The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Ms. Marvel]

Seems to me there is alot of different types of math and speculation flying around as it pertains any particular film

Right off the bat I find myself at a loss how people come upon they varying marketing costs for any of these films. Some of these big(super bowl spot) films have a marketing cost under 100mill, whilst others have a 250 number thrown at them. That alone I find had to process. Not simply the various discrepancies, but how we find ourselves coming upon them.

Then I'm told china and various other markets count for "little" going forward, yet when I apply this to the various films in the past that have made a killing there and abroad, it's less of a concern.(See PRim/TWS/TF3).

As for the insinuation for cap3 having just 'broke even' a few days ago; That is under the premise that the 'break even' number is consistent with this new math I'm seeing here. Production cost plus marketing cost(supposedly the same number according to the rule of thumb) amount to 170x2= 340milll, then take that and multiply it by 2 resulting in a 680mill figure. Seeing as how the film just past 683mill the other day....

^But that would be looking at things under the ASM2 model. Clearly a different model is needed for that scenario.

What? Marketing cost for TWS was less than 100M. BO.com has the overall budget for TWS at $235 M meaning it would need less than $500 M to break even.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

If this film does indeed fall short of 700 mil (which I am still unsure about), then I just want it to be known that I said it was possible for Cap 2 to be close to or beat Spidey if there was a wide disparity in quality. Just saying

Noted.

I do admire your tenacity. Still going...

I'm pretty sure DarthSkywalker's examples were a response to the following statement:

Yeah, I quoted the flippin' post.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

That being said BO.com has TASM2's budget at $330 M.

 

[JKKS085]

Basically meaning it broke even 3 yrs aftet its release from DVD sales?

My point being, the marketing budget is not added when we say it needs to make double its budget to break even, other wise none of the big budget movies would make any money

Back to 2012 once again. Very few 200M+ movies actually break even in theaters (and pretty much the same can be said for 150M+ movies though there are more exceptions). They make most of their money out of their side revenues (Home video, PPV, VOD, TV rights, merchandising, product placements ...) that's the current business model in Hollywood.
The trick with the Spider-Man franchise is that, given that Sony/Columbia doesn't get anything from merchandise anymore (unlike Fox with the X-Men), there movies start making money when they hit the hv market or when they sell broadcast rights. And when you put that in perspective with the poor economic prospects of the entire company, you start thinking that maybe, maybe, they expected the money now.

 

[spiderman2]

Is that budget plus marketing? because the other reports form deadline where 255 plus marketing of 180-190 for a 435-445 told.

 

[Marvin]

What? Marketing cost for TWS was less than 100M. BO.com has the overall budget for TWS at $235 M meaning it would need less than $500 M to break even.

That being said BO.com has TASM2's budget at $330 M.

As curious as I am as to how they are privy to their numbers(seems like just another site), 330 for ASM2 is alot different than what the various other sites with their insights are saying. Which is kinda my point.

Seems kinda moot till we get 'official numbers'.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

As curious as I am as to how they are privy to their numbers(seems like just another site), 330 for ASM2 is alot different than what the various other sites with their insights are saying. Which is kinda my point.

Seems kinda moot till we get 'official numbers'.

That's true...BO.com has a lower marketing cost for a lot of movies than most sites claim. That being said most websites have TWS' marketing cost below $100 M so I assume it's at least below $100 M.

 

[spiderman2]

I don't think we will ever know the real numbers lol

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

First Class very likely did lose money.

But...
A. Fox is in far better financial health than Sony.
B. There is a reason they brought back the old cast for DOFP instead of doing a straight FC sequel.
C. Rebuilding the brand after the disasters of Last Stand and Origins was more important than making a big profit.

 

[BlackFox]

Box Office Mojo:

Friday Estimates:
1. Neighbors - $19.6 million
2. Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $10.1 million
3. The Other Woman - $2.8 million... >

I think it's almost certain that TASM2 will lose to Neighbors this weekend, unless they have a major comeback on Sat. and Sun.

Woah a 71% drop

Could this seriously end up making less than $200 domestic?

I know the reception of this has been mixed to say the least but I never expected this sort of reaction. Sony really have made a mess of this.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

I don't think we will ever know the real numbers lol

Ultimately, they're irrelevant. The suits decide whether or not the movie was successful.

 

[hippie_hunter]

The box office wouldn't be too bad except that Sony isn't getting a cent in merchandising.

Exactly. That and what Sony is trying to do with the Spider-Man franchise makes this look even worse. It would be one thing to start spinning off if Spider-Man were still a franchise that is hot and growing. But when you're trying to make a Marvel Studios styled franchise with an IP that is declining, it just makes little sense.

But in terms of the money being made, it's not a bad number.

 

[Marvin]

Woah a 71% drop

Could this seriously end up making less than $200 domestic?

I know the reception of this has been mixed to say the least but I never expected this sort of reaction. Sony really have made a mess of this.

70 plus percent drop?

The film opened to a 'disappointing" just over 91mill(I know cause it was everywhere) and now it's estimated to be hitting 36-38ish million in the second weekend and that's a 70% drop somehow? Now I know I'm missing something. Should that be more like a 56% drop or something to that end?

 

[enterthemadness]

Wow. Could be a 2nd weekend gross as low as $34M. If so, $10-$15M next weekend when Godzilla hits....may be possible.

 

[spiderman2]

I think it was 70% form the first Friday may 3erd to yesterday may 10 not for the weekend yet has we don't now how much it will make today and tomorrow

 

[enterthemadness]

70 plus percent drop?

The film opened to a 'disappointing" just over 91mill(I know cause it was everywhere) and now it's estimated to be hitting 36-38ish million in the second weekend and that's a 70% drop somehow? Now I know I'm missing something. Should that be more like a 56% drop or something to that end?

71% drop is from last friday gross.

 

[Marvin]

I think it was 70% form the first Friday may 3erd to yesterday may 10 not for the weekend yet has we don't now how much it will make today and tomorrow

I see.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Exactly. That and what Sony is trying to do with the Spider-Man franchise makes this look even worse. It would be one thing to start spinning off if Spider-Man were still a franchise that is hot and growing. But when you're trying to make a Marvel Studios styled franchise with an IP that is declining, it just makes little sense.

But in terms of the money being made, it's not a bad number.

Right. In a vacuum, these numbers are decent. Not great, but okay. But there are a whole bunch of negative qualifiers with this film that make them worse than they would normally be.

 

[henzINNIT]

Hope this film continues to sink. Karma catching up with Sony.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Hope this film continues to sink. Karma catching up with Sony.

Who'd they kill?

 

[BlackFox]

Who'd they kill?

Peter Parkers character

 

[Visualiza]

Peter Parkers character

Ouch.

 

[grieven]

I think it was 70% form the first Friday may 3erd to yesterday may 10 not for the weekend yet has we don't now how much it will make today and tomorrow

70% drop from Friday to Friday may not be as horrible as it sounds, since last Friday's gross factored in midnight showings from Thursday.

That being said, it's still not lighting the domestic box office on fire.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So I guess the idea that so many on social media liked/loved this film wasn't exactly accurate. This is horrible WOM.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Peter Parkers character