Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[redfirebird2008]

According to her she opted out, according to the studio she was fired. I'm likely to believe the studio.

I'm positive this has to do with her public comments, the studio does not like negative comments about their products, (see Katie Holmes/Batman Begins).

When did Katie Holmes bash Batman Begins?

 

[hatebox]

When did Katie Holmes bash Batman Begins?

She didn't, but her relationship with Cruise, which surfaced a month or two before the filmed opened, was all she talked about and she did little to promote her actual movie on the press circuit. This was particularly annoying for WB as War of the Worlds opened at a similar time.

 

[redfirebird2008]

She didn't, but her relationship with Cruise, which surfaced a month or two before the filmed opened, was all she talked about and she did little to promote her actual movie on the press circuit. This was particularly annoying for WB as War of the Worlds opened at a similar time.

I do remember this, although WB's own marketing was pathetic as well.

 

[hatebox]

It was, and the relationship was all the press asked about so she was buggered either way really.

 

[Tony Stark]

Hatebox is correct. I think it was particularly a slap in the face to WB, because she got the job in the first place because of her relationship with the WB on Dawson's Creek. There were probably more qualified actresses they could have went with.

Pretty much her career acting wise has been in flames since. I realize she's been trying to raise her daughter durring that time and may have put the acting career on the back burner to be a mom, but because she burned her bridges there, I don't see her getting nearly the quality of projects like BB, in the future. She has a few upcoming projects coming up, both are pretty low on the radar.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

As far as WOM on IM2 that's pretty speculative on your part. The documentable evidence is that IM2 has good WOM, it looks like it's not getting as much repeat buisness as the first, and is more front loaded.

Isnt this a bit of a hypocritical statement? If it aint getting as much repeat business as the first, that indicates the WOM ISNT very good at all.

While Internet reviews are a small sampling, juding from that sampling and my own experience, people thought TF2 was a stupid piece of crap. Hell even Shia LaBeouf is running around saying it was a stupid piece of crap, well ok he was a little more diplomatic about it, but clearly he blamed Bay for the ADD movie of the year.

Now maybe the kiddies thought TF2 was great and they may not be reflected in the reviews, but I think it's safe to say that the 25-55 crowd thought TF2 wasn't very good. I'd be curious to see some exit polling of TF2's demographics.

Even though the first movies did similar numbers, I do not compare TF with IM, because IM was about 10000% more intelligent than any thing Bay has ever done.

Dispite the numbers, I'd say the general public if asked would say Star Trek was the superior movie last summer, and the fact that it was in the discussion for an Oscar nomination for best picture pretty much says it all.

You say all this, but the kiddies alone didnt give the movie the amazing DVD sales it had/has. ROTF only sold $17 million less in DVD sales than TDK, and this was in a year when Blu-ray became a lot more prominent than 2008, so in total on BD and DVD, the movie has surpassed TDK for income.

Transformers 2 was as big as it was because the film was loaded with fights and such, so people kept watching it cause it looked cool. Despite the fact it sucked.

For people saying Transformers 2 wasn't hated, the drops on TF2 were pretty large weekend to weekend (though not catastrophically bad), and we have the stars of the movie openly bashing it. They wouldn't be doing that if the studio didn't give them the okay to bash it. I think Shia's bashing of it is in part a way to sell Transformers 3 and defeat the ill will Transformers 2 created.

Again, see above, the DVD sales were astonishing, and the blu-ray sold well also, those arent the sales of a movie 'hated by everyone' supposedly.

 

[redfirebird2008]

You say all this, but the kiddies alone didnt give the movie the amazing DVD sales it had/has. ROTF only sold $17 million less in DVD sales than TDK, and this was in a year when Blu-ray became a lot more prominent than 2008, so in total on BD and DVD, the movie has surpassed TDK for income.

Do you actually have a source on this? TDK was much bigger in unit sales than TF2 on home video. I also would not fully trust The-Numbers.com whether it's revenue or unit sales. They've been known to be way off over the years. Heck, they've been known to make drastic changes out of nowhere. They estimate the numbers. They don't have the actual data. There was a guy at Box Office Mojo who had access to the Nielsen Videoscan charts and it was quite a bit different from The-Numbers.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Do you actually have a source on this? Because I've got a couple of sources that directly contradict what you are claiming. TDK was much bigger in unit sales than TF2 on home video. I also would not fully trust The-Numbers.com whether it's revenue or unit sales. They've been known to be way off over the years. Heck, they've been known to make drastic changes out of nowhere. They estimate the numbers. They don't have the actual data. There was a guy at Box Office Mojo who had access to the Nielsen Videoscan charts and it was quite a bit different from The-Numbers.

