Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[nimrod]

Heh, good point.



Also, what will be REALLY fun to watch is how fast it crashes and burns after the opening weekend. The last one has the biggest single day ever, but it didn't even break $300m. That's just pathetic.

Really. Pathetic?? You do realize Twilight's budget is (only)50 million.

I'm no fan of Twilight /(New Moon) but in terms of BO, pathetic is not a word to use.

Iron Man is being seriously compared to TDK in terms of BO. That's an achievement in itself.
That another superhero can come close to the BO of Spidey and Batman was not really expected by fans. But Iron Man is in the same league as them.

Iron Man is amazing. Nuff said.

 

[Anita18]

Really. Pathetic?? You do realize Twilight's budget is (only)50 million.

I'm no fan of Twilight /(New Moon) but in terms of BO, pathetic is not a word to use.

It's pathetic because it utterly crashed and burned after the first weekend. Sure it makes a lot of money for its budget, but slap "Twilight" onto anything and the fans will come running no matter how bad it is.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

yes this will piss people off and I don't care, a huge draw for TDK was not Batman, but the unfortunate passing of Heath Ledger, it was his last great performance and people went to see that as much or more than seeing Batman, sorry, but it has been a source of discussion with friends and family and all agree that played a huge part in the films success.

you're right, that will piss a lot of people off. Fortunately, those people are blind ass hats that don't mean a damn. I for one, agree with this whole heartedly. It's the SAME EXACT RULE that applies to the music business, when an artist passes, his work becomes MORE POPULAR. This is true for actors as well, so those of you who don't think so, well simply you're a moron. Most of the TDK's success can be attributed to Heath's passing (was he on the rise before hand, yes, and that only helped it out that much more). You take a popular actor, add the passing of popular actor with his FINAL movie, and you have........$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Milkman95]

Blind? Hilarious, MOST of TDK's success is attributed to it being a good film, NOT because of Heath's passing. Yes, it helped on opening weekend, and I will say Heath's passing created more buzz, but saying the film was successful MOSTLY because of that? NO. It carried to $1 Billion worldwide because it was a good film.

Gotta love jealous Marvel fanboys.

 

[spider-neil]

I wouldn't say heath's death was 'the' reason for TDK success but anyone who thinks it wasn't at least a factor is deluded. the nolan franchise went from 400m WW with batman begins to over 1B WW with TDK. IM2 isn't going to do over 1B, 'yeah, but BB was good AND TDK was good unlike IM2' okay, why didn't SM2 do over a billion?

 

[Doctor Jones]

I'm not surprised it didn't beat TDK's opening day. But it's still a great number and will no doubt make more than the first film opening weekend.

I also think it should do fine this month. It has the same situation it had in 2008.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Gotta love jealous Marvel fanboys.

gotta love people who make "assumptions" without facts

as if anyone here is a "jealous marvel fanboy"

and if that was directed toward me, sorry to dissapoint ya, I'm a fan of various company's, I don't take sides. If anything, I'm a bigger fan of D.C. anyway

so yea, you're way off. Nice try though

good luck walking blind

 

[Ironfan72]

Honestly, it amazes me when people take offense to truth, as I said, TDK was an ok movie, not great not the best of all time, nothing in the film was anything different than I had seen in a thousand batman cartoons. It was simply that there was a large group of people who went to see Heaths last performance, to say otherwise is neive and short sited.
I know many of my friends who went to the film said if not for his passing they would not have seen the film, they were not comicbook fans or even cared about Batman, it was Ledgers last performance, there was a morbid curiuosity there that people wanted to see his last performance, yes he made a great joker, but that said it wasn't enough to make TDK a success it turned out to be.
Of the friends, family and co-workers I spoke with about why they saw TDK, a hand full were DC fans and some said yeah Batman was a reason but again Heath's passing played in role in it.
Using the tired old Marvel fanboy jealously excuse is as always boring and narrow minded, and clearly living a fantasy world.

 

[drax]

Honestly, it amazes me when people take offense to truth, as I said, TDK was an ok movie, not great not the best of all time, nothing in the film was anything different than I had seen in a thousand batman cartoons. It was simply that there was a large group of people who went to see Heaths last performance, to say otherwise is neive and short sited.
I know many of my friends who went to the film said if not for his passing they would not have seen the film, they were not comicbook fans or even cared about Batman, it was Ledgers last performance, there was a morbid curiuosity there that people wanted to see his last performance, yes he made a great joker, but that said it wasn't enough to make TDK a success it turned out to be.
Of the friends, family and co-workers I spoke with about why they saw TDK, a hand full were DC fans and some said yeah Batman was a reason but again Heath's passing played in role in it.
Using the tired old Marvel fanboy jealously excuse is as always boring and narrow minded, and clearly living a fantasy world.

