The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Eddie]

Oh, China's definitely big. I'm just saying that if it takes China to do as well as the previous film (or even a bit better) that won't really translate to doing better than the previous film. Sony needs this film to do better than TASM in countries other than China if they expect to make a real profit.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Man, what is sony going to do? There is no way this film will be profitable enough for them.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Man, what is sony going to do? There is no way this film will be profitable enough for them.

They will squeeze some money out the back end, even if it doesn't do massive numbers. But this is not good. Not in the least.

 

[Picard Sisko]

It can probably last until TASM3 or S6, but I can't see the series going on for more than 4-5 years unless the next film really blows people away. And I cannot see the studio rebooting again.

 

[Eddie]

Man, what is sony going to do? There is no way this film will be profitable enough for them.

"Restructure", or, y'know, fire some people. I could see their short term plans for the franchise changing. I don't think we'll see them sell the rights or anything that drastic, but I do think we'll hear rumors (maybe even confirmation) that some investor wants them to unload Spidey. I don't think they'll listen to that... yet. I also think we'll hear rumors of a crossover (AKA the "Suck it, Avi" plan) to revitalize the brand, but I don't think Marvel will OK it.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Sony has been making the same exact mistakes since Spider-Man 3, so I don't know if they are really going to change and fire people. Production for TASM3 is expected to begin in October and, quite honestly, that's too soon. But here's another issue... sony CANNOT afford to wait any longer to get the movie out there. It's like a lose/lose situation that they are in.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

How fast do they have to churn these out before losing the rights already?

Andy said there was not really a script when they started shooting TASM, on TASM2, it was ready well in advance, as long as they don't rush it out too much, it should be fine, but of course, that depends on what you think of the movies.

For me, they've done a great job so far but I wonder what it would be like if Marvel Studios had Spider-Man while keeping the same creative team. Could it be even better?

 

[Picard Sisko]

I think the studio demands from Marvel would be a lot better than what's coming from sony. Since the MCU is already established, the need to do "world building" wouldn't be as drastic for example.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Do you guys think Andrew Garfield will stick around after the contractually obliged The Amazing Spider-Man 3?

This version of the franchise has simply not been warmly received on the whole, but can they really risk another reboot in the space of 5 years?

 

[Tim_Riggins]

You can't blame Sony though for trying to set up the own world though, it's like WB with Bats VS Supes & Justice League, they're all trying to get their piece of the cake, I'm curious to see The Sinister Six (if it still happens, although it's been greenlit already) & Venom, although I'd be just as content with TASM3 & 4.

Having crossovers would be more interesting I think although I wouldn't like Spidey sharing the spotlight too much with other superheroes, and him becoming second fiddle sort of.

@Pfeiffer: Andy said in an interview he's really excited about the plans to come, so it wouldn't be surprised if a nice check from Sony came in to keep him on, he's the best thing with Emma in those movies (and I love those movies).

 

[Eddie]

How fast do they have to churn these out before losing the rights already?

Andy said there was not really a script when they started shooting TASM, on TASM2, it was ready well in advance, as long as they don't rush it out too much, it should be fine, but of course, that depends on what you think of the movies.

For me, they've done a great job so far but I wonder what it would be like if Marvel Studios had Spider-Man while keeping the same creative team. Could it be even better?

I don't think Marvel would keep the same writers, but I think they could make something special with the same director and cast. Haven't seen 2 yet, but I actually enjoyed the first a great deal. It sounds like the main problem with 2 is the world building, and that reeks of studio interference. MS is pretty much the king of the interconnected movie franchise, and if this was with Marvel there wouldn't be that Sinister Six film in the first place. So yeah, I think Marvel Studios and a good chunk of the creative team would have been really good.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Do you guys think Andrew Garfield will stick around after the contractually obliged The Amazing Spider-Man 3?

This version of the franchise has simply not been warmly received on the whole, but can they really risk another reboot in the space of 5 years?

I have a feeling that Andrew is going to want to step away from Spider-Man after the third, unless there are some massive changes to the movie. Sony cannot risk another reboot to be honest, and I don't think they would be able to wait five years to make another Spider-Man film. All of their eggs are in the one and only Spider-Man basket, which is why they need to make one movie per year.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Sony isn't going to lose money on TASM2. But you don't spend $450 million to make a moderate profit either. These tentpoles are what studios use to fund their other projects as well, so an underperforming one hurts.

Sinister Six and Venom? Yeah, I could easily see them losing money.