I was talking about profits rather than units, and The-numbers dont always get it right straight away but eventually they tend to get the correct number once a DVD has been out long enough, and both have. According to that site TF2 made over $216 million on DVD, and TDK made over $233 million, but this doesnt factor in blu-ray's, whose sales were 75% up in 2009 from 2008.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I was talking about profits rather than units, and The-numbers dont always get it right straight away but eventually they tend to get the correct number once a DVD has been out long enough, and both have. According to that site TF2 made over $216 million on DVD, and TDK made over $233 million, but this doesnt factor in blu-ray's, whose sales were 75% up in 2009 from 2008.

How do you know they "eventually have the correct number"? They've admitted that their numbers are just estimates. The guy I'm talking about has both TDK and TF1 around 19 million units sold. TF2 was considerably smaller than both of them. He has access to the actual Videoscan charts, which are not released to the public. Videoscan is the equivalent of Soundscan. It's run by the same company. It's a shame the movie industry doesn't have a Billboard company to track this stuff officially. I've never trusted The-Numbers because they constantly change things around.

As for your point about Blu-ray, TDK sold more Blu-ray's than any other movie until Avatar came along, so that is an irrelevant point as it relates to TF2.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

How do you know they "eventually have the correct number"? They've admitted that their numbers are just estimates. The guy I'm talking about has both TDK and TF1 around 19 million units sold. TF2 was considerably smaller than both of them. He has access to the actual Videoscan charts, which are not released to the public. Videoscan is the equivalent of Soundscan. It's run by the same company. It's a shame the movie industry doesn't have a Billboard company to track this stuff officially. I've never trusted The-Numbers because they constantly change things around.

As for your point about Blu-ray, TDK sold more Blu-ray's than any other movie until Avatar came along, so that is an irrelevant point as it relates to TF2.

Estimates usually arent far off though are they? Fair enough about Blu-rays, but it was announced everywere that TF2 was the highest selling DVD of 2009 in its first week of release, and The-numbers had the same numbers as all other web-sites did when it was announced, so I dont think they were that far off.

TF1 and TDK did sell more units though.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Estimates usually arent far off though are they? Fair enough about Blu-rays, but it was announced everywere that TF2 was the highest selling DVD of 2009 in its first week of release, and The-numbers had the same numbers as all other web-sites did when it was announced, so I dont think they were that far off.

TF1 and TDK did sell more units though.

They are at minimum 2 million lower for TF2 and at minimum 4.5 million lower for TDK and 2.5 million lower for TF1. Here's the top 100 in North America as of January 2010. Note that titles in red were new additions to the chart and titles in bold had updated numbers from the previous chart:

Top 100 DVD Sales Of All Time

* as of 10 January 2010


1 1 FINDING NEMO Animated 23.600.000
2 2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL J. Depp 21.500.000
3 3 SHREK 2 Animated 20.400.000
4 5 THE DARK KNIGHT Christian Bale, Michael Caine 18.793.000
5 6 TRANSFORMERS Shia LaBoeuf, Tyrese Gibson 18.270.000
6 4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST Johnny Depp 17.383.000
7 9 CARS Animated 16.185.000
8 7 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING Elijah Wood 16.000.000
9 8 THE INCREDIBLES Animated 15.600.000
10 10 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS Elijah Wood 14.930.000
11 11 SPIDER-MAN Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 14.769.000
12 12 THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH.. Georgie Henley 14.725.000
13 13 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Johnny Depp 14.197.000
14 18 HAPPY FEET Animated 14.180.000
15 21 THE POLAR EXPRESS Tom Hanks 13.932.000
16 14 300 Gerard Butler, Lena Headey 13.900.000
17 15 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING Elijah Wood 13.800.000
18 16 RATATOUILLE Animated 13.500.000
19 17 SHREK Animated 13.500.000
20 20 IRON MAN Robert Downey Jr, Terrence Howard 13.300.000
21 23 MONSTERS, INC. Animated 13.272.000
22 19 MADAGASCAR Animated 13.200.000
23 22 SHREK THE THIRD Animated 12.700.000
24 24 HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE Daniel Radcliffe 12.600.000
25 26 HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE Daniel Radcliffe 12.400.000
26 25 THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST Jim Caviezel, Luca Lionello 12.040.000
27 27 SPIDER-MAN 2 Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 11.723.000
28 30 HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF PHOENIX Daniel Radcliffe 11.637.000
29 28 HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN Daniel Radcliffe 11.600.000
30 51 TWILIGHT Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson 11.588.000
31 NE TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox 11.520.000
32 29 THE MATRIX Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 11.000.000
33 31 HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS Daniel Radcliffe 10.900.000
34 32 BATMAN BEGINS Christian Bale, Liam Neeson 10.810.000
35 35 THE NOTEBOOK Ryan Gosling, Rachel McAdams 10.680.000
36 33 STAR WARS: EPISODE II - ATTACK OF THE CLONES Ewan McGregor 10.500.000
37 34 WALL-E Animated 10.400.000
38 36 STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH Hayden Christensen 9.850.000
39 37 ICE AGE Animated 9.500.000
40 48 MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING Nia Vardalos, John Corbett 9.470.000
41 NE UP Animated 9.433.000
42 38 PEARL HARBOR Ben Affleck, Kate Beckinsale 9.400.000
43 39 SHARK TALE Animated 9.400.000
44 40 KUNG FU PANDA Animated 9.335.000
45 41 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM Ben Stiller, Carla Gugino 9.300.000
46 44 ICE AGE 2: THE MELTDOWN Animated 9.289.000
47 NE THE HANGOVER Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms 9.121.000
48 42 NATIONAL TREASURE Nicolas Cage, Jon Voight 8.960.000
49 43 THE DEPARTED Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon 8.940.000
50 45 THE MATRIX RELOADED Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 8.800.000
51 46 ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS Jason Lee, David Cross 8.655.000
52 47 OVER THE HEDGE Animated 8.625.000
53 49 I AM LEGEND Will Smith, Alice Braga 8.600.000
54 50 THE 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN Steve Carell, Catherine Keener 8.600.000
55 NE HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE Daniel Radcliffe 8.580.000
56 52 SPIDER-MAN 3 Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 8.400.000
57 61 ELF Will Ferrell, Andy Richter 8.395.000
58 56 THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS Paul Walker, Vin Diesel 8.300.000
59 53 STAR WARS: EPISODE I - THE PHANTOM MENACE Liam Neeson 8.265.000
60 82 MADAGASCAR: ESCAPE 2 AFRICA Animated 8.190.000
61 NE STAR TREK Chris Pine, Zachary Quinto 8.059.000
62 54 THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM Matt Damon, Julia Stiles 8.033.000
63 55 THE LION KING Animated 8.000.000
64 66 MAMMA MIA - THE MOVIE Meryl Streep, Pierce Brosnan 7.970.000
65 NE SNOW WHITE AND THE SEVEN DWARFS Animated 7.929.000
66 68 GLADIATOR Russell Crowe 7.800.000
67 57 KING KONG Jack Black, Naomi Watts 7.800.000
68 58 MEET THE FOCKERS Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller 7.800.000
69 60 STAR WARS TRILOGY Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford 7.700.000
70 59 THE BOURNE IDENTITY Matt Damon, Franka Potente 7.700.000
71 63 LILO & STITCH Animated 7.600.000
72 62 THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW Dennis Quaid, Jake Gyllenhaal 7.600.000
73 64 WALK THE LINE Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Witherspoon 7.500.000
74 65 THE BOURNE SUPREMACY Matt Damon 7.350.000
75 93 TROY Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom 7.346.000
76 69 MR. AND MRS. SMITH Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie 7.300.000
77 70 NAPOLEON DYNAMITE Jon Heder 7.300.000
78 67 THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway 7.300.000
79 71 THE SIMPSONS MOVIE Animated 7.250.000
80 92 THE DA VINCI CODE Tom Hanks, Audrey Tautou 7.230.000
81 72 WEDDING CRASHERS Owen Wilson, Vince Vaughn 7.210.000
82 75 CASINO ROYALE Daniel Craig, Eva Green 7.200.000
83 74 NATIONAL TREASURE 2: BOOK OF SECRETS Nicolas Cage 7.200.000
84 73 SUPERBAD Jonah Hill, Michael Cera 7.200.000
85 76 FANTASTIC FOUR Chris Evans, Jessica Alba 7.110.000
86 77 INDIANA JONES & THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL Harrison Ford 7.080.000
87 78 AUSTIN POWERS IN GOLDMEMBER Mike Myers, Beyonce Knowles 7.074.000
88 79 THE LITTLE MERMAID Animated 7.030.000
89 81 SEABISCUIT Jeff Bridges, Tobey McGuire 6.900.000
90 80 TALLADEGA NIGHTS: THE BALLAD OF RICKY BOBBY Will Ferrell 6.900.000
91 83 CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY Johnny Depp 6.800.000
92 85 ENCHANTED Patrick Dempsey, Amy Adams 6.800.000
93 84 XXX Vin Diesel 6.800.000
94 91 BEE MOVIE Animated 6.750.000
95 86 WAR OF THE WORLDS Tom Cruise, Dakota Fanning 6.630.000
96 87 RAY Jamie Foxx 6.600.000
97 88 WILD HOGS Tim Allen, John Travolta 6.520.000
98 89 HITCH Will Smith 6.500.000
99 90 THE LION KING 1½ Animated 6.500.000
100 94 OPEN SEASON Animated 6.400.000
100 95 SIGNS Mel Gibson, Joaquin Phoenix 6.400.000
100 96 THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 6.400.000


