Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

Yes some of the arguments on here are beyond rediculous. Calling this movie a failure because it doesn't reach 400 million is just plain stupid. If TF2 is what a movie has to be, to make 400 million, then I'll take IM2 any day of the week.

I've also said that IMO Abrams Star Trek was better than any movie I've seen in the last 10 years, and was way more enjoyable than any of the Star Wars prequels. But if you judge it by box office it didn't do very well.

Also inflation works two ways. IM2 had a 200 million production budget, well guess what that's less than just about every major Superhero movie made in the last 10 years when inflation adjusted. And the quality of the CGI and the action, you got your bang for your buck.

Somebody was saying how IM2 BO performance was exactly like Superman Returns. Well Superman Returns had a 270 million dollar production budget and the studio tried to bury it. That's like 300 million in 2010 dollars.

 

[dark_b]

Yes some of the arguments on here are beyond rediculous. Calling this movie a failure because it doesn't reach 400 million is just plain stupid. If TF2 is what a movie has to be, to make 400 million, then I'll take IM2 any day of the week.

I've also said that IMO Abrams Star Trek was better than any movie I've seen in the last 10 years, and was way more enjoyable than any of the Star Wars prequels. But if you judge it by box office it didn't do very well.

Also inflation works two ways. IM2 had a 200 million production budget, well guess what that's less than just about every major Superhero movie made in the last 10 years when inflation adjusted. And the quality of the CGI and the action, you got your bang for your buck.

Somebody was saying how IM2 BO performance was exactly like Superman Returns. Well Superman Returns had a 270 million dollar production budget and the studio tried to bury it. That's like 300 million in 2010 dollars.

come on copy/paste the post where a SHH user said that its a BO failure.

come on you can do it t:

 

[hatebox]

Yes some of the arguments on here are beyond rediculous. Calling this movie a failure because it doesn't reach 400 million is just plain stupid.

I don't recall anyone saying that. There's no need to imply that the 'haters' (really, Vile, must we have that word in this discussion?) are saying this movie has bombed. No-one is.

I think what some people may be pondering is that if Iron Man 2 barely gets over $600m WW then the studio may re-evaluate the potential success of The Avengers, given that there's nothing (yet) to suggest that Cap Am or Thor will make really big money.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

^pretty much sums it up

 

[Iron_Stark]

come on copy/paste the post where a SHH user said that its a BO failure.

come on you can do it t:

Yeah no one has come out and said it's a failure because they would be looking very stupid if they called it that.

BUT there have been posts where they're trying to imply it's a failure with all this ridiculous talk of it becoming baggage, not being able to pull his own weight, and trying to say Marvel should re-evaluate the Avengers.

If this was mid-July and the box office was at 218.5 THEN there would be reason for concern, but this is only week 2.

 

[Mr. Earle]

I dont understand how TF:ROTF was so successful but IM2 cant compete with those numbers even though it has such a glorious cast and a famous superhero on board. Why the hell did so many people watch that bullcrap movie?

 

[Iron_Stark]

Transformers had big explosions and Megan Fox while Iron Man had "too much talking" and "it was an Avengers commercial"

 

[jmc]

^ That's probably the actual reason.

 

[Mr. Earle]

Transformers had big explosions and Megan Fox while Iron Man had "too much talking" and "it was an Avengers commercial"

Goddamn it!
So its not Bay's fault. Its the people's fault for encouraging that idiot.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I honestly don't think the performance has to do with people's opinion of the movie. Most of the user reviews have been extremely high especially when comparing them to other dissapointing sequels like SM3 and TF2.

TF2 is a perfect example, even Shia LaBeouf said it wasn't as good, and yet it made more money, even adjusted for inflation.

SM2 is generally considered better than SM1, it made less money and way less when inflation adjusted.

There's alot of factors here, likeability may have been one, but I don't feel it was the main factor when seeing how highly reviewed it was among fans.

All I can say is the movie was extremely front loaded. Star Trek had great legs, but IM2 will surpass it's domestic total perhaps by this weekend.

