The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[CyclopsWasRight]

Currently #1 highest grossing movie internationally and #2 highest grossing movie domestically.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The official word from the Studio is that not all villians in the Sinister Six film will have been introduced before that movie. They intend to introduce at least a couple in that movie.

Also, the official word is they have not decided what TASM4 will be yet. Although I have a feeling it will likely follow up on the Venom film more likely than the sinister six. That is the safer bet for the studio. Avi Arad loves Venom too.

They are doing a Venom spinoff to set him up for TASM4 most likely.

Frankly, I don't see using Venom again trumping using the Sinister Six. Venom was done once in a Spider-Man film. The Sinister Six have not. Newer idea should come before rehashing something else. Do we really need another Spidey film coming out that everyone questions the need to exist again? I see a Venom/black suit based TASM3/TASM4 only doing that.

I'm still betting with Webb and Garfield likely gone after TASM3, and the fact Sony will be desperate for BO money, they push the SS forward. I'm banking on this being their response to the declining BO trend.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

So do domestic theaters. Thats why the rule of thumb to break even you look at WW box office and double the production budget. Because foreign and domestc take about 50% profit. So 255 x 2 = 510, then add marketing and promotion loss. An article calculated about 660 million WW for break even. Since the film will easily exceed 700 million WW, the movie will make well over 100 million after DVD sales and rentals, easily.

I'm fairly certain the DOM BO doesn't start at 50% they go up with each week a movie is released and stays in a theater

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Frankly, I don't see using Venom again trumping using the Sinister Six. Venom was done once in a Spider-Man film. The Sinister Six have not. Newer idea should come before rehashing something else. Do we really need another Spidey film coming out that everyone questions the need to exist again? I see a Venom/black suit based TASM3/TASM4 only doing that.

I'm still betting with Webb and Garfield likely gone after TASM3, and the fact Sony will be desperate for BO money, they push the SS forward. I'm banking on this being their response to the declining BO trend.

I suspect that is what they will do too. Hopefully, they move Goddard over to TASM3 to replace Webb as well, although that I am less optimistic about. The whole creative team needs to be cleared out and I hope Sony realizes that.

 

[Iceman]

So do domestic theaters. Thats why the rule of thumb to break even you look at WW box office and double the production budget. Because foreign and domestc take about 50% profit. So 255 x 2 = 510, then add marketing and promotion loss. An article calculated about 660 million WW for break even. Since the film will easily exceed 700 million WW, the movie will make well over 100 million after DVD sales and rentals, easily.

The overseas markets take a higher percentage (varies by territory) than domestic. Any article telling you it's the same for domestic and foreign is mistaken. Otherwise there wouldn't even be a need to differentiate between the two.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I suspect that is what they will do too. Hopefully, they move Goddard over to TASM3 to replace Webb as well, although that I am less optimistic about. The whole creative team needs to be cleared out and I hope Sony realizes that.

I hope they do as well, but at the same time, they have scheduled TASM3 on a very quick turnaround. 2 years. I don't see them cleaning house on an entire new creative team for this reason

 

[XSpidercideX]

The overseas markets take a higher percentage (varies by territory) than domestic. Any article telling you it's the same for domestic and foreign is mistaken. Otherwise there wouldn't even be a need to differentiate between the two.

There is a lot to figure out to see how much a movie makes. The comment at the bottom suggests just doubling the production budget and comparing with WW gross:

http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Currently #1 highest grossing movie internationally and #2 highest grossing movie domestically.

It's number 3 domestically behind The Lego Movie and Winter Soldier.

 

[XSpidercideX]

I hope they do as well, but at the same time, they have scheduled TASM3 on a very quick turnaround. 2 years. I don't see them cleaning house on an entire new creative team for this reason

Webb and Garfield will be gone for TASM4. Both have stated that. But The Amazing Spider-man will continue with a new director and Peter Parker. So even if they don't get replaced for TASM3, you can still be excited to see what happens for TASM4.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Currently #1 highest grossing movie internationally and #2 highest grossing movie domestically.

You can spin numbers like this anyway you want but you can't spin the fact that the audience is shrinking with each successive film. The franchise is gushing more oil then the Exxon Valdez and the people behind it have demonstrated time and time again that they have no idea what the hell their doing. I'd call limping it's way to a 200 m domestic haul a major disappointment.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

It's number 3 domestically behind The Lego Movie and Winter Soldier.

You're right, my mistake.

You can spin numbers like this anyway you want but.

I'm not spinning nothing. It's a fact.

The movie is near the top both internationally and domestically, it's going to be a financial success ranking amongst the top of 2014.

This thread is about the box office of this movie for this year.

Comparisons to past movie performances and growth or shrinkage of the franchise over time is another matter.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

You're right, my mistake

No problem, everyone makes mistakes.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Webb and Garfield will be gone for TASM4. Both have stated that. But The Amazing Spider-man will continue with a new director and Peter Parker. So even if they don't get replaced for TASM3, you can still be excited to see what happens for TASM4.

That's like a sports team keeping around a coach who blew the last two seasons because they signed him to a 3 year contract. If he's shown he can't get it done after two, don't bring him back for a third. We have seen nothing from Webb to indicate he can turn this around. If TASM3 bombs, there might not even be a TASM4.