Here is where he posted it under the name "Adam Strange" at Box Office Mojo:

http://boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=81566&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=270


He originally started posting these figures on another forum:

http://www.ukmix.org/forums/viewtopic.php?t=60990&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

If you look through that thread, you will see him answering people's requests for numbers on a bunch of different movies.

He eventually got tired of people bugging him about The-Numbers.com, so he stopped posting at Box Office Mojo, although he did post today:

Perhaps the most impressive thing about "Avatar" is that right now it's the longest running #1 DVD hit of the last 10 years (!) :

The last DVD title that spent 4 weeks at #1 on the VideoScan Top 20 Chart was "The Gladiator" back in 2000.

Phenomenon!

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Hatebox is correct. I think it was particularly a slap in the face to WB, because she got the job in the first place because of her relationship with the WB on Dawson's Creek. There were probably more qualified actresses they could have went with.

Pretty much her career acting wise has been in flames since. I realize she's been trying to raise her daughter durring that time and may have put the acting career on the back burner to be a mom, but because she burned her bridges there, I don't see her getting nearly the quality of projects like BB, in the future. She has a few upcoming projects coming up, both are pretty low on the radar.

yea, she's pretty much done for

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

They are at minimum 2 million lower for TF2 and at minimum 4.5 million lower for TDK and 2.5 million lower for TF1. Here's the top 100 in North America as of January 2010. Note that titles in red were new additions to the chart and titles in bold had updated numbers from the previous chart:

