The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[MessiahDecoy123]

This is the BO thread. So... kind of.

No, he means they don't really tell you anything.

Most movies seem to get an A- or a B+.

 

[miltonh]

OFFICIAL: #AmazingSpiderMan2 kicks off summer movie season at #1 w/ $92M wknd. 5 of last 7 summer kickoff films opened bigger. (via GiteshPandya on Twitter)

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

And The Winter Soldier also opened bigger in a worse release date so...yeah there is that.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

No, he means they don't really tell you anything.

Most movies seem to get an A- or a B+.

Which tells you most moviegoers enjoy the movies they see, but movies with a B+ will probably have less multiple views and weaker WOM than A and A- movies.

When you take the cimnemascore, the critical reception, and the under performing opening, you start to see a trend.

 

[Moridin]

Disney are better off letting Sony dig themselves into a hole and getting the licence back on the cheap. That said, the only way Sony gives up the Spider-Man rights is if they crash the franchise into the ground.

Eh, that's a balancing act. Sure, if Sony continue to dig a hole for Spidey Marvel will eventually get the rights back for a cheaper price, but the longer that goes on the bigger the hole is that Marvel will have to get Spidey out of.

Sony will be looking at how much TASM2 makes, then look at how much TASM3 will cost (the script has been written, right?). If TASM3 costs too much to make vs TASM2's box office take they'll have to go back to the drawing board with it.

With the diminishing returns the franchise is seeing vs cost of making these movies, Sony are in a tough position.

If they sell the rights back for a hefty sum now (which I think Disney would have no problem paying) they get a big chunk of change, but that leaves them without a tentpole franchise... but that franchise is making less and less money, & if they leave it too long they get less money from selling the rights back ... catch 22.

 

[miltonh]

BoxOffice.com: THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2: $277M Overseas Total / $369M Global Total #SpiderMan #AmazingSpiderMan2

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep, at least 700+mil wordwide, which is enough for a sequel of course.

 

[spider-neil]

Eh, that's a balancing act. Sure, if Sony continue to dig a hole for Spidey Marvel will eventually get the rights back for a cheaper price, but the longer that goes on the bigger the hole is that Marvel will have to get Spidey out of.

Sony will be looking at how much TASM2 makes, then look at how much TASM3 will cost (the script has been written, right?). If TASM3 costs too much to make vs TASM2's box office take they'll have to go back to the drawing board with it.

With the diminishing returns the franchise is seeing vs cost of making these movies, Sony are in a tough position.

If they sell the rights back for a hefty sum now (which I think Disney would have no problem paying) they get a big chunk of change, but that leaves them without a tentpole franchise... but that franchise is making less and less money, & if they leave it too long they get less money from selling the rights back ... catch 22.

Marvel/Disney aren't going to pay a penny to get Spidey back in the Marvel stable. They earn money off Spidey toys without lifting a finger.
The only way Spidey returns to Marvel is if 5 years expire before the next Spidey movie and I don't see that happening. And you know what, I don't know if I WANT to see that happen. ASM2 is my favorite CBM all time (my opinion, leave it at that) if Spidey returns to Marvel, he is going to rot on the Marvel shelf just like Daredevil is. I want my bi yearly fix of Spidey, I'm certainly not getting my Spidey fix from USM (animated series) and the comics.

 

[JKKS085]

Asia is strong but will be lucky to cover that decrease in Europe so OS finish around 470-510 is very realistic (and don't forget Sony will receive lower % from China than from UK or Germany). And then you have North America OW in low 90s - 2.6 multiplier and we're around 240. So don't see any other option than 710-750 millions worldwide.

I don't know how the film is going to perform in Europe but the more favorable €/$ exchange rate will help with a lower attendance in the Euro zone.
Take France for instance the film opened with 10% less tickets sold than TASM and yet grossed a bit higher in its first day all thanks to a lower dollar.
So this factor will help as well even if the global attendance is clearly decreasing Europe.

As for the multiplier, there's the memorial week end ahead but I think 2.6, given the lukewarm wom and the upcoming competition, is a tad too high.
The film as been extremely front-loaded (it's in the top 10 widest releases) and is likely to lose a lot of screens to the competition. I don't see it pulling off a multiplier above 2.4 (which is in the same range as Iron Man 3 and Thor The Dark World). Maybe not a GL 2.1 but I think anywhere between 2.25 (roughly Spider-Man 3's multiplier) and 2.3 is more likely at this point. That would put the film anywhere between 207 and 212M domestically if the week end estimates hold.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

Who would have thought that a Captain America movie would perform better than a Spider-Man movie. No one, not even people who were unsupportive of this movie, saw anything like this coming. This movie is just tearing apart at every seam. Clearly, something is wrong with the movie.

 

[Tobias]

I see this as confirmation its not esy to do a billion BO. Unless its a team film, IronMan or Batman.

800 million may be a more realistic expectation. If studios see this the budgets for production and marketing will be lowered. They have gotten totally out of hand.

 

[Raiden]

OS numbers look incredible and it will do better OW in US than some thought.

