Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[JeetKuneDo]

You have something to back this up? What could have possibly changed in the piracy field, between now and last year? C'mon son.

I cannot wait for the next big blockbuster to come rolling around. It'll once again hush up those that think people aren't going to movies anymore.

Here's the proof: A year has gone by. Just like everything else, it's gets easier and easier to get your hands on a movie as time goes by. More people are doing it this year than last year.

That's what happened with CD sales. It didn't happen all at once. It got worse every year with piracy until people just stopped buying CDs.

The econ isn't hurting the boxoffice, unappealing looking movies are. Karate Kid had great advertising and buzz and made more than it's budget it's opening weekend. It did great. That shows that if people want to see a movie they will go see it.

Still don't see IM2 reaching 320mil. It's dropping too much and it's dropping too many theaters. I could be wrong but I just don't see it.

Back in wacky-land. A description of "great" for a movie that made 55 million OW. That tepid opening is somehow proof that people are flocking to movie theaters?

Then the next paragraph features a negative spin on a movie that just passed 300 million domestic and has already made more than the first movie made.

I noticed in a recent boxofficemojo article talking about international figures they said that it was looking 'less and less likely' that IM2 would surpass it's predecessor's domestic amount. I guess even if it does it'll probably take so long most of us won't be posting here anymore.

Lucky for IM2 they actually count every country on the planet. One wonders just how big the egos can get in the USA.

 

[hatebox]

^ Nice try, but I'm British. And the US still matters because it's not like IM2 did that well internationally. In fact the difference to the first intl numbers is barely above inflation and exchange rates.

 

[Anita18]

Lucky for IM2 they actually count every country on the planet. One wonders just how big the egos can get in the USA.

What's amusing is that international box office never really seems to be a big deal here EXCEPT for IM2.

 

[Iron_Stark]

The econ isn't hurting the boxoffice, unappealing looking movies are. Karate Kid had great advertising and buzz and made more than it's budget it's opening weekend. It did great. That shows that if people want to see a movie they will go see it.

Still don't see IM2 reaching 320mil. It's dropping too much and it's dropping too many theaters. I could be wrong but I just don't see it.

lmao. A terrible s***fest like that with a mediocre opening "did great" yet Iron Man 2 who beat it's predecessor and just crossed 300 mil isn't doing all that well according to you and others??

I bet that movie won't make it past 100 million or just barely does. Then we'll see how "great" it does.

 

[Iron_Stark]

What's amusing is that international box office never really seems to be a big deal here EXCEPT for IM2.

What's even more amusing is all the arm chair analysts that that never posted on this board before the movie was even released seem to flock over here and sully this place with their negativity.

 

[Anita18]

What's even more amusing is all the arm chair analysts that that never posted on this board before the movie was even released seem to flock over here and sully this place with their negativity.

So only people who carefully followed IM2's production are allowed in this thread, huh?

 

[Iron_Stark]

So only people who carefully followed IM2's production are allowed in this thread, huh?

No, by all means continue.

I like getting a kick from all the arm chair analysts and experts that think this movie is some sort of disappointment.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

^ Nice try, but I'm British. And the US still matters because it's not like IM2 did that well internationally. In fact the difference to the first intl numbers is barely above inflation and exchange rates.

Clever spin (giving you all the best of it here...possibly not that clever). "Barely above inflation and exchange rates". In other words ladies and gentlemen, IM2 has sold more international tickets than IM2, barely into its 5th week. Despite what happened to Spider-Man 2, this is somehow a colossal failure.

Also to combat the other spin, no one said "The US doesn't matter"....what was said is "the US isn't the only country that matters".

What's amusing is that international box office never really seems to be a big deal here EXCEPT for IM2.

If that's true, are you suggesting that isn't an improved way to look at it? Maybe it's time we stopped pretending there is only one country on the planet. Let's just say IM2 is the groundbreaking film on changing that attitude.

 

[Iron_Stark]

What I also find amusing is that Iron Man's the most successful Marvel character behind Spider-Man, yet this is a disappointment of a movie.

And its also the third most successful comic character behind Spider-Man and Batman, which are established icons, and did I mention it took one of those 6 tries before it broke the 300 million (dom.) mark. Something IM did in it's first try and did it again.

Yeah we should really be worried about the direction of this franchise.

