The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Picard Sisko]

They could do what they did with Spider-Man 2 and have a comic book artist make original work for the opening credits.

 

[TalismanRing]

ASM2 #s have been all over but can most recently be found in the most recent Deadline w/e box office #s. Deadline has a rather close relationship with Sony as one can tell from their frequent sources, quotes from Sony insiders and often the spin.

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-opening-big-debut/

$255m production budget
$185-190m marketing costs

ASM2,which bowed in a window of opportunity overseas a couple of weeks ago to a strong showing, has two weekends domestically to make its lion’s share before Warner Bros./Legendary Pics’ Godzilla stomps into theaters. The performance of Amazing Spider-Man 2 is a big deal for the studio. The production budget is said to be around $255M, with about $185M-$190M spent on marketing. That means all in it needs to make more than $752.2M worldwide (which is what the first installment grossed). About 65% of the first installment’s gross came from international markets.

 

[Visualiza]

The biggest reason to reboot was to do a prper Gwen Stacy story arc.

Now that it's done there's no need to reboot again.

I think that this "Gwen Stacy arc" was anything but proper. I'm not one of those that believes that the movies should be beholden to the comics, but the way the story played out in the original run was far superior.

I preferred many of the creative decisions, particularly her hating Spider-Man and being oblivious to Peter's secret life; it created a degree of tension that we never got with these two, they were just lovey dovey every time the cameras rolled. It was actually quite boring in retrospect. There were a lot of unexplored relationships and experiences during their time at college that may have been interesting on film. Speaking of which, Flash Thompson (let alone MJ) was nowhere to be found. Can't say I miss the actor, as he couldn't act his way out of a paper bag, but my point is that there were a lot of missed opportunities in the Gwen arc that were completely left on the table.

Sorry to get off on a tangent, by ultimately what I'm trying to say is that *if* the prospect of a reboot ever came up again, there are many different directions that could be taken with the Gwen story. Let's get serious here folks, Marc Webb & Co. didn't do everything there was to do with this chapter in Peter's life. A back and forth on-again, off-again tug of war is hardly what I'd call a definitive story arc considering how much richer the history is.

Either way...if Sony continues on their current trajectory, I wouldn't be surprised if MS was somewhat apprehensive about bringing Spider-Man into the MCU (if it ever came tot hat, of course). Seems like Sony is doing what they can to ruin the character's reputation, almost like an "If we can't have him, nobody can" sort of thing. Who knows though...regardless of how I feel I refuse to take anything for granted. For all we know, Marvel could screw the character up far worse than Sony ever did. Still, the worst crimes against the character, even after this fiasco of a sequel, remain on the illustrated page.

 

[Picard Sisko]

If Batman can get past "Batman & Robin," then Spider-Man will be okay.

 

[JKKS085]

Firstly, where are you people coming up with these production/marketing numbers? Honest question, cause I quite frankly haven't been able to find them

..."alot less domestically"? What constitutes 'alot less'? 30mill? 40...and is that what you are suggesting. Un

Secondly, Cap2's financial improvement over the previous film is commendable but that's like commending TDK's financial improvement over Begins(alot more substantial and with little inflation), without full appreciation for just how little Begins made.
Marvel's phase one films making as modest returns as they have always seems to be spun in a brilliant way I must say. Of course TWS made(a great deal) more than TFA. How could it not. There's a reason Ironman 2 didn't double Ironman1's haul in such a way, and the quality of the sequel is only partly to blame.
Just how close to 800 mill with Cap3 need to get for it to be received as a financial wonderment of a trilogy. Not doubt somewhere close to ASM's haul Ironically enough. The last Marvel Stuios hulk movie make like 250 WW, I'm guessing of they made a squeal that landed in the 500mill WW range..

TF1 made gangbusters, TF2 made a little bit more gang busters and TF made a little bit more. That's the blight of a consistently successful franchise. Last I heard Spidey 2 made less than Spidey 1
This sort of rhetoric keeps up and James cameron is screwed going forward.

Lastly, I find it odd how people support/dismiss OS money depending on the circumstance.

What I personnaly find odd is the spin people are trying to put on prospects that are simply and unequivocally dissapointing.

If you're spending 175 millions more than the competition to make as much money as they do on a similar market that's a bad prospect no matter the business you're in. If you spend 445 millions on a product that would give you a similar return than a 335 millions product released two years ago that's a bad prospect too. If you're expecting 1 billion in revenues out of your 445 millions investement, 750 millions is a bad prospect.

Sony keeps on making movies that are more and more expensive to produce and promote but that end up being less and less profitable for them. Even if you don't account for competition, there's no spinning that ! They turned a potential billion dollar making franchise (adjusted for inflation all 3 Raimi films would've crossed that mark) featuring one of the most iconic comic-book character of all time and a potent pop-culture figure into a series of film unable to gross as much as a second-tier Marvel character. And this absolutely normal you say ? It is as insane and worrying as let's say, a newcomer entering the video game business 3/4 years from now and selling the same amount of units of their new game console than Sony of their PS5. This is something that isn't supposed to happen unless you have a handfull of terrible decisions leading to that outcome.

As for the pb and marketing cost numbers, they come from Deadline, Forbes, the LA Times, Daily Beast, The Wrap ... Pretty much everyone is reporting similar numbers. Then again picture it as Sony putting an extra 175 millions to develop and promote their PS5 and finally selling the same amount of units than the cheaper newcoming competitor and put a spin on that number.

Now when it comes to overseas gross the thing is quite simple. Studios make far less money outside of North America than they make from domestic gross. Hence the fact that great os numbers don't always make up for a poor domestic run (think Pacific Rim).

 

[Tobias]

ASM2 #s have been all over but can most recently be found in the most recent Deadline w/e box office #s. Deadline has a rather close relationship with Sony as one can tell from their frequent sources, quotes from Sony insiders and often the spin.

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-opening-big-debut/

$255m production budget
$185-190m marketing costs

Taking the lower marketing figure, TASM2 would need to make 880 million to break even. More than a hundred million more than TASM made. Using the 50% rule.

One lesson, its not so easy to do a billion WW even for popular characters. Maybe studios will come to their senses and rein in these budgets. Like Marvel does. Its budgets are much smaller for their films. Marvel has been called a "cheap" studio but there is something to be said for being cheap when making this sort of film.

 

[DorneyDave]

I don't get into Box Office numbers of movies really, so as long as this makes enough so they get to make more, I'm happy.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

'Lots' of people disagree with you as well. Lot's of people agree and disagree about a lot of things..Wanting sony to not expand into spinoff territory, is just another agenda in a long list of internet agendas as far as I'm concerned.

You came in with some prediction and then went on to assert what sony should do based on your 'math'. I'm just saying it would read 'differently' if you attempted to frame it as an uncertain possibility. Instead: "Yup sony should abandon all the plans I don't like them making, because this is how much ASM will make." Sounds more like wishful thinking imo.

That this film will gross less then the last is an interesting prospect I must say. I can see how what's happening can be spun as a critical disappointment but the same thing being said of the finances remains to be seen imo.

Lastly, I don't blindly defend anything. Nor do I blindly hate anything. I try to take what things are for just that. As for my optimism about all things. Not so hard. Started when I became a fan of all these things and wanted to see them all do well. At the very least it actually keeps me impartial when it comes to the spectrum that places hate on the left and blind faith on the right. Safe to say you won't find me out right hating or wanting any of these things to fail.

My projections are just projections but Sony themselves said they expected one billion worldwide. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize they will fall far short of that expectation.

It also doesn't take a rocket science to see that interest in the Spider-man franchise is steadily declining. Usually you do spin offs when demand is much bigger than what the studio can supply. The demand for ASM-related movies isn't bigger than what the studio can supply. They need to increase demand by improving the quality of their films instead of planning multiple spin offs the general audience isn't asking for.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

They'll continue making more, not gonna stop them.

 

[Picard Sisko]

They will make more movies out of necessity for sure. At least until the movies aren't profitable enough for the studio.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Yeah. They can also explain away Spider-Man not being known about in the MCU up to that point as him still being an urban myth like Batman and Peter hadn't started taking pictures of him yet. All his superpowered villains hadn't shown up yet and he'd just been taking out random petty thieves for the past couple months, like how he started out in TSSM, while the big time superheroes of the Avengers have been doing their thing and getting all the attention. They can make Spidey's films the tale of a random kid born in this "Age of Miracles" making his rise through the ranks of superherodom. Could be epic if done right.

Seriously, TSSM laid the road map on how to do the perfect Spidey reboot without having to tread over his origin. I have no idea how Sony flubbed it.

Or if it comes a few years down the line, maybe Peter didn't have his Spider powers during say, The Avengers. It would be years before he could be introduced, so he could be about 6 months in when he's drafted into the MCU. Have references in other films while Spidey's film is being developed.

 

[TalismanRing]

If Batman can get past "Batman & Robin," then Spider-Man will be okay.

True. This isn't a Ghost-Rider situation where Sony could screw the character up so much they'd just let the license lapse and Marvel would take it back but still not be bothered to use the character. He's still immensely popular and valuable - even outside movies.

 

[Picard Sisko]

True. This isn't a Ghost-Rider situation where Sony could screw the character up so much they'd just let the license lapse and Marvel would take it back but still not be bothered to use the character. He's still immensely popular and valuable - even outside movies.

Maybe at most they would let some time pass between this series and the next reboot, y'know?

 

[Visualiza]

Because I don't like to see bad films rewarded. We already have the Transformers franchise for that.

My sentiments exactly. For as much as I love the character, I can't tolerate seeing him disrespected.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

I don't get into Box Office numbers of movies really, so as long as this makes enough so they get to make more, I'm happy.

You should hope for more than that lol

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Ghost Rider, lol. And Spider-Man disrespected? Really? You have to go that far?

 

[Marvin]

ASM2 #s have been all over but can most recently be found in the most recent Deadline w/e box office #s. Deadline has a rather close relationship with Sony as one can tell from their frequent sources, quotes from Sony insiders and often the spin.

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-opening-big-debut/

$255m production budget
$185-190m marketing costs

So no official studio numbers. None worthy of landing on sites such as boMojo as they often do.

$255 pb being maybe the highest ever for one of these things(with the exception of Returns)? I think I"ll wait till the official figure is released, seems like a more reasonable way to go about things.

All of that being said:
@Jkkson85 how exactly do you end up with the 175mill more cost than the competition exactly?

If people were actually serious and consistent about their feelings towards overseas numbers. MOS would probably be considered universally biggest than ASM, and cap2 hitting 700mill WW wouldn't be as substantial as it is...

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Seems like Deadline has taken off its rose colored glasses

The domestic audience has been softening and there’s no time to reboot again … so, gotta ask seriously now, how much money can Sony squeeze out of a single feature franchise?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think that this "Gwen Stacy arc" was anything but proper. I'm not one of those that believes that the movies should be beholden to the comics, but the way the story played out in the original run was far superior.

I preferred many of the creative decisions, particularly her hating Spider-Man and being oblivious to Peter's secret life; it created a degree of tension that we never got with these two, they were just lovey dovey every time the cameras rolled. It was actually quite boring in retrospect. There were a lot of unexplored relationships and experiences during their time at college that may have been interesting on film. Speaking of which, Flash Thompson (let alone MJ) was nowhere to be found. Can't say I miss the actor, as he couldn't act his way out of a paper bag, but my point is that there were a lot of missed opportunities in the Gwen arc that were completely left on the table.

Sorry to get off on a tangent, by ultimately what I'm trying to say is that *if* the prospect of a reboot ever came up again, there are many different directions that could be taken with the Gwen story. Let's get serious here folks, Marc Webb & Co. didn't do everything there was to do with this chapter in Peter's life. A back and forth on-again, off-again tug of war is hardly what I'd call a definitive story arc considering how much richer the history is.

Either way...if Sony continues on their current trajectory, I wouldn't be surprised if MS was somewhat apprehensive about bringing Spider-Man into the MCU (if it ever came tot hat, of course). Seems like Sony is doing what they can to ruin the character's reputation, almost like an "If we can't have him, nobody can" sort of thing. Who knows though...regardless of how I feel I refuse to take anything for granted. For all we know, Marvel could screw the character up far worse than Sony ever did. Still, the worst crimes against the character, even after this fiasco of a sequel, remain on the illustrated page.

Sony has been sloppy at adapting the villains and their story was badly structured but they are far from ruining Spider-man's reputation.

People are simply luke warm on the ASM-series causing the franchise to decrease domestically but Spider-man movies ALWAYS decrease domestically. Sony just needs to find away to get them to increase. A mediocre output is not the way to do it.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

To that question, the answer is "give it back to Marvel Studios, they will make it as successful as it was before" @Messiah: I doubt it's as simple as this, it's not just the Spidey franchise, plenty of sequels decrease domestically, let's not even talk about the Star Wars saga if you take inflation into account. Just have to count on overseas now.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Sony CANNOT reboot again and they are unable to really let time pass between movies. They can only go on with this franchise for so long before it goes splat.

I'm not one of those "GIVE THE RIGHTS BACK TO MARVEL" fanboys (you guys know how supportive I've been of this series), but I think it's inevitable. Spider-Man is either going to end up back at Marvel or Sony is going to be forced to cut some sort of deal with them to stay in business.

 

[TalismanRing]

Maybe at most they would let some time pass between this series and the next reboot, y'know?

The issue is for Sony they have to make a Spider-man movie every 5 years of they lose the license (whereas Fantastic Four is 7 or 8 years) which is why we got the 2012 re-boot.

Sony also needs franchises and tent poles and Spider-man is their biggest asset in that regard. So even if they're not making as much money as they want they're still making money. They can't afford to just let the franchise sit for another 5 years. It's why they're planning on doing spin offs so they can have one a year from the Spider-Man universe.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

They'll continue making more, not gonna stop them.

I know I won't stop them but maybe falling $200 million short of expectations will.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Sony CANNOT reboot again and they are unable to really let time pass between movies. They can only go on with this franchise for so long before it goes splat.

I'm not one of those "GIVE THE RIGHTS BACK TO MARVEL" fanboys (you guys know how supportive I've been of this series), but I think it's inevitable. Spider-Man is either going to end up back at Marvel or Sony is going to be forced to cut some sort of deal with them to stay in business.

Why not, I guess Sony & Arad are too proud to do that though. How great would it be to have a partnership where they say "okay you can use Spidey in The Avengers movie, in exchange, we keep the rights for the solo movies" or even sharing the budget costs along with some of the profits.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Why not, I guess Sony & Arad are too proud to do that though. How great would it be to have a partnership where they say "okay you can use Spidey in The Avengers movie, in exchange, we keep the rights for the solo movies".

I think maybe the reception to TASM2 might make them change their minds. I don't think Sony and Marvel are going to "share" Spider-Man though since there would be too much conflict. Either Spider-Man is staying at sony or he is going right to Marvel/Disney.