The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Joeyjojo72]

Guys that money pays everybody's salaries. "breaking even" is not the same as investing in treasury bonds. That money supports literally hundreds and hundreds of people who work on the film. Even if there isnt much left after everyones been paid, its still a worthwhile venture for most of the people involved. Of course the investors and execs at the very top might tend to disagree.

 

[TalismanRing]

Well he is a New Yoker....

So is Steve Rogers.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

you mean I'm not the only one who feels that way??!!

You most certainly aren't.

 

[flickchick85]

I have yet to find him unlikeable myself. *shrugs*

 

[Marvin]

I heard around $750 million. There is no exact amount because the value changes depending on the market and week of release (studios get more of the gross in the first weekend and then it rapidly decreases each successive week). Each dollar made opening day in the US is going to be far more valuable than each dollar made in China's 4th week.

So it depends a lot on where that gross is being made. But the industry average is that double the production & promotional budget is a good rule of thumb.

750mill to break even?
Whereas I thought it took 450...
That's a pretty big difference.

So then again, with something like Spiderman 3 which cost (according to the studio) 260. What's the break even there? And at this point I'm assuming PRim just exists in a giant hole given all the circumstances..
Something like TWS literally just started "breaking even" a few days ago?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I felt Garfield's acting was much improved in this one, but yeah, the writers are still making Peter unlikeable.

You pretty much nailed my opinion.

 

[JKKS085]

Also studios get a far greater % of the box office in opening weeks - up to 90% of the gross which is why they love big opening weekends. The longer the run the higher the theater owner's %.

But the longer and stronger the run means the better the WOM which usually manifests in better ancillary sales.

Better domestic #s also usually correlates to better home video, streaming and TV revenue and the U.S. market also tends to be more profitable in those areas.

Then there's the tie in merchandise and toys. This is where Sony is really hurt since Disney owns all those rights and gets all those profits regarding Spider-man.

Absolutely. That 55% in the US is an approximation (I think from The Hollywood Economist) that varies from film to film, during the theater run of said films and is most of the time the by-product of negociations between the studios and theater chains/owners.

There's really no way to know precisely how much money studios make out of a film theater run, and no way to create a model that would precisely tell you how profitable a movie is but that 55% seems to be quite accurate "most" of the time.

As for foreign returns, they depend on even more variables but the thumb rule is 40% except for China where it drop to 25%.

 

[Donut]

The question for Sony now is should they pass on Venom & The Sinister Six & finish off Andrews contract & have The Sinister Six & Venom be part of The Sinister Six in TAS3 & cram it all in one last not so Amazing movie & reboot it again

 

[Spiderdevil]

Deadline says the magic number is 755 million to make a 20% profit? How are they getting that number and the profit? Its different from others.

The basic rule is production the marketing has to be doubled at the BO to break even.

Some are saying marketing is "funny money" but Deadlines chart for profit/loss of films in 2013 specifically added the full marketing budget into each film's cost.

This is all over the place.

Okay then tell how did First Class make any money?
160M +100M (assumption) makes the budget 260
Doubling that gets you to 520M and it made 350M

By your logic the film lost 170M?

 

[Spiderdevil]

Wooo I feel like it's 2012 all over again.
Please explain again, let's say, how Sony spending $4M for a 30s super-bowl spot is Sony paying itself ?

Apart from that the rest is a smoke screen

 

[Tobias]

Okay then tell how did First Class make any money?
160M +100M (assumption) makes the budget 260
Doubling that gets you to 520M and it made 350M

By your logic the film lost 170M?

DVD sales, product placement, broadcast rights and such.

 

[Spiderdevil]

DVD sales, product placement, broadcast rights and such

170M in DVD sales and broadcast rights?

 

[starkresilient]

170M in DVD sales and broadcast rights?

you forgot the product placement which brings lots of money plus merchandising

 

[TalismanRing]

750mill to break even?
Whereas I thought it took 450...
That's a pretty big difference.

So then again, with something like Spiderman 3 which cost (according to the studio) 260. What's the break even there? And at this point I'm assuming PRim just exists in a giant hole given all the circumstances..
Something like TWS literally just started "breaking even" a few days ago?

TWS cost $170m, it's promotion budget is reportedly under $100m. It's made almost $700m so I'm not sure how it's just broke even even if it only got 1/2 which it didn't since big studios often have more preferable terms with theaters and distributors (and sometimes are their own local distributor) especially as regards their tent pole films.

China's 25% is lower than other foreign markets but studios don't have to pay any marketing costs there.

 

[JKKS085]

170M in DVD sales and broadcast rights?

