will agree but eventhough the competition was insane I think Spidey 3 had a great release date and if Spidey 3 had the previous two film's reception I think it would have killed at the box office.

It's going to be interesting to see the run it has worldwide. I think it's going to need about 575mil to reach 800mil worldwide unless it manages a good run here in the states. Something I don't see happening but stranger things have happened. I wonder how Sony will take it if it does under 800mil?

May have been the first genre flick to break into the billion dollar club. Guess we'll never know, and if this franchise continues it's current trajectory, I doubt it will either, but I could be wrong.

 

[Tony Stark]

Yes each film declined domestically, but that's somewhat misleading.

First off SM1 was one of those once in a lifetime releases. We've only seen that kind of audience response from TDK, and Avenges. We've never seen that kind of response in the genre from the first film in a series (I'm counting Avengers as a sequel, because it sort of is). It broke the domestic weekend record, which it held for 4 years until POTC2 came out. Secondly there was a huge draw to the film with the aftermath of 9/11, and the positive message of the film. Thirdly let's be honest here Attack of the Clones was a MAJOR disappointment, and whatever competition it may have presented pretty much fell by the wayside.

SM2 was released on a Tuesday to capitalize on early viewers before the 4th of July weekend. It ws 374, compared to 403 for SM1, so it wasn't a huge falloff, and certainly wasn't due to the quality of the film as SM2 is generally considered the best Spider-man film to date.

SM3 regained the opening weekend record over POTC2. The response was hug despite negative reviews. However once people saw the film, that's when the fallout happened. SM3 had terrible legs and only amassed $336, which was barely more than Iron Man made the following year on a much smaller open.

TASM was definitely down, but I think this was expected. Even Batman Begins didn't have great box office, but it did have strong legs at the BO. It also was effected by the Aurora shooting as it had a near 70% drop the weekend of the shootings.

This takes us back to TASM2. So with all of those things, the expectation would be for it to finish above it's predecessor, but it's going to fall far short of it. Had it not been for the Aurora shootings TASM could have been over 300M, so that makes $220M for TASM2 even more depressing.

 

[Lord]

I don't think the reception hurt Spider-Man 3 all that much, but i'm sure that with inflation and 3D + IMAX boost, those 3 films would have broken a million, the first would probably have made Avengers numbers in fact.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

So now, 800 M is suddenly a possibility when being called off for being delusional just a day ago when I mentioned it was a reasonable goal? LOL

Anyway, happy that overseas numbers are looking good, fingers crossed.

 

[Picard Sisko]

It's already behind TWS which is a bad thing IMO. I don't know if word of mouth is going to affect the film's B.O. performance or not. Half the people I know came out telling me it was the greatest thing ever, then the other half of people are either saying that it's worse than SM3 or just bad.

 

[SpeterMan3]

Can someone fill me in on what numbers we have so far?

 

[hippie_hunter]

Overall looking good. With Asian markets TASM2 might exceed 800 million. A big success and blowing past TASM 1.

I'll be surprised if it exceeds $800 million or passes the first Amazing Spider-Man. While the Asia numbers are fantastic, it's declined or stayed on par elsewhere in Western markets as well. And Japan was just an absolute disaster. I think France is the only major Western market where there has been any real improvement. I think at best, the success in Asia will allow the second one to be on par with the first one which really isn't all that good considering the increased production and advertising budgets along with the stakes the film had in creating a Spidey movieverse.

Showing continuing decline in the domestic market along with at best being on par with the first film is quite a disappointment for Sony which was aiming for $1 billion. Sorta like how Warner Bros. was aiming for $1 billion with Man of Steel, but at least that film was profitable before it was even released in theaters.

Add in the fact of declining domestic returns make it rather worrysome for Spidey spin-offs. If there is a declining interest for Spider-Man in some rather important markets, how is that going to bode for Sinister Six or Venom where Spider-Man is going to be pushed to the side if he even shows up at all.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

WB was delusional to aim for 1 billion with MOS considering how relatively poorly Returns had done in its time.

For the 800 Million, I'm thinking that the increases for the asian markets & overall increases this weekend will be more significant than the decreases.

 

[Tobias]

I'll be surprised if it exceeds $800 million or passes the first Amazing Spider-Man. While the Asia numbers are fantastic, it's declined or stayed on par elsewhere in Western markets as well. And Japan was just an absolute disaster. I think France is the only major Western market where there has been any real improvement. I think at best, the success in Asia will allow the second one to be on par with the first one which really isn't all that good considering the increased production and advertising budgets along with the stakes the film had in creating a Spidey movieverse.

Showing continuing decline in the domestic market along with at best being on par with the first film is quite a disappointment for Sony which was aiming for $1 billion. Sorta like how Warner Bros. was aiming for $1 billion with Man of Steel, but at least that film was profitable before it was even released in theaters.

Add in the fact of declining domestic returns make it rather worrysome for Spidey spin-offs. If there is a declining interest for Spider-Man in some rather important markets, how is that going to bode for Sinister Six or Venom where Spider-Man is going to be pushed to the side if he even shows up at all.

Do we know SONY really expected a billion? With MOS Forbes and other have said actually WB expected 750 - 800 million. It under performed even at that and so WB canned sequelw and went with Batman. But Spidey is a whole different ballgame.

