The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[MessiahDecoy123]

Sony revealed that it expects to post a $1.27 billion loss.

http://ca.ign.com/articles/2014/05/13/sonys-ceo-executives-taking-50-pay-cut-losing-bonuses


Sony is drowning, only a matter of time before they auction off Spidey.

It seems like Sony has plenty of money to burn.

They might have more time to turn things around and salvage their studio.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

Did you just say that because you didn't like a movie you warned off your family plus friends instead of valuing them as individuals and let them decide for themselves?

Ok.

I'm not sure why that's a shock. No one values your tastes more than friends and family. That's what word of mouth is all about. I gave the same advice to my brother and told him TASM2 was a one-timer for me and he knew what that meant. He took his kids to see it anyway and while he agreed with me that the movie was a mess and not worthy of repeat viewing his kids liked it.

 

[JKKS085]

Neighbors is said to have a 53% female demo[...]

Well I must say that you lost me there.

I don't have your time, or taste for spinning for that matter, to assess everything wrong with your post and frankly you're making a fool of yourself going off course like that, raising irrelevant new questions after and handfull of other irrelevant questions, throwing new movies in the mix to confuse the issue (which is a simple one) even more.

So many words and you still fail to back up your theory with one single fact or piece of supporting data.

When you'll decide to get back on track and dicuss these things seriously (ie with facts to back up your theories) let me know.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm not sure why that's a shock. No one values your tastes more than friends and family. That's what word of mouth is all about. I gave the same advice to my brother and told him TASM2 was a one-timer for me and he knew what that meant. He took his kids to see it anyway and while he agreed with me that the movie was a mess and not worthy of repeat viewing his kids liked it.

Dang, your brother must be rich. It cost a fortune to take your whole family to the movies.

 

[rayc1971]

a spiderman film doing only 215mill domestic is very bad when the budget is around 250mill.the first one only did 262mill domestic I don't no how sony is going to fix this franchise my idea would be to have kraven and black cat in the next one so I can keep the budget down to about cap numbers like 170mill we don't need all that cgi

 

[Silver Surfer]

It seems like Sony has plenty of money to burn.

They might have more time to turn things around and salvage their studio.

It's their 4th annual loss in 5 years, and it's only getting worse each year. They won't have that money for long at this rate.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

Dang, your brother must be rich. It cost a fortune to take your whole family to the movies.

That's why he usually uses RT to gauge whether to take his family of six (four kids and a wife) to the movies and I can't say I blame him. When you factor in tickets and snacks for the family it adds up to a big chunk of change lol. He had me test the waters for TASM2 and I told him it wasn't worth the money but his kids are Spidey fans so he had to bite the bullet

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

That's why he usually uses RT to gauge whether to take his family of six (four kids and a wife) to the movies and I can't say I blame him. When you factor in tickets and snacks for the family it adds up to a big chunk of change lol. He had me test the waters for TASM2 and I told him it wasn't worth the money but his kids are Spidey fans so he had to bite the bullet

lol, I fully understand.

If my kids all agree a movie is a must-see then it's pretty much certain we're all going to see it no matter what that RT score or my wallet says.

 

[Marvin]

Well I must say that you lost me there.

I don't have your time, or taste for spinning for that matter, to assess everything in this post and frankly you're making a fool of yourself going off course like that, raising irrelevant new questions after and handfull of other irrelevant questions, throwing new movies in the mix to confuse the issue (and a simple one) even more.

So many words and you still fail to back up your theory with one single fact or piece of supporting data.

When you'll decide to get back on track and dicuss these things seriously (ie with facts to back up your theories) let me know.

My theory being that "I doubt" your proposed theory?
I didn't see much more concrete evidence on your part. You post your numbers and ignore the entirety of what it is they spell out. You talk about how the film is a kids film because of the way it performs then when pointed to the fact that several 'kids' film do just the opposite and several non kids films do just that..again ignored. You're pointed to several analysts that feel the same as I, you forgo it, citing the sentiment as silly. I find myself curious if any such analysts would argue your point about non effect(I'd be genuinely keen to hear it expressed in another way). As for making a fool of myself, I'd rather that than to continually resort to name calling and other such methods of distraction to try and make the point. Another "win win" for you I suppose.

Either way good show. As for getting back on track, yes let's discuss how ASM2's numbers are doing and what they mean..oh wait.

 

[JKKS085]

Either way good show.

Let's get real for a second and give proper credit when it's due, I couldn't have done it without you man.

I mean if it wasn't for you, for your talent at twisting facts, spinning numbers to make them say the opposite of what they actually mean, confusing simple issues and raising new ones when you're cornered by your own contradictions, taking exceptions and making rules out of them to serve an obviously biased agenda, none of this would have been possible.

Congrats buddy !

 

[chaseter]

I want to live in that world where ASM2's $35 million second weekend beats Rio 2's $39 million second weekend.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It seems like Sony has plenty of money to burn.

