Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[hatebox]

Well, that's EW rather than the HW, but ok.

 

[kedrell]

I think friday's number isn't indicative of the whole weekend in this case. RH probably took it's biggest chunk out of IM2's gross on that day.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Well this blows, I wanted it to make at least $1 more than the f'n Transformers 2 movie.

 

[Blade X]

Damn I wanted this to do at least as well as the other metal movie Transformers 2. I can't believe it will lose out to that crap movie.

I feel your pain.

That all being said, as crappy as TRANSFORMERS:ROTF was, it had the one thing that IM2 was lacking, lot's of cool and lengthy fight/action scenes. I strongly believe that if IM2 had a lot more (and lengthy) fight/action scenes this movie might have easily out grossed TF:ROTF.

 

[rashad]

BOM Friday Estimate $15,075,000

 

[Anita18]

If Robin Hood gets as much as $40m which Deadline suggests I'll be surprised. Can't believe its budget was $225m - talk about relying on the international market.

Bwuh?

BOM Actuals $15,075,000

Interesting - they usually come up with actuals the Monday after.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I feel your pain.

That all being said, as crappy as TRANSFORMERS:ROTF was, it had the one thing that IM2 was lacking, lot's of cool and lengthy fight/action scenes. I strongly believe that if IM2 had a lot more (and lengthy) fight/action scenes this movie might have easily out grossed TF:ROTF.

You know what? i think that's actually very indicative of the foreign BO. If you think about it spider-man 3 is the top grossing superhero movie in pure overseas grosses i mean despite being way behind in critical success it made more than TDK or Iron Man 1 or any of the other spider mans.

It had a lot of action.

 

[rashad]

Scratch that. I meant to put estimate instead of actuals.. lol

 

[topdog1]

Well this blows, I wanted it to make at least $1 more than the f'n Transformers 2 movie.

I was going to spend $10 on dinner tonight but instead, I'm going hungry to pad IM2 numbers. I'd rather buy another ticket then see Robin Hood win this race and eat.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Yeah, I'm going again tomorrow to see the movie again.

 

[hatebox]

You know what? i think that's actually very indicative of the foreign BO. If you think about it spider-man 3 is the top grossing superhero movie in pure overseas grosses i mean despite being way behind in critical success it made more than TDK or Iron Man 1 or any of the other spider mans.

It had a lot of action.

Obviously the international market is made up of many, many countries so it's wrong to generalize, but my theory is it simply takes longer for franchises and brands to take hold out there, it's almost like they're a sequel/installment behind the US. But when they do take hold they're even more critic and word-of-mouth proof. I wouldn't be surprised if the TDK sequel makes as much internationally as TDK did (although I obviously hope it's a good film anyway).

 

[hatebox]

I was going to spend $10 on dinner tonight but instead, I'm going hungry to pad IM2 numbers. I'd rather buy another ticket then see Robin Hood win this race and eat.

Shoulda just eaten - Robin Hood wouldn't have won anyway.

 

[Tony Stark]

It will be interesting to see the rest of the numbers. comic book movies are usually front loaded, but if it ends up being 52, that will be under 60%, barely.

Personally, I'm wondering if Paramount is lowballing the estimates considering what happened last weekend. I would not be suprised if this ends up being the 55M weekend they suspected.

As for Robin Hood, I'm not convinced until tomorrow. Never underestimate the "Renessaince Faire" factor. That is people who will go see anything with a medevil theme on opening night, just so they can dress up in their tights and lederhosen.

If it does make 40 million, apparently crap reviews don't mean anything for box office take.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

well that's a complete shocker, I definitley was not expecting this type of reception for this particular movie. Go back in time and ask me last year or earlier this year, and I would've sworn it was gonna be the biggest superhero film next to TDK.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Obviously the international market is made up of many, many countries so it's wrong to generalize, but my theory is it simply takes longer for franchises and brands to take hold out there, it's almost like they're a sequel/installment behind the US. But when they do take hold they're even more critic and word-of-mouth proof. I wouldn't be surprised if the TDK sequel makes as much internationally as TDK did (although I obviously hope it's a good film anyway).

I think its a couple things. Lack of an established fan base. Comic books and super-heroes mainly are not as popular overseas i believe, another things may be the language barrier. Films with simpler plot line and dialogue are easier to translate to other languages while heavy action needs no translation (Take avatar's success for example).