Hiughes at Forbes says some of the budget claims and all for Spidey are exaggerated.

 

[hippie_hunter]

WB was delusional to aim for 1 billion with MOS considering how relatively poorly Returns had done in its time.

Agreed.

For the 800 Million, I'm thinking that the increases for the asian markets & overall increases this weekend will be more significant than the decreases.

I don't. While you can't just completely ignore how great the Asian numbers are, particularly in South Korea, India, and China, overall, most Asian markets are tiny. I think that the Asian numbers could boost the international numbers enough to where it's on par with the first film to make up for the decreases in markets like the United States/Canada, United Kingdom, Australia, Russia, and Japan.

I think that next week the performances of the film in the United States and China will determine how it will end up being. China has a domestic film industry that the government loves to prop up and reactions in the United States on top of tough competition could lead to pretty big drops in those markets. Or there could be a pretty big increase in China with the way the consumers act there.

 

[Mr. Dent]

So now, 800 M is suddenly a possibility when being called off for being delusional just a day ago when I mentioned it was a reasonable goal? LOL

Anyway, happy that overseas numbers are looking good, fingers crossed.

It's only a "possibility" in that it has about a 10% chance of happening. It's still pretty much not going to happen and imo it's looking like the likely landing spot for this is $720m, $735m at best. So hold off on your high horse, it's still delusional to think this will make $800m. It would have to gross at least over $570m overseas which isn't happening.

 

[Micromind]

WB was delusional to aim for 1 billion with MOS considering how relatively poorly Returns had done in its time.

For the 800 Million, I'm thinking that the increases for the asian markets & overall increases this weekend will be more significant than the decreases.

Well, I think you mean Jeff Robinov ..who made that 1 bil. statement, knowing fully well that he was going to resign one month after that.

No one else at WB expected MOS to earn 1 bil. Though, I still believe that MOS could have earned more but it did not as the movie was very poorly marketed in Asia.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Don't forget about Brazil, it's a pretty significant market, TASM2's OW there is 76 % ahead of TASM. It needs legs sure, but TASM did 30 million dollars over there, it can add up quickly.

Like you say, it's all about the legs.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well, I think you mean Jeff Robinov ..who made that 1 bil. statement, knowing fully well that he was going to resign one month after that.

No one else at WB expected MOS to earn 1 bil. Though, I still believe that MOS could have earned more but it did not as the movie was very poorly marketed in Asia.

Well unfortunately his statement is out there and WB can't take it back. If anybody expected a billion dollars they deserve to be disappointed. Even with non mixed word of mouth I don't think the film had a chance at that kind of number.

 

[Marvin]

Do we know SONY really expected a billion? With MOS Forbes and other have said actually WB expected 750 - 800 million. It under performed even at that and so WB canned sequelw and went with Batman. But Spidey is a whole different ballgame.

Hiughes at Forbes says some of the budget claims and all for Spidey are exaggerated.

Why is it you think WB expected a superman reboot to hit a billion when the last superman reboot didn't even come close to a billion? Because superman is just that big? Did WB expect the batman reboot to hit a billion?

I can see why WB would expect the next batman film(solo or otherwise) to hit a billion given what the last one did but why superman? I can see why people would expect spiderman to hit a billion give the last two but why MOS?
I can see why people would expect the Transformers reboot(thingy) to hit a billion given what those films do time and again...
I can see why people would expect the next star wars...

And still with your canned sequel rhetoric...
It never ends.

If MOS made a billion they would still be making BvS. Constantly saying it is about as opportunistic as it gets. Like saying the only reason loki is in all three thor films and them some is because marvel has no faith in it's other villains. There is no solid truth in that but I get away with saying it cause it's what they did. The studios want in on this novelty thing, clearly(see spidey). More to the point, it allows them to get back into the batman business without worry of 'reboot'-itus. I digress.
Devin Faraci recently said, no matter what the quality of the next star wars film, 'everyone will have to see it'. That's the move WB just pulled. Period.

MoS underperformed but alot of this talk is getting hyperbolic given the circumstance. A well reviewed superman film only made so much...

 

[Micromind]

Do we know SONY really expected a billion? With MOS Forbes and other have said actually WB expected 750 - 800 million. It under performed even at that and so WB canned sequelw and went with Batman. But Spidey is a whole different ballgame.

Hiughes at Forbes says some of the budget claims and all for Spidey are exaggerated.

I think that WB changed their plans when they found out that Ben Affleck was not interested in solo Batman movies, which is why Batman is being introduced in MOS sequel.

It's not because MOS failed to make 750 mil. MOS already made 120 mil. in different product placement promotions and another 687 mil at worldwide box office, then there is money from merchandise sales and DVD, Blu Ray sales (which have sold more the Iron Man 3) and money from network broadcast rights.

Is all that not enough

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Well, if Ben signed on for BVS, he obviously signed for Justice League & probably a god knows how many pictures deal, so he's probably going to do solo Batman movies (unless you meant him directing)

 

[Micromind]

Don't forget about Brazil, it's a pretty significant market, TASM2's OW there is 76 % ahead of TASM. It needs legs sure, but TASM did 30 million dollars over there, it can add up quickly.

Like you say, it's all about the legs.

TASM 2 will be earning more than the first movie overseas.

 

[Tobias]

How are Spidey's holds in Europe? its 3 weeks now.