Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yes, the hype is the most important thing and this movie, despite making a s**tload, just doesn't have that wow hype factor.

Really excellent postings Cook.

 

[Anita18]

Yes, exactly. It's not so much how it's doing right now as much as where the hype train and word of mouth is going to take the franchise. Trek is a good example of something on the come-up, and I've no doubt if the sequel doesn't change the formula too much it'll be huge. But it's not on IM-level yet, so it's only fair to get two close examples.

Cue in BB and SR. Both released a year apart, and had similar grosses. SR actually outdid BB worldwide by about 30 million. For the "Top Critics" and average ratings on RT, it also did slightly better. Brownie points for someone who can tell me where each franchise went?

TheVileOne is correct in that it's not about the numbers. But I also don't think he's taking into account how little IM2 has done for the franchise's future. It's neither good hype, nor bad hype. It just...came and went. The momentum is key for all sequels, and currently IM2 isn't showing signs anywhere of that.

Momentum! That's the word!

My ability to write coherently has been pretty poor the past few days and I don't know why.

But yeah, I actually think that ST has to expand in scope from the first one to keep the momentum going. I suspect that's why audiences haven't taken to IM2 the same way they took to IM1. There seems to be more characters, but the conflict doesn't appear to be more epic. It just comes off more crowded than anything else. Even TF2 had more crazy robots fighting on the pyramids, which the first one didn't have.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

30 minutes. Crossing fingers for the whole enchilada IMAX for Batman 3.

Not gonna happen. But I hope they film about 45 minutes in IMAX and the rest in 5-perf 65mm. It will look astonishing in IMAX and hopefully a BD transfer as good as Kill Bill.

 

[Tony Stark]

The Vile One, you are usually pretty levelheaded about boxoffice numbers regardless of your like or dislike of the film but I think that this is one of those times where you are letting your love of the film get in the way.

Nobody is calling the movie a disaster or a flop but it's numbers and overall reception are worrisome for the future of the franchise. Just like Spider-Man 3's reception would have hurt a real 4th Spider-Man movie, I think that the "meh/it was pretty good but not as good as the first one" reception will hurt a sequel to Iron Man 2.


The discussion about this flick's boxoffice numbers reminds me of the Superman Returns arguements.

For the record, I don't dislike Iron Man 2 because of it's boxoffice numbers I dislike it for all the reasons that I've already stated.

Anyway I'm not going to compare Spider-Man and Iron Man's boxoffice numbers anymore because the first Iron Man movie made nowhere near as much as the first Spider-Man movie. I'm going to compare it to Transformers because Transformers had a simular total gross and legs.

I fail to see how it's worrysome. I guess from your perspective I can see, since you didn't like the film. For those that enjoyed the film, and that seems to be the vast majority, I don't see why there's a need to worry.

Let me take your comparision of Superman Returns. while the critical reviews are more or less even, IM2's user reviews have been higher than the critical reviews, where SR were the same or slightly less.

Now let's look at TF2, first off if there was any movie where it wasn't just "meh it's not as good as the first," the reaction to TF2 was "what is this piece of ****!" Critically it was lambasted by the press and the fans, yet it made 400 million dollars.

Movie wise Star Trek was vastly superior as a movie to TF2, but it made 400 million dollars. I have no explanation as to why other than to say TF2 was released the week before the 4th of July weekend it was summer, and it had huge midnight numbers.

As for SM3, the box office didn't bother me at all. What bothered me was turning Peter Parker into a whiny little *****, and the stupid play by play with horrible actors durring the final fight scene.

 

[Anita18]

I fail to see how it's worrysome. I guess from your perspective I can see, since you didn't like the film. For those that enjoyed the film, and that seems to be the vast majority, I don't see why there's a need to worry.

For those you did enjoy the film, the fact that it isn't doing gangbusters at the BO compared to the first film should be at least a little worrisome. That means that it isn't expanding its audience.

As Crook and ISS and I just pointed out, momentum is very important, especially for movies that are part of a series. If one part underperforms in terms of BO or hype, then the next installment has to work that much harder to get people on board. IM1 built up a lot of goodwill and IM2 hasn't taken advantage of it. So the upcoming movies (Thor, Cap, Avengers, and obviously IM3) will have a little bit of a harder time getting a leg up, especially if it's all supposed to be under one Marvel Universe umbrella.

TF2 did gangbusters compared to TF1 because they simply took what worked in the first movie and made the scope bigger. Doesn't matter if the movie was crap, the marketing made it into a must-see event featuring some sweet money shots and that's all you need to get butts in seats. Now if they can make it even bigger for TF3...we'll have to see about that. The WOM was pretty bad for TF2 beyond the cool robots fighting.