The thing is though, you are using internet reviews when they only make a small percentage of the movie going public, most people who go to the movies done come onto web-sites and post reviews and talk about them for hours on end. You say TF2 was hated by everyone? If that were the case, the DVD sales would have been poor because people went to see it and thought it was crap, yes?

No, in its first weekend of release the DVD became the highest grossing of the year and has had steady sales drops since, so, sorry but TF2 is liked by the GA and this proves it.

SM3's dvd sales on the other hand, werent that good so this shows people who went to see it werent wowed to buy the DVD.

The fact of the matter is, the WOM on IM2 isnt that good, you dont have people going out of their way to recommend it to others like they were for the first movie, and the BO shows this.

For those you did enjoy the film, the fact that it isn't doing gangbusters at the BO compared to the first film should be at least a little worrisome. That means that it isn't expanding its audience.

As Crook and ISS and I just pointed out, momentum is very important, especially for movies that are part of a series. If one part underperforms in terms of BO or hype, then the next installment has to work that much harder to get people on board. IM1 built up a lot of goodwill and IM2 hasn't taken advantage of it. So the upcoming movies (Thor, Cap, Avengers, and obviously IM3) will have a little bit of a harder time getting a leg up, especially if it's all supposed to be under one Marvel Universe umbrella.

TF2 did gangbusters compared to TF1 because they simply took what worked in the first movie and made the scope bigger. Doesn't matter if the movie was crap, the marketing made it into a must-see event featuring some sweet money shots and that's all you need to get butts in seats. Now if they can make it even bigger for TF3...we'll have to see about that. The WOM was pretty bad for TF2 beyond the cool robots fighting.

I haven't seen IM2 yet, but the marketing didn't make it seem very exciting. Mickey Rourke and Sam Rockwell as bad guys are pretty cool, but the trailers didn't show much scope, especially compared to the first one. IM and WM shooting at things? That's your money shot? Alrighty then. You've got to make it bigger.

Definately, I said from the start the trailers havent been that good, they showed a lot of great character moments, but no real money shots to get the droves in, and this is the same in the movie also. The action scene's, which is what most people go for, just werent impressive and were far too short.

If the movie doesn't make $300m domestic that would be an outright disappointment any way you cut it. Especially with a production budget of $200m and the fact that it won't make Spiderman numbers internationally. I think the next couple of weekends will have kinder drops than the one it's just had though, what with Shrek 4 and Sex in the City skewed to totally different demographics.

Definately, I think Marvel will be very dissapointed with anything less than $300 million domestic.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I dont understand how TF:ROTF was so successful but IM2 cant compete with those numbers even though it has such a glorious cast and a famous superhero on board. Why the hell did so many people watch that bullcrap movie?

It's the kid factor, bro. Go look at TF1 and IM1's DVD sales. There is a huge discrepancy between them, despite similar box office. That's because kids get their parents to buy them DVD's even if the parents hate the movie. Shrek 3 sold a bunch of DVD's too and most adults hated it. Iron Man doesn't attract as many kids as Transformers. Just the way it is.

 

[Tony Stark]

I dont understand how TF:ROTF was so successful but IM2 cant compete with those numbers even though it has such a glorious cast and a famous superhero on board. Why the hell did so many people watch that bullcrap movie?

I don't have a good answer for that, but I will say that TF 2 was extremely frontloaded, and I think if it had been released on a Friday and not a Wednesday, you would have seen a worse than SM3 type slide.

 

[Tony Stark]

The thing is though, you are using internet reviews when they only make a small percentage of the movie going public, most people who go to the movies done come onto web-sites and post reviews and talk about them for hours on end. You say TF2 was hated by everyone? If that were the case, the DVD sales would have been poor because people went to see it and thought it was crap, yes?

No, in its first weekend of release the DVD became the highest grossing of the year and has had steady sales drops since, so, sorry but TF2 is liked by the GA and this proves it.

SM3's dvd sales on the other hand, werent that good so this shows people who went to see it werent wowed to buy the DVD.

