Iron Man 2 The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iron_Stark]

In what world is it not a hit with those numbers vs. the expectations it had

Well let me revise what I said.

It's a sad SAD state of affairs when garbage like Karate Kid can make the money it's making.

This will always be anecdotal: if my friends say they hated it I'll say WOM is bad, if your friends liked it you'll say WOM was good.

What we can agree on is that if IM2 did have great WOM it didn't translate into great box office legs. Not like its predecessor.

wtf are you talking about, it's making about the same money as the first.

Lay off the hater-aid.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

$610,318,350 as of Tue.

 

[Iron_Stark]

$610,318,350 as of Tue.

ouch, such a mediocre failure.

 

[souvlaki]

wtf are you talking about, it's making about the same money as the first.

Lay off the hater-aid.

Iron Man 2 had a huge head start though. It made $30 million more just in it's opening weekend and is still likely going to finish behind the first movie domestically. Taking this into account if it's legs were even close to as good as the first movie it would have outgrossed the first domestically a while ago.

 

[hatebox]

^ Thanks, saved me having to write just that.

 

[Iron_Stark]

oh for the love of christ. Are you guys still on this!? IM2 will end up making pretty much the same amount of money as the first movie, domestically, so word of mouth really wasn't all that different. It did much better internationally, so it's a success on that front.

And Spidey, if you thought IM2 sucked so bad----why have you been posting on here all this time?

They're here still trying to convince themselves this was some sort of failure.

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

^that depends on your (or actually, Marvel's) definition of failure and what they were trying to accomplish

if they were trying to gain additional fans and surpass its predecessor, then yes, it was a failure, as it clearly did not do that

but if all they were trying to do was get the same results as the first, then it was a success

so it's either or, depending on Marvel's mindstate (not the fans)

 

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

^that depends on your (or actually, Marvel's) definition of failure and what they were trying to accomplish

if they were trying to gain additional fans and surpass its predecessor, then yes, it was a failure, as it clearly did not do that

but if all they were trying to do was get the same results as the first, then it was a success

so it's either or, depending on Marvel's mindstate (not the fans)

 

[JeetKuneDo]

^that depends on your (or actually, Marvel's) definition of failure and what they were trying to accomplish

if they were trying to gain additional fans and surpass its predecessor, then yes, it was a failure, as it clearly did not do that

but if all they were trying to do was get the same results as the first, then it was a success

so it's either or, depending on Marvel's mindstate (not the fans)

So we, as movie-goers and fans...have to pretend we work for the studio? We aren't allowed to look at it as movie-goers and fans?

Does that mean studio execs aren't allowed to look at it as a studio exec? (Seems to follow the same logic)

As a movie-goer, the first was considered a great success...so this one got the same result. (actually a bit better: $610,493,516 as of Wednesday to IM1's $585,174,222)

 

[danoyse]

Well let me revise what I said.

It's a sad SAD state of affairs when garbage like Karate Kid can make the money it's making.




wtf are you talking about, it's making about the same money as the first.

Lay off the hater-aid.

Lay off the attitude. If you can't handle the box office discussion, stay out of this thread.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Lay off the attitude. If you can't handle the box office discussion, stay out of this thread.

I wasn't even copping an attitude.

 

[hatebox]

I think what he meant was that calling people 'haters' is not conducive to decent discussion.

Anyway, TS3 is expected to cruise past $300m by the end of the weekend, and Last Airbender looks to do somehwere in the $50-$60m range over the same period.

 

[Evil Twin]

IM2 drops to 522 screens this weekend, domestic. IM1 was still holding over 1,300 screens at this point. And IM2's daily lead was about a million. So, you can practically call it that IM2 isn't going to match IM1's domestic total.

But, it held it's audience. And if it was more frontloaded, then that's typical of sequels. And it did better overseas. We can go over a long string of box office disasters and disappointments this Summer, and IM2 doesn't belong.

Perhaps it puts a little bit of a damper on expectations for The Avengers, but that's probably a good thing for Marvel.

