Homecoming The Box Office Thread - Part 1

[JKKS085]

This movie has great legs.

It absolutely does but at the moment 330M is the absolute higher end of expectations and Homecoming is more likely to end its run short of that mark than a couple millions above it.

335/345M is wishful thinking which is what the "not happening" was in reference to. I understand the general sense of excitement after such a successful run, but lets keep our expectations in check.

 

[spiderman2]

I think it can do 330. It was at like a pace to do like 327 after weekend 5 if it had made 90% of its final amount like a average movie does and with the way the last few weeks have been going I think it is showing sings that it is going to have better then average legs. I think 330-335 is what we are looking at.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I am sticking with $335-345 million because there is no real competition for the next month

 

[Talion]

It's getting to $330m and it has a good shot at $335m. It'll be at $320m by Sunday.

 

[iEquinox]

It should have just over $319M after Sunday. Next weekend should be close to $3M, hopefully a little over $3M. It will need a multiplier over 4x from there just to get to $330M. $330M is not easy and it is not guaranteed.

It will need an 8th weekend multiplier close to 6x to get to $335M. Out of all MCU movies that made over $750k in their 8th weekends(all but 3), none have ever gotten a 5x multiplier from their 8th weekend, let alone 6x. So, $335M is very unlikely; getting there from this point would be an unprecedented achievement for an MCU movie.

Ant-Man made $11M after its $3.07M 7th weekend. We should be happy if Homecoming can do the same after its 8th weekend and reach $330M.

 

[gerrym51]

It should have just over $319M after Sunday. Next weekend should be close to $3M, hopefully a little over $3M. It will need a multiplier over 4x from there just to get to $330M. $330M is not easy and it is not guaranteed.

It will need an 8th weekend multiplier close to 6x to get to $335M. Out of all MCU movies that made over $750k in their 8th weekends(all but 3), none have ever gotten a 5x multiplier from their 8th weekend, let alone 6x. So, $335M is very unlikely; getting there from this point would be an unprecedented achievement for an MCU movie.

Ant-Man made $11M after its $3.07M 7th weekend. We should be happy if Homecoming can do the same after its 8th weekend and reach $330M.

that should get it in same area of BvS and SS. Actually pretty good for a Spidey reboot. it did better than i thought it would.

I also think it will do at least 100 million in china. i see 900 million world wide.

 

[gerrym51]

I am sticking with $335-345 million because there is no real competition for the next month

Wonder Woman is being expanded nationwide starting tomorrow.- at least for a week in my area.

the key thing for both these movies is that the megaplexes have no good movies to show right now. dearth of good product.

IT might do something

 

[Tymminator]

It should have just over $319M after Sunday. Next weekend should be close to $3M, hopefully a little over $3M. It will need a multiplier over 4x from there just to get to $330M. $330M is not easy and it is not guaranteed.

It will need an 8th weekend multiplier close to 6x to get to $335M. Out of all MCU movies that made over $750k in their 8th weekends(all but 3), none have ever gotten a 5x multiplier from their 8th weekend, let alone 6x. So, $335M is very unlikely; getting there from this point would be an unprecedented achievement for an MCU movie.

Ant-Man made $11M after its $3.07M 7th weekend. We should be happy if Homecoming can do the same after its 8th weekend and reach $330M.

Ant-man got a nice tiny Labor day Monday bump, Hopefully Spider-Man:Homecoming will follow suit and get the same a few Mondays from now.

 

[iEquinox]

Holding on to its theaters very well once again, losing 219 for a total of 2,122 left this weekend.

It made $470,805 on Wednesday, a 37.1% drop from last Wednesday.

This weekend a few things will be affecting the box office. There's the Mayweather/McGregor fight on Saturday, which is getting $500M+ in pay-per-view sales in the US according to deadline. And there's the Game of Thrones season finale on Sunday as well.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I'd imagine $317-$318M after this weekend.

Equinox is right. $330M will be tough. But I'll be happy that it hits $320M and hoping on at least $65M from China, which will bring it to $800M WW.

 

[Iceman]

I'm glad that it's finishing well clear of the $300m mark. That'll do me.

 

[iEquinox]

$427,804 on Thursday, a 38.4% drop from last Thursday. With the weekend being affected by Mayweather/McGregor, GoT season finale and the hurricane in Texas the weekend will be slightly lower than it would have been without these factors weighing it down.

