The Iran Thread

[voyzovrezon]

This is a statement by Reza Pahlavi from yesterday:
"Today the world is witnessing the demonstrated anger of millions of Iranians against a regime that denies their most basic rights, including the right to choose leaders who could improve their abysmal condition.

There is no exit from this condition, so long as one man appropriates onto himself the “power of god” and controls the judiciary, the media, the security forces and, through direct and indirect appointees dictates the only candidates claiming to represent an impoverished and disenfranchised people.

Today I stand united with my fellow Iranians and call for the end of the Islamic Republic, or any other prefix in front of the name of my beloved Iran that indicates theocracy or any other form of disregard for democratic and human rights.

I caution the world that offering any incentives or “carrots” to the theocracy under these circumstances is an affront to the people of Iran. This is not a time for short-sighted, self-defeating tactical games. This is the time for the free world to stand true to its principals and support the people of Iran’s quest for democracy and human rights."

Wow! Power to the people!!

 

[StorminNorman]

Apparently Ahmadinejad's campaign slogan was “Ma mitavanim” (We can).

 

[StorminNorman]

Should Ahmadinejad stay in power in Iran, Obama should immediately announce he will no longer consider meeting with the Iranian government.

You cannot legitimatize a non-legitimate government.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

Mousavi was bad, he might have changed. He seems to want to take down the Islamic Republic and to get rid of the Ayatollah and actually have a democracy, but now it seems like the Mousavi supporters were only using his colour and his name to get together. Green is no longer a colour for Mousavi supporters but now it's the colour of the Resistance. At the moment it looks like Reza Pahlavi will be assuming the leadership of this new found Resistance.

Mousavi wouldn't have had anymore say over the nukes than Ahmadinejad. But with more freedoms inside Iran, the international situation between the US and Iran could have come to resemble India. People forget how America was afraid and condemned the Indians getting nukes because of the situation with Pakistan in the 90s escalating.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Last night in London after appearing on Keith Olbermann's show, I got an email from a well-connected Iranian who knows many of the power figures in the Tehran political order asking to meet me. I told him that the only place possible was Paddington on the way to Heathrow -- and there we met.

He conveyed to me things that were mostly obvious -- Iran is now a tinderbox. The right is tenaciously consolidating its control over the state and refuses to yield. There is a split among the mullahs and significant dismay with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. A gaping hole has been ripped open in Iranian society, exposing the contradictions of the regime and everyone now sees that the democracy that they believed that they had in Iranian form is a "charade."

But the scariest point he made to me that I had not heard anywhere else is that this "coup by the right wing" has created pressures that cannot be solved or patted down by the normal institutional arrangements Iran has constructed. The Guardian Council and other power nodes of government can't deal with the current crisis and can't deal with the fact that a civil war has now broken out among Iran's revolutionaries.

My contact predicted serious violence at the highest levels. He said that Ahmadinejad is now genuinely scared of Iranian society and of Mousavi and Rafsanjani. The level of tension between them has gone beyond civil limits -- and my contact said that Ahmadinejad will try to have them imprisoned and killed.

Likewise, he said, Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi know this -- and thus are using all of the instruments at their control within Iran's government apparatus to fight back -- but given Khamenei's embrace of Ahmadinejad's actions in the election and victory, there is no recourse but to try and remove Khamenei. Some suggest that Rafsanjani will count votes to see if there is a way to formally dislodge Khamenei -- but this source I met said that all of these political giants have resources at their disposal to "do away with" those that get in the way.

He predicted that the so-called reformist camp -- who are not exactly humanists in the Western liberal sense -- may try and animate efforts to decapitate the regime and "do away with" Ahmadinejad and even the Supreme Leader himself.

I am not convinced that this source "knows" these things will definitely happen but am convinced of his credentials and impressed with the seriousness of the discussion we had and his own concern that there may be political killing sprees ahead.

This is not a vision he advocates -- but one he fears.

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/2009/06/iran_there_will/

 

[TheComicbookKid]

That's not going to happen because that would be something great for America. The Iranian power structure would be up for grabs and I'm not sure the best elements would prevail.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

People have to stop looking at this as an international problem that includes the USA and Israel. The battle lies within the country and only the Iranian people can change the outcome of all of this.