Can the film get close to 1 billion? Best case scenario.

Judging from the OW and the fact that Neighbors, Godzilla, and DOFP all will be challenging TASM2 in upcoming weeks, I don't think this movie will get close to 1 billion. And it is not OW that will make the difference, but rather WOM and the legs it can maintain on a weekly basis.

 

[JKKS085]

Who would have thought that a Captain America movie would perform better than a Spider-Man movie. No one, not even people who were unsupportive of this movie, saw anything like this coming. This movie is just tearing apart at every seam. Clearly, something is wrong with the movie.

That's not what a bunch people are trying to make it sound like.
Weirdly it's sometime the same people who laughed at those who said back in 2012 that Captain America 2 was going to be some serious competition for TASM2.

If I would have the time I would dug these threads up everytime someone says that a Captain America film grossing higher than a Spider-Man film in their respective opening week ends is nothing to be surprised about.

 

[spider-neil]

Who would have thought that a Captain America movie would perform better than a Spider-Man movie. No one, not even people who were unsupportive of this movie, saw anything like this coming. This movie is just tearing apart at every seam. Clearly, something is wrong with the movie.

BO is not an barometer of quality.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It did not do better than most thought it would do, it opened around it's lowered expectations.

 

[Raiden]

BO is not an barometer of quality.

How about reviews?

 

[Joe_Kickass]

I see this as confirmation its not esy to do a billion BO. Unless its a team film, IronMan or Batman.

And there's no reason as to why Spidey shouldn't be in the billion club. I find it hilarious how Iron Man, IRON MAN, is there but not Spider-Man. It's like we're in Topsy Turvy town or something, it doesn't make any sense at all.

 

[Suzanne78]

Marvel/Disney aren't going to pay a penny to get Spidey back in the Marvel stable. They earn money off Spidey toys without lifting a finger.
The only way Spidey returns to Marvel is if 5 years expire before the next Spidey movie and I don't see that happening. And you know what, I don't know if I WANT to see that happen. ASM2 is my favorite CBM all time (my opinion, leave it at that) if Spidey returns to Marvel, he is going to rot on the Marvel shelf just like Daredevil is. I want my bi yearly fix of Spidey, I'm certainly not getting my Spidey fix from USM (animated series) and the comics.

How is Marvel letting DD rot on the shelf? It's going to be a TV show next year.

While I actually would just rather see Marvel work on new properties, so I'm not keen on them getting Spidey back, if the next few weeks see a big decline in ASM2 box office, Sony would absolutely need to rethink their strategy as to the future of the franchise.

Is $700mil. locked now? Also, when is Godzilla getting released OS?

 

[Spider-Fan]

OFFICIAL: #AmazingSpiderMan2 kicks off summer movie season at #1 w/ $92M wknd. 5 of last 7 summer kickoff films opened bigger. (via GiteshPandya on Twitter)

The right movie won the OW weekend battle. I don't know if Cap 2 is going to end up higher WW or not, but I sort of hope so. I think it deserves the money more than this film does.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Marvel/Disney aren't going to pay a penny to get Spidey back in the Marvel stable. They earn money off Spidey toys without lifting a finger.
The only way Spidey returns to Marvel is if 5 years expire before the next Spidey movie and I don't see that happening. And you know what, I don't know if I WANT to see that happen. ASM2 is my favorite CBM all time (my opinion, leave it at that) if Spidey returns to Marvel, he is going to rot on the Marvel shelf just like Daredevil is. I want my bi yearly fix of Spidey, I'm certainly not getting my Spidey fix from USM (animated series) and the comics.

DD's getting his own netflix show. I don't understand why you think Disney wouldn't utilize Spider-Man.

when is Godzilla getting released OS?

I'm wondering the same thing. If it's released the same week as it is in NA, it won't have as big of an impact in those Spidey markets as it could.

 

[terry78]

BO is not an barometer of quality.

That's just something poor people say.

 

[spider-neil]

How about reviews?

I guess reviews are a better barometer of quality but 'the' barometer of quality is your own opinion. If I saw a movie with a low RT score and had no intention of watching the movie then I would conclude it is a bad film but only by watching the movie myself can I make a definative call one way or the other.

Going back to Spidey's BO, ASM1 could be a reason for the (relatively) low BO just like Avengers could be a reason for the high BO for Cap2. It doesn't have to be solely about the movie in question. Well recieved movies have flopped and poorly recieved movies have been hits. It's not an exact science.

 

[spider-neil]

That's just something poor people say.

I thought it was fat people

 

[spider-neil]

The right movie won the OW weekend battle. I don't know if Cap 2 is going to end up higher WW or not, but I sort of hope so. I think it deserves the money more than this film does.

I enjoyed ASM2 more than Cap2 and I'm not a hater as I saw Cap 2 twice.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

BO is not an barometer of quality.

What about reviews, audience reactions etc. Some of the lowest in franchise history, if not the lowest. Something is clearly wrong with this movie, it's not bias, franchise fatigue, there's something wrong with the movie.