Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[kedrell]

SM3 was 10M, but with more venues open. IM1 did about 3.5M

 

[Tony Stark]

Yeah it was dumb of Paramount to not open more venues, especially when the film was tracking that well. Part of the problem may have been shifting weeks to the 7th, the film was originally supposed to open WW on the 30th, but when Chronicles of Narnia moved to november Iron Man 2 moved up a week.

 

[Anita18]

Yeah it was dumb of Paramount to not open more venues, especially when the film was tracking that well. Part of the problem may have been shifting weeks to the 7th, the film was originally supposed to open WW on the 30th, but when Chronicles of Narnia moved to november Iron Man 2 moved up a week.

Well HP5 managed more in midnights with less theaters, so I just don't think the demand was there.

I think Paramount guessed right. No use in opening more theaters if the demand isn't there. Although it wasn't the smartest of them to open it in the middle of many students' finals.

 

[hatebox]

Is the OW record still expected for this film? The Deadline crew didn't really give any analysis of the midnight numbers. Obviously the screencount was less than it will be now but even TDK scored over $18m on its first midnight. [nb. TDK is only being used as a numerical reference. This is not to start a flame war]

 

[rashad]

7.5 mill for midnight is a good number for this time of year. Star Trek last year only opened with 4 million and they had several Thursday showings. I'm not sure what Spider-man 3 did in midnight showings.

1) New Moon - 26.7 11/20/09
2) HP6 - 22.2M 7/15/09
3) TDK - 18.5M midnights 7/18/08
4) Sith - 16.9M midnights 5/19/05
5) TF2 - ROTF - 16.8M 6/24/09
6) OOTP - 12M midnights 7/11/07
7) SM3 - 10M midnights 5/4/07
8 DMC- 9M midnights 7/7/06
9) LOTR - ROTK - 8M 12/18/03
10)SM1 - 7m 5/3/02
10)Twilight - 7m 11/21/08
10)TPM - 7M 5/19/99
13)GoF - 6m 11/18/05
13)AOTC - 6m 5/16/02
15)X3 - 5.9M midnights 5/2/03
16)Wolverine - 5M midnights. 5/1/09
17)Watchmen - 4.55M midnights. 3/6/09
18 FOTR - 4m 12/19/01
18 TTT - 4m 12/18/02
20)Terminator Salvation - 3M 5/21/09

 

[Tony Stark]

1) New Moon - 26.7 11/20/09
2) HP6 - 22.2M 7/15/09
3) TDK - 18.5M midnights 7/18/08
4) Sith - 16.9M midnights 5/19/05
5) TF2 - ROTF - 16.8M 6/24/09
6) OOTP - 12M midnights 7/11/07
7) SM3 - 10M midnights 5/4/07
8 DMC- 9M midnights 7/7/06
9) LOTR - ROTK - 8M 12/18/03
10)SM1 - 7m 5/3/02
10)Twilight - 7m 11/21/08
10)TPM - 7M 5/19/99
13)GoF - 6m 11/18/05
13)AOTC - 6m 5/16/02
15)X3 - 5.9M midnights 5/2/03
16)Wolverine - 5M midnights. 5/1/09
17)Watchmen - 4.55M midnights. 3/6/09
18 FOTR - 4m 12/19/01
18 TTT - 4m 12/18/02
20)Terminator Salvation - 3M 5/21/09

Did you read what I said? I said 7.5 is a good opening "for this time of year". Basically only Spider-man 3 topped it in that respect, and I think we all agree Paramount should have had more screens.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well HP5 managed more in midnights with less theaters, so I just don't think the demand was there.

I think Paramount guessed right. No use in opening more theaters if the demand isn't there. Although it wasn't the smartest of them to open it in the middle of many students' finals.

I dont' know what the screens were based on what SM3's number of screens. For a first week of May opening, this was probably about expected, maybe a little less.

I don't know how many of the midnight showings were in IMAX which is probably going to be a high demand draw this weekend.

If you look as any buisness would which is year over year, this is a boost from the same weekend last year, of 3.5 million, and as I mentioned Star Trek had several Thursday showings, not just midnight.

 

[Anita18]

Is the OW record still expected for this film? The Deadline crew didn't really give any analysis of the midnight numbers. Obviously the screencount was less than it will be now but even TDK scored over $18m on its first midnight. [nb. TDK is only being used as a numerical reference. This is not to start a flame war]

They're still not giving a lot of analysis, but updated numbers on the site show a preliminary $55m OD. I think it's lower than what a lot of people expected, but it's not bad...

 

[Tony Stark]

They're still not giving a lot of analysis, but updated numbers on the site show a preliminary $55m OD. I think it's lower than what a lot of people expected, but it's not bad...

That will probably put it in the top 4 or 5 opening weekends probably above DMC. Which unfortunately means that the film that will break TDK's record will be Eclipse, ugh!

At least I hope IM2 finishes above New Moon. We'll see...

 

[FaT_tONle]

They needed an extra 10 mill more from midnight. Good news I'll say, I think most people are skipping Robin Hood in theatres. Persia looks really meh to people going by those reactions to the trailer, like a Narnia movie in the summer (we know how that turned out). So either the kids are saving their allowances and parents are cheap, or people will keep watching IM2 until what, Shrek 4 or Toy Story 3? Certainly not if they are looking for live action. A-team looks decent but still a month away.