 

[Anita18]

If that's true, are you suggesting that isn't an improved way to look at it? Maybe it's time we stopped pretending there is only one country on the planet. Let's just say IM2 is the groundbreaking film on changing that attitude.

I like the way you think.

 

[Crook]

Here's the proof: A year has gone by. Just like everything else, it's gets easier and easier to get your hands on a movie as time goes by. More people are doing it this year than last year.

That's what happened with CD sales. It didn't happen all at once. It got worse every year with piracy until people just stopped buying CDs.

Overall, it's remained pretty constant over the last 2 years. There will be spikes for certain movies, of course. Avatar and TDK I believe have the highest pirated copies so far, and as we all know that did nothing to stop them from being blockbuster successes. Piracy is a weak argument because there will continue to be massive successes year after year. If it's a movie people really want to see, they'll go out for the theater experience instead of opting for a bootleg. Notice how it's never brought up when referring to a box office success. Doesn't that indicate a fallacy?

 

[Figs]

The econ isn't hurting the boxoffice, unappealing looking movies are. Karate Kid had great advertising and buzz and made more than it's budget it's opening weekend. It did great. That shows that if people want to see a movie they will go see it.

This

There really hasn't been that many good movies out this year. My sights are set on Inception.

Predators looks promising as far as a Predator film can be and just for the sake of growing up with 80's action films i'm definitely going to see The Expendables...even though it won't technically be a "good film" for the most part. I hope 2011 and 2012 make up for 2009 and 2010.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Overall, it's remained pretty constant over the last 2 years. There will be spikes for certain movies, of course. Avatar and TDK I believe have the highest pirated copies so far, and as we all know that did nothing to stop them from being blockbuster successes. Piracy is a weak argument because there will continue to be massive successes year after year. If it's a movie people really want to see, they'll go out for the theater experience instead of opting for a bootleg. Notice how it's never brought up when referring to a box office success. Doesn't that indicate a fallacy?

I don't think it will stop a movie from being a box office success. Witness IM2's success this summer. But there is no doubt it is and will continue to get worse every year. Piracy is worse this year than last and will be even worse next year. I personally never knew anyone that actually had DVD copies of just released movies until this year. This will cut into the numbers slowly but surely. DVD sales are going to take a hit. Check out the Billboard charts for the damage bootlegging does. A "#1 hit" today would not get into the top 20 10 years ago.

Surely you don't believe piracy instantly reached its peak and won't get worse?

It's pretty clear why Avatar did so well....you had to see that in theaters for the visuals. Same with Alice in Wonderland. I hate to say it...but a 3D release may be the only defense. ..And I'm freaking tired of 3D.

 

[Crook]

I don't think it will stop a movie from being a box office success. Witness IM2's success this summer. But there is no doubt it is and will continue to get worse every year. Piracy is worse this year than last and will be even worse next year. I personally never knew anyone that actually had DVD copies of just released movies until this year. This will cut into the numbers slowly but surely. DVD sales are going to take a hit. Check out the Billboard charts for the damage bootlegging does. A "#1 hit" today would not get into the top 20 10 years ago.

The medium evolves, the studio has to deal with it. They had to battle the advent of television, the home video market, and now piracy. Hollywood will always point fingers at others for their failures, it's nothing new.

Surely you don't believe piracy instantly reached its peak and won't get worse?

Never said that, but piracy will never stop content that people want to experience the legit way. This goes for movies and music. RIAA has been making such a fuss over MP3 downloads destroying their disc sales, and just last year Susan Boyle broke records with her platinum-selling debut. Big surprise, no one ever talks about bootlegging if someone overcomes the hurdle.

Piracy only hurts products that don't come off as must-haves. I'll give it that. But the big dogs...no. There's just no excuse. They have the budgets, star power, and studio marketing to help push them to the viewers. The audience decides with their pockets.

It's pretty clear why Avatar did so well....you had to see that in theaters for the visuals. Same with Alice in Wonderland. I hate to say it...but a 3D release may be the only defense. ..And I'm freaking tired of 3D.

And what happens when the inevitable 2D successes start popping up again? Surely you don't think 3D/IMAX will be the only means of gaining huge bucks.