Top 100 DVD Sales Of All Time

* as of 10 January 2010


1 1 FINDING NEMO Animated 23.600.000
2 2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL J. Depp 21.500.000
3 3 SHREK 2 Animated 20.400.000
4 5 THE DARK KNIGHT Christian Bale, Michael Caine 18.793.000
5 6 TRANSFORMERS Shia LaBoeuf, Tyrese Gibson 18.270.000
6 4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST Johnny Depp 17.383.000
7 9 CARS Animated 16.185.000
8 7 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING Elijah Wood 16.000.000
9 8 THE INCREDIBLES Animated 15.600.000
10 10 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS Elijah Wood 14.930.000
11 11 SPIDER-MAN Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 14.769.000
12 12 THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH.. Georgie Henley 14.725.000
13 13 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Johnny Depp 14.197.000
14 18 HAPPY FEET Animated 14.180.000
15 21 THE POLAR EXPRESS Tom Hanks 13.932.000
16 14 300 Gerard Butler, Lena Headey 13.900.000
17 15 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING Elijah Wood 13.800.000
18 16 RATATOUILLE Animated 13.500.000
19 17 SHREK Animated 13.500.000
20 20 IRON MAN Robert Downey Jr, Terrence Howard 13.300.000
21 23 MONSTERS, INC. Animated 13.272.000
22 19 MADAGASCAR Animated 13.200.000
23 22 SHREK THE THIRD Animated 12.700.000
24 24 HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE Daniel Radcliffe 12.600.000
25 26 HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE Daniel Radcliffe 12.400.000
26 25 THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST Jim Caviezel, Luca Lionello 12.040.000
27 27 SPIDER-MAN 2 Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 11.723.000
28 30 HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF PHOENIX Daniel Radcliffe 11.637.000
29 28 HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN Daniel Radcliffe 11.600.000
30 51 TWILIGHT Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson 11.588.000
31 NE TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox 11.520.000
32 29 THE MATRIX Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 11.000.000
33 31 HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS Daniel Radcliffe 10.900.000
34 32 BATMAN BEGINS Christian Bale, Liam Neeson 10.810.000
35 35 THE NOTEBOOK Ryan Gosling, Rachel McAdams 10.680.000
36 33 STAR WARS: EPISODE II - ATTACK OF THE CLONES Ewan McGregor 10.500.000
37 34 WALL-E Animated 10.400.000
38 36 STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH Hayden Christensen 9.850.000
39 37 ICE AGE Animated 9.500.000
40 48 MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING Nia Vardalos, John Corbett 9.470.000
41 NE UP Animated 9.433.000
42 38 PEARL HARBOR Ben Affleck, Kate Beckinsale 9.400.000
43 39 SHARK TALE Animated 9.400.000
44 40 KUNG FU PANDA Animated 9.335.000
45 41 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM Ben Stiller, Carla Gugino 9.300.000
46 44 ICE AGE 2: THE MELTDOWN Animated 9.289.000
47 NE THE HANGOVER Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms 9.121.000
48 42 NATIONAL TREASURE Nicolas Cage, Jon Voight 8.960.000
49 43 THE DEPARTED Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon 8.940.000
50 45 THE MATRIX RELOADED Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 8.800.000
51 46 ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS Jason Lee, David Cross 8.655.000
52 47 OVER THE HEDGE Animated 8.625.000
53 49 I AM LEGEND Will Smith, Alice Braga 8.600.000
54 50 THE 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN Steve Carell, Catherine Keener 8.600.000
55 NE HARRY POTTER AND THE HALF-BLOOD PRINCE Daniel Radcliffe 8.580.000
56 52 SPIDER-MAN 3 Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 8.400.000
57 61 ELF Will Ferrell, Andy Richter 8.395.000
58 56 THE FAST AND THE FURIOUS Paul Walker, Vin Diesel 8.300.000
59 53 STAR WARS: EPISODE I - THE PHANTOM MENACE Liam Neeson 8.265.000
60 82 MADAGASCAR: ESCAPE 2 AFRICA Animated 8.190.000
61 NE STAR TREK Chris Pine, Zachary Quinto 8.059.000
62 54 THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM Matt Damon, Julia Stiles 8.033.000
63 55 THE LION KING Animated 8.000.000
64 66 MAMMA MIA - THE MOVIE Meryl Streep, Pierce Brosnan 7.970.000
65 NE SNOW WHITE AND THE SEVEN DWARFS Animated 7.929.000
66 68 GLADIATOR Russell Crowe 7.800.000
67 57 KING KONG Jack Black, Naomi Watts 7.800.000
68 58 MEET THE FOCKERS Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller 7.800.000
69 60 STAR WARS TRILOGY Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford 7.700.000
70 59 THE BOURNE IDENTITY Matt Damon, Franka Potente 7.700.000
71 63 LILO & STITCH Animated 7.600.000
72 62 THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW Dennis Quaid, Jake Gyllenhaal 7.600.000
73 64 WALK THE LINE Joaquin Phoenix, Reese Witherspoon 7.500.000
74 65 THE BOURNE SUPREMACY Matt Damon 7.350.000
75 93 TROY Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom 7.346.000
76 69 MR. AND MRS. SMITH Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie 7.300.000
77 70 NAPOLEON DYNAMITE Jon Heder 7.300.000
78 67 THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway 7.300.000
79 71 THE SIMPSONS MOVIE Animated 7.250.000
80 92 THE DA VINCI CODE Tom Hanks, Audrey Tautou 7.230.000
81 72 WEDDING CRASHERS Owen Wilson, Vince Vaughn 7.210.000
82 75 CASINO ROYALE Daniel Craig, Eva Green 7.200.000
83 74 NATIONAL TREASURE 2: BOOK OF SECRETS Nicolas Cage 7.200.000
84 73 SUPERBAD Jonah Hill, Michael Cera 7.200.000
85 76 FANTASTIC FOUR Chris Evans, Jessica Alba 7.110.000
86 77 INDIANA JONES & THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL Harrison Ford 7.080.000
87 78 AUSTIN POWERS IN GOLDMEMBER Mike Myers, Beyonce Knowles 7.074.000
88 79 THE LITTLE MERMAID Animated 7.030.000
89 81 SEABISCUIT Jeff Bridges, Tobey McGuire 6.900.000
90 80 TALLADEGA NIGHTS: THE BALLAD OF RICKY BOBBY Will Ferrell 6.900.000
91 83 CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY Johnny Depp 6.800.000
92 85 ENCHANTED Patrick Dempsey, Amy Adams 6.800.000
93 84 XXX Vin Diesel 6.800.000
94 91 BEE MOVIE Animated 6.750.000
95 86 WAR OF THE WORLDS Tom Cruise, Dakota Fanning 6.630.000
96 87 RAY Jamie Foxx 6.600.000
97 88 WILD HOGS Tim Allen, John Travolta 6.520.000
98 89 HITCH Will Smith 6.500.000
99 90 THE LION KING 1½ Animated 6.500.000
100 94 OPEN SEASON Animated 6.400.000
100 95 SIGNS Mel Gibson, Joaquin Phoenix 6.400.000
100 96 THE MATRIX REVOLUTIONS Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 6.400.000