I haven't seen IM2 yet, but the marketing didn't make it seem very exciting. Mickey Rourke and Sam Rockwell as bad guys are pretty cool, but the trailers didn't show much scope, especially compared to the first one. IM and WM shooting at things? That's your money shot? Alrighty then. You've got to make it bigger.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't know how to talk to you Tony or any of the emotionally invested posters in this thread because I'm not looking at or judging the boxoffice based on what I liked or disliked.

I thought that Transfomers was a bad movie but people seemed to love it, I thought that Transformers 2 was one of the worst movies ever but people seemed to like it. I thought that the Star Wars prequels were terrible but people seemed to like them. And I've aknowleged that all were big hits and that people liked them...despite my dislike.

Star Trek was never going to beat Transformers 2 because Star Trek was a prequel/reboot after a terrible last movie in the franchise and Star Trek has a stigma of being a complete nerd fest. I don't think that a Star Trek movie will ever gross as much as Transformers 2. The only way I see that happening is if the sequel is excellent and universally loved and the lead actor died. It's an apple and oranges thing. In my opinion Star Trek has nothing to do with the convo so I don't even know why it's being brought up.

Bring up the Cinema score for Iron Man 2 because that actually is legit but user reviews are pointless. Someone said that the user reviews for Kick-Ass were awesome and that the word of mouth was out of this world and guess what? That movie has had s**t legs and isn't even going to hit 50mil in the states.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

mix IM2's reception with the poor reception of TIH and you're on point there Anita, and I agree, Thor and Cap really are going to have to be great films if the hype for The Avengers amongst the GA is to be as big as possible

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Anita and Cook are making good points because they are looking at the raw numbers and overall reception regardless of there feelings about the movie. (I don't know what they thought of it)

Thor and Cap are really going to have to step things up. I hope Whedon helping with the Cap script makes it better than Joe Johnston's other fair. Man, I was just hoping that they chucked Johnston but no such luck.

 

[Tony Stark]

For those you did enjoy the film, the fact that it isn't doing gangbusters at the BO compared to the first film should be at least a little worrisome. That means that it isn't expanding its audience.

As Crook and ISS and I just pointed out, momentum is very important, especially for movies that are part of a series. If one part underperforms in terms of BO or hype, then the next installment has to work that much harder to get people on board. IM1 built up a lot of goodwill and IM2 hasn't taken advantage of it. So the upcoming movies (Thor, Cap, Avengers, and obviously IM3) will have a little bit of a harder time getting a leg up, especially if it's all supposed to be under one Marvel Universe umbrella.

TF2 did gangbusters compared to TF1 because they simply took what worked in the first movie and made the scope bigger. Doesn't matter if the movie was crap, the marketing made it into a must-see event featuring some sweet money shots and that's all you need to get butts in seats. Now if they can make it even bigger for TF3...we'll have to see about that. The WOM was pretty bad for TF2 beyond the cool robots fighting.

I haven't seen IM2 yet, but the marketing didn't make it seem very exciting. Mickey Rourke and Sam Rockwell as bad guys are pretty cool, but the trailers didn't show much scope, especially compared to the first one. IM and WM shooting at things? That's your money shot? Alrighty then. You've got to make it bigger.

I'm trying to be objective here, but that just makes no sense, even Shia LaBeouf is out trashing TF2, so the fact that it made 400 mil to me just says that it had a big opening wekend, had great midnight numbers, but the 2nd movie took everything that was horrible about the 1st movie and made it worse.

TF2 had a 61% drop in week 2 and IM2 had a 59% drop, but somehow TF2 was more successful? And that was after TF2 had a Wednesday opening, so it had a 61% drop after already having a depreceated weekend due to the Wednesday offset.

It's clear IM is getting a sequel and a spinoff with Avengers, and really after 3 movies these franchises burn out anyway. So like I said, there's nothing to be worried about. I'm more worried that if Thor and Cap don't perform well it could effect Avengers, but it won't effect IM3.

 

[Tony Stark]

Anita and Cook are making good points because they are looking at the raw numbers and overall reception regardless of there feelings about the movie. (I don't know what they thought of it)

Thor and Cap are really going to have to step things up. I hope Whedon helping with the Cap script makes it better than Joe Johnston's other fair. Man, I was just hoping that they chucked Johnston but no such luck.

And the daily numbers are ahead of TF2 at this same stage, infact 3.5 on Tuesday which is excellent considering the Monday drop. It's gone back to being ahead of the first money wise.

TF2 did gangbusters because it had a huge opening. In fact if you Factor the Wed-Fri numbers for TF2 the multiplier is 2x which is crap. The movie was completely front loaded and if any movie didn't have legs it was TF2. IM2 is going to do around 2.6 - 2.7, less than the first movie, but way better than TF2.

The simple fact is most people like IM2, better than TF2, but TF2 made more money.

