Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Spider-Fan]

I just looked it up...Iron Man 2 has:

Domestic - $212mil
Foreign - $216mil

WW - $428mil

Here are Iron Man's totals:

Domestic - $318mil
Foreign - $267

WW - $585mil

That puts IM2:

Behind $106mil Domestic
Behind $49mil Foreign

So in total:

Behind $157 mil WW

That is really not that far behind, and it should be able to outperform IM1 in all areas. This is far from a failure. But to be fair, I'll list the production budgets (according to Box Office Mojo):

Iron Man - $140mil
Iron Man 2 - $200mil

Even with a $60mil difference in budget, IM2 is not doing half bad. Especially considering Iron Man was not one of the most popular heroes prior to the first film.

 

[TheVileOne]

Fans just like to get in the doom and gloom and just overreact in general.

The movie didn't surpass TDK or Avatar, uh oh, you know what that means?

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[Mr. Earle]

-This movie contrary to what you all are saying is performing very well. Yes it's true. Did it underperform under some expectations? Yes it probably did. But when a sequel comes out people's expectations are always high and overrated. Look at Spider-man 2. Even though the movie was freaking awesome, highly rated and reviewed and people felt it was better than Spider-man still did less than the first movie domestic and overseas. Than you had Spider-man 3 which wasn't as good of a movie, opened huge, and ended up doing less than 1 and 2 domestic but made more than both worldwide.

Why the hell did SM3 do so well and IM2 is struggling?

 

[TheVileOne]

Iron Man 2 ain't struggling though. That's the point I'm making.

 

[Crook]

Iron Man 2 ain't struggling though. That's the point I'm making.

Hyperbole is being thrown from both sides. It's far from a failure, but no one was expecting it to compete with TDK/Avatar either. But with all the hype and reception garnered from the first film, we sure as hell expected it to do significantly better than IM1.

Even excluding BO from all this, IM2 didn't have the same glowing praise that both the X-Men and Spidey sequels got. Can't we at least expect that much?

Again, IM2 is nowhere near a disappointment. But it's most definitely underperforming realistic expectations the fanbase had.

 

[Tony Stark]

Hyperbole is being thrown from both sides. It's far from a failure, but no one was expecting it to compete with TDK/Avatar either. But with all the hype and reception garnered from the first film, we sure as hell expected it to do significantly better than IM1.

Even excluding BO from all this, IM2 didn't have the same glowing praise that both the X-Men and Spidey sequels got. Can't we at least expect that much?

Again, IM2 is nowhere near a disappointment. But it's most definitely underperforming realistic expectations the fanbase had.

Well I know it's been stated before, but IM1 is just a much better movie than SM1 or Xmen1 or even Batman Begins. I think some of the dissapointment is that some felt it didn't have the quantum leap in the second movie that those other movies had over their first installments.

But part of the negative reaction in the media I think is overstated. The movie received much more positive praise than Spider-man 3, also it's RT rating among top critics was above other movies like Batman Begins.

What's funny is that some are expressing that the box office performance is somehow tied to how good the movie is. Well I've said this before and it's fallen on deaf ears, but Summer 2008 was pre-recession.

You look at last summer, and there was really only one box office smash, and that was TF2, the next closest was Harry Potter which only made 302 million despite a big opening and having the same starting weekend as the Dark Knight the year before.

Yes Avatar was a huge smash hit, but that is a movie that deserves it's own catagory, and you can't possibly predict, but I believe boxoffice for 2009 was way down over 2008, especially the summer.

Depending on how Prince of Persia does, I think 2010 could be down over 2009. I'm drawing a blank at the moment, but if Shrek 4 doesn't make 400 million, which I think likely, I don't know that there will be a 400 million dollar movie this summer. Considering New Moon had a 70% drop in week two, I'm not expecting Eclipse to do that, no matter how big it opens.

 

[Figs]

Why the hell did SM3 do so well and IM2 is struggling?

My guess is because it came after two well recieved films by the general audience. If IM2's numbers keep going up and ends up surpassing the first films BO(which I think it will, easily)that will show that a lot of the general audience likes it just as much as the first if not more possibly. I think it's final BO numbers will show that people will be excited for a third.

You also forget Mr. Earl, although IM is now in the publics eye after the first film introduced him, Spider-Man has been a worldwide pop culture icon along with Superman and Batman, those are the big three. It's the popularity factor being a factor I believe.

I also don't find IM2 to be struggling. Yeah it's dropoff was a bit much for only being on it's second weekend but I think it will keep chugging along pretty well and will make some damn good money in the end.

 

[Crook]

Well I know it's been stated before, but IM1 is just a much better movie than SM1 or Xmen1 or even Batman Begins. I think some of the dissapointment is that some felt it didn't have the quantum leap in the second movie that those other movies had over their first installments.