 

[lespaul59]

As long as a movie is close to or as good looking as Avatar was I don't mind 3D. Well I actually like it a lot. But just like anything else there is good and bad. Also I thought watching Avatar at home on Blu Ray was just as good as watching in 3D because the colors where amazing so I didn't miss the 3D at all. If they start churning out a bunch of ok looking 3D movies and not so great conversions then the 3D craze will slow down.

 

[hatebox]

Clever spin (giving you all the best of it here...possibly not that clever). "Barely above inflation and exchange rates". In other words ladies and gentlemen, IM2 has sold more international tickets than IM2, barely into its 5th week. Despite what happened to Spider-Man 2, this is somehow a colossal failure.

Well, actually it's currently sold about the same number of tickets (hence the INFLATION part, which doesn't just happen in America).

Don't forget IM2 has been out about 3 weeks longer in most intl territories than in the US - the well is totally dry now.

You're the one who seems to be 'spinning' it that everyone here's painting a massively negative picture of this movie's performance, when in truth people are just stating the obvious - it's neither a smash hit or a flop.

 

[hatebox]

What's even more amusing is all the arm chair analysts that that never posted on this board before the movie was even released seem to flock over here and sully this place with their negativity.

I'm here because I like to discuss box office. I didn't folllow Fantastic Four 2's development at all but still kicked around the box office thread for a few days. No big deal.

 

[Iron_Stark]

The medium evolves, the studio has to deal with it. They had to battle the advent of television, the home video market, and now piracy. Hollywood will always point fingers at others for their failures, it's nothing new.


Never said that, but piracy will never stop content that people want to experience the legit way. This goes for movies and music. RIAA has been making such a fuss over MP3 downloads destroying their disc sales, and just last year Susan Boyle broke records with her platinum-selling debut. Big surprise, no one ever talks about bootlegging if someone overcomes the hurdle.

Piracy only hurts products that don't come off as must-haves. I'll give it that. But the big dogs...no. There's just no excuse. They have the budgets, star power, and studio marketing to help push them to the viewers. The audience decides with their pockets.


And what happens when the inevitable 2D successes start popping up again? Surely you don't think 3D/IMAX will be the only means of gaining huge bucks.

I really doubt the people that bought Susan Boyle CDs even know how to pirate her music to begin with.

 

[Tony Stark]

Never said that, but piracy will never stop content that people want to experience the legit way. This goes for movies and music. RIAA has been making such a fuss over MP3 downloads destroying their disc sales, and just last year Susan Boyle broke records with her platinum-selling debut. Big surprise, no one ever talks about bootlegging if someone overcomes the hurdle.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

The medium evolves, the studio has to deal with it. They had to battle the advent of television, the home video market, and now piracy. Hollywood will always point fingers at others for their failures, it's nothing new.

You aren't claiming TV and the home video market didn't have a negative effect on theater movies as well are you?

Never said that, but piracy will never stop content that people want to experience the legit way. This goes for movies and music. RIAA has been making such a fuss over MP3 downloads destroying their disc sales, and just last year Susan Boyle broke records with her platinum-selling debut. Big surprise, no one ever talks about bootlegging if someone overcomes the hurdle.

You actually are unaware of the dramatic decline in CD sales over the past 10 years?

And what happens when the inevitable 2D successes start popping up again? Surely you don't think 3D/IMAX will be the only means of gaining huge bucks.

Dude...IM2 is a 2D success. Even Box Office Mojo says so.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Well, actually it's currently sold about the same number of tickets (hence the INFLATION part, which doesn't just happen in America).

Don't forget IM2 has been out about 3 weeks longer in most intl territories than in the US - the well is totally dry now.

You're the one who seems to be 'spinning' it that everyone here's painting a massively negative picture of this movie's performance, when in truth people are just stating the obvious - it's neither a smash hit or a flop.

Sweet...no one is trying to say it's "disappointing"?

It is just as much of a smash hit as the first one obviously. (assuming you believe the first one was a smash hit) I don't know a better way to describe a 600+ million grosser.

 

[Marvin]

why did they not rush out a 3D transfer like the did with clash?

 

[Crook]

I really doubt the people that bought Susan Boyle CDs even know how to pirate her music to begin with.

