The Dark Knight Rises The Avengers will be direct competition in 2011

[Ronny Shade]

Star Wars episode 7 is coming out in 2011, too

 

[Dark Knight]

The Avengers movie is probably going to suck, so I wouldn't worry about it.

Besides, I thought that was coming in 2012

Exactly! Not worried at all about the supposed Avengers film.

That film will be for kids, while The Dark Knight sequel will be going for Oscars.

 

[Dark Knight]

Yep, Marvel are the ones with more work to do, Avengers could crash and burn before it gets made.

Exactly!

 

[FaT_tONle]

I can't see any minority of the mainstream audience deciding to see one film over the other.

Main stream audience that didn't watch IM despite that film making 300 million plus? Okay... TDK audience... that extra 200 million or so, came from non comic book fans and general people I get that. But Avengers doesn't need that because it is more family driven and more kids will go see it than they would TDK. Avengers... with the young audience... barring outright flops of Thor, IM2, Cap (any three or two semi flops) will be a lock for 350-450 with inflation. That mainstream audience that went to see TDK... that extra 200 million... not all of them will be back in theatres for a sequel. They may wait for a DVD or may pass altogether. It's tough getting those audiences back. See Batman Returns. TDK 2 won't do anywhere near 450.

 

[Infinity9999x]

Star Wars episode 7 is coming out in 2011, too

Is that a joke? Or are they actually going to make an episode 7?



Any who, I think there is definite potential for Avengers to be a big competitor for the next Bat film. Iron Man was hugely popular, Hulk stayed medium (no strong reactions against or for). If IM2 hits as big, or bigger then the first (and that's a very definite possibility), and Cap, Thor, and Ant Man don't completely bomb, Avengers is going to have huge buildup.

And if any of the other solo films besides IM2 do well, then it will definitely be big competition for B3.

 

[MessyPandas]

The Avengers film won't happen. By the time it rolls around there'll be soo many creative differences (seriously how many high class actors will be on board each wanting their respective directors to tackle it? Each wanting their own input on the story and a reasonable screentime?). Plus the scheduling nightmares.

But i'm not banking on Batman 3 in 2011 either. Certainly not from Nolan

 

[jmc]

Main stream audience that didn't watch IM despite that film making 300 million plus? Okay... TDK audience... that extra 200 million or so, came from non comic book fans and general people I get that. But Avengers doesn't need that because it is more family driven and more kids will go see it than they would TDK. Avengers... with the young audience... barring outright flops of Thor, IM2, Cap (any three or two semi flops) will be a lock for 350-450 with inflation. That mainstream audience that went to see TDK... that extra 200 million... not all of them will be back in theatres for a sequel. They may wait for a DVD or may pass altogether. It's tough getting those audiences back. See Batman Returns. TDK 2 won't do anywhere near 450.

I don't see how you can assume Avengers is a lock for anything remotely close to what you've forecast, Marvel have had one hit, Iron Man, that doesn't mean subsequent films are going to go that way too, hell, Hulk came out only weeks later and barely broke even. And the argument that more kiddie friendly film equals more money was disproved by TDK, whilst the assumption that a third Batman film won't generate the same type of people coming back, especially if the same team behind it returns and if it's a potential Oscar winning film, is just confusing.

 

[TheTrickster]

Who cares if they both come out at the same time and TDK seqeul doesn't make as much. The way i see it is we are potentialy going to get two good films for the summer '11.

Which film makes the most is of little benefit to me as i see none of the profits. Hopefully the competition will make the filmmakers try harder, and we the consumer get a better movie experience.

 

[FaT_tONle]

I don't see how you can assume Avengers is a lock for anything remotely close to what you've forecast, Marvel have had one hit, Iron Man, that doesn't mean subsequent films are going to go that way too, hell, Hulk came out only weeks later and barely broke even. And the argument that more kiddie friendly film equals more money was disproved by TDK, whilst the assumption that a third Batman film won't generate the same type of people coming back, especially if the same team behind it returns and if it's a potential Oscar winning film, is just confusing.

People don't always come back for sequels... if it's a sequel to a film with zero expectations then they will come back strong for the sequel... but by the third installment these franchises run out of gas. At least most of them. You can't really argue with that... I think it is completely laughable people are already penciling in 400 million for BB3. Who knows what inflation will be... but are you kidding me? As far as Marvel... if above average films like SM and IM can pull in 300-400 million plus... Avengers will certainly duplicate that. Having Thor in there does not hurt. All it has to be is respectable. Cap needs to be good though I'll give you that. No reason to think Marvel won't give us a brilliant film about one of its oldest characters. The case is still out... but Iron Man and a successful Cap movie will make Avengers a lock for those kinds of numbers... 450 may be a reach... but people have been waiting for an Avengers type film for quite some time now.

 

[Ziggyman]

Don't worry...Avengers will bomb!