Hoping it can still do $3M+ and keep the lead in the comparison with Ant-Man, but these factors won't make it any easier.

I'd imagine $317-$318M after this weekend.

Equinox is right. $330M will be tough. But I'll be happy that it hits $320M and hoping on at least $65M from China, which will bring it to $800M WW.

Don't get me wrong, it is definitely going over $325M, and it should at least get very close to $330M if it doesn't make it.
$330M seems like a 50/50 shot at this point. I'm just saying $330M is not a done deal, and $335M+ would be very hard without an expansion.

Also, it's at $316.1M, so it should at the very least have over $318M after the weekend, and I'm hoping it can get past $319M on Sunday as well.

And since it also has some money left OS outside of China(mainly in Japan), it should need less than $50M in China to reach $800M+ WW.

 

[Talion]

Spider-Man: Homecoming did $427,804 this Thursday, grossing so far $316.1m. It already added $2m to its domestic gross this week, and while the weekend will face adversities like the Mayweather fight and a tornado in Texas, I'm firmly confident that it's grossing at the very least yet another $2.8-3.1m this weekend.

I don't think getting to $330m will be that hard, it'll have a nice bump from the holidays next weekend. I think that by two Mondays from now it'll have crossed $325m already. Given the reception of the film and lack of competition, I'd say it still has a chance of grossing north to $335m. So let's see.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

I'm glad that it's finishing well clear of the $300m mark. That'll do me.

Same.

$427,804 on Thursday, a 38.4% drop from last Thursday. With the weekend being affected by Mayweather/McGregor, GoT season finale and the hurricane in Texas the weekend will be slightly lower than it would have been without these factors weighing it down.

Hoping it can still do $3M+ and keep the lead in the comparison with Ant-Man, but these factors won't make it any easier.
Don't get me wrong, it is definitely going over $325M, and it should at least get very close to $330M if it doesn't make it.
$330M seems like a 50/50 shot at this point. I'm just saying $330M is not a done deal, and $335M+ would be very hard without an expansion.

Also, it's at $316.1M, so it should at the very least have over $318M after the weekend, and I'm hoping it can get past $319M on Sunday as well.

And since it also has some money left OS outside of China(mainly in Japan), it should need less than $50M in China to reach $800M+ WW.

I'll take $3M this weekend but for some reason I see it doing $2M. You're right though--I miscalculated and forgot to add Thursday's numbers so it'll definitely hit $318M. I'll bet it finishes off at 325-327ish.

 

[iEquinox]

Spider-Man: Homecoming did $427,804 this Thursday, grossing so far $316.1m. It already added $2m to its domestic gross this week, and while the weekend will face adversities like the Mayweather fight and a tornado in Texas, I'm firmly confident that it's grossing at the very least yet another $2.8-3.1m this weekend.

I don't think getting to $330m will be that hard, it'll have a nice bump from the holidays next weekend. I think that by two Mondays from now it'll have crossed $325m already. Given the reception of the film and lack of competition, I'd say it still has a chance of grossing north to $335m. So let's see.

Well, going by your range for this weekend means you think there's a good chance it's going below Ant-Man's weekend number from a week earlier in its release($3.07M). It has been above that for the last 4 weekends, and over the last few weekends it has slowly gotten closer.
Ant-Man had very good legs, and it looks like Homecoming might fall behind Ant-Man's numbers soon. If it doesn't fall behind and just does exactly what Ant-Man did after this Thursday, it gets $330.2M (in this comparison they're in the same week, so both have Labor Day next weekend to get the same boost btw)

That's why $330M doesn't seem like it's guaranteed(since it pretty much has to keep up with Ant-Man to get there). And adding another $5M on top of that is very hard at this point (it would require over 36% more from now on than $330M does, which is a big difference).

I also think it'll be very close to $325M on Labor Day, but just below it by less than a million.

But that doesn't mean it can add another $10M from there. Getting to about $325M on Labor Day would mean it did roughly the same as Ant-Man adjusted over the next 11 days.
Ant-Man adjusted added just under $6.5M after Labor Day was over. Asking for Homecoming to get to $335M is asking for it to make about 1.6 times as much as Ant-Man adjusted did after Labor Day.
That's a huge difference for movies that are within 6% of eachother for 5 weeks in a row, right?