 

[Tony Stark]

Avengers is totally dependent on how Thor and Cap are perceived. If those movies bomb, they might scrap Avengers all together. I don't think Iron Man alone could carry the weight for Avengers by itself.

 

[danoyse]

I think what he meant was that calling people 'haters' is not conducive to decent discussion.

She, actually...but that's exactly what I meant.

Iron_Stark, no one here is being a hater. They're just discussing the box office. If you don't like the way the conversation is going, go to another thread. There's "hating" going on here.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Avengers is totally dependent on how Thor and Cap are perceived. If those movies bomb, they might scrap Avengers all together. I don't think Iron Man alone could carry the weight for Avengers by itself.

I don't think Thor and Cap are going to bomb, but it's a big possibility they're going to hover just above the break even level. If that's so, I think they're going to push the script as if Avengers is Iron Man 3 or work with Fox to nab Dr Doom as the villain.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Avengers is totally dependent on how Thor and Cap are perceived. If those movies bomb, they might scrap Avengers all together. I don't think Iron Man alone could carry the weight for Avengers by itself.

Avengers isn't getting scrapped for anything. Filming begins early next year before Thor and Cap are released.

Also, I doubt Thor and Cap bomb.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Avengers isn't getting scrapped for anything. Filming begins early next year before Thor and Cap are released.

Also, I doubt Thor and Cap bomb.

I do wonder how well Thor and Cap will do. I was more excited for Thor due to the excellent casting and Director...but that costume looks scary bad to me...I hope it looks better in the movie. Something like that can kill a movie.

The involvement of Joss Whedon has me more hopeful than I was for Cap....but I still worry about Joe Johnston. He has made some "good" movies...but never a "great" movie. Cap will live and die on the story. Effects can't carry the day like a Transformers movie or Avatar. This one could go either way.

 

[Spider-Vader]

I don't think Thor and Cap are going to bomb, but it's a big possibility they're going to hover just above the break even level. If that's so, I think they're going to push the script as if Avengers is Iron Man 3 or work with Fox to nab Dr Doom as the villain.

Don't give me such ideas that won't happen for atleast 20 years!

A comic accurate Dr. Doom taking on the Avengers, would be so f***ing epic.

 

[ElMariachi]

^that depends on your (or actually, Marvel's) definition of failure and what they were trying to accomplish

if they were trying to gain additional fans and surpass its predecessor, then yes, it was a failure, as it clearly did not do that

but if all they were trying to do was get the same results as the first, then it was a success

so it's either or, depending on Marvel's mindstate (not the fans)

they did gain additional fans and it did surpass it's predecessor. Are you guys forgetting that there is something called the rest of the planet earth and a total box office? Sure, they don't make as much money from international box offices as they do domestically, but it still was a huge improvement on that front.

And the movie did do well domestically, just a hair short of the first movie probally by the end of it's run. Which of course, should be a positive thing considering how s---ty the economy is, how IM2 wasn't a kids movie (not in the least bit), there wasn't any 3D (which boosted every movies revenue that had it), and the reviewers went out of their way to hate on this movie. Oh, and the fact that Marvel basically took a B-list superhero and now has a moneymaking A-list character. Spiderman 2 made $30 million less, domestically, then the first--I wouldn't consider that a failure. I am sure I could say the same about the Harry Potter movies or both Star Wars trilogies.


As for Iron Stark, I don't see what he said wrong. I think it's been quite obvious that people have been hating on this movie and hoping it would fail.

 

[Evil Twin]

Avengers is totally dependent on how Thor and Cap are perceived. If those movies bomb, they might scrap Avengers all together. I don't think Iron Man alone could carry the weight for Avengers by itself.

I think Avengers is definitely a go. What I was getting at was that Marvel's probably not going to spend $300 million on the production budget based on IM2 results, and instead be more in the low $200 million range.

FWIW, IM2 fell behind the domestic pace of IM1 over the weekend. After 59 days, IM1 made $309,179,318 compared to the estimated total of $308,241,000 for IM2. IM2 probably gets over $310 million as its last domestic milestone.

 

[Tony Stark]

They were never going to spend 300 million on IM3 regardless. There are very select few movies that get that kind of treatment.