 

[El_Citrus]

Are we looking at a full scale civil war brewing or an overwhelming resistance possibly forming and overthrowing the government?

 

[Kelly]

I'm not sure, but as soon as the foreign reporters are totally gone, I'm afraid much worse is going to happen. The last one will probably be leaving tomorrow, most are leaving today. They were told as soon as their Visa's run out they are to leave. Most Visa's for reporters are for about a week, maybe two. Most that are there run out today.

 

[hippie_hunter]

People have to stop looking at this as an international problem that includes the USA and Israel. The battle lies within the country and only the Iranian people can change the outcome of all of this.

While I do agree that only the Iranian people who can change the outcome of all this, it certainly is an international problem that can end up resulting in massive changes between the relationships that Iran has with the United States (it's pretty obvious that Mousavi would be a better partner for peace with the United States than Ahmadinejad and with Israel (Israel is more likely to preemptively attack Iran with Ahmadinejad in the Presidency than someone who is more moderate).

 

[El_Citrus]

I agree that this is going to get much nastier very soon. I think it will get to the point that those in power will either be forced to use the army to lock down the country and enforce a dictatorship or there will be bloody civil war between the resistance and supporters of the current regime.

 

[Kelly]

I don't know how militant the resistance is......most are young educated people. The Islamic leaders that spoke out against the voting have already been jailed, or under house arrest.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Definitely not a civil war. But the Resistance (that didn't get large numbers until just recently) is only starting to show that they don't answer to Mousavi and that their true motives are to overthrow the government. I heard again chants of "Death to the Dictator" today and chants asking the soldiers to join them. Today the numbers were much higher and the soldiers could do almost nothing. More and more cities now have members of the resistance.

 

[El_Citrus]

The weird thing is that CNN seemed to play it off as though the protesters were much smaller in number than those supporting Achmadinejad. What does it look like percentage wise in terms of people openly protesting to people openly supporting?

 

[Asteroid-Man]

I don't know how militant the resistance is......most are young educated people. The Islamic leaders that spoke out against the voting have already been jailed, or under house arrest.

They have VERY large numbers spanning across many cities. Their numbers are what is giving them victory against the regime.

While I do agree that only the Iranian people who can change the outcome of all this, it certainly is an international problem that can end up resulting in massive changes between the relationships that Iran has with the United States (it's pretty obvious that Mousavi would be a better partner for peace with the United States than Ahmadinejad and with Israel (Israel is more likely to preemptively attack Iran with Ahmadinejad in the Presidency than someone who is more moderate).

The people just require time. He government is too weak to do anything against other countries at the moment. But if another country, let's say Israel was to attack or invade, it would undo all that the Resistance has done and everyone will enlist in the military.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

The weird thing is that CNN seemed to play it off as though the protesters were much smaller in number than those supporting Achmadinejad. What does it look like percentage wise in terms of people openly protesting to people openly supporting?

95% to 5% for the Resitance. (Putting Government aside)

 

[Kelly]

They have VERY large numbers spanning across many cities. Their numbers are what is giving them victory against the regime.

95% to 5% for the Resitance. (Putting Government aside)

You have sources on this? I would be interested in reading them....

 

[Asteroid-Man]

I've been checking Al Jazeera, Persian satelite and a Persian radio station called Radio Farda. Have fun finding a translator for the last two sources

 

[Kelly]

Yeah....

 

[Grievous]

People have to stop looking at this as an international problem that includes the USA and Israel. The battle lies within the country and only the Iranian people can change the outcome of all of this.

But the Country's outcome might affect other Countrys.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

It won't. This is the chance for the country's problems to be fixed and for Iran to become an equal libertarian to countries like the USA, Canada and the UK. It was right before the last revolution and when they tried to nationalize the oil. Too many times have the involvement of outsiders ruined things for the Iranians. The oil nationalization with Mosadeq was thwarted by the USA crushing Iran's possibility of going into a democracy and having a great win for their economy. The USA and France's aid into making sure the last Revolution would happen so that the Shah (who was becoming an economic rival to the western countries) would be exiled and someone they (thought) they could control would be put in. When a resistance was first started to form, Iraq attacked Iran and people become very patriotic without regard to who their government was, disbanded their resistance to serve their country in the name of the new Regime, and now they are closer than ever to reaching democracy and I'm afraid of ANY outside involvement ruining it for the Iranian people again. They don't deserve to be in the situation they have been for the last forty years. Their culture is rich, their art is flourished, and they have some of the greatest architecture as well as a pride in who they are. Let them be and I'm guaranteeing that today's youth will fix the mistake that the previous generation made and it will not only be in favour to themselves but also the rest of the world.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Yeah....

