The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[spiderman2]

coming up 200 million short of what they expected might at least make then think things over and maybe make some changes like spending less on marketing and bring in new wrighters or something.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Well, if Sony ever sells the rights (which I doubt they ever will), it would be a huge, big number probably, although for Disney, it'll be peanuts.

@spiderman2: they wouldn't be the first studio hoping for huge results with a movie and being disappointed, it seems WB was pretty disappointed with MOS when on paper it seemed like it did very well, turns out the total costs of the movie amount to 619 million dollars, pretty far from the "reported" production budget of 258 million dollars, they only made a profit of 42 million dollars.

Discussing the budget of TASM2 is far from being as simple as it is being made out to be.

 

[Picard Sisko]

Well, if Sony ever sells the rights (which I doubt they ever will), it would be a huge, big number probably, although for Disney, it'll be peanuts.

If they sold the rights then it would be out of necessity.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

At this point I kind of hope they would. It would put Spider-Man to rest for a bit, and considering how he's Marvel's flagship character, you can bet they'd only hire the best of the best to write, direct, and act in it.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

I don't understand why Disney/Marvel would want the rights back Spider-man right now. The character is losing its shine. The reboot hasn't done his popularity any favors. What would Marvel even do with him? Another reboot?

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

I think maybe the reception to TASM2 might make them change their minds. I don't think Sony and Marvel are going to "share" Spider-Man though since there would be too much conflict. Either Spider-Man is staying at sony or he is going right to Marvel/Disney.

I agree with you. If Disney was interested in sharing properties, they wouldn't have acquired Marvel Studios and Lucas Films.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

I don't understand why Disney/Marvel would want the rights back Spider-man right now. The character is losing its shine. The reboot hasn't done his popularity any favors. What would Marvel even do with him? Another reboot?

Why not? While they're busy writing and developing the movie, the current movies could make references to the character, possibly even his origin story. (i.e. Stark could be flipping through channels and passes by a local news station that talks about a Ben Parker being murdered, or have it be a side article in a newspaper or the text that scrolls by on the news.)

Then boom out comes the movie, followed by Spidey's induction into The Avengers. Or they could have Spidey pop into The Avengers and follow that up with his own movie to build hype.

As long as people see he's already established and grow to like him if he shows up in an Avengers sequel first, then I don't see why they wouldn't want to go see his solo film.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

If Spidey passes to Marvel, keep Webb & Andy, they're the best things about the movies (along with Emma, but yeah ^^)

Spidey in The Avengers would be hugeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.

 

[Marvin]

Well, if Sony ever sells the rights (which I doubt they ever will), it would be a huge, big number probably, although for Disney, it'll be peanuts.

@spiderman2: they wouldn't be the first studio hoping for huge results with a movie and being disappointed, it seems WB was pretty disappointed with MOS when on paper it seemed like it did very well, turns out the total costs of the movie amount to 619 million dollars, pretty far from the "reported" production budget of 258 million dollars, they only made a profit of 42 million dollars.

Discussing the budget of TASM2 is far from being as simple as it is being made out to be.

huh

 

[Sevprince]

I don't understand why Disney/Marvel would want the rights back Spider-man right now. The character is losing its shine. The reboot hasn't done his popularity any favors. What would Marvel even do with him? Another reboot?

That is why I think they should buy back the character. Spider Man is Marvel's Superman/Batman. His brand could be hurt by terrible movies. They could let him rest for awhile than introducing him through his own movie or in one of their other movies. I think they'll just wait until Sony gets real desperate to give him up or get him for discount.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

huh

Yeah...I haven't read anything about that.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

huh

He can't help it. He is in straight "protect this house" mode. Making stuff up.

 

[Tobias]

Well, if Sony ever sells the rights (which I doubt they ever will), it would be a huge, big number probably, although for Disney, it'll be peanuts.

@spiderman2: they wouldn't be the first studio hoping for huge results with a movie and being disappointed, it seems WB was pretty disappointed with MOS when on paper it seemed like it did very well, turns out the total costs of the movie amount to 619 million dollars, pretty far from the "reported" production budget of 258 million dollars, they only made a profit of 42 million dollars.

Discussing the budget of TASM2 is far from being as simple as it is being made out to be.

What is your source for the 619 MOS million cost? A recent business analysis of superhero films pegs MOS at 225 production/150 marketing. Matching Variety's report. Yes, you are right MOS about broke even. And Robinov is gone. Who will be gone from SONY?

 

[Tim_Riggins]

@Marvin: Check this out: http://issuu.com/pmcderek/docs/2013_most_valuable_blockbuster_tour/3?e=5873864/7267076

You'll be surprised at the numbers. A lot of those blockbusters have minimum total costs around 330 million for the cheapest. Thor The Dark World? 434 million dollars total. Desolation Of Smaug? 661 million.