 

[Picard Sisko]

They won't "lose" money on TASM2 (as in it won't be a box office flop), but it's not going to be terribly profitable either. Since the budget is $450 million, the movie will probably just be a moderate success.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

I don't think Marvel would keep the same writers, but I think they could make something special with the same director and cast. Haven't seen 2 yet, but I actually enjoyed the first a great deal. It sounds like the main problem with 2 is the world building, and that reeks of studio interference. MS is pretty much the king of the interconnected movie franchise, and if this was with Marvel there wouldn't be that Sinister Six film in the first place. So yeah, I think Marvel Studios and a good chunk of the creative team would have been really good.

If you really enjoy TASM (which I think is really good), you should love this one. The world building has been way overblown, the real world building part in the movie is literally 1 m 30 at the end of the movie, that's it. The rest pertains to Peter's story but also advances it towards the future.

I love those movies so I don't care whether Sony decides to make changes as long as they keep Marc on board (and I don't think they have any reason not to, they're obviously happy with him to refuse sharing him with Fox (ie Marc's contract), and there was that rumor that executives were very proud of the movie (regardless of critical reception, I'd be proud too).

Sony are too proud to just give up because TASM2 is not gonna do the precious billion dollars they were hoping for, they're still find some way to make money off of it, and then will just rethink what to do different next time.

@Picard: They could fake it but I'm pretty sure that Andy, Emma & the rest are really proud of the movie. Andy loves the character like crazy, I bet he's not gonna step away after TASM3, if he considers it, Sony would flash the checkbook. Also, the "budget", let's say total budget here, a lot of blockbusters would have similar numbers if their marketing budget was actually taken into account, let's just be fair here.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

$800 million dollars would be a bit of a flop for Sony, considering what they pumped into this film.

This movie was strung together by the higher-ups to reach Batman/Avengers level type of money. Theres no way they won't be disappointed with $800.

 

[kedrell]

So what level of $ on it's OW does this film need to sink to in order for it to be a disaster? $70M? And entire DOM run that fails to crack $200M? I'll be rooting for those.

 

[Eddie]

I'm cautiously optimistic about TASM2 (as I've been for some time) and I'm particularly looking forward to Garfield's performance as Spider-Man. I can definitely see how the Sinister Six setup could be underwhelming, though, and I think the box office performance (and critical reception) will definitely make Sony rethink plans for that film.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Well the budget (including marketing) is about $450 million. If the movie doesn't make AT LEAST around $800 million then it's a huge disappointment.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

So what level of $ on it's OW does this film need to sink to in order for it to be a disaster? $70M? And entire DOM run that fails to crack $200M? I'll be rooting for those.

$85-$95 million dollars (Current projection) would be a weak opening.

Anything below $85 million is a disaster (and unlikely).

 

[ares834]

You can't blame Sony though for trying to set up the own world though, it's like WB with Bats VS Supes & Justice League, they're all trying to get their piece of the cake, I'm curious to see The Sinister Six (if it still happens, although it's been greenlit already) & Venom, although I'd be just as content with TASM3 & 4.

Sure you can. They tried and appeard to fail. I'll blame WB as well if BvS or JL end up being awful.

It also doesn't help that Spider-Man is all Sony has. WB at least has the entire DC Universe.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

So what level of $ on it's OW does this film need to sink to in order for it to be a disaster? $70M? And entire DOM run that fails to crack $200M? I'll be rooting for those.

A disaster would be like I don't know, 500-600 M territory, which is not happening obviously. And why are you rooting for those, again with the childish aspirations? "Man I hope this fails", why?

@pfeiffer: except a 90 something opening is not considered weak for this, maybe for a few people, but it'd be a solid OW, this is not a Batman movie or Iron Man, it's never tracked beyond 100 M, TASM opened on a Tuesday, so it's hard to have a fair comparison either.

@ares: at least, let's wait to see what it's like before saying they failed, you have nothing to claim that.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There is a mountain of difference between Spider-Man and having the entire DC roster of characters.

 

[kedrell]

Sony's pure desperation and dependence on the Spider-man franchise is then clearly easy to see. If this movie tanks, is that curtains for their troubled studio? I certainly hope so. This film deserves to bomb, big time.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

A disaster would be like I don't know, 500-600 M territory, which is not happening obviously. And why are you rooting for those, again with the childish aspirations? "Man I hope this fails", why?

The same or lower then TASM is a disaster. Why do you keep on avoiding this?