If you're implying that because the first movie was so good that it had a distinct disadvantage with the sequels than the other franchises, I'm not particularly buying it. One of the biggest complaints is that IM2 was worse than the first, not that it didn't exceed it by a great amount.

Plus, BB is widely considered to be one of the greatest comic book films of all time. It was topping many lists, that is up until TDK came along and snatched the throne. So it's absolutely possible to surpass a great movie. Not saying it's easy, but it's doable.

But part of the negative reaction in the media I think is overstated. The movie received much more positive praise than Spider-man 3, also it's RT rating among top critics was above other movies like Batman Begins.

Not much of a barometer in the general reception of the film. This is Superman Returns:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/superman_returns/?critic=creamcrop

Beat both IM2 and BB. Where does that film fall amongst the fanboy community's ladder of superhero films, again?

What's funny is that some are expressing that the box office performance is somehow tied to how good the movie is. Well I've said this before and it's fallen on deaf ears, but Summer 2008 was pre-recession.

You look at last summer, and there was really only one box office smash, and that was TF2, the next closest was Harry Potter which only made 302 million despite a big opening and having the same starting weekend as the Dark Knight the year before.

Yes Avatar was a huge smash hit, but that is a movie that deserves it's own catagory, and you can't possibly predict, but I believe boxoffice for 2009 was way down over 2008, especially the summer.

It's fallen on deaf ears because it's been proven time and time again that Hollywood is bulletproof from recessions. Remember that little thing called the Great Depression? It actually helped Hollywood and spawned a golden age of films.

But hey, that was a long time ago. So let's look at 2009. It topped 2008, and was Hollywood's biggest year since 2002:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/business/21hollywood.html?_r=1
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B901X20091210

Let's stop making excuses here. This isn't even remotely a credible argument.

 

[chiefchirpa]

I don't know if you guys realize but Iron Man actually has a middling size fanbase. The comic Tony Stark is pretty much despised by comic readers. Even Green Lantern has more fans than Iron Man. Comparing Iron Man with Batman or Spider-Man is not in any sane playbook.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I hate people who bring up the recession when it comes to box office. People see more movies during recessions actually!

Anyways i'm a bit surprised by some of the negative word of mouth this film has had just based on people i've talked to compared to the first. I don't know if the legs will be great for this film.

 

[TheVileOne]

Hyperbole is being thrown from both sides. It's far from a failure, but no one was expecting it to compete with TDK/Avatar either. But with all the hype and reception garnered from the first film, we sure as hell expected it to do significantly better than IM1.

Umm . . . it is doing significantly better than Iron Man. The results thus far prove it. It's going to soon overtake the overseas BO for Iron Man easily.

Even excluding BO from all this, IM2 didn't have the same glowing praise that both the X-Men and Spidey sequels got. Can't we at least expect that much?

Iron Man was very popular and set a very high bar for the franchise in the eyes of fans and critics. I mean more often than not sequels are perceived as not as good as the original.

Spidey 2 still didn't outperform Spider-man at the BO though so I mean . . . pick and choose your poison. People need to stop pretending at picking and choosing certain things instead of looking at the WHOLE ENTIRE PICTURE.

Again, IM2 is nowhere near a disappointment. But it's most definitely underperforming realistic expectations the fanbase had.

Purely opinion. I don't know how realistic some of those expectations are/were.

 

[hatebox]

My box office expectations were based on it being a really, really well liked film thus ensuring a domestic take of $400m because it had so little competition. The problem is the reception hasn't reached those heights, so the box office has been decent rather than spectacular.

But again, I'm not 'worried' about it, I just find box office interesting to talk about.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Well I know it's been stated before, but IM1 is just a much better movie than SM1 or Xmen1 or even Batman Begins. I think some of the dissapointment is that some felt it didn't have the quantum leap in the second movie that those other movies had over their first installments.

Iron Man had the same problems as Batman Begins (3rd act) and it follows the same origin formula laid out by the great Superman the movie. Its not "much" better than any of them.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Iron Man > BB

Infact, Iron Man is "much" better than ALL OF THEM..............

TONY STARK BUILT THIS...IN A CAVE...WITH A BOX OF SCRAPS!!!!!


and that's why, nice day

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Iron Man > BB

Infact, Iron Man is "much" better than ALL OF THEM..............

TONY STARK BUILT THIS...IN A CAVE...WITH A BOX OF SCRAPS!!!!!


and that's why, nice day

Revelatory insight. You've convinced me.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I don't buy the argument that IM2's expectations were too high because IM1 was so great. I don't feel IM1 was significantly better than either BB or SM1, and the sequels are clearly better. I would still call S:TM the best origin film of all-time.