So true, it was also the same thing when Brandon Lee have passed away, before that, he was not really a big actor, some cool action movies time to time, now, lot of peoples see him like a legend with his morbid death during the crow.

Another recent post mortem success, there are Michael Jackson, I have always been a huge fan of him (specially during his career of 70's-late 80's area), but he has no more reputation since the 90's (before the trial too), he was no more popular (specially with the rumors around him etc...), but now since his death, everybody see him like a saint and his success is again really huge.

I think it's the same thing for TDK, there are of course a big influence from Ledger death, see the comparaison between BB and TDK about box-office, there are huge difference and I think their respective box-office talk for themselves.

 

[bapi]

Official estimate: 133.6

 

[hatebox]

Honestly, it amazes me when people take offense to truth, as I said, TDK was an ok movie, not great not the best of all time, nothing in the film was anything different than I had seen in a thousand batman cartoons. It was simply that there was a large group of people who went to see Heaths last performance, to say otherwise is neive and short sited.

People are comparing it to TDK on a BOX OFFICE thread because it's the most comparable blockbuster and many analyists were predicting IM2 would beat its OW. Enough with the moronic fanboy wars. It's happening on both sides.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

And Avatar only made money because of 3D AM I RITE ?

 

[JeetKuneDo]

you're right, that will piss a lot of people off. Fortunately, those people are blind ass hats that don't mean a damn. I for one, agree with this whole heartedly. It's the SAME EXACT RULE that applies to the music business, when an artist passes, his work becomes MORE POPULAR. This is true for actors as well, so those of you who don't think so, well simply you're a moron. Most of the TDK's success can be attributed to Heath's passing (was he on the rise before hand, yes, and that only helped it out that much more). You take a popular actor, add the passing of popular actor with his FINAL movie, and you have........$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Ledger's death was huge. E! network was in almost non-stop Ledger/TDK promotion mode for months before it was released. Just like a car wreck on the freeway, everyone had to stop to look. The "poor tortured artist" angle was there. Insinuations that playing the character of the Joker had somehow damaged Ledger. That was too delicious for people to resist.

But there is also the Joker angle. If you look at all the Batman movies....the ones with the Joker make a LOT more than the ones without the Joker. It's not even close. Batman really isn't that popular...the Joker is.

And of course, if you look at the movies that have exploded at the box office in recent times, you'll get a sense of the herd mentality that accompanies them. Avatar, Titanic, and TDK....anyone going to suggest they are really the three best movies of the last 20 years? I like the Cameron movies a lot...but I'm not fooling myself into believing they are that good. After a certain point, they became "events". "Everyone is going to see this...I have to go too". How many just went to see Avatar because they felt they "had to go"? Each one of those had a specific set of circumstances that led to a perception that it was a "must see".

 

[JeetKuneDo]

So true, it was also the same thing when Brandon Lee have passed away, before that, he was not really a big actor, some cool action movies time to time, now, lot of peoples see him like a legend with his morbid death during the crow.

Another recent post mortem success, there are Michael Jackson, I have always been a huge fan of him (specially during his career of 70's-late 80's area), but he has no more reputation since the 90's (before the trial too), he was no more popular (specially with the rumors around him etc...), but now since his death, everybody see him like a saint and his success is again really huge.

I think it's the same thing for TDK, there are of course a big influence from Ledger death, see the comparaison between BB and TDK about box-office, there are huge difference and I think their respective box-office talk for themselves.

Going back further...James Dean and Marilyn Monroe. I doubt either would be talked about very much today if not for the "tragic death at a young age" angle. Bruce Lee also benefited from this.

And you're right about MJ. Last year he didn't even make the top 100 on the Forbes earnings list...this year he jumped up to the top 5. Wonder how that happened?

 

[hatebox]

The Ledger death arguments are ridiculous. Factors that were far bigger in determining the film's success include:

1) Batman vs the Joker (this is patently obvious)
2) Excellent marketing combined with a perfect release date
3) Great reviews and word of mouth resulting in healthy drop offs - people who would never see a superhero film were seeing TDK
4) Goodwill from Batman Begins
5) People heard Ledger was really, really good. That's far more reason to see a film than him just dying. That's what makes a movie a billion dollars. Not imagined 'macabre curiosity'.

 

[Superhero 101]

Wow 133 million not bad i am sure it will easily make 300 domestically

 

[redfirebird2008]

Wow, my $170-175m prediction was way off. Damn.

 

[Anita18]

I know many of my friends who went to the film said if not for his passing they would not have seen the film, they were not comicbook fans or even cared about Batman, it was Ledgers last performance, there was a morbid curiuosity there that people wanted to see his last performance, yes he made a great joker, but that said it wasn't enough to make TDK a success it turned out to be.