Here is where he posted it under the name "Adam Strange" at Box Office Mojo:

http://boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewtopic.htm?t=81566&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=270


He originally started posting these figures on another forum:

http://www.ukmix.org/forums/viewtopic.php?t=60990&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0

If you look through that thread, you will see him answering people's requests for numbers on a bunch of different movies.

He eventually got tired of people bugging him about The-Numbers.com, so he stopped posting at Box Office Mojo, although he did post today:

Interesting stuff, thanks, but this doesnt disprove my point that the ROTF DVD sold very well, so it wasnt as disliked as people make out, it did very well on BD too I believe. People wouldnt have bought the BD/DVD if they thought the movie was crap.

Back to Iron Man 2 though, I was just checking the screen count on BOmojo and IM2 barely made over $500,000 more than Robin Hood on Wednesday despite having nearly 1000 more screens. This isnt looking good IMO, its just not having the legs of IM1 at all.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Interesting stuff, thanks, but this doesnt disprove my point that the ROTF DVD sold very well, so it wasnt as disliked as people make out, it did very well on BD too I believe. People wouldnt have bought the BD/DVD if they thought the movie was crap.

TF2 did very well, but it did drop quite a bit in units sold from TF1.

Back to Iron Man 2 though, I was just checking the screen count on BOmojo and IM2 barely made over $500,000 more than Robin Hood on Wednesday despite having nearly 1000 more screens. This isnt looking good IMO, its just not having the legs of IM1 at all.

You mean theater count, not screen count. Screen count is much bigger than that. For instance, IM2 opened in 4,380 theaters on roughly 10,000 screens. Robin Hood opened in 3,503 theaters on 5,700 screens. IM2's theater count went up to 4,390 during its second weekend but the screen count stayed around 10,000:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2778&p=.htm

Plunging 59 percent, Iron Man 2 collected $52 million on nearly 10,000 screens at 4,390 theaters.

Marketed as if it were Gladiator 2 albeit with less verve, Robin Hood showed nary a quiver with $36.1 million on approximately 5,700 screens at 3,503 locations.

 

[Tony Stark]

You say all this, but the kiddies alone didnt give the movie the amazing DVD sales it had/has. ROTF only sold $17 million less in DVD sales than TDK, and this was in a year when Blu-ray became a lot more prominent than 2008, so in total on BD and DVD, the movie has surpassed TDK for income.

I was going to respond to this, but redfirebird beat me to the punch. It's not even close to TDK, and it's not that far ahead of Star Trek considering TF2 had about a month's advance on the DVD release over Star Trek.