As I was saying in another thread, I really enjoyed IM2, and I don't feel IM1 was that much better. IM1 benefitted more from having to do less in the film than IM2 had to, but both films are similarly enjoyable and I loved them both.

As far as BO, I don't think IM2 is performing badly. I think for a character that is not in the big 3, it is performing very nicely. It is going to outperform IM1 internationally easily, and overtake it domestically. Fan expectations for IM2 were way too high in regard to BO. Marvel probably did expect bigger numbers, but I don't think they thought IM2 could beat TF2 domestically or TDK's opening. They went for both numbers to maximize BO, but I don't think they actually thought it would be bigger. If they did, they were crazy. I could have told you it wasn't beating TDK or TF2.

 

[Mr. Earle]

Iron Man 2 ain't struggling though. That's the point I'm making.

I didnt mean its doing bad, just a bit underwhelming.

IM1 is just a much better movie than SM1 or Xmen1 or even Batman Begins.

My guess is because it came after two well recieved films by the general audience. If IM2's numbers keep going up and ends up surpassing the first films BO(which I think it will, easily)that will show that a lot of the general audience likes it just as much as the first if not more possibly. I think it's final BO numbers will show that people will be excited for a third.

You also forget Mr. Earl, although IM is now in the publics eye after the first film introduced him, Spider-Man has been a worldwide pop culture icon along with Superman and Batman, those are the big three. It's the popularity factor being a factor I believe.

I also don't find IM2 to be struggling. Yeah it's dropoff was a bit much for only being on it's second weekend but I think it will keep chugging along pretty well and will make some damn good money in the end.

Thanks!

 

[FaT_tONle]

People just expect a proportional rise. Since the budget is around 200 and since its a sequel to a widely popular movie, it's got to make like 200 million more than its predecessor overall. If it returns the same profit (maybe the overseas will be a bit better but still) as the first, for a character that was supposedly on the rise in popularity, it indicates that you are leveling off and plateauing already, which is never a good sign. If this ends up grossing 750 then it's fine, but if it finishes in the 650 range, that's a bit short.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

IM2 needs at least 500 million to break even. It cost 200 million to produce and at least 50 million to market and the studio would only get half of the 500 million gross.

I don't think the studio will be satisfied unless it breaks 600 million worldwide.

 

[danoyse]

I don't think I am trolling. This endless competition between movie franchises is unhealthy, annoying, and is filtering into other threads. This is all about tdk and their hordes that troll anything that isn't batman. I think you all know I'm right.

I think you need to stay out of the box office thread if the discussion annoys you so much.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I'm sorry, but these people saying IM1 being so much better than X1, Spidey 1 and BB (which it WASNT BTW, It was slightly better than X1 and Spidey 1, and not as good as BB if you ask me) are the reason for the poorer reviews are just full of it.

At the end of the day, the movie didnt improve on the 1st one when it should have, it had all the correct ingredients, but just didnt integrate them together well enough, its a good sequel, but in general its just not as good as X2, Spidey 2 and TDK.

 

[Sentinel X]

Of those four I actually think Iron Man is the worst...that not to say I didn't enjoy it, I just never thought IM was as good as everyone made it out to be.

 

[Anita18]

It's fallen on deaf ears because it's been proven time and time again that Hollywood is bulletproof from recessions. Remember that little thing called the Great Depression? It actually helped Hollywood and spawned a golden age of films.

But hey, that was a long time ago. So let's look at 2009. It topped 2008, and was Hollywood's biggest year since 2002:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/21/business/21hollywood.html?_r=1
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B901X20091210

Let's stop making excuses here. This isn't even remotely a credible argument.

I even remember people making predictions that TDK wouldn't make that much because of high gas prices. Back then where I was, gas was approaching $4.50/gallon. People wouldn't bother going to the movies because it would cost too much to get there!

And yeah, I definitely remember reading about 2009 movies doing better than 2008 movies. Inflation is part of it, but inflation sure isn't stopping people from going to the movies.

After looking at the drops (and seeing how people are comparing them to SM3's drops now), I think I've come to the conclusion that even though IM2 may not have "bad" WOM, it doesn't have the "must-see!" WOM that gets people into the theaters. "Meh" isn't really going to cut it.

 

[Tony Stark]

IM2 needs at least 500 million to break even. It cost 200 million to produce and at least 50 million to market and the studio would only get half of the 500 million gross.

I don't think the studio will be satisfied unless it breaks 600 million worldwide.

Well you're wrong about the first part, but I guess it's a mute point because it will pretty easily clear 600 million WW, the question was wheather it would be the 800 mil that eveyone was predicting, which seems unlikely at this point.

 

[Marvin]

maybe it would have done better if they hadn't fired the real Rhodey.