Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[FaT_tONle]

For those who still care about Iron man 2's box office numbers.

Worldwide: $605,185,164

Six hundred five dollars-hundred eighty five nickels-hundred sixty four pennies if I am reading that correctly... lowest grossing movie of all time.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Six hundred five dollars-hundred eighty five nickels-hundred sixty four pennies if I am reading that correctly... lowest grossing movie of all time.

Sarcasm?!?!

 

[Evil Twin]

Since really the only thing interesting left for the box office is whether IM2 beats IM1's domestic gross, a running update based on this weekend's estimates.

After 52 days of release, IM2 sits at $306,882,000 estimated.
After 52 days of release, IM1 was at $304,816,141.

IM1 was also showing better daily grosses at this point, so the gap will go down during the week. I think IM2 will get over $310 million domestic, but I can't see it doing $320 million at this point. It's looking increasingly unlikely that IM2 will top IM1 domestically, although, again, $315 million give or take is a success, whether or not the audience grew.

 

[Catman]

I think IM2 will get over $310 million domestic, but I can't see it doing $320 million at this point.

As long as the movie plays till September it'll reach $320 million.

 

[Evil Twin]

As long as the movie plays till September it'll reach $320 million.

Considering it's only about $2 million above IM1's pace, and IM1 made $318 million, it needs to show more legs than it's shown to date. Especially since IM1 has better daily grosses at this point.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

And for those curious about the total: $609,882,000 (Or 25 million more than IM1)

Interesting talk at BoM lately. Many are now gnashing their teeth over TS3's "disappointing" weekend. The idea that something weird is going on this summer is gaining acceptance.

I think TS3 is not a disappointment at all. Its just you guys here who expected way too much of it.
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Only relative to this market though, which no one predicted would be like this. If it were only the big movies missing big expectations, then I could agree that some of us expected "too much"...but its not just the big movies. We have 3 films that were near shoe-ins for 100m+ domestically in any normal year that are all going to miss that mark (and they all released within two weeks of each other).

We even have a WOM hit that should have hit 200m from its opening weekend in any normal year, and it looks like that might not happen now.

This is not about expecting too much from any given film, rather, its about the simple fact that none of us saw this deflated market coming. Relatively speaking, the big films are accounting for the near exact same market share some of us did expect them to.

So this could make the performance of IM2 and TS3 even more impressive in context.

 

[Crook]

TS3 is showing tremendous legs, currently. It'll easily be the highest grossing and critically acclaimed movie of the summer at this point.

 

[danoyse]

TS3 is showing tremendous legs, currently. It'll easily be the highest grossing and critically acclaimed movie of the summer at this point.

And it's on pace to beat Finding Nemo, which is Pixar's highest grossing film with $340 million.

 

[hatebox]

After the legs it's shown, TS3 completely kills the 'people just aren't into going to the movies' argument. It's been a bad summer because the films have been bad.

 

[ddddeeee]

Toy Story dropped much more than expected. It's still a huge hit but all trends from previous years seem to have vanished for this summer.

 

[hatebox]

A 46% drop for a $59m second weekend is excellent by just about any film's standards. The only anomaly this summer is that Hollywood hasn't released enough films that people especially want to see.

 

[dark_b]

After the legs it's shown, TS3 completely kills the 'people just aren't into going to the movies' argument. It's been a bad summer because the films have been bad.

its because the general public didnt pay money.

all of those movies were created for the masses and they had everything that masses liked.

bad?

 

[JeetKuneDo]

After the legs it's shown, TS3 completely kills the 'people just aren't into going to the movies' argument. It's been a bad summer because the films have been bad.

IM2 and TS3 are exceptions. And both of them opened less than "expectations" based on past summers. You can't connect a performance on opening weekend to quality....so something else is going on. Most of the people at BoM "expected" even more from both IM2 and TS3 and just about every other movie released this summer. The market shares are the same...it's just that the market is smaller.

 

[danoyse]

A 46% drop for a $59m second weekend is excellent by just about any film's standards. The only anomaly this summer is that Hollywood hasn't released enough films that people especially want to see.

It was also doing really well during the week too.

 

[Crook]

its because the general public didnt pay money.

all of those movies were created for the masses and they had everything that masses liked.

bad?

Evidently not if the audience refused to pay with their pockets.

This summer has sucked badly, bro.

 

[Tony Stark]

A 46% drop for a $59m second weekend is excellent by just about any film's standards. The only anomaly this summer is that Hollywood hasn't released enough films that people especially want to see.

46% is high for a Pixar film, plus if you add in the 3D boost. Nemo which is the film it's competing with for biggest return had far, far better legs. But even UP last year, with the 3D boost only had a 35% drop.

You have to compare apples with apples. Yeah IM2 had a higher than normal 2nd week drop with 59%, but outside of Spider-Man 1, over 50% drops are common for Comic book movies, even TDK had a 51% 2nd week drop.

TS3 has a higher than normal drop for a Pixar film, no doubt about it. But I agree that outside of TS3 and IM2, and maybe Karate Kid to a lesser extent, people have been generally unimpressed with the market this summer.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Iron Man 2 could start running behind the first next weekend. I'm guessing a 316mil finish now. Nobody expected the same multiplier as the first film but the legs have been worst than expected do to lukewarm reviews and word of mouth. This movie still made 300+mil so it alone shouldn't worry Marvel but I seriously think that they should take the criticisms of the movie to heart.