 

[Boom]

Avengers has an extremely slim chance of being anything more than an average/mediocre superhero movie. I'm not concerned.

 

[jmc]

People don't always come back for sequels... if it's a sequel to a film with zero expectations then they will come back strong for the sequel... but by the third installment these franchises run out of gas. At least most of them. You can't really argue with that... I think it is completely laughable people are already penciling in 400 million for BB3. Who knows what inflation will be... but are you kidding me? As far as Marvel... if above average films like SM and IM can pull in 300-400 million plus... Avengers will certainly duplicate that. Having Thor in there does not hurt. All it has to be is respectable. Cap needs to be good though I'll give you that. No reason to think Marvel won't give us a brilliant film about one of its oldest characters. The case is still out... but Iron Man and a successful Cap movie will make Avengers a lock for those kinds of numbers... 450 may be a reach... but people have been waiting for an Avengers type film for quite some time now.

So it's laughable to believe a sequel to a massive money making, critically acclaimed and potentially Oscar winning film can reach massive numbers again (especially if Nolan and Co return) but not laughable for an untested team-up film with a bunch of characters yet to prove if they're even capable of making money on film to be locked in for such huge dollars? If Marvel spew out the same kind of film another 3 times with different costumed guys in the leads (which I get the feeling they will, the downside of single continuity), the chances are people are going to get bored very quickly, thereby Avengers could suffer before it even gets made, to assume anything regarding an Avengers or a Batman 3 film at this point in time is foolish.

 

[[A]]

TDK wasn't successful because it opened in July. It could have opened in June and it wouldn't have made a difference. They could easily release the third one in June and still make a lot of money.

I agree with you

I really should check this forum more often..

 

[FaT_tONle]

So it's laughable to believe a sequel to a massive money making, critically acclaimed and potentially Oscar winning film can reach massive numbers again (especially if Nolan and Co return) but not laughable for an untested team-up film with a bunch of characters yet to prove if they're even capable of making money on film to be locked in for such huge dollars? If Marvel spew out the same kind of film another 3 times with different costumed guys in the leads (which I get the feeling they will, the downside of single continuity), the chances are people are going to get bored very quickly, thereby Avengers could suffer before it even gets made, to assume anything regarding an Avengers or a Batman 3 film at this point in time is foolish.

I am sorry but when people are saying 400 million dollar locks that is laughable... but if I had a gun to my head... and the guy holding the gun asked me what film had a better chance of posting a number like that... I am going with Avengers just because of what history tells us... third installments have faired poorly over the years.

 

[Anita18]

I am sorry but when people are saying 400 million dollar locks that is laughable... but if I had a gun to my head... and the guy holding the gun asked me what film had a better chance of posting a number like that... I am going with Avengers just because of what history tells us... third installments have faired poorly over the years.

Hey, I'm just reporting what people over at box office forums have been saying! Some predicted $500 million after TDK's opening weekend, while I was still hoping for "just" $350m because even $400m was just too huge a number to comprehend for me.

But looking back on it now, $500m should have been expected all along after that monstrous opening weekend, because box office grosses always follow a particular formula. Movies that are >90% on Rotten Tomatoes rarely achieve a multiplier of less than 3x their opening weekend.

 

[TK1211]

I am sorry but when people are saying 400 million dollar locks that is laughable... but if I had a gun to my head... and the guy holding the gun asked me what film had a better chance of posting a number like that... I am going with Avengers just because of what history tells us... third installments have faired poorly over the years.

Third installments fair poorly because more often than not they're following terrible sequels. When the 2nd installment is good (X-men2) the 3rd will more than likely have a better box office (X-men 3). At this point TDK's sequel has everything in its favor to do better than Avengers.

 

[Paradoxium]

Lets be god honest, TDK had four things to give it the money it got.

1. Heath Ledger's death shot the publicity of the movie through the stratosphere.
2. The Joker is an interesting character despite a lack of back story.
3. Barely any competition
4. It didn't suck

I sincerely doubt any Batman movie will make more than TDK adjusted for inflation. Unless they re-reboot in a 50-60 years from now. But I do think a third Batman film will have a higher net profit than an Avenger film because the Avenger film will cost more to make with a higher marketing budget. Whilst Batman now has BB and TDK which gives it street cred, and a much lower budget since it is not a complete FX-bonanza.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Third installments fair poorly because more often than not they're following terrible sequels. When the 2nd installment is good (X-men2) the 3rd will more than likely have a better box office (X-men 3). At this point TDK's sequel has everything in its favor to do better than Avengers.

Yeah that's not a very good example. X-3 barely outgrossed X-2 and it had a much larger budget. For the big franchises... Spidey, POTC, Shrek, Matrix, etc... the second installments are usually the high points and make the most money on most occassions. It only goes down from there

 

[jmc]

I am sorry but when people are saying 400 million dollar locks that is laughable... but if I had a gun to my head... and the guy holding the gun asked me what film had a better chance of posting a number like that... I am going with Avengers just because of what history tells us... third installments have faired poorly over the years.

