The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Spider-Fan]

Yeah, just repeat what I said.

If this film does indeed fall short of 700 mil (which I am still unsure about), then I just want it to be known that I said it was possible for Cap 2 to be close to or beat Spidey if there was a wide disparity in quality. Just saying

 

[thomass]

But that would be horrible for the studio.


The financing is fine. The problem here is the film.


This happens every year. Look at John Carter, the Lone Ranger, Green Lantern, so on and so forth. Life goes on.

I do admire your tenacity. Still going...

 

[TeeKay]

This film is in trouble this weekend. Neighbours is a damn great comedy with heart.

 

[LizardMan07]

At what amount would sony start freaking out a bit? 650 million?

 

[JKKS085]

At what amount would sony start freaking out a bit? 650 million?

I think if it makes under 700 millions (which is still unlikely in my opinion) heads will roll. But in the end I think any result under TASM's final take will be a good reason to freak out.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I honestly think they'll freak out at anything less than $800 million.

 

[Spiderine]

It's very bad if this sequel makes less than it's predecessor. And a sign of a bigger trend with the films dating back to SM3.

And they want to do spinoffs?

 

[LizardMan07]

Not looking good for sony or the franchise at the moment, I do think the box-office results are driven primarily by the quality of the film in this case, it's such a shame a lot of people didn't connect with it.

 

[GenUsername]

At what amount would sony start freaking out a bit? 650 million?

Less than $750Mil. This franchise is in trouble. This is the last time rival studios will leave a 2 Week gap between Spidey and their big budget blockbusters. I can imagine the BO also declining for sequels, and the spin-offs just don't seem to like they would have much appeal.

 

[JOE]

Not looking good for sony or the franchise at the moment, I do think the box-office results are driven primarily by the quality of the film in this case, it's such a shame a lot of people didn't connect with it.

Spider-Man 2 made less than Spider-Man, that didn't make it any less of a film.

 

[JKKS085]

Spider-Man 2 made less than Spider-Man, that didn't make it any less of a film.

Spider-Man 2 didn't have the same release date nor did it face the same kind of competition.

 

[Leenie]

Spider-Man 2 didn't have the same release date nor did it faced the same kind of competition.

Nor did Sony have a need to worry about making any sort of profit with Spider-Man 2, like they are with TASM2 right now.

 

[Spiderdevil]

But that would be horrible for the studio.


The financing is fine. The problem here is the film.


This happens every year. Look at John Carter, the Lone Ranger, Green Lantern, so on and so forth. Life goes on.

My God!

Seriously you guys are so pessimistic

Granted its not putting things on fire but this will easily make above 700M if not above 675M

How is that even remotely comparable to 220M something the aforementioned films made?

 

[JOE]

Spider-Man 2 didn't have the same release date nor did it faced the same kind of competition.

The point I'm trying to make is the BO success and quality of the movie aren't always parallel. I'm sure they thought with the quality of SM2, it would hit over 900M.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Less than $750Mil. This franchise is in trouble. This is the last time rival studios will leave a 2 Week gap between Spidey and their big budget blockbusters. I can imagine the BO also declining for sequels, and the spin-offs just don't seem to like they would have much appeal.

Spider-Man still draws enough to hurt another blockbuster, especially when it comes to IMAX screens and such. It would be like Cap3 vs. World's Finest, a pyrrhic victory at best.

Is Spider-man still considered a four quadrant franchise? I can see studios doing the movie equivalent of counter programming.

My God!

Seriously you guys are so pessimistic

Granted its not putting things on fire but this will easily make above 700M if not above 675M

How is that even remotely comparable to 220M something the aforementioned films made?

I'm pretty sure DarthSkywalker's examples were a response to the following statement:

It was either Spielberg or Lucas who said recently one of these big blockbuster movies is going to bomb hard. We seem to be getting closer to that stage given the budgets of movies in recent years.

 

[Spiderdevil]

And for those who keep adding marketing budget to the production budget to gauge the success

Thats not how things work, most of the money 'spend' on marketing is just Sony paying itself

The production budget is what it needs to make up, not to mention it has got tax cuts, will sell DVDs, , partnerships and what not.

I don't think it will lose money

Its the quality of the movie I am disappointed about, a movie of say Cap Am2 quality and just 600M box office and I would take it in a heart beat

 

[XSpidercideX]

And for those who keep adding marketing budget to the production budget to gauge the success

Thats not how things work, most of the money 'spend' on marketing is just Sony paying itself

The production budget is what it needs to make up, not to mention it has got tax cuts, will sell DVDs, , partnerships and what not.

I don't think it will lose money

Its the quality of the movie I am disappointed about, a movie of say Cap Am2 quality and just 600M box office and I would take it in a heart beat

Yes, the rule of thumb for the break even point for a studio is:

If World Wide Gross = double the Produciton budget, the studio breaks even.