I gotta believe it can't be too easy to accurately capture all of tony starks quips in another language.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Dropping 59% percent is not terrible, but also not good. I agree, 400 mil domestic is a longshot. However, I think that was asking a lot of it in the first place. I still think this has to go down as a success for Marvel, even if it craps out around 350mil.

As for the point on Captain America, I don't think we can compare Cap's BO to IM's. They have different appeal, style, Cap's not a sequel, and come out at different points in the year. Thor is more similar in comparison due to the weekend date, but still not a good comparison (given that is not a sequel and a different style entirely).

As far as international numbers go, really only the Spidey films and TDK have been huge internationally. Most comic films don't do that well overseas. Superheroes are a primarily American phenomenon.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I hope the studio doesn't overestimate this weekend by 5.5mil. Anyway that drop looks okay to me but unless the movie goes up huge on saturday I seriously doubt that it has a shot at 400mil. Right now, I'm thinking 345 to 365mil. It's international numbers aren't all that special so it should do less overseas.

What was I thinking with this post?

The first one did a 14.9mil friday and this has only done 15.1mil. Even if it had done that 16mil it was still going to drop pretty hard and considering it didn't open too much higher than the first one. I'd say these aren't okay numbers. They aren't Wolverine or X3 style numbers but they are pretty disappointing.

I'm thinking 52mil right now for a slightly under 60percent drop. It really is all going to depend on the saturday numbers so it could do better than I'm thinking but right now I wouldn't be surprised if it went under 50mil. I personally don't think that the WOM on this movie is very good but we'll have wait for the third weekend to be sure.

I now predict that the movie ends with about 315 to 340mil.

 

[FaT_tONle]

You know what... **** TF2 and **** 400 million. It's a number... nothing more. We'll get over it. If anything it keeps Marvel hungry. If they continue to be conservative and not take chances, settle for mediocrity or what has worked in the past, their numbers will level off. Easy money should no longer apply to CB movies. People are well past that. Go out there and earn it.

 

[rashad]

What was I thinking with this post?

The first one did a 14.9mil friday and this has only done 15.1mil. Even if it had done that 16mil it was still going to drop pretty hard and considering it didn't open too much higher than the first one. I'd say these aren't okay numbers. They aren't Wolverine or X3 style numbers but they are pretty disappointing.

I'm thinking 52mil right now for a slightly under 60percent drop. It really is all going to depend on the saturday numbers so it could do better than I'm thinking but right now I wouldn't be surprised if it went under 50mil. I personally don't think that the WOM on this movie is very good but we'll have wait for the third weekend to be sure.

I now predict that the movie ends with about 315 to 340mil.

It loses IMAX theaters after this weekend too.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I just hope that Captain America and Thor are better than Iron Man 2 and I hope that they are not just a build up to the Avengers movie.

If Iron Man 2 was a great movie to me and was doing these numbers I'd mostly only care about me loving the film. Marvel has only had one good movie out of three as far as I'm concerned and that is not a good track record...To be fair I've only liked the Nolan Batman movies and Watchmen out of all the big DC/WB comicbook movies so their track record is even worse IMHO. I realize that I'm in the minority regarding that opinion but whocares?

It loses IMAX theaters after this weekend too.

Thats going to hurt it too. I think that it will make more but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it did less than the first. If it stays above 300mil thats not going to be awful or anything but I expected better considering the first movie didn't make 400mil.

 

[Anita18]

I just hope that Captain America and Thor are better than Iron Man 2 and I hope that they are not just a build up to the Avengers movie.

Something tells me Captain America won't do too hot overseas....

 

[rashad]

Deadline Hollywood Estimates.
Friday $15.2M (-70%), Saturday $21M, Weekend $49M, Cume $208.5M

 

[hatebox]

If it's $49m that's a 62% drop, which is bordering on 'quite a steep drop' territory. Marvel will definitely be disappointed if this movie doesn't make more than the first domestically, IMO.

 

[jmc]

^ Surely that won't happen.

 

[hatebox]

It's unlikely, but it depends on future drops. If this weekend estimate holds it'll be $24m ahead of where its predecessor was at the same point, but if the drops remain near the 60% range that could even out.

I still expect it to make more, but not a lot more it seems. At this rate if it cracks $350m I'll be surprised.