Perhaps you were thinking of TF1.

Anyway, I know very few people who liked TF2 and the internet reviews reflect that view. It did make a lot of money. Some times crappy movies make alot of money. I remember that being the case for Independance Day, which at the time was the highest grossing release that year.

 

[redfirebird2008]

As expected, IM2 made around $3m on Thursday. It lost another $2.1m to Alice in Wonderland. The Thursday-to-Thursday drop of 52% is pretty good compared to some of its other drops this week (high 50% area, even into the 60% area).

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If it has the same weekend multiplier that it had last weekend it will make about 24.6mil this weekend. Which would be a drop of nearly 53% but I'm going to give it a better multiplier with my predictions.

1. Shrek 4: 105mil. It looks like s**t but 3D ticket prices will help, I wouldn't be surprised if it opened higher or lower to be honest.

2. Iron Man 2: 25.5mil-51% The studio could totally lie for it but I still don't think that it's going to be a 40% drop lie. Also I really wouldn't be surprised if it had a 46 to 48% drop, I'm actually expecting it to do better than my prediction. I'm expecting a 7 to 7.7mil friday.

3. Robin Hood: 20.2mil-44% It's an adult movie that opened to lame numbers, I don't see a huge drop off.

4. MacGruber: 12.5mil SNL movie never do big business. This movie is getting good reviews but I just don't see it getting over 15mil. Watch me be wrong after the numbers come out.

 

[TheVileOne]

I see all these as positive numbers for Iron Man 2. It breaks over $230 million today. After Memorial Day weekend it will draw ever close to $300 million.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Actually another 50+% drop isn't positive but to be fair it wouldn't be surprising either because thats what most think that it will do. 300mil will be hard to get if the movie keeps dropping 50%. Ofcourse it won't keep dropping 50% because most blockbusters eventually stablize and this movie doesn't have Hulk style word of mouth. I'm going to be really curious to see what the early friday estimates are at like 3 to 4am. Under 7mil friday would be bad only because it would be headed for a 54/55% drop most likely and probably an under 300mil close. But again, I just don't don't see that happening as I see 8mil as a more likely number than 6.5mil.

 

[Tony Stark]

From the way they're talking on teh BOM forums, Shrek looks like it's dropping down to 70 mil. McGruber is tracking at 5m for the weekend! So not a good weekend at all for BO, not sure if this will draw more for IM2, but Shrek looks to be the first bomb of the summer considering it should be doing awesome with the 3D.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Oh totally. After reading those boards I'm totally not confident in my Shrek 4 prediction. I don't think that it will help IM2 too much though because the weekday numbers just seem to point to it dropping in the high 40 percents to the low 50 percents and IM2 dropped 59% when it was going up against 36.1mil Robin Hood, even if Shrek's misses my prediction surely it still opens with twice as much as Robin Hood and that 70mil will still be more comp than it had last weekend.

 

[Tony Stark]

It seems to be trending ahead of SM3's which was 50.1 % in it's third weekend, so I hope the drop is in the 48% range. I guess we'll see.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's not trending ahead in terms of dollars though.

At the same point in their runs:

Spider-Man 3: 253.4

Iron Man 2: 224.7mil

If it follows last weekend's Thrusday to Friday bump it won't be jumping as high as Spider-Man 3 did or Iron Man for that matter. Plus it's Saturday to Sunday drops have been heavier than both Iron Man and Spider-Man 3. It's still tracking behind Alice which made 331.6mil so it making a couple of thousand more than SM3 on a comparable Thrusday doesn't mean that it will outgross it overall.

My opinion will change if the movie went up 165 to 175% on friday. I'm seeing around 160% at best though.

IM2's Thrusday was lower than the first movie's by a couple of 100 thousand BTW. IM2 still has quite the lead over IM which had 191.3mil at the same point but it's lead will start to shrink as the days pass.

 

[Tony Stark]

I meant percentage drop wise.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I meant percentage drop wise.

Yep, it's right around 4% ahead of SM3's legs right now, which would mean 96% of SM3's 50% drop. That would be a 48% drop for IM2. I'm hoping it can start pulling further ahead of SM3's legs though.

Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see what happens to Shrek. Sounds like under $90m for sure even with the 25% boost from 3D.