The Dark Knight Rises The Box Office Thread

[Figs]

The Avengers just had a great trailer and TDKR's marketing hasn't really begun yet because the movie's still far away and it'd be a waste of money.

TASM's the one that should be worried now. Even on the internet, general interest in it is muted. The origin story angle is putting many off. On non superhero film sites the reaction I saw wasn't great, and I say that as someone who wants it to do well. It's going to have to have an advertising blitz in the 2 months before it's released to improve its perception.

Primarily fan boys. I guarantee a lot if not most of the general audience don't give a flying **** about that. I don't care if they redo the origin, I just want a good movie.

 

[hatebox]

Primarily fan boys. I guarantee a lot if not most of the general audience don't give a flying **** about that. I don't care if they redo the origin, I just want a good movie.

So do I, but on purely anecdotal terms it isn't just fanboys that are ambivalent to the origin. It might not be a deal breaker, but Sony need to do a hell of a lot better than the last trailer to convince a fair chunk of the casual audience this story is worth seeing. IMO.

 

[SpideyFan866]

This, the one to worry about at this moment is TASM.

Yes but isn't TASM at a similar point that TDK was.

When TDK was at this point, many were skeptical die to the changes to the Joker, etc and the only real hype was from the trailer and teaser.


Yes, there are also huge differences but the point is don't count out TASM.

It's marketing has just started to kick it into high gear. The viral marketing campaign has been very sucessful so far with the screenings and also the mark of the spider-man group spray painting events as well as the newest viral site http://webbedmenace.com which has already been largely sucessful with numerous fan submissions already w/ goodies going out soon to fans who signed up and submitted there.

I'm not worried about TASM.

Also, RIM reports 3 new theatrical posters will be released soon, so as of right now, the TASM marketing is lightyears ahead of TDKR's.

TDKR needs to catch up or face having numbers suprising lower than expected and I'm not saying TDKR will fail by not marketing but get real, for months out or not, they need to market.

 

[SpideyFan866]

Also, I went to see The Hunger Games yesterday, and everyone in that packed auditorium had a positive reaction to the second trailer for TASM, with a few claps and woos here and there. and that audience was DEFINITELY GA.

I also heard people say they they wanted to see TASM when they saw the poster in the lobby so I'm not worried about the GA.

Another solid trailer or 2 with some tv spots and some more posters, they will be locked down.

Also, Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone will be appearing at the Kids Choice Awards this year with a TASM spot expected to air during the show so that's the kid audience right their, about 1/4 of the box office for any Spidey film.

 

[Sharkboy]

Yes but isn't TASM at a similar point that TDK was.

When TDK was at this point, many were skeptical die to the changes to the Joker, etc and the only real hype was from the trailer and teaser.

TDKR needs to catch up or face having numbers suprising lower than expected and I'm not saying TDKR will fail by not marketing but get real, for months out or not, they need to market.

Oh believe me I'm not counting it out, im certainly rooting for it, but TDK was at a much much better place than TASM was at this moment, probably due to the immense positive buzz people got from the joker in the trailers, and unfortunately Heath's death brought a lot of GA attention and a whole new element into watching heath's performance. It also didn't have any real competition and came off BB which was a critical darling.

TASM is pretty much a remake/reboot, off a franchise that a lot of people love. Even all the hate piled up on SM3 could hurt this film (yet as well do it some god), it has two of the biggest superhero films up against it this year, and while i know the film doesn't come out for a while, I'm kinda disappointed that the marketing isn't a little stronger, esp because if this film fails, you can kiss goodbye to spidey on the big screen for a while.

TDKR can get away with it, it's coming up the biggest film ever (at the time) and apart from a few missing pictures and no real viral (something unnoticed by the GA) it's marketing is doing the same thing that TDK is doing. It will already make a ton of money based on it's name alone, it's effort in the last 2 months to its release determines whether it becomes one of the biggest films of the year, or something that matches (or beats TDK) numbers.

A lot more riding on TASM to succeed...hence my worry.

 

[Moridin]

Here's the list I posted in another thread. Unless I missed one these are the top contenders for the year. TDKR shouldn't have any issue being in the top 3 IMO

The Hunger Games
Breaking Dawn Part 2
The Avengers
The Amazing Spider-Man
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit Part 1 (how does this one work since most of the BO revenue will come in 2013?)
Brave
Prometheus

I'd put the new Ice Age in there, too. Ice Age 2&3 made $655m & $886m WW respectively.

Snow White & the Huntsman, Skyfall.
Maybe MIB3, Madagascar 3 & Battleship.

Also, The Hobbit will count for this year, as Avatar is counted for '09.

This, the one to worry about at this moment is TASM.

"Worry" is probably too strong a word. Spidey will do solid $$$ on name alone.

Lot of potential for blockbusters this year.

I'd add, a lot of potential for quality blockbusters this year

 

[johnny621]

I'm not worried about box office. I'll let the studio worry about that. I just hope that it turns out to be a great movie

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Yes but isn't TASM at a similar point that TDK was.

Not in the slightest. TDK was more like how Prometheus is now. 200% optimism. The December trailer blew everyone's socks off and speculation about Ledger's Joker was all but gone.

 

[Sharkboy]

I'm not worried about box office. I'll let the studio worry about that. I just hope that it turns out to be a great movie

Sure, but if it performs under expectations, I worry about potential sequels.

