I wasn't aware no girls watched Spiderman back in 2002. Like this recent catching fire, you don't open that big without 41% males adding to the box office. Only for someone to say, 'boys weren't there'. Big films need everyone to do their part.
That's not what I meant and I suspect you know that but it's always more convenient to rely on caricature right ? The point is most of TASM2's audience from day one was male under 25. Most of Neighbors audience is female under 25. Your point was that Neighbors stole the young female demo attracted by the romance aspect of TASM2. What I'm telling is that from day one the young girls demo drawn to Neighbors (per the breakdown demo) is not significant enough to justify the second week end drop since they don't account for most of TASM2's first week end audience (which is mostly male) in the first place.
If the movie was pleasing audiences, it wouldn't be performing the way it has. Regardless of how many more YA's it's supposed to pull in. Something I figured you would agree with.
Then again you're avoid the core issue which is that per it's numbers TASM2 attracts young kids and families. And young kids and families, just like you said last week, are not drawn to raunchy R-Rated comedies. Meaning that TASM2 core audience had pretty much no other option in theaters this week end. These are the reasons why (along with those developped in the earlier paragraph) it's a stretch to paint an R-Rated comedy as direct competition to Family driven comic-book movie.
The young female audience which favored Neighbors this week end wasn't drawn to TASM2 in the first place, the young male demo doesn't seem to be TASM2 core audience either otherwise it would have performed better during the week days and wouldn't display such a huge thursday/friday jump (take any MS movie released on the same spot, none displays a similar pattern) meaning that TASM2 core audience lies with kids and families. And the movie was unchallenged this week end.
Yes it is, I was looking at the Raunchy Comedy trends. Neighbors getting 53 female is listed as unusual. Supposing none of those females came from the potential ASM2 weekend crowd I'm sure.
As unusual as it is, it happened. I'm not talking about predictions here I'm just assessing facts even though I think it was quite obvious that Zac Efron would be a female draw.
I said they both faced competition.
No, no, no you said
"MOS faced a solid competition at the box office(though people like to ignore it), ASM faced solid competition at the box office". English might not be my first language but I think solid=solid.
You were comparing both film's competition and by all measures they are incomparable. So your comparision is irrelevant. Unless you can find a way to explain how a 82M, 4 quadrants animated movie and a 66M zombie action flick aimed to young males is similar competition as a 49M R-Rated comedy it'll still be utterly stupid to draw a parallel between these 2 films. Especially in a attempt to justify TASM2's 61,2% drop.
Here's the thing with the current discussion, when it comes to the range involved with beating rio or not; that number quite literally falls in between 3 or so million. I also factor in that ASM2 would have done better this weekend had it faced absolutely no competition let alone a 50plus million dollar opener that vys for 'a portion of it's pop culture and young demographic'. How much better? perhaps 3 or so million. Now instead of no competition we are replacing the X in this case with Rio2.
I still fail to understand how a one week old family flick with mixed reviews and wom was supposed to fare better against another family flick with poor reviews but the advantage of novelty, a significantly wider release too, than it did against and R-Rated comedy with a different core audience ? ASM2 core demo is not the "pop culture and young demo" it's families and kids.
But let's assume for one second that you're right. Let's assume that TASM2 lost 3M from it's ya audience to Neighbors that wouldn't be lost to Rio 2. And let's assume for the sake of it that it wouldn't have lost its core kid audience to Rio (despite the fact the it's the first major animated flick this year aside from The Lego Movie) or that the kid/family audience accounts for less than young adults (which is factually wrong) in TASM2's audience. Even with 3 more millions it would put the film's week end around 38,5M. Rio 2 did 39,3M. So it would have lost to Rio 2 as well. Per your own parameters.
You're fixating on 'quadrants' and such you aren't looking at what's infront of you. Let me take a moment to highlight another professional analyst who seemingly has my same embarrassing agenda:
You read that part about 'sucking up a healthy portion.."?
Yeah I know I make strange fixations on stuff that actually allows you to flesh out your line of arguments instead of just throwing things in the wild. Yeah, I'm nice like that.
Well as for Mendelson's quote it is what it isn i.e. someone's opinion with little facts to back it up. His numbers aren't exactly up to date either since his article is based on projections made on Friday with no indsight on Neighbors demo breakdown either. I think he might have a different perspective on these numbers now that actuals are out.