They might have more time to turn things around and salvage their studio.

They started selling real estate. That doesn't sound like they have plenty of money to burn.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Godzilla is not going to do $60 million. Americans just don't have that sort of history with giant monster films. King Kong (2005) opened at $50.1 million. Cloverfield (2008) opened at $40.1 million and Pacific Rim opened at $37.2 million. For Godzilla to open at $60 million would require a miracle or a dramatic and unexpected shift in the American zeitgeist when it comes to giant-monster films.

Two things. First, not many gain monster films have "great" reviews. Right now Godzilla is looking food on RT.

Second, they aren't selling it like a giant monster film. They are selling it like a disaster film, which has set US movie theaters alight in the past.

 

[Marvin]

Let's get real for a second and give proper credit when it's due, I couldn't have done it without you man.

I mean if it wasn't for you, for your talent at twisting facts, spinning numbers to make them say the opposite of what they actually mean, confusing simple issues and raising new ones when you're cornered by your own contradictions, taking exceptions and making rules out of them to serve an obviously biased agenda, none of this would have been possible.

Congrats buddy !

Sure thing.

Though more like refuting an observational assertion with several cases/illustrations to the contrary. In the face of that; "Exceptions". would be what we call the 'spin'.

 

[Marvin]

I want to live in that world where ASM2's $35 million second weekend beats Rio 2's $39 million second weekend.

Who wouldn't want to live in a world where Rio2 made that much money in it's second weekend. A land filled with purple grass and chocolate rivers to be sure. I'm in.

 

[JKKS085]

I want to live in that world where ASM2's $35 million second weekend beats Rio 2's $39 million second weekend.

I think you mean TASM 35M second week end beating Rio2 39 M first week end.

Precisely the reason why this guy made it on my "ignore list". At some point you just have to say enough with the nonsense.

 

[Tony Stark]

I can't see how this misses $200M, it will have to collapse to not do so.

By the end of Thursday it should be around $156M and by the weekend it should be around $171M at least.

Memorial Day 4-day weekend should pull in 10-12M.

People said the same thing of MoS making $300M, and it collapsed. Right now it's running 1M ahead of TDW for the same period of time, and fell behind TDW for the 2nd weekend.

If stabilizes and jumps back ahead of TDW for the 3rd weekend, it will end up north of 200M, if it's behind TDW for it's 3rd weekend, then Sony is going to have to fudge to get it to 200M.

 

[Marvin]

Still don't understand how ASM2 hitting a 33% demo with families then leads to families being the core demo. If that's all it takes to become core; then the 47% male demo for Neighbors might just be entitled to a toga party.

 

[JKKS085]

People said the same thing of MoS making $300M, and it collapsed. Right now it's running 1M ahead of TDW for the same period of time, and fell behind TDW for the 2nd weekend.

If stabilizes and jumps back ahead of TDW for the 3rd weekend, it will end up north of 200M, if it's behind TDW for it's 3rd weekend, then Sony is going to have to fudge to get it to 200M.

I think a good hold over the memorial day week end is key here (but surely not a given with DOFP opening the same week end). It could be enough to give the film the 5M boost it needs to secure that mark even if it completely collapses after that.

Now if it drops another 60% this week end and keeps on with the low week days trend then it'll be a different story.

Do we have examples of films opening with 90M+ and not grossing over 200M ?

 

[spiderman2]

All I can say is that this is said. If this movie may not even make 200 in the usa how much is asm3 going to make 140 million?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think a good hold over the memorial day week end is key here (but surely not a given with DOFP opening the same week end). It could be enough to give the film the 5M boost it needs to secure that mark even if it completely collapses after that.

Now if it drops another 60% this week end and keeps on with the low week days trend then it'll be a different story.

[b[Do we have examples of films opening with 90M+ and not grossing over 200M ?[/b]

No, but X-men Origins opened to 85 m and only made 179 m.

 

[spiderman2]

Oh really that is intresting

 

[Liam_H]

People said the same thing of MoS making $300M, and it collapsed. Right now it's running 1M ahead of TDW for the same period of time, and fell behind TDW for the 2nd weekend.

If stabilizes and jumps back ahead of TDW for the 3rd weekend, it will end up north of 200M, if it's behind TDW for it's 3rd weekend, then Sony is going to have to fudge to get it to 200M.

It should beat Thor:TDW second weekend. If it doesn't that would be another 60% drop, hard for me to see that happening. I can't think of a single traditional CBM this century that has done that. Watchmen doesn't count.

 

[Liam_H]

Well looking at the list, Elektra and Punisher:War Zone dropped 60+% twice after OW. So yea I doubt that's gonna happen.

 

[Tobias]

Has TASM3 been written? Even if it has it probably needs a close re-look and possible re-write. Even if TASM3 is delayed.

The next film needs something not done before on film to reinvigorate the franchise and lift the BO.

Death of Spiderman would be huge. Ending on a cliffhanger and setting up TASM4 as a must see film.