Thing is that TDK was NOT Ledger's last role. His final completed role, yes, but Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus was the last movie where he appears, and they even billed his name in the trailers which TDK did not do. And how much did that movie make?

Bernie Mac's last movie made bupkiss at the box office too.

It wasn't JUST Ledger's death. Of course playing the TDK trailer ad nauseum in January 2008 certainly helped, as well as the Oscar buzz around Heath. But just the fact that he died was not enough to make it a phenomenon. Heck, I'd say it was mostly the Oscar buzz that helped most in regards to the bump. The death just made it more poetic.

Wow, my $170-175m prediction was way off. Damn.

You're not the only one, considering how many people are feeling burned at BOM or WoKJ.

But yeah, $170m was rather bold.

 

[drax]

Going back further...James Dean and Marilyn Monroe. I doubt either would be talked about very much today if not for the "tragic death at a young age" angle. Bruce Lee also benefited from this.

And you're right about MJ. Last year he didn't even make the top 100 on the Forbes earnings list...this year he jumped up to the top 5. Wonder how that happened?

Yes, sadly the death of stars is an huge marketing (I'm a really big fan of Bruce Lee too "JeetKuneDo"), these companies take lot of advantage about this situation, and logically, Warner have taken the opportunity to promote the Dark Knight with Ledger death, and it was a really big part of the success.

For the Dark Knight, there are also the fact that we don't have seen the Joker since the first Batman movie who have a huge reputation among the fans, with his death, it was another important point for the huge success of the movie, Joker is iconic, probably one of the most well know comics character, the tragic death of a young actor in the iconic last role, it's simply an important, if not the most important commercial aspect for this movie.

For Iron Man box office, I think his success is more important that the others superheroes movies, simply because, unlike the others popular franchise superheroes, nobody knew him before his movie.

Batman, the X-men, Spider-man, Superman, Hulk, each of this characters was really well-known in the pop culture (with TV show, cartoon etc...), but Iron Man, nobody know him, in France before this movie, nobody, except some comicbook fans, knew who he was or who was Tony Stark, in other hand, everybody know Batman and Spider-man.

So I think that Iron Man was the most successful because he was near nobody in term of popularity, but now he is maybe, after Spider-man, the most well-known Marvel character.

 

[Anita18]

Yes, sadly the death of stars is an huge marketing (I'm a really big fan of Bruce Lee too "JeetKuneDo"), these companies take lot of advantage about this situation, and logically, Warner have taken the opportunity to promote the Dark Knight with Ledger death, and it was a really big part of the success.

Show me one TDK trailer or TV spot where Ledger's name is billed. Show me one poster where his name is first billed. Good luck.

WB was smartly silent on NOT overtly marketing Ledger's name after his death. The entertainment news media did it for them 1000x over, so they didn't have to do anything.

I know that most companies would take ANY opportunity to hawk their wares, but acting like WB was gleeful that Ledger died and officially marketed the fact it was "LEDGER'S LAST MOVIE! OMG! DID WE MENTION IT WAS LEDGER'S LAST MOVIE?" is beyond the pale. They didn't do anything of the sort. It certainly happened, but it was beyond WB's control. They let the news media borrow footage from the trailers but that was it.

 

[spider-neil]

so heath's death had nothing to do with the success of TDK? nothing at all? wasn't even a factor? the movie would have made eactly the same numbers if ledger had lived? okay, fair enough.

 

[Anita18]

so heath's death had nothing to do with the success of TDK? nothing at all? wasn't even a factor? the movie would have made eactly the same numbers if ledger had lived? okay, fair enough.

Read my post a few posts up:

It wasn't JUST Ledger's death. Of course playing the TDK trailer ad nauseum in January 2008 certainly helped, as well as the Oscar buzz around Heath. But just the fact that he died was not enough to make it a phenomenon. Heck, I'd say it was mostly the Oscar buzz that helped most in regards to the bump. The death just made it more poetic.

If he had died and there was NO Oscar buzz, I don't think there would have been a bump. It was the combination of Oscar and death that made a bump, and it's hard to say how much that "tribute" bump was. I heard a couple of strangers talking about TDK shortly after it was released and one of them had no idea Ledger was in it the first time he went to go see it.

Not everyone watches entertainment news shows, you know. Sometimes you want to see something because it's cool, and the trailers and TV spots certainly made it look cool. It was a combination of things, as it usually is.

 

[S.A.A.D.]

Worldwide: $327,600,000

Domestic: $133,600,000
Foreign: $194,000,000

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman2.htm

 

[rashad]

Nice. Should finish around 700-800M WW.

 

[spider-neil]

Worldwide: $327,600,000

Domestic: $133,600,000
Foreign: $194,000,000

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman2.htm

pretty darn impressive