The idea that IM2 or any of these movies underperformed domestically because of the econ and higher ticket prices have yet to be proven. The Karate Kid has performed well and is probably getting a 3.0 multipler off of it's 55.6mil opening. There are reasons for all of these movies failures.

Iron Man 2: Opened lower than expected but it still had a huge opening, it's problem is it's word of mouth. In a Summer with no real comp there is no reason that it shouldn't have made atleast 335mil off of that opening. It's still a hit but it's one of those hits thats going to hurt the franchise moving forward. Like a far less suckier version of Spider-Man 3.

Robin Hood: This movie had a ridiculous over the top budget and dull previews and an actor that some people don't care for. I think that it was lucky to make 100mil.

Sex And the City: They should have never made a seque,l it's a one off movie and the trailers were terrible. It did less than I expected but thats because I didn't have faith in the moviegoing public.

Prince of Persia: Videogame movies are a joke to the audience, the previews were only okay and Jake G isn't an action star. The marketing department f**ked up big time. I liked the movie but it's not good enough to overcome all of the problems it faced.

Sherk Forever After: It did as well as can be expected. The 3D ticket prices are the only reason it's made the money it did though. The franchise is over but DreamWorks won't care because it still made money.

The A-Team: Silly trailers that only appealed to certain types and for my money it was a painfully awful movie. T.V movie movies rarely hit it big.

Knight and Day: (My feelings could change if it has Hangover style legs or something) The primise is dated, the trailers were bland as f**k and Tom Cruise has lost some of his mojo. I'm totally not shocked that this movie failed.

Toy Story 3 had a good drop this weekend, whocares if it didn't drop 35%? It's 57.5mil weekdays made up for that, the same can be said for the Karate Kid. Yes kids it doesn't matter how much you whine, Karate Kid is a big hit. Also Grown Ups had a great opening weekend.

Next up, Eclispe: I'm seeing the movie but I'm not sure which numbers it will put up. If it disappoints it's going to be because of the ridiculous speed in which the sequel was released. I'll be optimistic and give it 166mil 5day and 250 to 275mil total. I could still see it going way under those numbers but I'm fairly confident that it will make atleast 200mil, even if it has to claw it's way to that number. It's not going to make as much as New Moon so the studio better be happy with a well over 200mil number.

I'm still not sure about Avatar so I have nothing much to say on the subject.

 

[BestGirl]

^POP didn't just fail because of poor marketing and public disdain for video game movies. Critics didn't like it at all and I don't think the public cared for it all that much either. I thought it was a very bland movie, myself.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

$610,138,110 as of Monday.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

The idea that IM2 or any of these movies underperformed domestically because of the econ and higher ticket prices have yet to be proven. The Karate Kid has performed well and is probably getting a 3.0 multipler off of it's 55.6mil opening. There are reasons for all of these movies failures.

Iron Man 2: Opened lower than expected but it still had a huge opening, it's problem is it's word of mouth. In a Summer with no real comp there is no reason that it shouldn't have made atleast 335mil off of that opening. It's still a hit but it's one of those hits thats going to hurt the franchise moving forward. Like a far less suckier version of Spider-Man 3.

There's that "expectation" thing again. Based on last summer, other franchises. Most "expectations" were tracking at 150+ million opening. As you must know, opening weekend has nothing to do with word of mouth. So...why are almost all the movies opening lower than expected? Incredible coincidence?

And word of mouth has actually been good. Don't know where you get that from.

The big movies are getting the same market share, the market is just lower this year. TKK was thought to be a shoe-in for 200 million after its opening and great WOM...that ain't happening. Most thought TS3 would get 400 million easy...maybe not. Most thought IM2 would get 350 easy...nope.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Sad sad state of affairs when garbage like The Karate Kid makes some money and is considered a hit.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No movie with a 55.6mil opening is a lock for 200mil. You can't move the goal post after a movie opens, alot of people didn't even expect it to make 100mil and it's going to make well over that. It has made 3 times it's budget, it has overperformed. The Karate Kid is a big hit, like it or not. Also I haven't seen the Karate Kid so I have no idea if it's good or not but I can't imagine it being worse than Iron Man 2.

Trying to make everything a disappointment because Iron Man 2 was is silly.

 

[hatebox]

And word of mouth has actually been good. Don't know where you get that from.

This will always be anecdotal: if my friends say they hated it I'll say WOM is bad, if your friends liked it you'll say WOM was good.

What we can agree on is that if IM2 did have great WOM it didn't translate into great box office legs. Not like its predecessor.

 

[hatebox]

Sad sad state of affairs when garbage like The Karate Kid makes some money and is considered a hit.

In what world is it not a hit with those numbers vs. the expectations it had

 

[ElMariachi]

This will always be anecdotal: if my friends say they hated it I'll say WOM is bad, if your friends liked it you'll say WOM was good.

What we can agree on is that if IM2 did have great WOM it didn't translate into great box office legs. Not like its predecessor.

oh for the love of christ. Are you guys still on this!? IM2 will end up making pretty much the same amount of money as the first movie, domestically, so word of mouth really wasn't all that different. It did much better internationally, so it's a success on that front.


And Spidey, if you thought IM2 sucked so bad----why have you been posting on here all this time?