Homecoming's lead over Ant-Man has gotten smaller over the last few weeks, not bigger. To suddenly go from 6% (and dropping every week) to a 60% lead would be quite an accomplishment in my opinion.

I think it would need to do something different to Ant-Man, like an expansion or re-release, or keeping an unusual amount of theaters for a longer time through October (Ant-Man kept going all the way into mid December btw).
Anyways, that's another way of explaining why $335M seems very unlikely to me, even knowing that it's getting a boost from Labor Day which could get it within $10M from there within 2 weeks.

Damn, this really turned into quite the story didn't it? It seemed so short in my head xD

 

[Mad Ones]

Is this the real narrative behind this movie's box office? I don't exactly trust Grace.
[YT]1zNXzxY4R4w[/YT]

 

[I Am The Knight]

I haven't seen the video but Grace Randolph is a known loony/dummy what is she saying?

 

[Krystal]

Drivel.

 

[zipzip]

She can't track boxoffice she thinks it wont make more than any Raimi film when it ends up being the 2nd highest grossing Spider-man film & beats Wonder woman worldwide she will get it.She also said F8 was a flop yet it made a billion and Guardians was a financial disappointment because it didn't make a billion lol she is strange

 

[iEquinox]

Is this the real narrative behind this movie's box office? I don't exactly trust Grace.
[YT]1zNXzxY4R4w[/YT]

Didn't watch the whole thing, but less than 2 minutes in and she has already made a mistake, saying the marketing budget is $140M+ according to deadline, but deadline has never said anything about the marketing budget.

Then later in the video she says "Sony spent more money than on any other Spider-Man movie to advertise this film". Again, completely false.

According to deadline, Sony spent "about $185M-$190M" on marketing for TASM2:
http://deadline.com/2014/05/amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-opening-big-debut-723393/

Then she says that she thinks it won't even pass Spider-Man 2's 783M WW, when it clearly will...

I wouldn't listen to a single thing she says about box office. She clearly has no clue what she's talking about, and she can't even get a few simple facts right.

 

[Talion]

Spider-Man: Homecoming might actually end up grossing more than all the other Spider-Man films unadjusted. It depends on China. Pre-sales there have being unsurprisingly great so far, $1m yuan with 13 days out for the actual release date.

My understanding is that comparing Spider-Man: Homecoming with Ant-Man is a mistake basically because those are two different films, aimed to somewhat different demos. Ant-Man works more like yet another Marvel Studios film, a good received one, but another one nonetheless. I give props to iEquinox for running the comparison between the films so far, it does makes sense, but I think Homecoming will keep behaving like an well received Spider-Man film and an animation film. What I mean by that?

Sony would be crazy if they aren't thinking an expansion for the next holiday weekend and just keep going from there. Both Emoji and Dark Tower are underperforming and both have more theaters than Spider-Man: Homecoming. The way I see it with the lack of big blockbusters and with Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League coming, I think that this film will just keep going until December, similar to what GotG Vol. 2 has been doing (it's crawlling slowly to $390m).

I think my predictions for this weekend were a tad bit conservative, so I'm going to make a breakdown:

Friday: $1.01m
Saturday: $1.3m
Sunday: 1.1m

Around $3.4m this weekend. Why I think that? Well, I think that Homecoming won't be affected as much as the new releases and will basically behave like the teens/kids alternative for the weekend. Either way, I'm enjoying this "box office predictions" fight with you, man. Let's see how gets this weekend right.

 

[Mad Ones]

I don't think she's crazy or stupid, but she does make crazy and stupid arguments in order to get video views and it works for her.

I haven't seen the video but Grace Randolph is a known loony/dummy what is she saying?

That homecoming is a flop.

Didn't watch the whole thing, but less than 2 minutes in and she has already made a mistake, saying the marketing budget is $140M+ according to deadline, but deadline has never said anything about the marketing budget.

Then later in the video she says "Sony spent more money than on any other Spider-Man movie to advertise this film". Again, completely false.

According to deadline, Sony spent "about $185M-$190M" on marketing for TASM2:
http://deadline.com/2014/05/amazing-spider-man-2-box-office-opening-big-debut-723393/

Then she says that she thinks it won't even pass Spider-Man 2's 783M WW, when it clearly will...