As of today First Class made 57M in Home Video sales in the US only so yeah they probably got to that amount in DVD and BR sales worldwide. And then there's TV rights, merchandising, VOD, PPV ...

 

[Spiderdevil]

you forgot the product placement which brings lots of money plus merchandising

Which mean just like First Class,TASM won't lose money like people are predicting here

 

[Spiderdevil]

As of today First Class made 57M in Home Video sales in the US only so yeah they probably got to that amount in DVD and BR sales worldwide. And then there's TV rights, merchandising, VOD, PPV ...

Basically meaning it broke even 3 yrs aftet its release from DVD sales?

My point being, the marketing budget is not added when we say it needs to make double its budget to break even, other wise none of the big budget movies would make any money

 

[Frodo]

The question for Sony now is should they pass on Venom & The Sinister Six & finish off Andrews contract & have The Sinister Six & Venom be part of The Sinister Six in TAS3 & cram it all in one last not so Amazing movie & reboot it again

I do think the franchise needs to rest and regroup, but Sony can't do that because they know the mouse is waiting to take Spiderman back. They're kinda between a rock and a hard place in that sense. I do think a new creative team with a fresh pair of eyes may be a viable solution. Whether that means a sequel or rebooting the reboot however is another question. I really think the franchise needs to rest. I think the creators and Sony are burnt out on a basically decade long franchise. Bond and Batman benefited from a rest and I frankly think Spiderman would as well but that's not in the cards.

 

[TalismanRing]

170M in DVD sales and broadcast rights?

Ancillary TV and home video revenues aren't as massive as they were a decade ago (when they dwarfed theatrical) but they're still sizable and over long term usually bring in more than the theater box office and there's much less additional expense. DVD, Blu-Ray, VOD, Netflix, Google, Amazon, Cable, TV - Worldwide - bring it a lot of revenue and they do so for years. If you have a connected series new product can also move older product - like the Bond series has been doing for decades.

Also if you own rights to merchandise some films are a goldmine in other ways - Games, toys, clothes, cups, sheets etc etc...

That doesn't even take into account where different divisions of a company sell, buy and cross advertise from each other generating revenue between divisions but showing up as expenses on the bottom line for both. Just a small part of creative accounting.

 

[spiderman2]

I have heard to break even the movie needs to make like 700 but have also heard double marketing plus budget witch would be 450 times 2=900 but that doesn't sound right. It sounds like no movies would make a profit if it worked like that. Maybe it is double the budget plus the marketing not double the budget and markeing so for this movie maybe it is like this. 255 budget times 2=510+190 marketing =700 break even instead of 900.

 

[spiderman2]

Ether way the problem is that with the movies making less and less if the next 2 both making even less or the next one make a lot less say this one makes 700 and then the next one makes 600 or something then sony is just going to have to stop making the movies has it wont make them any money any more.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Which mean just like First Class,TASM won't lose money like people are predicting here

Who are predicting that? Whoever that person is they don't know what they are talking about.

 

[Raiden]

Box Office Mojo:

Friday Estimates:
1. Neighbors - $19.6 million
2. Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $10.1 million
3. The Other Woman - $2.8 million... >

I think it's almost certain that TASM2 will lose to Neighbors this weekend, unless they have a major comeback on Sat. and Sun.

 

[Marvin]

TWS cost $170m, it's promotion budget is reportedly under $100m. It's made almost $700m so I'm not sure how it's just broke even even if it only got 1/2 which it didn't since big studios often have more preferable terms with theaters and distributors (and sometimes are their own local distributor) especially as regards their tent pole films.

China's 25% is lower than other foreign markets but studios don't have to pay any marketing costs there.

Seems to me there is alot of different types of math and speculation flying around as it pertains any particular film

Right off the bat I find myself at a loss how people come upon they varying marketing costs for any of these films. Some of these big(super bowl spot) films have a marketing cost under 100mill, whilst others have a 250 number thrown at them. That alone I find had to process. Not simply the various discrepancies, but how we find ourselves coming upon them.

Then I'm told china and various other markets count for "little" going forward, yet when I apply this to the various films in the past that have made a killing there and abroad, it's less of a concern.(See PRim/TWS/TF3).

As for the insinuation for cap3 having just 'broke even' a few days ago; That is under the premise that the 'break even' number is consistent with this new math I'm seeing here. Production cost plus marketing cost(supposedly the same number according to the rule of thumb) amount to 170x2= 340milll, then take that and multiply it by 2 resulting in a 680mill figure. Seeing as how the film just past 683mill the other day....

^But that would be looking at things under the ASM2 model. Clearly a different model is needed for that scenario.

 

[Lighthouse]

The box office wouldn't be too bad except that Sony isn't getting a cent in merchandising.