However, there are some pictures and videos you can find on the internet.

 

[TheComicbookKid]

It won't. This is the chance for the country's problems to be fixed and for Iran to become an equal libertarian to countries like the USA, Canada and the UK. It was right before the last revolution and when they tried to nationalize the oil. Too many times have the involvement of outsiders ruined things for the Iranians. The oil nationalization with Mosadeq was thwarted by the USA crushing Iran's possibility of going into a democracy and having a great win for their economy. The USA and France's aid into making sure the last Revolution would happen so that the Shah (who was becoming an economic rival to the western countries) would be exiled and someone they (thought) they could control would be put in. When a resistance was first started to form, Iraq attacked Iran and people become very patriotic without regard to who their government was, disbanded their resistance to serve their country in the name of the new Regime, and now they are closer than ever to reaching democracy and I'm afraid of ANY outside involvement ruining it for the Iranian people again. They don't deserve to be in the situation they have been for the last forty years. Their culture is rich, their art is flourished, and they have some of the greatest architecture as well as a pride in who they are. Let them be and I'm guaranteeing that today's youth will fix the mistake that the previous generation made and it will not only be in favour to themselves but also the rest of the world.

Dude. That's a nice and all but you can't live in a more globalized world and act like you aren't apart of it. (I'm not talking about the US really) But a unstable Iran influences Iraq and Afghanistan. Two countries we have an interest in. If the government fights back, it could draw on resources from neighboring countries or groups like Hezbollah like we had to deal with in Iraq. I would love for everything to go great and the Iranians to solve to situation internally and peacefull, but their are more forces at work than just good, nice revolutionaries that want equal democracy.

Are you of Persian heritage or just a history buff?

 

[Heretic]

I've been checking Al Jazeera, Persian satelite and a Persian radio station called Radio Farda. Have fun finding a translator for the last two sources

I listened for awhile and think I made out "bomb", "death to infidels" and a commercial for taxi driving lessons.

Too easy? Maybe.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

Dude. That's a nice and all but you can't live in a more globalized world and act like you aren't apart of it. (I'm not talking about the US really) But a unstable Iran influences Iraq and Afghanistan. Two countries we have an interest in. If the government fights back, it could draw on resources from neighboring countries or groups like Hezbollah like we had to deal with in Iraq. I would love for everything to go great and the Iranians to solve to situation internally and peacefull, but their are more forces at work than just good, nice revolutionaries that want equal democracy.

Are you of Persian heritage or just a history buff?

Man, Iran's situation has NOTHING to do with Iraq and Afghanistan. And Hezbollah wasn't in Iraq. And the only solution that HAS worked in the past has been Revolution (and I'm not just talking Iran) Everytime a foreign country has tried to intervene they have only made matters worse (again not just talking Iran, but it has happened with Iran three times now in the last fifty years). Mark my words, if there is outside interference, all of the efforts of the youth will be in vain and everything will be undone. The USA has no business going into Iran right now so they shouldn't go, just like Israel attacking Iran would be random. The Iranian government talks a lot of **** but they won't actually do anything. But if Israel was to strike first, I'm sure Iran would be ready to fire missiles. But let's hope it doesn't come to that. This seems to be the best solution, and as long as people don't go "OUR COUNTRY SHOULD BE THE HERO HERE!" things will go fine. Yes I'm of Persian/Iranian heritage (my whole family was born in Iran, but had to move to Canada because of the persicussions on the Baha'is in Iran and I was born here (in Canada). I am also a very big history buff and I've been following the politics and human rights (or lack thereof) in Iran since I was a child.

I listened for awhile and think I made out "bomb", "death to infidels" and a commercial for taxi driving lessons.

Too easy? Maybe.

Either that was very racist or you're interpretation is terrible.