But if that's the case, the Avenger is doomed to suffer the same fate as Batman 3, will it not be Iron Man's (and possibly Hulk's) third outing? Going by your argument that franchises run out of gas by film three, who going to want to see Iron Man or Hulk a third time? The Avengers is after all technically a sequel.

 

[TK1211]

Yeah that's not a very good example. X-3 barely outgrossed X-2 and it had a much larger budget. For the big franchises... Spidey, POTC, Shrek, Matrix, etc... the second installments are usually the high points and make the most money on most occassions. It only goes down from there

POTC2 & 3 had only a year between films + increased competition.

Spidey 3 had the opening weekend record (appeal from Spidey2), but collapsed overall because it didn't meet the level of quality of Spidey 2. I hate to use this kind of logic, but if Spidey 3 had been similar in quality to Spidey 2, it could have sustained the momentum from its OW. Spidey 1 made more money anyway, so that example doesn't really fit.

Matrix Reloaded was not well received at all, hence 3 not doing well (and it was only released 6 months after).

Shrek is the only one that I can't really argue against.

Either way I think TDK2 has the cards stacked in its favor (assuming that Nolan & Co. return) at the moment. There's still several tie-in movies yet to come out, so until then no one can honestly say that TDK2 will for sure beat Avengers or vice versa.

 

[hatebox]

The very obvious point is also that Spidey and POTC 3 had terrible WOM, so after large openings they dropped rapidly.

If Batman 3 is, by some miracle, as good as TDK then you'd be looking at the same kind of legs. So high 300s, even 400 plus isn't out of the question.

 

[FaT_tONle]

But if that's the case, the Avenger is doomed to suffer the same fate as Batman 3, will it not be Iron Man's (and possibly Hulk's) third outing? Going by your argument that franchises run out of gas by film three, who going to want to see Iron Man or Hulk a third time? The Avengers is after all technically a sequel.

Avengers is not a third installment... where you are getting this notion is beyond me...

The very obvious point is also that Spidey and POTC 3 had terrible WOM, so after large openings they dropped rapidly.

If Batman 3 is, by some miracle, as good as TDK then you'd be looking at the same kind of legs. So high 300s, even 400 plus isn't out of the question.

I agree... but if Avengers is everything we think it can be... I would not be suprised if it has the biggest opening weekend all time. And if it's any decent it will certainly have legs to drive it to 400 million or more.

 

[El Payaso]

Avengers has an extremely slim chance of being anything more than an average/mediocre superhero movie. I'm not concerned.

Absolutely.

 

[jmc]

Avengers is not a third installment... where you are getting this notion is beyond me...

It's the third film featuring Iron Man (and possibly Hulk), it will be the second sequel for both.

I agree... but if Avengers is everything we think it can be... I would not be suprised if it has the biggest opening weekend all time. And if it's any decent it will certainly have legs to drive it to 400 million or more.

And if my father had breasts he'd be my mother. Marvel have had one hit, one, and people aren't just going to walk into theatres, WB thought that about Superman and look what happened.

 

[Citadel30]

POTC2 & 3 had only a year between films + increased competition.

Spidey 3 had the opening weekend record (appeal from Spidey2), but collapsed overall because it didn't meet the level of quality of Spidey 2. I hate to use this kind of logic, but if Spidey 3 had been similar in quality to Spidey 2, it could have sustained the momentum from its OW. Spidey 1 made more money anyway, so that example doesn't really fit.

Matrix Reloaded was not well received at all, hence 3 not doing well (and it was only released 6 months after).

Shrek is the only one that I can't really argue against.

Either way I think TDK2 has the cards stacked in its favor (assuming that Nolan & Co. return) at the moment. There's still several tie-in movies yet to come out, so until then no one can honestly say that TDK2 will for sure beat Avengers or vice versa.

LOTR: Return of the King was highly anticipated 3rd installment, and alot of that was due to the fact that Peter Jackson was directing it and he was HOT at that time. Well, right now- Nolan is the hottest director in Hollywood (IMO) and when he comes back on board, people will want to see BB3. I know with myself- when i go to a movie, i pretty much know what i am going to see based on the director's tendencies.

Also- its so hard to tell ANYTHING about BB3 yet because - well - WE KNOW NOTHING about it. The only thing we know is that Batman is going to be the "bad guy" in the eyes of the public. Whoever Nolan and Co. decides to bring on board in the role of the villain will set the tone for the movie. I am highly anxious to see who the new villain is and who will be playing it. I think it will be something along the lines of a "good guy" who is actually the bad guy- leading Batman to uncover some plan and exposing the "good guy" for what he is.