The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[an_ewok]

I'm kinda at a loss as to why a film needs to double it's supposed total budget to break even.

I mean if the 'total' costs are in the 450mill range, doesn't need to make 450 to break even? Honest question.

Studios don't get 100% of the films gross. In China, for example, Hollywood only sees 25% of the earnings there.

 

[starkresilient]

‏@giteshpandya
#AmazingSpiderMan2 bumped down to #2 spot w/ $10.1M FRI heading to about $36M. Will set new franchise low domestically.

 

[ironman_rick]

Mothers Day could help it on Sunday but these Spidey films have had less and less Women seeing them so how much it could help I do not know.

Which is quite odd as they were trying to get the female demographics on board with all the cutsey romance scenes in ASM1 & ASM2....

 

[lukebrodyg]

Even if this film fell below 200m domestic, it still won't be a flop.

The worst thing anyone can call this is a disappointment but ASM3 is happening regardless of this film's total BO haul.

 

[The Shape]

Pretty surprised at the disappointing domestic box office for Spidey. I personally blame the marketing. I think Sony needs to learn that "less is more" when it comes to pushing these films.

 

[Marvin]

Studios don't get 100% of the films gross. In China, for example, Hollywood only sees 25% of the earnings there.

Not sure how that answers my question...

 

[lukebrodyg]

Pretty surprised at the disappointing domestic box office for Spidey. I personally blame the marketing. I think Sony needs to learn that "less is more" when it comes to pushing these films.

Agreed.

I become less interested in something when I'm overexposed to it. I think that's human nature. Sony's marketing apparently thought otherwise.

I also don't like that they (marketing) had ANY influence on what was shot and ultimately not in the film. I think that's ridiculous. (see the "We have plans for you Peter Parker." line in the trailers).

 

[ironman_rick]

Pretty surprised at the disappointing domestic box office for Spidey. I personally blame the marketing. I think Sony needs to learn that "less is more" when it comes to pushing these films.

That................and release the damn movie at the same time (as much as possible) around the world. There were torrents all over the net a week before it hit the theatres in my country.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Studios don't get 100% of the films gross. In China, for example, Hollywood only sees 25% of the earnings there.

On average it is about 50% over the theatrical run of a film worldwide. The major market where the studio gets the biggest cut of the gross is the United States and the market where they get the lowest cut is China.

Now, this should mean that TASM2 needs to make $900 million to break even. But apparently Sony had some help with financing for the film, so it 'only' has to gross around $750 million according to reports.

I don't expect this film to lose money in the long run. Even if it doesn't break even during the theatrical run, there is DVD, TV rights, etc. The larger problem is it isn't going to make a big profit, and you don't invest $450 million to make your money back. Plus, the franchise as a whole has declining returns. TASM2 might break even, but continuing on the present course likely means its sequels won't. Finally, Sony is having severe financial problems in general. The company needs Spider-Man to prop up failures elsewhere. WB and Disney don't have this issue, so if a film underperforms they have less reason to panic.

So TASM2 might make a moderate profit, but not nearly enough for Sony to be satisfied with.

 

[starkresilient]

Not sure how that answers my question...

well if your movie earns around 450M that doesn't mean you get the whole 450M. There are different percantages around the world about how much money you get back. the average percantage becomes around %50. USA is the highest and china with %25 is the lowest. that is why your break even point should be way higher than your budget

plus decreasing domestic numbers are not a good thing since studios take the most money here

 

[Iceman]

Breaking even is fine but it's also a massive waste of time and effort. A company can just put the entirety of the film's budget into a bank or government bonds and get a pretty guaranteed return with almost no risk of any loss.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Which is quite odd as they were trying to get the female demographics on board with all the cutsey romance scenes in ASM1 & ASM2....

Garfield's Peter is an unlikable prick IMHO but to be fair each Spider-Man film had less and less women and everyone in general seeing it, at least in North America.

Honestly these films have made me not like Garfield as much as I used to. I know that's crazy and it's the writers fault but it's how I feel.

 

[an_ewok]

Not sure how that answers my question...

How on earth could you not be sure? If your film costs 450 mil, if it only makes 450 mil world wide, and you don't recieve 100% of that 450 mil, you didn't break even.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Garfield's Peter is an unlikabke prick IMHO but to be fair each Spider-Man film had less and less women and everyone in general seeing it, at least in North America.

Honestly these films have made me not like Garfield as much as I used to. I know that's crazy and it's the writers fault but it's how I feel.