 

[Boom]

It'll perform well, but it doesn't have to be the highest grossing movie of the year for WB to go forward with the next franchise.

 

[Sharkboy]

It'll perform well, but it doesn't have to be the highest grossing movie of the year for WB to go forward with the next franchise.

Oh I was talking about TASM. Yeh if TDKR performs under expections, who cares we got ours

 

[Doc Phosphorus]

There's definitely a bit of Spidey fatigue. Anecdotal, of course, but from most of the GA I know there's been mostly reactions ranging from "meh" to "They're making another one?"

I'd say it's a gamble to make such an explicit reboot so quickly. It really hasn't been done on this scale. The Batman series lay dormant for 8 years, and was of course preceded by a monumental disaster far beyond the likes of the mostly meh-worthy (outside of fan circles) yet financially hugely successful Spider-Man 3. It needed a kick in the pants, whereas this just screams "low attention span." Any others have been soft reboots of lower-tier titles (Hulk, Punisher) so they're hard to look at for precedent.

 

[Poni_Boy]

There's definitely a bit of Spidey fatigue. Anecdotal, of course, but from most of the GA I know there's been mostly reactions ranging from "meh" to "They're making another one?"

I'd say it's a gamble to make such an explicit reboot so quickly. It really hasn't been done on this scale. The Batman series lay dormant for 8 years, and was of course preceded by a monumental disaster far beyond the likes of the mostly meh-worthy (outside of fan circles) yet financially hugely successful Spider-Man 3. It needed a kick in the pants, whereas this just screams "low attention span." Any others have been soft reboots of lower-tier titles (Hulk, Punisher) so they're hard to look at for precedent.

I don't know about that. General audience tracking for TAS is solid as hell. It's Spider-Man fans who are the most vocal about their displeasure. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's seen random people really excited from watching the trailer.

 

[Anita18]

In other news...Hooooly crap The Hunger Games just put up an estimated $155 million opening weekend. In MARCH. If THAT'S how the GA reacts collectively for a single movie nowadays (in MARCH!), I'll be mind-boggled come July 21!

 

[Boom]

And poor WB is going up against it this week with Wrath of the- .

 

[Poni_Boy]

In other news...Hooooly crap The Hunger Games just put up an estimated $155 million opening weekend. In MARCH. If THAT'S how the GA reacts collectively for a single movie nowadays (in MARCH!), I'll be mind-boggled come July 21!

I see so many people saying THG opening is weak and not important. Those people obviously don't understand that the barren wasteland for movies known as March doesn't pull those kinds of numbers for non-sequels and sci-fi actioners.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Not in the slightest. TDK was more like how Prometheus is now. 200% optimism. The December trailer blew everyone's socks off and speculation about Ledger's Joker was all but gone.

It wasn't gone, it was flipped from negative speculation to Oscar speculation.

 

[Boom]

- It's a March release.
- It's a movie led by a strong female protagonist.
- it's a very good movie.

The Hunger Games' success is very important. Anyone who says otherwise is ignorant.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I see so many people saying THG opening is weak and not important. Those people obviously don't understand that the barren wasteland for movies known as March doesn't pull those kinds of numbers for non-sequels and sci-fi actioners.

Hunger Games blew up in the last month or two, which is proof that WB isn't doing anything wrong in their marketing for TDKR right now. It's a waste of money to cram a marketing campaign down the public's throat 4 months in advance.

 

[Anita18]

I see so many people saying THG opening is weak and not important. Those people obviously don't understand that the barren wasteland for movies known as March doesn't pull those kinds of numbers for non-sequels and sci-fi actioners.

Wait, WTF is saying this? $155 million is a few million off from TDK. And Hunger Games doesn't have a 3D surcharge either, which is mostly how HP2 beat TDK.

Well there's still inflation (IIRC TDK adjusts to $170 million nowadays), but still! $155 million OW is crazy now matter how you slice it!

Methinks they're just jealous.

Hunger Games blew up in the last month or two, which is proof that WB isn't doing anything wrong in their marketing for TDKR right now. It's a waste of money to cram a marketing campaign down the public's throat 4 months in advance.

Absolutely.

 

[jmc]

- It's a March release.
- It's a movie led by a strong female protagonist.
- it's a very good movie.

The Hunger Games' success is very important. Anyone who says otherwise is ignorant.

Very true. It's a win for spacing out blockbuster movies and female action films.

 

[jb007]

The thing I think that could hurt The Avengers is if they don't touch up that cartoonish Hulk from the trailers.

The Hunger games' has done very well for a March movie. I'm sure the movie studio looked at the films coming out for Summer and went with March. Wise choice.

TDKR will rule the Summer! It is the most looked forward to film by far. Both E1online & USAtoday had polls in which TDKR scored in the 90's of Summer must see movies.

 

[CapedCrusader14]

I swear to god if theres not even a single promo image or two, or even a damn poster during April I think I'll just knock this film out of the way and fuel all my excitement into Prometheus.

 

[jmc]

See, HG proves it doesn't matter when you release a blockbuster. All this crap about the first week in May 'kicking things off' and 'summer season' is all bull ****. A big budget movie that is good will make money whenever it's released. All the studios are worried about is opening weekend numbers.

 

[CapedCrusader14]

I don't know how many people at my school went and saw Hunger Games over the weekend. They all seemed to love it. I chose to see The Raid anyway