The Dark Knight Rises The Box Office Thread

[redfirebird2008]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3426&p=.htm

That prediction seems way too high. If it had 3D, I think this would be possible. 3D has had a huge effect overseas. Look at the jump in gross between Transformers 2 and Transformers 3. It was almost entirely because of expanded markets with a huge 3D boost. TDKR will benefit from expanded markets, but not 3D. And I also think some of the established markets (like the UK and Australia) will drop in the same way it will drop in North America. Overall I expect a net increase overseas and large drop domestic.

$425m domestic, $475m overseas. $900m worldwide.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Damn. Could you imagine?

I mean, The Avengers is slated to break records but TDKR is predicted to smash those records in turn.

At this point, I wouldn't be shocked. TDK was a phenomenon (even in China with the banning).

 

[kvz5]

That sounds way too high for overseas. We'll see.

 

[MrWayne]

Cha-Ching!$!$!$

 

[redfirebird2008]

Damn. Could you imagine?

I mean, The Avengers is slated to break records but TDKR is predicted to smash those records in turn.

At this point, I wouldn't be shocked. TDK was a phenomenon (even in China with the banning).

It was one of the most bootlegged movies ever in China, so I do think TDKR will do well there. Inception opened way bigger than expected in China based on "from the director of The Dark Knight." But TDK did poorly in Japan, Russia, and plenty of other markets. I don't think it's going to do much better this time around.

 

[kvz5]

It was one of the most bootlegged movies ever in China, so I do think TDKR will do well there. Inception opened way bigger than expected in China based on "from the director of The Dark Knight." But TDK did poorly in Japan, Russia, and plenty of other markets. I don't think it's going to do much better this time around.

Like what I said before, China is going to be interesting. There's a chance that they might not show TDKR because of Bale's incident with the government but it will be a big factor to the sales if it does get shown there because of Nolan's and Bale's popularity since TDK.

 

[DarthAlani]

I would love for that $850m WW to come true. For now it will probably do $500-600m OS.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Didn't an executive at IMAX essentially let the cat out of the bag that TDKR would be released in China? He was bragging about the IMAX screen count for TDKR compared to TDK 4 years ago. If you add up all the IMAX screens in the world outside of China, it wouldn't be able to be released on the number of screens he was talking about. Seemed like a pretty strong hint that it will be released in China. But you never know with that government. The Bale controversy might torpedo the film's chances of being released there.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

It was one of the most bootlegged movies ever in China, so I do think TDKR will do well there. Inception opened way bigger than expected in China based on "from the director of The Dark Knight." But TDK did poorly in Japan, Russia, and plenty of other markets. I don't think it's going to do much better this time around.

China, no doubt, will be a great addition. TDKR could easily make 100 million in that market.

Japan was never fond of Batman.

Russia is 50/50. If the country has warmed up to the character, then Russia could be in the bag.

From there, it'll be unpredictable.

 

[Anno_Domini]

I have high hopes for TDKR's box office numbers

 

[AnneFan]

I have high hopes for TDKR's box office numbers

I can see the headlines..."The Dark Knight Rises to new box office records".

 

[Anno_Domini]

I can see the headlines..."The Dark Knight Rises to new box office records".

I can definitely see that and I would jump for joy if it were to happen.

 

[redfirebird2008]

China, no doubt, will be a great addition. TDKR could easily make 100 million in that market.

Japan was never fond of Batman.

Which is a perfect example of why the $850m prediction seems way too high. There are a lot of markets that aren't particularly fond of superheroes, in particular a dark superhero. If Pirates 4 needed a huge 3D boost to hit $800m and that franchise has a history of some of the biggest 2D overseas grosses ever, then it seems impossible for TDKR to make even more than Pirates 4 did overseas. To make $850m overseas, it would have to sell 20-30% more tickets than Pirates 4. Not going to happen.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Heck, $850m overseas from nothing but 2D and IMAX would be more tickets sold than the final Harry Potter movie overseas. No way in hell a Batman movie sells more tickets overseas than a Potter movie. Just not going to happen.

 

[DarthAlani]

I agree. But if that happens it would be shocking to say the least. I'm personally predicting $550m OS.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Heck, $850m overseas from nothing but 2D and IMAX would be more tickets sold than the final Harry Potter movie overseas. No way in hell a Batman movie sells more tickets overseas than a Potter movie. Just not going to happen.

Wait, wasn't it confirmed that TDK still sold more tickets than HP: DH Pt. 2? I remember reading an article bringing that point forward.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

DM - $490 million
OS - $480 million (with China)

 

[redfirebird2008]

Wait, wasn't it confirmed that TDK still sold more tickets than HP: DH Pt. 2? I remember reading an article bringing that point forward.

Not overseas it didn't. Domestic it outsold DH2 by a huge margin of roughly 28 million tickets when you get rid of DH2's 3D boost. That's 65% higher than DH2's domestic ticket total. But overseas, even without 3D DH2 still sold a lot more tickets than TDK did.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Hmmmm, while $825 million OS is alittle out there, it's not impossible. 2012 got most of its boost from the OS market.

With TDKR it's hard to predict where it'll place. It won't make Avatar money, but could very well rake in 1.2 billion or 900 million, for that matter.

 

[miggizle85]

$190 million OW
$580 million US
$770 million OS (with China)
$1.35 billion World Wide

And this is just my conservative prediction. I've made an even bigger prediction that was based on an absolute perfect storm of conditions: ie SpiderMan underwhelms, other movies out at the time suck as well (GI Joe, Savages, Vampire Hunter), movies released after it suck (Bourne, Total Recall, Expendables 2, etc), early reviews are RAVING (I'm talking Oscar talk for movie, director, actors, sup actors, actress, etc), it released internationally at times when nothing else is playing (for instance after the olympics), and of course the movie is as perfect as we all hope it is. In that case I see the movie making $2 billion WorldWide.

Laugh all you want. I don't care.

 

[DarthAlani]

It's your opinion and you're entitled to it. I would love for TDKR to make those numbers, but i'm being conservative.

 

[miggizle85]

[YT]iOOFGccTxdI[/YT]

"The Avengers is tracking to do better than The DArk Knight Rises"


?????????????????? How is there ANY sort of tracking information for TDKR yet? Is it not too early to track TDKR's opening weekend?

BTW I love that prick in the middle and his backwards logic.
"THe Dark Knight Rises is just the 3rd film". UHHHHHHHHH What? Just the 3rd film? Being "Just the 3rd film" made the inferior movies like ROTK, SM3, and X3 the highest of their respective franchise (despite being one of the weaker entries - especially in X3's and SM3's case)

 

[redfirebird2008]

[YT]iOOFGccTxdI[/YT]
Is it not too early to track TDKR's opening weekend?

Way too early.

 

[Liam_H]

Tracking now for TDKR is essentially pointless since it can change so much within the next two and half months.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Yep, way too early. It's April and the final trailer has yet to even be released.

Of course The Avengers is tracking bigger numbers right now. The film is at it's highest peak for the marketing and hype. TDKR, however, isn't in it's second phase of the marketing. It's still riding the wave from December.

Trust me, once the third trailer hits theaters, there'll be talks all over the net about how TDKR is going to outgross The Avengers. It happened in '08, after all.