ONCE AGAIN, we're talking total costs here. @Darth: don't give me that, just check the link and be surprised. I'm not misreading it, it's a total breakdown, I have no idea what comprises exactly the marketing part but it's in there.

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Marketing could be the domestic & international releasing costs, possibly, they said Iron Man 3 cost around 130 million in P&A, and the addition of domestic & international releasing costs adds up to 131 million & 634 million in total costs.

 

[DorneyDave]

You should hope for more than that lol

No. I loved TASM and TASM2.

Thus, I hope they continue exactly what they are doing.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

@Marvin: Check this out: http://issuu.com/pmcderek/docs/2013_most_valuable_blockbuster_tour/3?e=5873864/7267076

You'll be surprised at the numbers. A lot of those blockbusters have minimum total costs around 330 million for the cheapest. Thor The Dark World? 434 million dollars total. Desolation Of Smaug? 661 million.

ONCE AGAIN, we're talking total costs here. @Darth: don't give me that, just check the link and be surprised. I'm not misreading it, it's a total breakdown, I have no idea what comprises exactly the marketing part but it's in there.

Just so we are clear, you do realize you just brought up home video cost and distribution cost right, right? Welcome to creative accounting, the movie version. Where they also avoided the other revenue those films made, that is in the hundreds of millions.

 

[JKKS085]

@Marvin: Check this out: http://issuu.com/pmcderek/docs/2013_most_valuable_blockbuster_tour/3?e=5873864/7267076

That's an extremely interesting link. I don't know how they could've had access to some of these numbers or if they just made stuff up (because you would need access to studio's accounting records for most of this stuff) but it seems pretty consistent from what I read and it really is a excellent read for someone thinking companies just make billions of dollars in profits out of their blockbusters.

It is factoring in a lot of things though (and leaving some major stuff out like merchandise revenues) that are not exactly related to the matter at hand.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

That's an extremely interesting link. I don't know how they could've had access to some of these numbers or if they just made stuff up (because you would need access to studio's accounting records for most of this stuff) but it seems pretty consistent from what I read and it really is a excellent read for someone thinking companies just make billions of dollars in profits out of their blockbusters.

It is factoring in a lot of things though that are not exactly related to the matter at hand.

They don't make billions. They make hundreds of millions. Each of those films did. Well unless you are Frozen and the Avengers. Then you do make billions.

 

[Tobias]

Just so we are clear, you do realize you just brought up home video cost and distribution cost right, right? Welcome to creative accounting, the movie version. Where they also avoided the other revenue those films made, that is in the hundreds of millions.

Exactly.

And Deadline is not what I'd rely on. Variety and Motley Fool for instance report MOS production cost at 225, not 258. Big difference. And they report lower distribution costs. Motley Fool has no reason to make numbers up given its reputation to its audience - the business community.

Creative accounting is the name of the game. SR had all previous attempts to reboot in the previous 10 years added to its cost which is ridiculous but allowed WB to show a big loss and not pay taxes.

I'd go with the Variety/Motley Fool numbers on TASM2 also. I think some of these numbers are being over-stated for TASM2. Not that they didn't overdue the spending but....

Yes, creative accounting too. SR had all cost from the attempts to reboot in its prior 10 years added to its costs. Ridiculous bout oit lowered WB's tax exposure.

 

[miltonh]

Usually movies need to make 1.75x of production + marketing budget. So yeah, finish under 730M would be dissapointing. But still think Sony will make few more movies however Sinister Six seems risky. Maybe it'll transform into Spider-Man 3 Part I and Part II?

 

[Tim_Riggins]

Just saying. It's interesting; Forgot the source: http://www.deadline.com/2014/03/despicable-me-2-2013-most-profitable-movie-universal/

 

[Eddie]

Usually movies need to make 1.75x of production + marketing budget. So yeah, finish under 730M would be dissapointing. But still think Sony will make few more movies however Sinister Six seems risky. Maybe it'll transform into Spider-Man 3 Part I and Part II?

Nah, they'll announce a two parter and then make it three films to justify the budget. Spider-Man: An Unusual Adversary, Spider-Man: The Desolation of Goblin, and Spider-Man: The Battle of the Five Other Villains We Threw In.

In all seriousness, I do agree that Sinister Six is risky. I think it will either be scrapped or see a reduced budget.

 

[Silver Surfer]

A Captain America movie made more money on it's OD/OW than a Spider-Man movie.....



...If you had told me that a few years ago....I...

 

[marcvader]

A Captain America movie made more money on it's OD/OW than a Spider-Man movie.....



...If you had told me that a few years ago....I...

Its not that surprising.once you consider one film is better made than the other.