I used Susan as an example because she's the newest artist to hit it big. But fine, you want more examples? Lil Wayne, Black Eyed Peas, Jay-Z, Carrie Underwood, Lady Gaga, they've all reached platinum status with their recent albums. I certainly wouldn't say their audiences are of the senior-type, who don't download as much. Disc sales aren't the only means of these artists to get money. Music has successfully transitioned into the digital era. MP3s can coincide with physical CDs now.

You aren't claiming TV and the home video market didn't have a negative effect on theater movies as well are you?

They did, and currently are, though at a much more stable rate as it's an accepted commodity within the industry.

You actually are unaware of the dramatic decline in CD sales over the past 10 years?

You are aware this is 2010 and there are legit ways to buy music without CDs? You seem to be glossing over my position that the big, marketable byproducts of the industry are consistently safe from piracy. To deny such a fact would mean there will never be platinum-selling musical acts from now on, or there won't be movies grossing north of half a billion. That is why the economy angle is so weak to bring forth with a studio tentpole. If next month another studio tentpole straight-up demolishes competition, what is the excuse? There is none.

Dude...IM2 is a 2D success. Even Box Office Mojo says so.

Moderate success. I'm referring to successes that meet or exceed expectations. I'm referring to movies who won't have discussions such as these existing, because the gross profit is far too great to even consider such factors an issue.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

You are aware this is 2010 and there are legit ways to buy music without CDs? You seem to be glossing over my position that the big, marketable byproducts of the industry are consistently safe from piracy. To deny such a fact would mean there will never be platinum-selling musical acts from now on, or there won't be movies grossing north of half a billion. That is why the economy angle is so weak to bring forth with a studio tentpole. If next month another studio tentpole straight-up demolishes competition, what is the excuse? There is none.

I'm aware of the fact that recording artists don't make near the money they used to make. Touring is now the way to make money. You won't see an album by a relatively minor act like Heart in the 80s having an album go 5x Platinum. Now you would see it go platinum once and be cited by you as proof that nothing is amiss.

Moderate success. I'm referring to successes that meet or exceed expectations. I'm referring to movies who won't have discussions such as these existing, because the gross profit is far too great to even consider such factors an issue.

Great success. 600 million. The numbers don't lie. "Expectations" don't change numbers. "Expectations" don't change the number of butts in seats. 600 million doesn't change to 200 million because of something as insubstantial as "expectations". One butt in one seat always equals one butt in one seat. The first IM movie was a great success so that means another movie with those same numbers is also a great success.

I think Box Office Mojo put it very well:

The first Iron Man took eight more days than Iron Man 2 to reach $300 million, and Iron Man 2 has made around $10 million more through the same point in time. However, this gap has been steadily narrowing over the past few weeks as Iron Man 2 has experienced steeper declines, and if it matches Iron Man's daily drops from here on it will fall just short of the original's $318.6 million total. Still, Iron Man 2 has already passed Iron Man's foreign total as well as its worldwide (domestic plus foreign) sum, so one cannot objectively classify it as a box office disappointment in relation to its predecessor.

So let the talk of "disappointment" cease.

 

[Crook]

I'm aware of the fact that recording artists don't make near the money they used to make. Touring is now the way to make money. You won't see an album by a relatively minor act like Heart in the 80s having an album go 5x Platinum. Now you would see it go platinum once and be cited by you as proof that nothing is amiss.

There is no such thing as a minor act selling 5X Platinum. You cease to be minor the moment you sell big. The biggest selling albums of the past three years were 5X (Josh Groban), 3X (Lil Wayne), and 6X Platinum (Taylor Swift). Evidently artists are still capable of doing big numbers, as my entire point was this whole time.

Great success. 600 million. The numbers don't lie. "Expectations" don't change numbers. "Expectations" don't change the number of butts in seats. 600 million doesn't change to 200 million because of something as insubstantial as "expectations". One butt in one seat always equals one butt in one seat. The first IM movie was a great success so that means another movie with those same numbers is also a great success.

I think Box Office Mojo put it very well:

So let the talk of "disappointment" cease.

No one is denying the numbers. But it's absolutely foolish to deny expectations as well. That is entirely how a film's success is gauged; relative to how one (be it an individual or a studio) expects the film to make. This "talk" even taking place speaks for itself. Why does it exist? Do you think people picked IM2 out of a hat, so they could pick on something?