You talk about raw data and yet you throw out the factual evidence of the user reviews, just because you didn't like the movie.

 

[redfirebird2008]

And the daily numbers are ahead of TF2 at this same stage, infact 3.5 on Tuesday which is excellent considering the Monday drop. It's gone back to being ahead of the first money wise.

TF2 did gangbusters because it had a huge opening. In fact if you Factor the Wed-Fri numbers for TF2 the multiplier is 2x which is crap. The movie was completely front loaded and if any movie didn't have legs it was TF2. IM2 is going to do around 2.6 - 2.7, less than the first movie, but way better than TF2.

The simple fact is most people like IM2, better than TF2, but TF2 made more money.

You talk about raw data and yet you throw out the factual evidence of the user reviews, just because you didn't like the movie.

IM2 isn't going to have a 2.6-2.7 multiplier. Not even close. It'll be lucky to crack a 2.4 multiplier at the rate it's going. I'll show you a rather startling comparison to a movie that has made $331m this year after opening $12m smaller than IM2, Alice in Wonderland:

Second Monday :

IM2 : $3,715,485

Alice : $6,054,110

Second Tuesday :

IM2 : $3,565,064

Alice : $6,010,072

Before the 2nd Weekend :

IM2 : $159,159,871

Alice : $146,625,356

Today after day 12:

IM2 : $218,481,425

Alice : $221,403,614


A 2.6 multiplier would give it a $332m total. NOT happening when it is already behind Alice in Wonderland and is losing ground by $2.5m per day.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Iron Man 2 is tracking behind the 331mil Alice In Wonderland at the same point in their runs. Yes, it's tuesday number is above the first one by a couple of 100 thousand, hooray it's saved!

I'm going to wait for the entire weekends numbers to come out before I judge one way or the other but yeah, it's not bad that it was actually above it...by a couple of 100 thousand.

And yes I realize that AIW had 3D ticket prices helping it but I'm not comparing ticket prices.

Damn, Red beat me to it and explained it better than I did.

I expect it to make up some ground after Memorial day weekend but after that it's screwed if it doesn't develop some late legs action.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Further comparison with Alice:

Days 4-12
Alice = $105m
IM2 = $90m

$90m / $105m = 85.7%.

Alice has made an additional $110m since its second Tuesday. If you take 85.7% of $110m, it would give IM2 a total of $94m for the rest of its run. It is at $218m right now, so that puts it at $312m total.

Now this doesn't take into consideration the fact that it is actually losing ground as time goes by. The last couple of days have only been 60% of Alice's daily gross. If this trend continues, then $312m looks like it's on the high end of where it could end up.

If you look at their first Monday through Thursday period, they were practically even: $30.5m for Alice and $31m for IM2. But then when you go to days 8 through 12, it gets ugly. $59m for IM2 and $75m for Alice. That puts IM2 at 78.7% of Alice's gross for that period. If it continues at this rate the rest of their runs, IM2 will end up around $304m.

 

[dark_b]

hey IM fans you dont have to care for IM2 boxoffice. but i have been on this forum for years. and i know how it works. if the movie makes a lot of money then the BO matters. if it doesnt then the fans try to ignore it. and the same with critics. if you look through the threads you will see that a lot of times they only care about reviews when they are good. when they are bad then they are BS.

and Tony Stark is proof of all this. look how he allwys throws reviews from IM2. because this is all he has.

is BO important? to the comicbook movie fans.............YES.

and BO is not connected with the quality . if it would be then small movies would make 3 billion.

 

[Tony Stark]

You guys are full of it. Sure compare it to a 3D movie, and you're going to get those numbers, but how about comparing Alice to the first IM, or TF2 and you get THE SAME RESULT.

Honestly guys what is the deal, if you don't like the movie fine. I don't get why you two have to use the BO returns to trash the movie. This is why the BO forums always turn into flame fests.

 

[redfirebird2008]

You guys are full of it. Sure compare it to a 3D movie, and you're going to get those numbers, but how about comparing Alice to the first IM, or TF2 and you get THE SAME RESULT.

Honestly guys what is the deal, if you don't like the movie fine. I don't get why you two have to use the BO returns to trash the movie. This is why the BO forums always turn into flame fests.

I'm not trashing the movie. I am looking at it from an objective standpoint. This is now the SECOND time you have accused me of trolling when I was doing nothing of the sort. The numbers speak for themselves. 3D is irrelevant to the fact that IM2 opened $12m bigger and is already $3m behind just 9 days later, and losing $2.5m per day to Alice. You stated it would get a 2.6 or 2.7 multiplier, but that simply will not happen unless it grows some miracle legs out of nowhere.

 

[dark_b]

You guys are full of it. Sure compare it to a 3D movie, and you're going to get those numbers, but how about comparing Alice to the first IM, or TF2 and you get THE SAME RESULT.