I expect IM3 will get the same budget as this one. The movie that might get upped is Avengers if they choose to film in 3D.

Marvel has been pretty smart about managing the budgets of these films. Like I've said before 200 mil for IM is not bad considering what an effects laden film it was, and the increases to Downey and Paltrow.

 

[Evil Twin]

They were never going to spend 300 million on IM3 regardless. There are very select few movies that get that kind of treatment.

I expect IM3 will get the same budget as this one. The movie that might get upped is Avengers if they choose to film in 3D.

Marvel has been pretty smart about managing the budgets of these films. Like I've said before 200 mil for IM is not bad considering what an effects laden film it was, and the increases to Downey and Paltrow.

I was talking about Marvel keeping their expectations in check for Avengers, given Iron Man apparently finding it's ceiling, large overlap in fandom among the potential franchises, Captain America and Thor being unproven at present, and Hulk struggling to find a movie formula that works. Heck, the buildup to The Avengers apparently had no effect on IM2.

I tend to think that Marvel's going to budget The Avengers like it's IM3, with a budget in the lower $200 million range. I do think it's likely that they will go 3D, but I also think a whole bunch of unimpressive 3D has the format rapidly losing its luster.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I will say this again...I never said that the film was a boxoffice failure. Hell Superman Returns wasn't a boxoffice failure. I called the movie a hit, a hit movie with lukewarm word of mouth but a hit. Not really comparing because the movie wasn't awful but Spider-Man 3 made 890mil worldwide and most people hated it. The next Spider-Man movie directed by Raimi or not will be hurt by the toxic word of mouth on the flick. Iron Man 2 will hurt Iron Man 3 at the boxoffice, I'm just not taking back that opinion/fact.

The fans of the film will get a sequel to it and thats honestly all they should care about but it doesn't change the fact that the movies legs were blah. Marvel isn't going to be crying over there 600+mil I'm sure. It will be one of the biggest hits of the year and Marvel should celebrate that but if Captain America and Thor get the same reception their movies are screwed because they won't be sequels to a 318million dollar well liked film. I hope Marvel is happy with the penical of their success because unless the next one is in 3D is won't be making 600mil. They should keep the budget the same and not spend too much on the Avengers either.

And on to the Boxoffice!

Iron Man 2 has officially fallen behind it's predecessor. There is no doubt that it won't make as much as the first domestically.

The first flick had made 309.2mil at the same point after a 2.3mil weekend. This one has made 308.2mil and is coming off of a 0.6 hundered thousand weekend.

The overseas gross is impressive, especially for a comicbook movie. I mean all 3 Spider-Man movies and TDK are the only comicbook movies to hit the 300mil mark overseas.

 

[Tony Stark]

I was talking about Marvel keeping their expectations in check for Avengers, given Iron Man apparently finding it's ceiling, large overlap in fandom among the potential franchises, Captain America and Thor being unproven at present, and Hulk struggling to find a movie formula that works. Heck, the buildup to The Avengers apparently had no effect on IM2.

I tend to think that Marvel's going to budget The Avengers like it's IM3, with a budget in the lower $200 million range. I do think it's likely that they will go 3D, but I also think a whole bunch of unimpressive 3D has the format rapidly losing its luster.

Most of the unimpressive 3D was postproduction converts, like Airbender and Clash of the Titans. If they film using the 3D process it won't look as bad as those, however it does make it a more expensive process.

I do think that people will soon get sick of the "everything 3D" craze, as both the next Harry Potter and the next Narnia installments are set for 3D, and when 2012 rolls around, the fad could quickly change.

I think the home format 3D is doomed. There are competing technologies, and the glasses for the process cost over 150 dollars a pair, in edition to having to buy a new TV and blue ray to support the process.

I guess we'll see what happens as it seems like Cap is going to be the first film they tag with 3D. I really hope that Thor does not get a post production convert, as those to date have looked awful, but the one thing I'll agree that Marvel/Paramount is thinking is that had they post converted IM2, it probably would have grossed close to 400 mil domestically and well over 700 million world wide. That more than anything is what's driving the 3D craze.