Anything above that is profit.

So break even for Sony on this film is 510 million WW. If they went all out with marketing it may be a little higher, but not much. This movie will make a lot of cash, but not the statospheric levels of the old films. Still a very good franchise to have, even with it's current BO numbers. I can see Sony easily making 150+ million in profit on this. It's still a huge franchise to have and nurture.

 

[starkresilient]

yep spidey is definitely losing its #1 spot

After a night of partying, the frat boys are still really high. The Universal comedy smoked Spidey last night by a wide margin — $19.5M vs. $10.1M to $10.3M. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has hit its wall in its second weekend … the revised total domestic cume for the Sony/Marvel franchise will be around $225M to $230M all in as the domestic audience for this one continues to shrink. The first installment ended up at $262M. Still, it is nearing $400M internationally so it will reach that magic number of $755M which means it will make a little profit (maybe 20%). The question remains as to how they are going to maintain this franchise with two more coming … no time to reboot this one. Now …. Neighbors: estimating $48.6 to $49M+, depending on today’s percentage decline. And ASM2: $36M to $37M. Congrats to Neighbor‘s Seth Rogen who starred and is one of the producers and boy, did Zac Efron need a hit. DEADLINE

@BoxOffice
NEIGHBORS opened with an estimated $19.6M on Friday. #Neighbors

 

[JKKS085]

Thats not how things work, most of the money 'spend' on marketing is just Sony paying itself

Wooo I feel like it's 2012 all over again.
Please explain again, let's say, how Sony spending $4M for a 30s super-bowl spot is Sony paying itself ?

 

[Tobias]

Deadline says the magic number is 755 million to make a 20% profit? How are they getting that number and the profit? Its different from others.

The basic rule is production the marketing has to be doubled at the BO to break even.

Some are saying marketing is "funny money" but Deadlines chart for profit/loss of films in 2013 specifically added the full marketing budget into each film's cost.

This is all over the place.

 

[Zarex]

Wooo I feel like it's 2012 all over again.
Please explain again, let's say, how Sony spending $4M for a 30s super-bowl spot is Sony paying itself ?

Even in a scenario in which the studio and network share a parent company - DOFP being advertised on FOX, FX or FXX - payment for the TV spots are still coming out of the production budget. Networks can't afford to "take one for the team" and give away advertising revenue.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

TASM 2 has a good chance of dropping under 60% with that Friday number and Mothers Day helping it out on Sunday.

Neighbors did fantastically and blew past my 37 or 38mil prediction. It's an easy number one and should do 47-50mil.

 

[Marvin]

It's very bad if this sequel makes less than it's predecessor. And a sign of a bigger trend with the films dating back to SM3.

And they want to do spinoffs?

It's only a bad thing if:
1)It's by a large amount
2)The revenue itself is very low.

For example by all accounts TDKR made less money for WB than TDK; given budget and domestic percentages and so on. A non issue however. ASM2 simply needs to perform respectively imo.

If this film does indeed fall short of 700 mil (which I am still unsure about), then I just want it to be known that I said it was possible for Cap 2 to be close to or beat Spidey if there was a wide disparity in quality. Just saying

It won't sniff 800. The international numbers are going to get hit hard due to other releases and the fact it has been out in many foreign territories for 3 or 4 weeks. Won't make enough by this point to do that type of business.

Seems the real or perhaps greater mechanism at play here is the release competition. I find it tragic how something can be such a huge factor in one discussion and almost a non factor in another.

Anyways,
The way people are reading this current, ASM2 might even do Thor2 numbers...That would be something.
I personally think TWS did great numbers.

 

[Marvin]

I'm kinda at a loss as to why a film needs to double it's supposed total budget to break even.

I mean if the 'total' costs are in the 450mill range, doesn't need to make 450 to break even? Honest question.

Given the current situation with say Pacific rim and the producer talking about that sequel: 200mill production budget. 400mill WW gross(100domestic).
I'm assuming Prim had a total cost of 400mill with promotion? Meaning it needed double that to break even? Again, I'm missing something.

 

[JKKS085]

TASM 2 has a good chance of dropping under 60% with that Friday number and Mothers Day helping it out on Sunday.

Neighbors did fantastically and blew past my 37 or 38mil prediction. It's an easy number one and should do 47-50mil.

With 10.1M, thursay/friday increase is on par (albeit a bit lower) with Spider-Man 3's 2nd friday. A 60%+ drop is pretty much a given at this point. The movie should land somewhere between 35/36.5M for the week end.

And on a side note in 8 days of release TASM2 is still falling 30 millions short of what Spider-Man 3 made in only 3 days. But everything is perfectly fine with the franchise, no need to worry, since it's about to gross around the same as a Thor film.