Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[TheVileOne]

It's at close to $160 million now before the second weekend. So it's pretty much guaranteed to break $200 million next weekend. It should do a solid Memorial Day as well which always gives movies a boost at the BO.

 

[rashad]

That much is obvious.

 

[TheVileOne]

I mean that I think $400 million domestic is not outside the realm of possibility.

Why? The competition coming up is weak as **** and there's a holiday weekend coming up.

Just remember, Iron man outgrossed Indy 4 at domestic box office .

 

[kedrell]

It'll fall in the $350-400M range domestic. I'm splitting the difference and guessing $375M but I hope for $400M. It's at $159M so far as of yesterday. It also(since Tuesday) has been making $200-400K more everyday than SM3's same weekdays and SM3 made $58.1M on it's 2nd weekend. I don't see why IM2 doesn't have a shot at a $60M weekend for a 53.1% drop...which is damn decent. That would put it at around $219-220M after this weekend. SM3 was at $240M at the same time but I think IM2 is going to continue to catch up pretty quickly, despite opening to $23M less. I give it 2 weeks from now and it will have out paced SM3 completely.

 

[kedrell]

The main thing SM3 has in it's favor that IM2 doesn't was that on it's 2nd weekend the #2 movie behind it didn't even crack $10M. RH is guaranteed to surpass that at least, probably by 3 times.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I mean that I think $400 million domestic is not outside the realm of possibility.

Why? The competition coming up is weak as **** and there's a holiday weekend coming up.

Just remember, Iron man outgrossed Indy 4 at domestic box office .

I have a feeling IM2 could stay at #1 until Shrek 4 opens.

 

[rashad]

Early numbers $16M Friday
Estimated Weekend: IM2 - 53M Robin Hood - 40M
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

About what I estimated a few pages back.

 

[TheVileOne]

We'll see. I'll wait until Sunday or Monday. Sometimes those estimates are wrong as last weekend proves since they overestimated Iron man 2's opening weekend.

 

[hatebox]

If it gets $53m that's a 59% drop - not a massive amount but more than the studio would have hoped for. I personally thought it would be no more than 55%. These are of course very early estimates so we'll see.

If Robin Hood gets as much as $40m which Deadline suggests I'll be surprised. Can't believe its budget was $225m - talk about relying on the international market.

 

[chiefchirpa]

If Robin Hood gets as much as $40m which Deadline suggests I'll be surprised. Can't believe its budget was $225m - talk about relying on the international market.

225m? That's just crazy. If the subject material is original it might gain slightly more interest. But it's Robin Hood. It's been done to death in past cinema.

Avengers should be 250m if Robbie H takes 225m to make.

 

[kedrell]

16M? Yep, like I said in my last post, RH took a bite out of the friday number. I thought it would stay ahead of SM3 otherwise. I do expect that Friday will be the day hardest hit and IM2's saturday increase will likely seem higher than expected with RH's Saturday dropping off. I think Friday will end up being RH's largest single day. I thought IM2 could do 18M or so at best with a 25-26M Saturday. I still think a 24-25M Saturday is likely for IM2 with a 13M Saturday for RH. But $60M hopes are now likely gone for IM2's 2nd weekend, but hopefully it can stay above $55M.

 

[Doctor Jones]

I still see IM2 to do well out of all of this. It could dwindle in the last part of this month but will still survive I think.

I really want POP to do well, so I'm not worried about this film breaking even.

 

[FaT_tONle]

These legs are nowhere near as good as the first one. Should still outgross IM, but not by much. Not to be a party pooper, but it just seems the WOM and reviews are cutting its business well short of the lofty expectations they had. Shrek 4 should still be huge, because its 3-D. PoP is a wild card although I can't expect huge numbers there.

 

[Mr. Earle]

So how is IM2 doing? How much money did it make in its first weekend and where does that put it in comparison to other comic book movies?

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

I'd like to know the concensus as well, how's it doing compared to last week and the first installment around this time as well as over all. Is it looking like it's going to stay another couple of weeks, another month? ............

 

[kedrell]

It's only behind TDK & SM3 at this point. It'll outgross SM3 I'm pretty confident(at least domestic) and come in probably around SM2 numbers, give or take 10-15M or so. 3rd or 4th highest grossing superhero movie of all time, most likely. Unadjusted, of course.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I hope the studio doesn't overestimate this weekend by 5.5mil. Anyway that drop looks okay to me but unless the movie goes up huge on saturday I seriously doubt that it has a shot at 400mil. Right now, I'm thinking 345 to 365mil. It's international numbers aren't all that special so it should do less overseas.

 

[superion]

Damn I wanted this to do at least as well as the other metal movie Transformers 2. I can't believe it will lose out to that crap movie.

 

[hatebox]

I hope the studio doesn't overestimate this weekend by 5.5mil.

With less numbers they can usually be more accurate, and I suspect the studio will have learnt its lesson from last week.

Still, if the figure is anything under $51m that'll be more than a 60% drop, which is quite a bit.

 

[kedrell]

There's no way it'll be under 51M. I have no doubt of that.

 

[ddddeeee]

Friday was overestimated, now Hollywood Reporter claims it's a 14M Friday. This is dropping a good bit over 60% and it won't pass SM3.

 

[FaT_tONle]

If Iron Man can't floor it overseas, can't imagine how bad Cap is going to do.

 

[hatebox]

Can't see Captain America being overly popular in Europe or elsewhere - we rarely love superhero films as it is!

 

[hatebox]

Friday was overestimated, now Hollywood Reporter claims it's a 14M Friday. This is dropping a good bit over 60% and it won't pass SM3.

Link? Their article says 'roughly' $15m from what I can see.

 

[ddddeeee]

Link? Their article says 'roughly' $15m from what I can see.

http://hollywoodinsider.ew.com/2010/05/15/box-office-update-iron-man-2-robin-hood-friday/