That's great that one is led by 60% males and the other led by 53% females. But it's about the cross over and how they affect each other for market share. Like I said, this isn't 12 years a slave, all your talk of 'different' demos does nothing to account for large a portion of the demos is the same. Let me guess that portion amounts to none? Or rather, none of relevance...If Neighbors opened with over 100million, I would hope the point would be made even stronger.
If Neighbors opened with over 100M, it would've massively reached outside of its ya demo so it would be an entirely different situation. No one is saying that TASM2 shares none of its audience with Neighbors because that would be rather silly (and to an extent 12 years a save shares some of its audience with TASM2 as well, albeit a smaller fraction probably). But saying that an r-rated comedy and a family driven comic book flick shares the same core audience to justify a drop is just as silly. Had TASM2 faced an other family driven flick it seems only logical to assume that it would've lost even more viewers to the competition.
I saw projections suggesting ASM would do better than it did actually. 40mill being the magic number. Google and I are close buddies and he's not finding me anything as it pertains to my parameters. I asked for trade tracking prior to the early weekend numbers coming in, ones with little to no mention of how strong Neighbors was doing/tracking. Ones that were seemingly solely based on the weekdays.
Forecast (May 9-11)
1. Neighbors - $41 million
2. Amazing Spider-Man 2 - $37.6 million (-59%)
http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3839&p=.htm
Neighbors (2014)/May 9, 2014/Universal $39,000,000
The Amazing Spider-Man 2/May 2, 2014/Sony Columbia/$37,000,000
http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_s...-legends-of-oz-dorothys-return-moms-night-out
Those are two forecast from the 2 main BO websites. Not that hard to find. They all have TASM2 dropping around 60% and, like I said, a far lower forecast for Neighbors first week end. These were based on TASM2's week days without taking in account Neighbors overperforming.
And I'm not the kind of person who pats itself on the back but earlier next week I predicted that it would land somewhere in between 35 and 36 millions and I too greatly underestimated Neighbors (and I didn't factor in my TASM prediction at all).
As for the issue of what I'm particularly saying being somehow different to what I said before. Please please tell me where now I'm saying anything about Neighbors bringing in families and children. Cause before I said it wouldn't bring in families and children, and now I'm saying it didn't bring in families and children.
Your twisting your own words, that's priceless ! When you were told that Neighbors could be direct competition you dismissed it by saying that it wouldn't attract families and children. Now you're saying it's competition and that TASM2 would've fared better against another film attracting children and families. That is saying one thing and the exact opposite. Either TASM2 attracts children and families and is therefore more exposed to another film attracting the same demos and Neighbors isn't direct competition or it's the other way around. You can't have both.
However there is no contraction in what I said vs am saying. Neighbors didn't take any kids/families, which was my point all along. As for what you really trying to drive home: what I believe ASM2 is 'aimed at' that would be a wide range of groups, including but not exclusive to kids. Much like Ironman, whatever pg13 will allow
Numbers show that it is not attracting the same "range of groups" as Iron Man or Captain America. TASM2 is, and I'm completely sick and tired of repeatig the same thing all over again, behaving like a children/family flick not your traditionnal PG13 comic book movie. There's no way around it.
Furthermore I estimated that ASM2 wouldn't drop over 60% particularly due to kids and families not leaving and having lots to talk about. To which end the released numbers suggest I was right on both counts.
I think you were wrong ...
#2 The Amazing Spider-Man / Sony / $35,501,212 -61.2%
The only agenda I see going here is your relishing of this films detraction. "Win win" and all that if I recall a few pages back..
I'm pretty sure I'm simply commenting on numbers like I pretty much always do when it comes to box office (and I don't remember a "win, win" reaction from me). I didn't like MoS very much and that didn't prevent me from praising its healthy box office take. Now to be completely honest, I won't say that I'm not happy to see Sony, and their cynical approach on this franchise, bite the dust but had the numbers been better I would just praise them as well. And if overseas markets gross past 500M I would be the first to say that it is a good number.
Clearly and that's not a problem.
But in order not to derail this thread furthermore with lengthy messages such as this one, I suggest we discuss this in pms from now on.
t:
Then we'll know if TASM 2 will even sell anymore tickets past this Thursday lol.
Was a tad bit dissapointed by it though.