Honestly guys what is the deal, if you don't like the movie fine. I don't get why you two have to use the BO returns to trash the movie. This is why the BO forums always turn into flame fests.

isnt it funny how he made this up ?

hahahahhahahahhaha

 

[redfirebird2008]

BTW Stark, Alice would have made around $265m without the boost from 3D. But this doesn't change the fact that IM2's dollar gross each day is not shaping up for a 2.6 multiplier like you claimed. Alice's total of $331m would be a 2.6 multiplier for IM2. It is now $3m behind despite a $12m headstart over the opening weekend and it is losing $2.5m per day. How do you reckon it will manage to reach $331m for a 2.6 multiplier if it's already behind Alice and losing $2.5m per day?

 

[Tony Stark]

Alice 2nd Tuesday: $6,010,072

Spider-man 1 2nd Tuesday: $4,527,566

Iron Man 2 2nd Tuesday: $3,565,064

Spider-Man 3 2nd tuesday: $3,457,527

Iron Man 1 2nd Tuesday: $3,357,146

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

hey IM fans you dont have to care for IM2 boxoffice. but i have been on this forum for years. and i know how it works. if the movie makes a lot of money then the BO matters. if it doesnt then the fans try to ignore it. and the same with critics. if you look through the threads you will see that a lot of times they only care about reviews when they are good. when they are bad then they are BS.

and Tony Stark is proof of all this. look how he allwys throws reviews from IM2. because this is all he has.

is BO important? to the comicbook movie fans.............YES.

and BO is not connected with the quality . if it would be then small movies would make 3 billion.

I'm been on the forum since 2003 and you are exactly correct. Every single word in your post is dead on.

You guys are full of it. Sure compare it to a 3D movie, and you're going to get those numbers, but how about comparing Alice to the first IM, or TF2 and you get THE SAME RESULT.

Honestly guys what is the deal, if you don't like the movie fine. I don't get why you two have to use the BO returns to trash the movie. This is why the BO forums always turn into flame fests.

We are comparing dollar amounts. We are being completely fair, you just refuse to look at the numbers objectively.

I'm not trashing the movie. I am looking at it from an objective standpoint. This is now the SECOND time you have accused me of trolling when I was doing nothing of the sort. The numbers speak for themselves. 3D is irrelevant to the fact that IM2 opened $12m bigger and is already $3m behind just 9 days later, and losing $2.5m per day to Alice. You stated it would get a 2.6 or 2.7 multiplier, but that simply will not happen unless it grows some miracle legs out of nowhere.

You are right about it's legs unless it has some great weekend drops from here on out it will struggle to make 300mil. And it's entiring possible that it could have some great weekend drops from here on out but right now, it's in trouble. I fail to see how we are trolls.

BTW Stark, Alice would have made around $265m without the boost from 3D. But this doesn't change the fact that IM2's dollar gross each day is not shaping up for a 2.6 multiplier like you claimed. Alice's total of $331m would be a 2.6 multiplier for IM2. It is now $3m behind despite a $12m headstart over the opening weekend and it is losing $2.5m per day. How do you reckon it will manage to reach $331m for a 2.6 multiplier if it's already behind Alice and losing $2.5m per day?

And blam, you just put out the raw numbers and left that silly emotion at the door...as you should when you talk about the boxoffice numbers.

 

[Iron_Stark]

So this movie has made 218.5 million in 12 days and now we have to worry about the future of the franchise?? smh


We're getting Iron Man in the Avengers and Iron Man 3! What the hell is there to worry about?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Alice 2nd Tuesday: $6,010,072

Spider-man 1 2nd Tuesday: $4,527,566

Iron Man 2 2nd Tuesday: $3,565,064

Spider-Man 3 2nd tuesday: $3,457,527

Iron Man 1 2nd Tuesday: $3,357,146

The one thing it has going for it is Alice drops 21.5% on its second Wednesday. IM2 should be more in the 6-10% area.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that Iron Man 2 could drop 15% today but you are right it most likely won't be dropping that hard.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I think that Iron Man 2 could drop 15% today but you are right it most likely won't be dropping that hard.

Still losing a lot of ground each day to Alice. Realistically speaking, it's probably going to lose another $7-8m over the next 5 days (Weds, Thurs, Weekend). That puts it around $10m behind after 3 weekends despite a $12m lead during opening weekend. That is a $22m turnaround in just 14 days. Not good at all.

 

[hatebox]

If the movie doesn't make $300m domestic that would be an outright disappointment any way you cut it. Especially with a production budget of $200m and the fact that it won't make Spiderman numbers internationally. I think the next couple of weekends will have kinder drops than the one it's just had though, what with Shrek 4 and Sex in the City skewed to totally different demographics.