The fact of the matter is, the WOM on IM2 isnt that good, you dont have people going out of their way to recommend it to others like they were for the first movie, and the BO shows this.

As far as WOM on IM2 that's pretty speculative on your part. The documentable evidence is that IM2 has good WOM, it looks like it's not getting as much repeat buisness as the first, and is more front loaded.

While Internet reviews are a small sampling, juding from that sampling and my own experience, people thought TF2 was a stupid piece of crap. Hell even Shia LaBeouf is running around saying it was a stupid piece of crap, well ok he was a little more diplomatic about it, but clearly he blamed Bay for the ADD movie of the year.

Now maybe the kiddies thought TF2 was great and they may not be reflected in the reviews, but I think it's safe to say that the 25-55 crowd thought TF2 wasn't very good. I'd be curious to see some exit polling of TF2's demographics.

Even though the first movies did similar numbers, I do not compare TF with IM, because IM was about 10000% more intelligent than any thing Bay has ever done.

Dispite the numbers, I'd say the general public if asked would say Star Trek was the superior movie last summer, and the fact that it was in the discussion for an Oscar nomination for best picture pretty much says it all.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Transformers 2 was as big as it was because the film was loaded with fights and such, so people kept watching it cause it looked cool. Despite the fact it sucked.

For people saying Transformers 2 wasn't hated, the drops on TF2 were pretty large weekend to weekend (though not catastrophically bad), and we have the stars of the movie openly bashing it. They wouldn't be doing that if the studio didn't give them the okay to bash it. I think Shia's bashing of it is in part a way to sell Transformers 3 and defeat the ill will Transformers 2 created.

 

[hatebox]

TF2 really is an anomaly for me. When I look at the top 10 highest grossing domestic films ever I can see the merit in their money making or at least understand why they were so big even if they were crap (Phantom Menace).

BuTF2 defies any logic.The big opening I get, but to still go on to make that much, and the big dvd sales... were there really enough dumb kids excited by that kind of action to make it THAT much money? That's a box office performance I don't comprehend. Well, that and Alice's WW gross which, terrifyingly, will hit 1 billion.

 

[Tony Stark]

Transformers had big explosions and Megan Fox while Iron Man had "too much talking" and "it was an Avengers commercial"

Also I forgot to say that TF3 will be screwed then because Megan Fox was dropped from TF3:

http://www.deadline.com/2010/05/michael-bays-revenge-no-more-megan/

 

[Spider-Fan]

She was openly bashing Michael Bay. That's why she is gone.

I think Shia bashing TF2 is completely staged and at studio request. They're trying to make people think TF3 won't be TF2 and defeat the bad press/reviews.

 

[Crook]

Alice and TF2 are two films who did huge, but I absolutely loathe as films. I'm not really in the same demographic as Alice so it's hard for me to gauge actual word of mouth, but I know at least for TF2 that the teen/adult audiences were definitely split. And this was amongst fans of the first if that means anything.

We'll see how TF3 does. I'm pretty confident it won't do as huge as the second. And no, not because of Fox of being dropped. People that actually think audiences went in droves to TF cause of her are beyond delusional.

 

[Tony Stark]

Transformers 2 was as big as it was because the film was loaded with fights and such, so people kept watching it cause it looked cool. Despite the fact it sucked.

For people saying Transformers 2 wasn't hated, the drops on TF2 were pretty large weekend to weekend (though not catastrophically bad), and we have the stars of the movie openly bashing it. They wouldn't be doing that if the studio didn't give them the okay to bash it. I think Shia's bashing of it is in part a way to sell Transformers 3 and defeat the ill will Transformers 2 created.

What's sad is that withing TF3 I saw a shell of a good movie, it just needed two or three more stops in the editing room.

I'm just not sure Michael Bay can do it. He's really a poor film maker. I even thought in the first movie the first hour or so was awesome, then it just got silly. Like when the agent dude takes his shirt off and had the Superman logo on his undershirt.