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

wow. the box office is not really picking up much.

garfield isn't coming back for the rest of the series?

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The movie is near the top both internationally and domestically, it's going to be a financial success ranking amongst the top of 2014.

This thread is about the box office of this movie for this year.

Comparisons to past movie performances and growth or shrinkage of the franchise over time is another matter.

It's the only thing that matters because it reflects the quality of the films, which are substandard compared to other films in the genre the past few years. The franchise is no longer a leader but a follower that can't keep up with the pack. It's financial success a hollow achievement.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

garfield isn't coming back for the rest of the series?

At least one more.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

wow. the box office is not really picking up much.

garfield isn't coming back for the rest of the series?

Garfield probably does one more, then he's gone.

 

[JKKS085]

I'm not spinning nothing. It's a fact.

The movie is near the top both internationally and domestically, it's going to be a financial success ranking amongst the top of 2014.

This thread is about the box office of this movie for this year.

Comparisons to past movie performances and growth or shrinkage of the franchise over time is another matter.

I think there's also a good chance TASM2 ends up ranking first on the list of the 2014 films featuring Spider-Man. It's also going to be on top of the list of 2014 films with Andrew Garfield as Peter Parker. Who would complain even if this overpriced film doesn't make a dollar off its theater run as long as it ranks amongst the top 2014 films featuring a character created by Stan Lee. What's the point in pointing out that TASM2 will have a domestic attendance 2/3rd lower than Spider-Man 1, or that despite the overall and exponential growth of overseas markets it'll barely make 10% more than a another film in the franchise released 12 years ago while every other franchises in the genre display two figures increase on that front.

I mean everything is fine right ? Even if hits an all time low for the character on films both financially and critically why would anyone complain ?

 

[Joe_Kickass]

At this point Spidey is basically a mainstream multiplatinum pop star heading towards irrevelance who is only being boosted by name alone rather than actual quality.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The distributor always gets credit, especially one with the clout WB has. But their deal was 50/50, so they only see half those profits, the other half going to Universal. Even Paramount was getting massive praise for their marketing work on the MCU. Now that's over and done with, but they made off like bandits on that deal. You can make the best film ever, but without a big time distributor, nobody's going to see your film. WB deserves massive credit.

Legendary, not Universal.

 

[Joe_Kickass]

I think there's also a good chance TASM2 ends up ranking first on the list of the 2014 films featuring Spider-Man. It's also going to be on top of the list of 2014 films with Andrew Garfield as Peter Parker. Who would complain even if this overpriced film doesn't make a dollar off its theater run as long as it ranks amongst the top 2014 films featuring a character created by Stan Lee. What's the point in pointing out that TASM2 will have a domestic attendance 2/3rd lower than Spider-Man 1, or that despite the overall and exponential growth of overseas markets it'll barely make 10% more than a another film in the franchise released 12 years ago while every other franchises in the genre display two figures increase on that front.

I mean everything is fine right ? Even if hits an all time low for the character on films both financially and critically why would anyone complain ?

As long as it makes $250,000,001 it's all good right?

 

[Iceman]

There is a lot to figure out to see how much a movie makes. The comment at the bottom suggests just doubling the production budget and comparing with WW gross:

http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable

Haha, I've read this exact article years ago. That method is obviously just a crude estimate. If you read up further on this the split that a studio gets varies by territory and surely you'd expect that (every territory will have different rules, taxes, levies and laws on what foreign companies can do). That doesn't mean that the measure is useless, it has more meaning when a film has a normal domestic/overseas split. It's not like this film is going to lose a load of money but Spidey has gone from juggernaut to a property that could lose money with future films.

 

[JKKS085]

As long as it makes $250,000,001 it's all good right?

On a more serious note TASM ended up 7th in 2012's WW BO.
How To Train Your dragon 2, Transformers 4, Hunger Games 3, The Hobbit 3 will quite surely outgross it. It'll get some serious competition from Captain America 2, Godzilla and X-Men Days of Future Past. Maleficient, Interstellar, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes and Big Hero 6 could be challengers too.

There's a decent chance it ends up in a worse position than TASM2 on that front despite a weaker roaster than 2012.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Question is now will the international market save TASM3 again? If the international market made $100m less for this movie then it would have been a bust even at $600m. Can TASM3 pull in $500m from the overseas markets like this movie did? Because I don't see it doing much better domestically, they'd be lucky to get a lateral movement.

 

[XSpidercideX]

Question is now will the international market save TASM3 again? If the international market made $100m less for this movie then it would have been a bust even at $600m. Can TASM3 pull in $500m from the overseas markets like this movie did? Because I don't see it doing much better domestically, they'd be lucky to get a lateral movement.

It won't need to if they budget the movie at 200 million and only spend the normal 80 million on marketing instead 190 million or whatever this one did. Obviously the huge experimental marketing did not work so they would be stupid to try it again. They should go back to normal ads.

If they do that, they could make the movie only need 480 to break even instead of 660 or whatever this one needed. TASM3 could make even less money and they would profit more from it. They can make great Spider-man movies on less money, they don't need all the elaborate effects to tell a good story. They just need less CGI, less elaborate sets, and more practical every day environments and effects. It's not hard to do. Avengers cost less to make.