I wouldn't listen to a single thing she says about box office. She clearly has no clue what she's talking about, and she can't even get a few simple facts right.

Nice, good to hear, thanks.

 

[iEquinox]

My understanding is that comparing Spider-Man: Homecoming with Ant-Man is a mistake basically because those are two different films, aimed to somewhat different demos. Ant-Man works more like yet another Marvel Studios film, a good received one, but another one nonetheless. I give props to iEquinox for running the comparison between the films so far, it does makes sense, but I think Homecoming will keep behaving like an well received Spider-Man film and an animation film. What I mean by that?

Sony would be crazy if they aren't thinking an expansion for the next holiday weekend and just keep going from there. Both Emoji and Dark Tower are underperforming and both have more theaters than Spider-Man: Homecoming. The way I see it with the lack of big blockbusters and with Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League coming, I think that this film will just keep going until December, similar to what GotG Vol. 2 has been doing (it's crawlling slowly to $390m).

I think my predictions for this weekend were a tad bit conservative, so I'm going to make a breakdown:

Friday: $1.01m
Saturday: $1.3m
Sunday: 1.1m

Around $3.4m this weekend. Why I think that? Well, I think that Homecoming won't be affected as much as the new releases and will basically behave like the teens/kids alternative for the weekend. Either way, I'm enjoying this "box office predictions" fight with you, man. Let's see how gets this weekend right.

A bit weird that this comparison that you call a "mistake" is acting pretty much exactly the same as Homecoming for many weeks in a row huh?

But really, I don't think a more accurate comparison exists. I would love to see it if you can find one.

And it's not acting like an animated movie at all. Animated movies have very different drops/increases than what Homecoming is showing. It's acting pretty much the same as Ant-Man. The demographic is very similar, and both are "a Marvel Studios film", good received ones.

Also, you say it's different from Ant-Man because you think it will keep going until December. But Ant-Man also kept going until mid-December, so Ant-Man fits your description. And you seem to be unaware that Ant-Man has the 2nd best legs in the entire MCU. It did not act like just any MCU movie, and Homecoming will not beat Ant-Man's legs (it would need over $368.5M domestic to do that). So apparently a "well received Spider-Man film and an animation film" doesn't have legs quite as good as Ant-Man... A well received Spider-Man film not having legs as good as a well received movie about an unknown character is expected though, because of the fan rush inflating the opening weekend.

About that expansion, we'll see in less than 1 week. I don't think they're going to expand next week since it's still wide. And even if it does gain theaters, it won't be many.

With the hurricane, Mayweather/McGregor and the GoT season finale this weekend is affected by a few factors that are hard to put your finger on, but if I had to choose I'd give a weekend breakdown like this:
Friday: $875,000
Saturday: $1,350,000
Sunday: $850,000
Total: $3.075M

We'll see who's closer soon

 

[iEquinox]

Deadline on the Hurricane:

With Hurricane Harvey now a category 4, Regal and AMC have already closed their Houston locations. The storm is expected to linger until Monday or Tuesday, and the chains will review weather conditions each morning before reopening. They’re also keeping a watch on San Antonio which now has flash flood warnings. Regal shut down four venues in Houston: The Greenway 24, Marq*E 23, West Oaks 13 and Grand Parkway 22, while AMC has shuttered 13 including Corpus 16, Brazos 14, and the Studio 30; the latter of which is a high-grossing location.

http://deadline.com/2017/08/hurrica...ffice-slowdown-multiplex-closings-1202156433/

With theaters shutting down altogether in Houston(and we can assume in many surrounding areas as well), this could definitely have a significant effect on the numbers this weekend. Under $3M wouldn't really be surprising; there's a lot happening this weekend that affects the box office negatively.

Maybe next weekend, with all of these things are out of the way, holds can be a slightly better than they would be on a normal Labor Day weekend as the box office recovers a bit.

 

[Darepool]

I see Harloff on Schmoes downplayed Homecoming's box office as *not killing* by completely ignoring the fact it hasn't opened in China or giving any context as to what's happened the past decade with this franchise. People in the media don't want to entertain the possibility that this could pass WW if it performs well in China. The women on with him even called WW the highest grossing origin by conveniantly ignoring (cough) inflation*. Nice to gloss over facts to forward a story.

One thing's for sure, it won't be celebrated if it does. :wink: