The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[Joeyjojo72]

Has TASM3 been written? Even if it has it probably needs a close re-look and possible re-write. Even if TASM3 is delayed.

The next film needs something not done before on film to reinvigorate the franchise and lift the BO.

Death of Spiderman would be huge. Ending on a cliffhanger and setting up TASM4 as a must see film.

Two words: frontal nudity.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

Two words: frontal nudity.

Not done on film? Are you Amish?

 

[Moridin]

Godzilla is not going to do $60 million. Americans just don't have that sort of history with giant monster films. King Kong (2005) opened at $50.1 million. Cloverfield (2008) opened at $40.1 million and Pacific Rim opened at $37.2 million. For Godzilla to open at $60 million would require a miracle or a dramatic and unexpected shift in the American zeitgeist when it comes to giant-monster films.

A few things;

- Neither Cloverfield nor Pacific Rim really matter here since neither are brand names like King Kong or Godzilla.

- Even so, Cloverfield cost $25m and made $80m US/ $170m WW.

Most importantly;
-King Kong's adjusted numbers are roughly:
$60m OW/ $263m US
$666m WW (without 3D or todays expanded markets).

As already pointed out, Godzilla is getting good reviews and is tracking well above $60m OW.

 

[JOE]

I hope the lack of success leads to them cancelling the Venom/Sinister 6 spin off. If I were Sony I'd put all my eggs in the TASM 3 movie and hope for the best. If it isn't well received like TASM 2, sell to Marvel and try something else. Franchise fatigue is a lot like metal fatigue, they bent the metal with TASM and now they're bending it back with TASM 2. If they bend it back one more time it's going to break.

 

[spider-neil]

I hope the lack of success leads to them cancelling the Venom/Sinister 6 spin off. If I were Sony I'd put all my eggs in the TASM 3 movie and hope for the best. If it isn't well received like TASM 2, sell to Marvel and try something else. Franchise fatigue is a lot like metal fatigue, they bent the metal with TASM and now they're bending it back with TASM 2. If they bend it back one more time it's going to break.

They should absolutely proceed with S6. They just have to make sure they make a movie that people give a **** about. With Goddard on board that may well happen. For Spidey to bounce back, something external to the movie has to entice the GA.

 

[Arach Knight]

Who cares about RT scores? Are people so inundated with "professional" opinions that they are some how incapable of drawing their own inferences without looking at analyst predictions? LOL

If RT scores were relevant, then Spider-Man 3 would have flopped and Attack the Block would have done gangbusters. Reality however says otherwise.

I am also unconcerned with tracking. I am not suggesting that Godzilla will flop (though the character has never been that strong in the West outside of mind share). It will do fine. I just have reasonable evidence (a historic trend) to doubt a $60 million opening.

Thus far, the best rebuttals have been arguments over the total gross/budget for the examples I gave (not my argument) or tenuous arguments about why my examples don't count as monster films, which is laughable, especially since Pacific Rim features kaiju (Godzilla is a kaiju), J.J. Abrahms himself set out to make Cloverfield the serious American take on Godzilla, and King Kong is the progenitor of the modern take on the genre, including two separate film showdowns with Godzilla.

Lastly, it is possible to disagree without being an ***hole. So many of you are electing to be rude and tell me that I don't know what I am talking about, yet all you have done thus far is parrot popular postulations. I drew a parallel and an inference based on a specific observable trend. At this juncture, I am the only person with a well formed argument for my position. At least I am thinking for myself.

Anyways, much like my $650 million estimate for ASM2, I am sticking with my position on Godzilla's opening weekend. We'll know for a fact come this same time next week. Though I am sure if it opens between $54-58 million, I'll still have people nitpick such figures as me "basically" being wrong. You people take this too seriously LOL. As if you have personal investment in the monetary success of these properties. Anyways, onward with the discussion on Spidey.

 

[JOE]

They should absolutely proceed with S6. They just have to make sure they make a movie that people give a **** about. With Goddard on board that may well happen. For Spidey to bounce back, something external to the movie has to entice the GA.

They couldn't make a Spidey movie people gave a **** about, what makes you think they could do it with a villain movie? It's going to flop, and hard.

 

[socool]

Has TASM3 been written? Even if it has it probably needs a close re-look and possible re-write. Even if TASM3 is delayed.

It's currently being written, yeah. By Orci and Kurtzman.

 

[Zarex]

Has TASM3 been written? Even if it has it probably needs a close re-look and possible re-write. Even if TASM3 is delayed.

The next film needs something not done before on film to reinvigorate the franchise and lift the BO.

Death of Spiderman would be huge. Ending on a cliffhanger and setting up TASM4 as a must see film.

I don't know if either studio would do it, but with Marvel's 4 Netflix shows starting this year a "Spider-Man and the Defenders" movie is an interesting possibility. After the planned Defenders miniseries on Netflix, have the 4 MCU street level heroes and the Black Cat join with Spidey against the Sinister Six on the big screen. Teaming up with fellow NYC based street level heroes makes more sense than the Avengers, and should be easier to do on a contractural level.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

It's currently being written, yeah. By Orci and Kurtzman.

I don't think so, at least that's not the impression I get from this interview

Speaking to Desde Hollywood, Webb had kind words for his colleagues, but no fears for the future of Sony's Marvel comic book series.