 

[Tony Stark]

Well, like I said earlier, you really have to look at these numbers year over year. Last year Star Trek, which got rave reviews opened at 75 mil, which was down 25% from the previous year. So if the numbers listed above are correct, we're looking at 135-145, or thereabout, so you're talking a huge boost over this same weekend last year.

We'll get the final numbers tomorrow, but even if it's 55 million that's excellent, and it will probably cross the 400 mil mark, or better, depending on how Robin Hood and Shrek 4 go.

 

[Superhero 101]

I just want it to make 400 million domestic

 

[TheVileOne]

It's got a shot. No one is going to see that DOA Robin Hood movie next week.

I think it easily breaks $100 million this weekend alone. That will already put it at like $250 million worldwide in like 2 weekends.

 

[redfirebird2008]

It should cruise past $400m domestic. It's getting good word of mouth.

 

[hatebox]

If it is then Americans would seem to like it a lot more than Europeans. I'm not saying that to be funny, just an observation.

 

[redfirebird2008]

If it is then Americans would seem to like it a lot more than Europeans. I'm not saying that to be funny, just an observation.

That's pretty much the superhero box office rule. Spider-Man is the only one that has broken the mold.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Dang, the estimate went from $55m down to $52m.

 

[hatebox]

It'll have to have a killer Saturday to avoid being quite a bit lower than expectations - Sundays always have a bigger drop. I wonder if this has anything to do with the critical reaction? I mean, it could have made a $10m or so difference ...

 

[redfirebird2008]

It'll have to have a killer Saturday to avoid being quite a bit lower than expectations - Sundays always have a bigger drop. I wonder if this has anything to do with the critical reaction? I mean, it could have made a $10m or so difference ...

Frankly, I think the marketing wasn't as good as it could have been. I still haven't seen the movie yet, but the trailers just weren't that great. They weren't "holy crap" awesome like SM3 and TDK's trailers. The first Iron Man had a far stronger trailer IMHO.

But to keep this in perspective, if it makes around $135m this weekend it will have sold roughly 25% more tickets than IM1 did over its opening weekend (including the Thursday previews). That's a pretty sweet increase coming from a movie that already made a big opening to begin with. That being said, the WOM is going to need to be pretty good to make what I was expecting ($425ish million).

 

[hatebox]

Reflecting on the $7.5m midnight showing, Boxofficemojo noted that the marketing for IM2 did 'rest on its laurels' a bit - rather than convey the direction of the story or highlight the antagonists they thought the trailers relied a bit too much on goodwill from the first one, and the RDJ factor. Can't really blame Paramount too mcuh for that move, but I see the concern.

Time will tell..

 

[FaT_tONle]

Dang, the estimate went from $55m down to $52m.

Anyone somehow hoping that Iron Man 2 would flop at the box office this weekend, give up-- Friday's early numbers are in, and it's a certified hit. But anyone rooting for The Dark Knight to hang on to its opening-weekend box office record, you're a winner. Deadline Hollywood is projecting that, based on the estimated $52 million Iron Man 2 pulled in last night, it will boast a $130 million or so opening weekend, well below The Dark Knight's $158 million record.

It's also worth noting that Iron Man 2 had the largest release of any in history, appearing at 4,308 theaters around the country. You can practically hear Paramount regretting that they didn't just slap on the thing and go ahead and claim the crown-- though hopefully louder are all the fans eternally grateful they didn't have to wear glasses for this one. Iron Man 2's opening weekend will best Iron Man's $102 million by a whole lot, but as we've discussed before, the rules are different for sequels. It's a little awkward that many people, including Marvel President Kevin Feige, were openly hoping to snag the record, but hey, $130 million will help him keep a roof over his head, so who's complaining.

If you're curious, it looks like Nightmare on Elm Street will be at #2 with less than 10% of Iron Man 2's gross. We'll have lots more on the weekend box office in our wrap-up on Sunday night.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Iron...s-With-130-Million-Opening-Weekend-18489.html

It's not the impressive IMO. Basically a Revenge of the Sith number five years later. And the 3 day is expected to be less than DMC and Twilight. I think its the reception and less the marketing. People on the cusp weren't exactly gushing over it.

 

[Tony Stark]

I still think it will pull 135, or possibly 140. 130 million puts it into the top 5 openings all time, so there's really nothing to complain about.

I thought it could best 150 million, but it will be the 2nd largest May opening.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's not the impressive IMO. Basically a Revenge of the Sith number five years later. And the 3 day is expected to be less than DMC and Twilight. I think its the reception and less the marketing. People on the cusp weren't exactly gushing over it.

Um, it's 22 million more than Sith. Maybe adjusted for inflation, but it's a top 5 opening and you're saying it's not impressive?

 

[FaT_tONle]

Can't imagine what Twilight 3 will do in the middle of the summer. I am not sure what the fan reception was to the last film or what they think of the book, but it could easily pull in 160 for the fact that it is summer alone. As for IM, once we see the daily's and if there is only a 50-55% drop next week, it will be fine.

Um, it's 22 million more than Sith. Maybe adjusted for inflation, but it's a top 5 opening and you're saying it's not impressive?

I was talking about opening day, which was around 50 million. Obviously the fanbase ain't as large as Star Wars but just regarding opening day.

 

[hatebox]

Um, it's 22 million more than Sith. Maybe adjusted for inflation, but it's a top 5 opening and you're saying it's not impressive?

It's all about expectations though. Paramount, and some analyists, will be slightly disappointed if the figure holds.