Where do you get the demo breakdowns? I'm curious as to how the Spider-Man franchise stacks up among certain demos compared to other blockbuster franchises.

 

[Marvin]

well if your movie earns around 450M that doesn't mean you get the whole 450M. There are different percantages around the world about how much money you get back. the average percantage becomes around %50. USA is the highest and china with %25 is the lowest. that is why your break even point should be way higher than your budget

plus decreasing domestic numbers are not a good thing since studios take the most money here

How on earth could you not be sure? If your film costs 450 mil, if it only makes 450 mil world wide, and you don't recieve 100% of that 450 mil, you didn't break even.

I see, so it's this percentage of non domestics that's got people going. Not so much the goss figure. Begging the question, of just what would be considered 'breaking even' exactly.

Also, seeing has how my concern was that of relative comparison. I find myself asking just what it was Pacific Rim in fact did for the studio, what it was cap2 has done for it's studio..given just what it is we make of these international numbers.

...Spiderman 3.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Where do you get the demo breakdowns? I'm curious as to how the Spider-Man franchise stacks up among certain demos compared to other blockbuster franchises.

I read about them in weekend wrap up box office articles on box office mojo and box office guru and other such sites. I was going off of memory regarding the breakdown of the Raimi films.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I read about them in weekend wrap up box office articles on box office mojo and box office guru and other such sites. I was going off of memory regarding the breakdown of the Raimi films.

Ok. Thanks.

 

[X Knight]

Garfield's Peter is an unlikabke prick IMHO but to be fair each Spider-Man film had less and less women and everyone in general seeing it, at least in North America.

Honestly these films have made me not like Garfield as much as I used to. I know that's crazy and it's the writers fault but it's how I feel.

you mean I'm not the only one who feels that way??!!

 

[JKKS085]

I see, so it's this percentage of non domestics that's got people going. Not so much the goss figure. Begging the question, of just what would be considered 'breaking even' exactly.

Also, seeing has how my concern was that of relative comparison. I find myself asking just what it was Pacific Rim in fact did for the studio, what it was cap2 has done for it's studio, TDKR...given just what it is we make of these international numbers.

Roughly, studios take in 55% in North America, 25% in China and 40% everywhere else. Domestic takes are still more important especially because they are not sensitive to changes in exchange rates, foreign taxes, trade dues ...

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

you mean I'm not the only one who feels that way??!!

I feel that way too. It was bad in the first film, worse in this one.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I see, so it's this percentage of non domestics that's got people going. Not so much the goss figure. Begging the question, of just what would be considered 'breaking even' exactly.

I heard around $750 million. There is no exact amount because the value changes depending on the market and week of release (studios get more of the gross in the first weekend and then it rapidly decreases each successive week). Each dollar made opening day in the US is going to be far more valuable than each dollar made in China's 4th week.

So it depends a lot on where that gross is being made. But the industry average is that double the production & promotional budget is a good rule of thumb.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I felt Garfield's acting was much improved in this one, but yeah, the writers are still making Peter unlikeable.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Not surprised to see this huge drop from Fri-Fri and Neighbors knocking it off the top spot. I was thoroughly dissatisfied with this film and expressed to anyone that asked me as well as others who saw it with me. It really had the potential to be so much better but Sony, unfortunately, does not get how to do Spidey justice. You would think with Marvel making amazing films like Cap 2 and the Avengers other studios would be able to tell they need to find what makes their characters special and focus on that yet nobody seems to be getting that as of late.

I had high hopes for this film but now my new hope is these films will keep on track with this downward spiral and Sony will just sell Spidey back to Marvel Studios.

 

[lukebrodyg]

you mean I'm not the only one who feels that way??!!

Well he is a New Yoker....

 

[TalismanRing]

Roughly, studios take in 55% in North America, 25% in China and 40% everywhere else. Domestic takes are still more important especially because they are not sensitive to changes in exchange rates, foreign taxes, trade dues ...

Also studios get a far greater % of the box office in opening weeks - up to 90% of the gross which is why they love big opening weekends. The longer the run the higher the theater owner's %.

But the longer and stronger the run means the better the WOM which usually manifests in better ancillary sales.

Better domestic #s also usually correlates to better home video, streaming and TV revenue and the U.S. market also tends to be more profitable in those areas.

Then there's the tie in merchandise and toys. This is where Sony is really hurt since Disney owns all those rights and gets all those profits regarding Spider-man.