"I don't think it'll affect '[Amazing] Spider-Man 3.' I think that's a very protected storyline. I love those guys, and they're going to be great, they'll always be our partners."

https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/marc-webb-losing-writers-wont-hurt-amazing-spider-153200033.html

 

[socool]

I don't think so, at least that's not the impression I get from this interview

https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/marc-webb-losing-writers-wont-hurt-amazing-spider-153200033.html

Something might have changed, but they were brought onto the sequel long before this film even came out.

http://collider.com/amazing-spider-man-3-roberto-orci-alex-kurtzman/

 

[spider-neil]

They couldn't make a Spidey movie people gave a **** about, what makes you think they could do it with a villain movie? It's going to flop, and hard.

There have been 5 Spider-Man movies. There is obviously franchise fatigue, that is why a new and fresh S6 'may' be a shot in the arm for Spidey especially if the movie is well recieved.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There have been 5 Spider-Man movies. There is obviously franchise fatigue, that is why a new and fresh S6 'may' be a shot in the arm for Spidey especially if the movie is well recieved.

Fatigue only sets in when the films aren't working for the general audience anymore.

 

[TalismanRing]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice ·
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 took in $2.25M on Monday. Domestic total stands at $148.46M

​

56.5% drop from last Monday's mediocre Monday #. It's now almost $14m behind CA2's pace and continues to track alarmingly close to TDW.

TDW: $2,209,623 / $147,306,753 (2nd Monday Totals)

 

[Ajendo]

edit

 

[Ajendo]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice ·
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 took in $2.25M on Monday. Domestic total stands at $148.46M

​

56.5% drop from last Monday's mediocre Monday #. It's now almost $14m behind CA2's pace and continues to track alarmingly close to TDW.

TDW: $2,209,623 / $147,306,753 (2nd Monday Totals)

Yikes!

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Fatigue only sets in when the films aren't working for the general audience anymore.

There were eight Harry Potter films within a decade and fatigue never set in because the films remained consistently good.

 

[Donut]

I wonder what rights could Disney get back first. Spider-Man or Fantastic Four. Maybe Disney could start negations with Sony. They are in a bad spot as it is as anyway company wise in terms of profit. The head Playstation guy took a 50 % pay cut

 

[spider-neil]

There were eight Harry Potter films within a decade and fatigue never set in because the films remained consistently good.

Quality had nothing to do with the success of the Potter movies.
Potter 1 is DREADFUL.

 

[TalismanRing]

Yikes!

It should have a much better 3rd w/e drop though than TDW's 61% since Godzilla would have to over-perform to open to 1/2 of Catching Fire and SM3 dropped 50% against Shrek's $121m.

 

[JOE]

Fatigue only sets in when the films aren't working for the general audience anymore.

"Aren't working"? How about not showing up anymore? Look at the DOM numbers. OS are the only thing keeping the franchise alive.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Quality had nothing to do with the success of the Potter movies.
Potter 1 is DREADFUL.

In your opinion....I think a lot of people thought it was good.

 

[Tobias]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice ·
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 took in $2.25M on Monday. Domestic total stands at $148.46M

​

56.5% drop from last Monday's mediocre Monday #. It's now almost $14m behind CA2's pace and continues to track alarmingly close to TDW.

TDW: $2,209,623 / $147,306,753 (2nd Monday Totals)

Any guess as to Tues, Wed and Thurs numbers?

 

[TeeKay]

I know it's obviously bs but either way that'd be cool imo.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Who cares about RT scores? Are people so inundated with "professional" opinions that they are some how incapable of drawing their own inferences without looking at analyst predictions? LOL

If RT scores were relevant, then Spider-Man 3 would have flopped and Attack the Block would have done gangbusters. Reality however says otherwise.

I am also unconcerned with tracking. I am not suggesting that Godzilla will flop (though the character has never been that strong in the West outside of mind share). It will do fine. I just have reasonable evidence (a historic trend) to doubt a $60 million opening.

Thus far, the best rebuttals have been arguments over the total gross/budget for the examples I gave (not my argument) or tenuous arguments about why my examples don't count as monster films, which is laughable, especially since Pacific Rim features kaiju (Godzilla is a kaiju), J.J. Abrahms himself set out to make Cloverfield the serious American take on Godzilla, and King Kong is the progenitor of the modern take on the genre, including two separate film showdowns with Godzilla.

Lastly, it is possible to disagree without being an ***hole. So many of you are electing to be rude and tell me that I don't know what I am talking about, yet all you have done thus far is parrot popular postulations. I drew a parallel and an inference based on a specific observable trend. At this juncture, I am the only person with a well formed argument for my position. At least I am thinking for myself.

Anyways, much like my $650 million estimate for ASM2, I am sticking with my position on Godzilla's opening weekend. We'll know for a fact come this same time next week. Though I am sure if it opens between $54-58 million, I'll still have people nitpick such figures as me "basically" being wrong. You people take this too seriously LOL. As if you have personal investment in the monetary success of these properties. Anyways, onward with the discussion on Spidey.

When did Kong fight Godzilla a 2nd time? There is only 1 film, King Kong vs Godzilla in which they fight. They PLANNED to do a 2nd Kong vs Godzilla film after Godzilla vs Biollante, but Universal wanted too much money, so they made Godzilla vs King Ghidorah instead. You're maybe confusing the fact that the movie has 2 very different cuts of the film (American vs Japanese), but that is still 1 showdown.

I think Godzilla is making over 60 OW. The movie has strong reviews so far, and Godzilla is a brand name. One that hasn't had a theatrical film here in the US for a long time, and outright hasn't had a film made since 2004. Given that and the strong buzz around the film itself, I think over 60 mil will happen.