What made the first movie work was some of the side characters, especially Jon Voight gave the movie alot of credibility.

I've said this before, but the problem with TF2 is it too everything that was bad about TF1 and added more of that, and had little to nothing that was good about TF1.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Alice and TF2 are two films who did huge, but I absolutely loathe as films. I'm not really in the same demographic as Alice so it's hard for me to gauge actual word of mouth, but I know at least for TF2 that the teen/adult audiences were definitely split. And this was amongst fans of the first if that means anything.

We'll see how TF3 does. I'm pretty confident it won't do as huge as the second. And no, not because of Fox of being dropped. People that actually think audiences went in droves to TF cause of her are beyond delusional.

I was shocked Alice sucked. Tim Burton usually at least tries when he makes his films, but Alice was such a soulless production with nothing original and really bad silliness. Burton sold out on that one.

What's sad is that withing TF3 I saw a shell of a good movie, it just needed two or three more stops in the editing room.

I'm just not sure Michael Bay can do it. He's really a poor film maker. I even thought in the first movie the first hour or so was awesome, then it just got silly. Like when the agent dude takes his shirt off and had the Superman logo on his undershirt.

What made the first movie work was some of the side characters, especially Jon Voight gave the movie alot of credibility.

I've said this before, but the problem with TF2 is it too everything that was bad about TF1 and added more of that, and had little to nothing that was good about TF1.

TF2 was made durign the strike, so he had more control and no one was around to tell him his ideas suck

I don't see Transformers 3 turning out any good, either. Michael Bay got lucky with TF1, and when he had more sway we saw what happened. The studio kept him, so I don't see him getting a decrease in power like the film needs. Transformers 3 will be TF2 all over again: unneccessary silliness that lacks any real soul or emotion and tries to wow you with explosions. At least with TF1, I felt like they at least tried to bring some emotional depth. TF2 didn't even bother.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I was shocked Alice sucked. Tim Burton usually at least tries when he makes his films, but Alice was such a soulless production with nothing original and really bad silliness. Burton sold out on that one.



TF2 was made durign the strike, so he had more control and no one was around to tell him his ideas suck

I don't see Transformers 3 turning out any good, either. Michael Bay got lucky with TF1, and when he had more sway we saw what happened. The studio kept him, so I don't see him getting a decrease in power like the film needs. Transformers 3 will be TF2 all over again: unneccessary silliness that lacks any real soul or emotion and tries to wow you with explosions. At least with TF1, I felt like they at least tried to bring some emotional depth. TF2 didn't even bother.

Burton sold out a long time ago. Planet of the Apes, anyone?

As for TF3, what's interesting is you have a couple great actors involved: Malkovich and McDormand. I assume they're just in it for the money.

 

[Mr. Earle]

Alice and TF2 are two films who did huge, but I absolutely loathe as films. I'm not really in the same demographic as Alice so it's hard for me to gauge actual word of mouth, but I know at least for TF2 that the teen/adult audiences were definitely split. And this was amongst fans of the first if that means anything.

We'll see how TF3 does. I'm pretty confident it won't do as huge as the second. And no, not because of Fox of being dropped. People that actually think audiences went in droves to TF cause of her are beyond delusional.

Wait... Fox was dropped? Why? Was it because of all the comments she made about Bay?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Wait... Fox was dropped? Why? Was it because of all the comments she made about Bay?

Very likely. Bay is supposedly a Nazi pig. Color me surprised...NOT!

 

[redfirebird2008]

IM2 made $3.1m yesterday, a drop of 12%. Not bad but not awesome either. It dropped roughly 55% from last Wednesday and it lost another $1.6m compared to Alice (which had a steep drop of 21.5% on its second Wednesday).

 

[Tony Stark]

Wait... Fox was dropped? Why? Was it because of all the comments she made about Bay?

According to her she opted out, according to the studio she was fired. I'm likely to believe the studio.

I'm positive this has to do with her public comments, the studio does not like negative comments about their products, (see Katie Holmes/Batman Begins).